Jon Peddie white paper on Vista/graphics

[kemosabe]

"In 2005, 63% of the 203 million computers shipped (desktop, notebook, and servers) were equipped with last-generation integrated graphics controllers, just the opposite ratio from 2003; the turning point came in Q3’04 when integrated graphics hit parity with discrete graphics chips (GPUs) that are used on AIBs.

JPR estimates there are close to a billion PCs in use today, most of which are equipped with antiquated integrated graphics, or old-fashioned AIBs (without shaders).

Over 600 million PCs shipped in the last three years and are still in service. These are the ones that are most logical to upgrade with the new Vista operating system.
However, because of the low graphics performance of integrated graphics chips found in most of the PCs, they would not be able to take advantage of the richness and benefits of Vista’s new Aero GUI, and the graphics-based operating system would be unusable on most of these PCs.

The simple solution, of course, is to add a modern graphics AIB, and we believe the add-in-board suppliers are counting on that and predict we will see big promotional campaigns to educate the users of this low-cost solution for tapping into the power of Vista Aero.

JPR found that there were $2.7 billion worth of add-in boards (AIBs) sold in just Q4 of 2005, and almost $10 billion for the entire year. Vista could, if the consumers get the message, raise that market value significantly in 2007 when it ships in full volume."


http://www.jonpeddie.com/special/WhitePapers/WindowsVista_03-16-06.pdf.zip

Rather compelling case for the end of the integrated GPU onslaught.

 

[Ailuros]

Rather compelling case for the end of the integrated GPU onslaught.

I wouldn't be too hasty with such conclusions

 

[Rys]

INTEL HAVE AN SM3.0 IGP NORTHBRIDGE USING POWERVR TECHNOLOGY OH MY GOD

 

[Geo]

I don't see businesses doing this, and they have to be a huge chunk of that 600M. They are much more likely to wait for their next upgrade cycle and then buy machines with Vista installed and all the bits and pieces to support it. The question is, how good will IGP be for that. NV and ATI do both seem to see an opportunity to grow discrete into that market, and they ought to have as good an idea as anyone how well IGP can accelerate the UI. Possibly they are counting on business apps over time taking more advantage of the closer tie with 3D power beyonnd what IGP can handle comfortably. Dunno.

Then there's the AGP systems in the older section of that "last three years". Toss them out --I don't see too many of them buying a new AGP card for Vista. Then there's the folks who already have SM2/3 cards, and we think they're okay anyway, right? So it looks to me like that number gets whittled down quickly.

 

[Entropy]

I don't see businesses doing this, and they have to be a huge chunk of that 600M. They are much more likely to wait for their next upgrade cycle and then buy machines with Vista installed and all the bits and pieces to support it.

Very sensible.
Also, most computers sold these days are portables, without any option for upgrading the gfx at all.

So while Vista probably will drive low grade gfx upgrades to some extent, I wouldn't bet on a big rush. Besides, the other mechanism - users being reluctant to install Vista due to their platform being unsuitable - is working against upgrades in general. Impossible to say how it will all balance out.

 

[Maintank]

I dont see how the majority of that userbase will

A. Bother to upgrade from WinXP to Vista, and if they do
B. Bother getting an addin GPU.

I dont think they will be smart enough to do either of the above and will instead simply go and buy a new Vista computer off the shelf.

Business's on the other hand will simply let their upgrade cycles deal with this rather inconsequential dilema.

 

[Razor1]

I don't see businesses doing this, and they have to be a huge chunk of that 600M. They are much more likely to wait for their next upgrade cycle and then buy machines with Vista installed and all the bits and pieces to support it. The question is, how good will IGP be for that. NV and ATI do both seem to see an opportunity to grow discrete into that market, and they ought to have as good an idea as anyone how well IGP can accelerate the UI. Possibly they are counting on business apps over time taking more advantage of the closer tie with 3D power beyonnd what IGP can handle comfortably. Dunno.

Then there's the AGP systems in the older section of that "last three years". Toss them out --I don't see too many of them buying a new AGP card for Vista. Then there's the folks who already have SM2/3 cards, and we think they're okay anyway, right? So it looks to me like that number gets whittled down quickly.

Well this is where turbocache cards will come in, low cost, crap descrete cards just to run Windows Vista

 

[Guden Oden]

Today's low-end boards aren't nearly as crap as they used to actually. My dad's Dell Dimension 5000 has an ATi X400 in it, it runs doom just fine with everything turned on, as long as you keep the rez down. And it runs WoW fine too, and you don't even need to turn the rez down all that much either!

The problem is mainly that many people think you have to game at a bazillion * gajillion pixel resolution and nothing else. That's not the case.

 

[Ailuros]

SoB LOL