Mercury Research on graphics market share

[Dave Baumann]

It looks like everyone's favourite POS is contributing to these numbers!

 

[Sabastian]

It looks like everyone's favourite POS is contributing to these numbers!

heh, actually the 9200 isn't that bad of a low end card comparatively speaking of course. I've always thought that ATi was getting the shity end of the stick WRT the low end. NV has for years been making piles of OEM deals off the MX variety of cards that are DX7. While ATi has been providing the 9200 for the same market segment and it supports DX8 and PS1.4.. bla bla bla.. Anyhow it is good to finally see ATi be king shit of turd mountain. What now?

 

[Schadenfroh]

It looks like everyone's favourite POS is contributing to these numbers!

heh, actually the 9200 isn't that bad of a low end card comparatively speaking of course. I've always thought that ATi was getting the shity end of the stick WRT the low end. NV has for years been making piles of OEM deals off the MX variety of cards that are DX7. While ATi has been providing the 9200 for the same market segment and it supports DX8 and PS1.4.. bla bla bla.. Anyhow it is good to finally see ATi be king shit of turd mountain. What now?

could be talking about the 9200SE, now that is a craptacular card

 

[Sabastian]

It looks like everyone's favourite POS is contributing to these numbers!

heh, actually the 9200 isn't that bad of a low end card comparatively speaking of course. I've always thought that ATi was getting the shity end of the stick WRT the low end. NV has for years been making piles of OEM deals off the MX variety of cards that are DX7. While ATi has been providing the 9200 for the same market segment and it supports DX8 and PS1.4.. bla bla bla.. Anyhow it is good to finally see ATi be king shit of turd mountain. What now?

could be talking about the 9200SE, now that is a craptacular card

Yeah the 64 bit variety of any low end card sucks. Imagine a 64 bit 5200 doing DX9 tricks.. heh. or the 64 bit version of the MX cards.. great stuff.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

OEM contracts, aggressive marketing, Power requirements, marketing deals, Are more likely to have a bearing on the desktop/OEM marketshare than the Xbox2 will. I dont think the Xbox itself had much of an effect on the current market share either. (it did have a bearing on profits) Going by such logic. Nvidia should have been on top these past 2 years. But they really werent.

Exactly, but my point is that Nvidia think it's okay to ignore these things. Even after the NV3x debacle, they are still producing OEM unfriendly cards (and not making the OEM sales), still claim that XBox 2 was not business they really wanted, alienating the enthusiast market with their marketing and cheating, going their own way instead of following Direct X, etc. Sure you can say "Nvidia's next card might be really great", but that's no more valid than me replying that ATI's next card will be better regardless.

My point is that if you look at what Nvidia have been doing for the last couple of years, and how they seem to be running their business, there is no reason to think that they have changed their business practices or that they will stop making the kinds of mistakes they have been making for the last few years.

If the corporate culture that has led them to this point has not changed (and there has been little or no change of the management at the top of the company) then they will continue to run the company in the same way.

For ATI, it basically took the aquisition of ArtX and the effective takeover of ATI by ArtX management to effect the massive changes to ATI's corporate culture that have seen its market share, mindshare, profits, quality of products and software increase dramatically over the last few years. I see no evidence of that same evolution of Nvidia's culture to respond to the new industry landscape, and that is probably the single core factor that triggered all the subsequent problems that have put Nvidia in the problematic position it finds itself in today.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

It looks like everyone's favourite POS is contributing to these numbers!

So much for Nvidia "winning in the low end" where the volume money is.

 

[jimmyjames123]

Looks like BZB is going to have a party tonight, and will wear his ATI t-shirt too!

The results are not too surprising. NV is trying to move as fast as possible to transition from NV3x to NV4x, for obvious reasons. The NV4x architecture top-to-bottom is solid enough to carry them for a while I think.

 

[digitalwanderer]

NV is trying to move as fast as possible to transition from NV3x to NV4x, for obvious reasons. The NV4x architecture top-to-bottom is solid enough to carry them for a while I think.

The nV4x may be solid enough to carry them, but the damage they did to themselves with the FX fiasco will be a long time healing...it takes time to re-establish trust and image.

And the lack of any OEM deals is really gonna hurt 'em.

 

[ellingsen1]

According to NV's press release at least one segment went their way in the latest report.

"NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA), a worldwide leader in graphics and digital media processors, today reported that the rapid adoption of the Company's leading family of 3D graphics processing units (GPUs) has moved NVIDIA into the number one spot in the Microsoft(R) DirectX(R) 9.0, or high-end performance segment of the market, rising from 26% share in the second quarter of 2004 to 64% share in the third quarter of 2004 according to leading market analyst firm, Mercury Research."

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/i...mp;script=410&layout=9&item_id=636560

 

[jimmyjames123]

New architecture, different times. It really doesn't make sense to look at the FX past to predict the future. NV is now giving consumers a much more forward looking and powerful architecture, customizeability over optimization settings, SM 3.0 top-to-bottom, SLI on enthusiast models in the future.

I imagine that there will be significantly more OEM interest once NV starts to ramp up production of PCIe 6200 and 6600 cards. Dell even started carrying 6800GTO PCIe models, which is a start.

Power and heat on the NV4x cards are going to be less and less of an issue once production moves to .11 and lower. In fact, power and heat is really not a significant issue now on all NV4x cards excluding the dual slot 6800 Ultras.

OEM's came to learn that it would not be desireable to exclude R3xx cards from their lineup, and they are going to come to the same conclusions with the NV4x cards.

 

[whql]

OEM's came to learn that it would not be desireable to exclude R3xx cards from their lineup, and they are going to come to the same conclusions with the NV4x cards.

The performance and compatibility issues were painfully evident with the FX series, despite the marketing there are not really any such compelling elements to nv4x in relation to ati's line - things are a lot closer now.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

Looks like BZB is going to have a party tonight, and will wear his ATI t-shirt too!

Get a life JJ!

The results are not too surprising. NV is trying to move as fast as possible to transition from NV3x to NV4x, for obvious reasons. The NV4x architecture top-to-bottom is solid enough to carry them for a while I think.

Problem is that's not what the OEMs are saying, even at the low end. When NV40 was launched, we got the same predictions that NV40 would "bring Nvidia back to the top", as if all Nvidia had to do was not suck as badly as they did with NV30/35.

Its not that simple any more because ATI have built themselves up into an impressive competitor and changed the landscape of the whole industry. Nvidia doesn't seem to be responding well and in fact helped ATI's resurgance by making the mistakes they have for the last few years.

 

[digitalwanderer]

New architecture, different times. It really doesn't make sense to look at the FX past to predict the future. NV is now giving consumers a much more forward looking and powerful architecture, customizeability over optimization settings, SM 3.0 top-to-bottom, SLI on enthusiast models in the future.

No argument about the facts there, but the public's perception of nVidia is more what I was talking about.

It's an image problem thing, and they've no one to thank but their ownselves. They dug themselves into a pretty deep hole, they're going to take a while digging themselves out of it.

The nV4x is a good chip and is a product they could do it with, I'm just interested to see what they do to try and improve their image.

<OEM stuff getting better for nVidia in the future stuff>

True there too, but only if they come out with it in a timely fashion and it beats or at least competes with ATi's offerings...I guess it's a "time will tell" thingy.

Interesting to hear of the high-end grab by nVidia, but not all that surprising. Between the X800 pro and the 6800 GT the GT is the superior card and wins the pricepoint there pretty convincingly***. The X800 XT was too hard to get for too long, the GT grabbed the dominant field position.




***-With the possible exception of the X800 pro VIVO flashed to 16-pipes, that puppy can take a GT pretty easy....but since there isn't a guarantee on the flash I can't really use it as a price point card. (But it's what I got meself. )

 

[jimmyjames123]

The performance and compatibility issues were painfully evident with the FX series

Performance was the problem for the enthusiast users in some games, not really compatibility.

despite the marketing there are not really any such compelling elements to nv4x in relation to ati's line - things are a lot closer now.

Marketing is a key component that OEM's consider when introducing a new product. It looks really good to advertise your lower end graphics cards as, say, SM 3.0 compliant. We are also starting to see that some features such as FP16 blending on the higher end NV4x cards are starting to become useful to a certain extent, so the new featureset does actually seem to be useable in some cases.

Problem is that's not what the OEMs are saying, even at the low end.

How do you know that? The Geforce 6200 and 6600 cards have just barely been announced, let alone produced in large quantities, at this time. Any OEM would love to flaunt the relatively full feature set, including full support for SM 3.0, on their low end desktop graphics cards.

Its not that simple any more because ATI have built themselves up into an impressive competitor and changed the landscape of the whole industry.

This sounds more like words from a servile flatterer than anything of substance. NV's accomplishments in the graphics industry over the years have been quite impressive, by any measure, and undoubtedly they have "changed the landscape of the industry". So what? The main thing that matters is what they do moving forward, not what they did in the past.

Nvidia doesn't seem to be responding well and in fact helped ATI's resurgance by making the mistakes they have for the last few years.

LOL, they don't seem to be responding well? I can't imagine how a company could respond in a much better way than arguably provide the most forward-looking and feature-filled cards in the industry, all while drastically increasing performance and features over prior generations. Sure, they had a rough time with one generation, but that is now in a sense history

 

[Graphics_Krazy]

NVIDIA's large jump in the DX9 highend segment looks interesting.

So they have lost all the low margin, but high volume business and replaced it with high margin, lower volume business. This should explain why sales expectations are up for them.

This should mean that NVIDIA's profit margin should shoot considerably up next quarter doesnt it?

Especially since they said they've improved the margins on their NV4x products (over the lower margin NV3x products)

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

How do you know that? The Geforce 6200 and 6600 cards have just barely been announced, let alone produced in large quantities, at this time. Any OEM would love to flaunt the relatively full feature set, including full support for SM 3.0, on their low end desktop graphics cards.

Just look at the market share and profit reports over the last few years, including the recent Mercury report that we're discussing. OEMs don't want cards they can't get and that cost more due to extra cooling and power requirements. They don't want to pay for SM3.0 that is unused and unusable on the first generation product. OEMs have already been voting with their wallets, just like the retail customers.

This sounds more like words from a servile flatterer than anything of substance.

Ahh, the true JJ comes out - the insulting Nvidia apologist.

Nvidia was the only game in town for many years, pretty much as soon as 3DFX decided to make their own cards. That is no longer the case, yet Nvidia still act like they have no competition. Remember, the man who runs Nvidia doesn't consider graphics as their core business or ATI as a competitor. How's that for "forward looking"?

NV's accomplishments in the graphics industry over the years have been quite impressive, by any measure, and undoubtedly they have "changed the landscape of the industry". So what? The main thing that matters is what they do moving forward, not what they did in the past.

For someone who doesn't want to take the past into account, why are you talking about Nvidia's past accomplishments? I'm not talking about the dominance of the graphics card market that ATI had long before there was an Nvidia.

As for looking at the past, I'm not - I'm looking at what Nvdia are doing *now* - or can't you see that and prefer to dream about a time when Nvidia get their "rightful" place back without doing anything to earn it?

LOL, they don't seem to be responding well? I can't imagine how a company could respond in a much better way than arguably provide the most forward-looking and feature-filled cards in the industry, all while drastically increasing performance and features over prior generations. Sure, they had a rough time with one generation, but that is now in a sense history

Yeah, it was a great response to a revitalised ATI:

1. NV30 - so far behind schedule, poor IQ, and poorly performing, it was cancelled and now Nvidia disowns any mention of it. Benchmark cheats and marketing lies. Alienates enthusiasts. Nvidia OEMs break contracts and start to use ATI products. CG and Cinematic Computing is marketed furiously

2. NV35 - poorly performing, poor IQ low sales, short life. Benchmark cheats and marketing lies. Alienates enthusiasts. Even more Nvidia OEMs break contracts and start to use ATI products.

3. NV40 - massive improvement by taking the same design philosophies as ATI used since R300. Poor availability, shunned by OEMs due to high heat and power requirements. Nvidia tells the market that graphics are no longer their core business, ATI is not a competitor, and they'll only bother to support their customers with new drivers once or twice a year. Nvidia market share, mindshare and profits drop dramatically, especially once the previously hidden amortisation costs are taken into account. CG is canned.

Way to go Nvidia! Jimmyjames says you are doing a great job! Don't change a thing!

 

[Fodder]

No argument about the facts there, but the public's perception of nVidia is more what I was talking about.

It's a non-issue. As much as sectors of the enthusiast community may feel betrayed by NVIDIA and profess to never trust them again, the public couldn't give a shit, and fact is they're selling as many 6800s as they can make. OEMs haven't picked up the 6800 probably due to power, heat and supply concerns, but just imagine what the 6200 (and to a lesser degree 6600) will do for their bottom line if they manage to get it out soon in quantity. The 5200 kept NVIDIA afloat single-handedly for a year and it was a piece of crap, while the 6200 has all the marketing buzzwords and the performance/features to back that up.

edit: Here on B3D, which I think you'll agree is one of the more 'informed' forums on the net, and whose denizens are far more likely to care about driver cheats than those of most sites, 6800 owners outnumber X800 owners by over 50%. The much vaunted consumer backlash just ain't happening.

 

[digitalwanderer]

The 5200 kept NVIDIA afloat single-handedly for a year and it was a piece of crap, while the 6200 has all the marketing buzzwords and the performance/features to back that up.

Yes, but it also has the 5200's reputation preceeding it which I think will affect its sales.

You may be right, I may be wrong; time will tell.

 

[Fodder]

Yes, but it also has the 5200's reputation preceeding it which I think will affect its sales.

In that case, 5200 sales should have been heavily influenced by the reputation of that card of cards, the Geforce 4 "I'm not really a Geforce 4" MX.

 

[digitalwanderer]

In that case, 5200 sales should have been heavily influenced by the reputation of that card of cards, the Geforce 4 "I'm not really a Geforce 4" MX.

True dat, but I'm thinking that there wasn't enough time for the MX shame to really sink in yet and when the 5200 came out nVidia's PR did such a bang-up job with the whole "dx9 for $99" tagline that it was ignored in all the excitement since 'nVidia had turned around and produced a bargain dx9 part that could perform'.

I think the 5200 along with the associated woes of the FX line kind of drove the point home though, and I think the backlash is here.

The only way I see that not happening is if SM 3.0 becomes a big button-feature of some new games that come out so that they can push that hard, but unless they get that I don't see it happening.