Microsoft Xbox Roadmap (2013) (VGleaks)

[RancidLunchmeat]

I am 100% certain that MS's original plans for the console had it only able to play games when online, with the only things working offline being the network troubleshooter and Bluray playback.

This is the meaning of the 'always connected' description that has been present in the leaked roadmap and even in the Dec 11 pastebin (which first mentioned the 1.2TF GPU) and also present in the XDK description as vgleaks posted.

Now, this is a software limitation and can be changed, however if they have changed it, it would be recently - say the last month or two.

So, you're 100% sure that you are correct but if you're wrong it's not because you're wrong, it's because MS changed their plans.

Got it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So, you're 100% sure that you are correct but if you're wrong it's not because you're wrong, it's because MS changed their plans.

Got it.

It may sound like a cop out when phrased like that, but if (((interference))) has a really good source that he trusts 100% and has proven him/herself right time and again, then it makes sense to trust his information and interpret accordingly. It's possible to have a source that's 100% accurate but be a few months behind the decision makers' current plans, and get caught like. Heck, you could have been best mates with a Sony 1st party high-rank developer and been posting adamantly on the internet, "PS4 has only 4GBs GDDR5. Trust me on this!" with complete confidence in your information and been caught out by the 8 GB announcement. You could also have said in response to the February Edge rumours of 8GB, "I trust my contact. I'm not wrong that PS4 has 4 GBs, and if it's announced with 8 GBs, that'll be a recent change," just as (((interference))) is doing, and been 100% legitimate.

That's why I consider discussion of rumour origins somewhat pointless. Every rumour can be weighted on merit. Every rumour monger can be evaluated on past successes. As it doesn't much matter what changes any company does, because the only thing that really matters is what product launches, why even consider what changes happen why? That's just people playing this weird "I gotta be right" game that they do.

 

[function]

So, you're 100% sure that you are correct but if you're wrong it's not because you're wrong, it's because MS changed their plans.

If MS changed their plans then he wasn't wrong though, was he. He would have been 100% correct at the time.

 

[ERP]

It may sound like a cop out when phrased like that, but if (((interference))) has a really good source that he trusts 100% and has proven him/herself right time and again, then it makes sense to trust his information and interpret accordingly. It's possible to have a source that's 100% accurate but be a few months behind the decision makers' current plans, and get caught like. Heck, you could have been best mates with a Sony 1st party high-rank developer and been posting adamantly on the internet, "PS4 has only 4GBs GDDR5. Trust me on this!" with complete confidence in your information and been caught out by the 8 GB announcement. You could also have said in response to the February Edge rumours of 8GB, "I trust my contact. I'm not wrong that PS4 has 4 GBs, and if it's announced with 8 GBs, that'll be a recent change," just as (((interference))) is doing, and been 100% legitimate..

The reason I don't always take rumors from even strong sources as reliable, is they always involve interpretation, I could imagine someone seeing a powerpoint with always on always connected, and a leak ending up where we are.
I could see if devkits required an always on internet connection the same thing would happen.

The 14+4 rumor had a life of it's own, and I think that probably started from one line being taken out of context from a real document, then paraphrased by VGLeaks.

If they changed there mind it's irrelevant at some level nothing has been announced, though IMO if they have and they did it recently, it's very late to make that decision, because it would require OS changes and service software changes and they have to be close to getting the system software done if they expect to ship this year.

 

[liolio]

Nice examples. I had looked for something similar. Now apply a Surface design/motif & you have the Xbox 720 & Xbox Mini.

Tommy McClain

Well I would not be to enthusiastic and expect a significantly bigger form factor.
This thing like Intel next unit of computing, as low voltage CPU, a solid state drive, overall a really low power consumption.
Now the 360 burns from 70Watts to 90Watts, even with a shrink I don't see how they can get it in a really tiny box.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If they changed there mind it's irrelevant at some level nothing has been announced...

Right, and IMO that's basically where rumour discussion should end. "Oh, here's a rumour, maybe such and such?" "Oh, here's another one suggesting something-or-other." "Here's one, but it's highly implausible." No need to enter into the discussion as to how believable a rumour is other than context in trying to understand the product before its release. At this point it really doesn't matter whether Durango is always on to play solo games or not; the only point it matters is when the product's released. So to that rumour, people can respond, "no fear," and then move on, rather than argue over how it must be true and how evil MS are, or how it can't be true and how wrong the internet is.

I'm sure no matter which way the product turns out, there'll be people who didn't know the truth still feeling a sense of satisfaction that their blind guess was right.

Moving on from the discussion of the discussion to the discussion of the topic, I'm reminded of Acert's sig and I'm wondering how MS feel about VGLeaks and what their approach will be. Will they start to factor leaks into their communications strategy, or will they continue to treat leaks as immaterial to their plans? There is the option to sound the public out on ideas now, almost like asking a hypothetical questions. Want to gauge reaction to a game rental service or plastic ID card user security? "Leak" a rumour and collate response data. If you can't beat them, join them?

 

[Scott_Arm]

It's no secret why politicians will leak parts of bills to the media.

 

[GrimThorne]

The reason I don't always take rumors from even strong sources as reliable, is they always involve interpretation, I could imagine someone seeing a powerpoint with always on always connected, and a leak ending up where we are.
I could see if devkits required an always on internet connection the same thing would happen.

The 14+4 rumor had a life of it's own, and I think that probably started from one line being taken out of context from a real document, then paraphrased by VGLeaks.

If they changed there mind it's irrelevant at some level nothing has been announced, though IMO if they have and they did it recently, it's very late to make that decision, because it would require OS changes and service software changes and they have to be close to getting the system software done if they expect to ship this year.

Even the most inside source is receiving 2nd and 3rd hand information, and those bits have already passed through several interpretational filters. By the time it reaches us, the leak has been morphed into more than it is, or less than what it was. And then there's bias to consider, not every source is neutral, so they factor in their own agenda with positive/negative exaggerations.

I do know one thing.............I recognize when someone is trying to save face or walk gracefully in reverse. They learned something, something that THEY believe is true enough to try to get out in front of their own earlier extrapolations.

In the end it will be very interesting to learn what they got right and what they got wrong.

 

[XpiderMX]

I do know one thing.............I recognize when someone is trying to save face or walk gracefully in reverse. They learned something, something that THEY believe is true enough to try to get out in front of their own earlier extrapolations.

In the end it will be very interesting to learn what they got right and what they got wrong.

The weirdest thing about the vgleaks info is how they tried to explain the reason of "always online" confusion...

 

[expletive]

I do know one thing.............I recognize when someone is trying to save face or walk gracefully in reverse. They learned something, something that THEY believe is true enough to try to get out in front of their own earlier extrapolations.

In the end it will be very interesting to learn what they got right and what they got wrong.

Or, if I understand what you are implying, MS is just trying to stop the further spread of mis-information (i.e. before the mainstream media runs with it.)

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

If MS changed their plans then he wasn't wrong though, was he. He would have been 100% correct at the time.

Nope.

Sorry, you only get credit for being correct if you actually are correct.

Again, what was the rumor? The next Xbox will do THIS.. or require THIS. If it launches and it doesn't do THIS or require THIS than the rumor was wrong.

Regardless of what decisions or turns were made by the company along the way. If the decision has changed then obviously the decision wasn't actually made. Which means the rumor is and was false. I'm sure lots of things are being considered and have been considered both in terms of hardware spects, kinect integration, services provided, how to push ads to the consumer, etc.

Something that was discussed in 2011 but doesn't happen at launch in 2013 isn't a correct rumor.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Didn't someone here mention the idea of backcomp via HDMI in from your old 360? Definitely a nice feature. Edit: Wait, do you need this new Xbox mini to do this?

Yup, I did that in the Durango tech thread I believe when postulating as to a possible use for the HDMI in. A backwards compatability module could use that to stream the game through the Durango device while USB 3.0 would be all that is necessary to relay controller response from the Durango controllers as well as giving access to the optical drive on Durango. I didn't think it'd actually happen though.

And this is far more than just a backwards compatibility module. It's a full blow X360 minus the optical drive + some stuff to interoperate with Durango.

When I wrote the comment I had no access to vgleaks.

I was referring to the part where it mentions "always on" is required for any real functionality like the apple tv. An apple tv needs to be always on because only it has is 256-512 MB of RAM in it. The ideal that MS would force a DD only 360 consoles to be connected for basic functionality simply because it lacks a disc drive seemed illogical.

Depending on the 360 flash and Durango's HDD for local storage seemed more reasonable than artificially gimping a dd only 360.

There's also a high likelihood that the always online will be yet another layer to make sure that the game on the HDD wasn't hacked in somehow. When playing via accessing the optical drive in Durango, that can likely be used to authenticate ownership at game runtime. If it's just sitting on the HDD though, it's likely to require some kind of authentication every time the game is started, hence requiring an online connection.

As well, as it's a competitor to AppleTV and GoogleTV, there's probably things added to support IPTV, video streaming, etc. above and beyond what is currently available with X360. Someone buying it for those purposes will need to know that the console is required to be connected online in order to use it in such a way. Hence more emphasis on reinforcing the notion that the device needs to be always online.

In other words, since it can't be assumed that someone is buying it purely for playing X360 games on Durango it has to emphasize always online because that's the only way a standalone version will be able to install games as well as the only way it can verify that the machine is legally allowed to play the game on its HDD.

Right, and IMO that's basically where rumour discussion should end. "Oh, here's a rumour, maybe such and such?" "Oh, here's another one suggesting something-or-other." "Here's one, but it's highly implausible." No need to enter into the discussion as to how believable a rumour is other than context in trying to understand the product before its release. At this point it really doesn't matter whether Durango is always on to play solo games or not; the only point it matters is when the product's released. So to that rumour, people can respond, "no fear," and then move on, rather than argue over how it must be true and how evil MS are, or how it can't be true and how wrong the internet is.

I'm sure no matter which way the product turns out, there'll be people who didn't know the truth still feeling a sense of satisfaction that their blind guess was right.

Moving on from the discussion of the discussion to the discussion of the topic, I'm reminded of Acert's sig and I'm wondering how MS feel about VGLeaks and what their approach will be. Will they start to factor leaks into their communications strategy, or will they continue to treat leaks as immaterial to their plans? There is the option to sound the public out on ideas now, almost like asking a hypothetical questions. Want to gauge reaction to a game rental service or plastic ID card user security? "Leak" a rumour and collate response data. If you can't beat them, join them?

Hehe, sort of like Charlie from SemiAccurate. His sources are also always 100% correct. But things often change between when his sources give him information and when the piece of hardware he's reporting on actually launches. Or his sources may not have gotten the information correct or may have interpreted them incorrectly.

In other words, beware of reporting on leaks, rumors, etc. even if you trust your source 100% and assume that his information is 100% correct. Because by the time a product launches, it may not actually reflect that information 100%.

That's always a danger with 2nd hand information. And in our case with Durango and PS4 leaks. We're getting something like 4th and 5th hand information.

Regards,
SB

 

[Rangers]

yet the ps4 rumors were pretty much 100% spot on with incredible precision, except the 8GB RAM thing, which everybody and their dog knows was an extremely late change (third party devs have now publicly said they didn't even know until Sony announced it to the world at their event). And lets not forget we had plenty of people poo-pooing the (correct) PS4 rumors before the Sony show.

And we even had rumors of the 8GB change beforehand too, though I among others dismissed them. So it's not like that was totally out of the blue either.

But I agree about Charlie, his stuff has just been nuts.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

yet the ps4 rumors were pretty much 100% spot on with incredible precision, except the 8GB RAM thing, which everybody and their dog knows was an extremely late change (third party devs have now publicly said they didn't even know until Sony announced it to the world at their event). And lets not forget we had plenty of people poo-pooing the (correct) PS4 rumors before the Sony show.

And we even had rumors of the 8GB change beforehand too, though I among others dismissed them. So it's not like that was totally out of the blue either.

But I agree about Charlie, his stuff has just been nuts.

Really? The 14+4 split? The additional "compute module" that was discrete from the CPU? Etc. All of which I'm sure the sources thought were 100% correct according to what they heard. But ended up being a misinterpretation of information. And the 8 GB change is a perfect example of something actually changing versus not getting the correct information or not passing on the information correctly due to misinterpretation, etc.

Regards,
SB

 

[Rangers]

Really? The 14+4 split? The additional "compute module" that was discrete from the CPU? Etc. All of which I'm sure the sources thought were 100% correct according to what they heard. But ended up being a misinterpretation of information. And the 8 GB change is a perfect example of something actually changing versus not getting the correct information or not passing on the information correctly due to misinterpretation, etc.

Regards,
SB

Yes and yet we knew the GPU flop rating down to 3 decimal places. CPU was exactly correct with no deviation so far. Memory layout and type and speed, exact (176 GB/s). Come on

And we still dont know that 14+4 is wrong, unless you are going on more rumors Actually dont mean to put him on the spot but ERP's post above is basically the nail in the coffin on that one for me.

I think that amongst rumors, some are bound to be wrong. But in the main the PS4 specs were shockingly accurate.

It's the same with Durango, we have rumors flying right and left with regards to always online. If they announce it as always online, we wont be too shocked will we? That doesn't mean it must be always online, or they cant look at this backlash and change it behind the scenes (in which case, we'll probably get more rumors to that effect )

Or the Verge rumor today, about Ryse, Zombie game, Family game, and Forza 5 at launch.

Put all the rumors together and we're likely to know a lot about Durango before it's revealed. But not every last rumor will be correct either and there will be some surprises. It's basically the same before every E3 too...

 

[(((interference)))]

The reason I don't always take rumors from even strong sources as reliable, is they always involve interpretation, I could imagine someone seeing a powerpoint with always on always connected, and a leak ending up where we are.
I could see if devkits required an always on internet connection the same thing would happen.

I agree that interpretation is a source of confusion in many rumours, however my source has 1st hand knowledge of the device with a senior technical background, I have asked numerous times about it (as I first thought it couldn't possible be true - this was before the Edge article came out) but their statements leave no room for such misinterpretation (ie only devkits requiring always on connections etc). So i'd be inclined to doubt them about as much as i'd be inclined to doubt you on something PS4 related.

Now, say with other rumoured features, like used game blocking I am not so sure what their plans are (besides it will have the capability to block used games) so will not push the point.

But the 'always online' thing being as Edge, Kotaku, The Verge? bgassassin, those two industry exec's have it (ie being unable to play when offline) I am 100% certain that this was MS's plan for the system and any change would be a fairly recent one.

 

[(((interference)))]

His source says the Xbox TV has that functionality & since the new rumors state that the Xbox Mini is now fulfilling that role as the Apple TV competitor he thinks that the Xbox Mini has that same functionality. A stretch to be honest. Just because the Xbox TV is delayed(according to rumors) doesn't automatically mean that Xbox Mini will support all its features this year. I do agree that 360 dashboard will be updated across all SKUs this fall, but if the latest rumors are true then the Xbox Mini will have new functionality not available on older SKUs. According to the rumor it's only with regards to backward compatibility. I don't think they will support Win8 Metro apps on the Xbox Mini. I think that's only for Durango & Yuma.

Tommy McClain

From reading this article:
http://www.techradar.com/au/news/television/xbox-tv-set-top-box-rumored-en-route-for-2013-1114387

I really think vgleaks have conflated Xbox TV/Mini/Yuma with the Xbox 360 revision.

As MS's Apple TV competitor is Yuma not Xbox 361 - if Xbox 361 could be an Apple TV competitor, why would MS bother with Yuma?

 

[AzBat]

Why are still not using the original sources instead of that TechRadar crap? Here are the articles they are sourcing from...

VG Leaks - 4/10/13 - http://www.vgleaks.com/microsoft-xbox-roadmap-2013/

The Verge - 4/8/13 - http://www.theverge.com/2013/4/8/4196336/microsoft-mediaroom-iptv-sale-ericsson

Official Microsoft Blog - 4/8/13 - http://blogs.technet.com/b/microsoft_blog/archive/2013/04/08/mediaroom-and-our-tv-journey.aspx

TechRadar is using that The Verge article as a source for its Xbox Mini info, which is funny since it's earlier than the VG Leaks article by 2 days & The Verge never even talked about the Xbox Mini or Xbox TV. So how can The Verge say that the Xbox Mini is "based on Windows 8 with a focus on casual games and entertainment services" when it never even mentions Windows 8 & Xbox?

Plus, Paul Thurott was the one that posted on his podcast the rumor that "Yumo/Yuma" was not happening or may be delayed until next year.

The VG Leaks article doesn't talk about a 2014 launch of Xbox Mini, nor 2013 for that matter, but the whole article is about Microsoft's 2013 Xbox roadmap.

If anybody is conflated the Xbox Mini with Xbox TV it seems to be TechRadar. Yes, I will grant you that the VG Leaks Xbox Mini rumor does have some similarities to Xbox TV, but the Xbox TV rumor has been around for a long time, but we just received a new rumor 6 days ago that "they're not making it. They may make one in the future, but it's not happening this year." It seems logical that they were at one time considering the Xbox TV, but are not any longer & it's logical to assume that the 361 is getting some of its features.

Tommy McClain

 

[AzBat]

Well I would not be to enthusiastic and expect a significantly bigger form factor.
This thing like Intel next unit of computing, as low voltage CPU, a solid state drive, overall a really low power consumption.
Now the 360 burns from 70Watts to 90Watts, even with a shrink I don't see how they can get it in a really tiny box.

I wasn't considering size by looking at those photos for a potential stacking design. Just a simple "what if" on it's design. Personally I don't think I really care either way what it looks like or how big it is. I'm sure it will look fine & come in a modest size. Not expecting anything worse than the original Xbox 360 size & looks.

Tommy McClain

 

[(((interference)))]

Why are still not using the original sources instead of that TechRadar crap? Here are the articles they are sourcing from...

Because they are saying Xbox Mini = Xbox TV/Yuma and vgleaks are saying Xbox Mini = Xbox 360 revision. From what vgleaks have said of Xbox Mini i'm inclined to believe they're talking about the Xbox TV box and are conflating it with Xbox 361

And it's not logical that they can delay Xbox TV and have Xbox 361 in its place. As if they could do that, why bother with XTV in the first place?

No, XTV was put on backburner most likely because Durango was going to slip (from what i've heard).
As both share more or less the same system OS, with the difficulty being in porting it to ARM from x86, MS probably just moved all the engineers working on Xbox TV to Durango to get it out as scheduled.