Japanese developers comment on X360 development

[Acert93]

I'll vouch for Scooby here.

Cool, just wondering why you guys had info different than me Usually GS will have a "revision" notice--very bad form for a publishing company to revise content without a notice. Oh wait, they are not a real publishing company!

 

[Guden Oden]

However, the plain old DVD drive might cut the life span of the x360 short. However, maybe that's MS plan. They want to shorten the life span of the console, so that Sony can't (wouldn't want to) compete. If I was a betting man, I would wager that MS will release xbox 720 way before Sony will release PS4.

That tactic is a good way for MS to "Sega" its way out of the market. They also won't be making much money either, which is the real game in the console business after all. It's not, I repeat, NOT, to provide the coolest tech for the gearheads. It's to cost-reduce your hardware as much as possible to maximize profits over the lifetime of your product, and you certainly won't be able to do that if it's killed off early in the product cycle. You'd also have to spend more money on (by now VERY) costly R&D to develop your new box, that you won't then cost-reduce properly, etc.

Customers will also rebel if the hardware is made obsolete too quickly and too often. And with good reason. As happened with Sega.

 

[Acert93]

I agree Guden.

I think the tendancy of hardcore gamers/early adopters is to focus on certain aspects of a design and what it does, or does not, do for them in relation to their "technological wet dreams". The bottom of the line is offering the best experience for all consumers (NOT just hard core gamers) and to do so in a way that is profitable over the long haul. There are always compromises to be made in that regards because we are talking about a $300 console that needs to be less than $100 to manufacture in 4 years.

----

The Ruby/Assasin video is the best realtime demo I have seen yet for the next gen consoles. Better than Oblivion, Gears of War, and PGR3 in my opinion. It seems to share the best of all the graphical features from each of the best looking titles, rolled up into one clean package.

What really stood out to me was the lighting and the shadowing. I wish every game looked that good. They are using every trick in the book, yet on the other hand nothing seemed out of whack. I was impressed.

And while the textures were very detailed, the art direction fit the technology demo, and the special effects were spot on, the next most important thing after lighting/shadowing to me was the detail in the models. He said the Ruby was 1M. Whether that was total or per second he did not clarify (he seemed vague to me), but it was really clear to me that she was very detailed. Ditto the cybord lady. Unlike the big monster on GOW that has the chains modeled to the skin, this lady had a LOT of detail and felt "3D" with all the hoses. Maybe they were using a lot of normal maps, but I don't care. It looked really really good with the lighting.

Another thing that stood out was the animation. Very smooth. Some of the clunky MOCAP pre-canned stuff looked "stuff" (like the 360 windmill kick) but that had to do more with how it was captured. Overall everything was smooth and the environment AND the characters seemed VERY alive.

The question is... how long must we wait to see a REAL 360 game begin to approach this graphical fidelity?

 

[TrungGap]

That tactic is a good way for MS to "Sega" it's way out of the market. They also won't be making much money either, which is the real game in the console business after all. It's not, I repeat, NOT, to provide the coolest tech for the gearheads. It's to cost-reduce your hardware as much as possible to maximize profits over the lifetime of your product, and you certainly won't be able to do that if it's killed off early in the product cycle. You'd also have to spend more money on (by now VERY) costly R&D to develop your new box, that you won't then cost-reduce properly, etc.

Customers will also rebel if the hardware is made obsolete too quickly and too often. And with good reason. As happened with Sega.

Hey, Sega is my sensitive spot. Especially, with the bailing out of the Dreamcast...sigh.

Anyway, MS could be using it's strategy in defeating Netscape. The development cost of IE was not cheap and commercialization of it was not bring in any money. However, they stuck with the plan and killed off Netscape.

Xbox was only the first step. It was to build presence. x360 will force Sony to play along with MS timeframe. I don't think Sony would up the release date of PS3 without MS. MS knows that by getting x360 out this year, as oppose to next year, they will have to release *upgrade* or a new console by the time HD standards are set (and consumers embrace it). IMO, MS cut features to control cost, because their strategy is to good a enough product that's more disposable than Sony. They know they'll have to release the next gen console sooner than Sony.

Funny, remember when Nvidia and ATI tried to accelerate the video card market, by shortening their releases? In the end, both companies gotten hurt by that. So they revert by to longer release cycle. So maybe you're right.

 

[Jawed]

Assassin is the R520 techdemo, Ruby 3 as it were - made in collaboration with the RhinoFX studio. Ported over to XB360.

If you have an X800 graphics card in a PC you can download the first two parts of Ruby:

http://www.ati.com/developer/demos/rx800.html

http://www.ati.com/developer/demos/rx850.html

Otherwise download the movies.

Jawed

 

[scooby_dooby]

well the wonderful software on this forum ate aother on of my posts, so I'll try and sum it up.

In response to Acerts post RE: HDD

I think MS is taking a huge gamble by ditching the hardcore gamers and going after casuals. Lets face it, anyone who wants tthe coolest game system on the block will probably be looking at the PS3, unless the Xenos can outpower the RSX that would change things....but anyways..

SO theyv've basically lost the hardcore gamers support, X360 will be the lesser of the two consoles, and the hardcore gamer needs to have the best.

So they're gambling on the consumers...is that a good bet? How strong is the PS brandname still? Will they be able to pull the casuals away? Brand recognition is a very powerful thing (how many people still DEMAND intel processors?)

What if PS3 clearly outpowers X360? Hardcores will flock too it. Casuals will flock to it once the price drops simply because it's playstation. Where does that leave x360? 5-10million units sold and losing ground steadily?

The saving grace for X360 will be it's games, build a solid library of exclusives. Casuals go for the games, and it'll probably be 2007 before PS3 has a comparable library. So, like usual, I guess it all comes down to games....jeez what else is new hey!?

 

[Guden Oden]

Anyway, MS could be using it's strategy in defeating Netscape. The development cost of IE was not cheap and commercialization of it was not bring in any money. However, they stuck with the plan and killed off Netscape.

Your comparison is flawed. MS killed netscape because they

A: Made IE competitive with NS
B: Included IE for free with windows as standard
C: NS directors were a bunch of eejits

A and B were probably the most influential though.

Consoles don't work the same way as the browser wars, for starters, customers pay (a lot) of money for these things. They won't be happy if their $400 purchase is only good for 3 years or so. They expect more. And if price of x360 falls to $150 in 3 years and MS introduces an "x720" or whatever a year later, you'd feel majorly ripped off. We know software support for old hardware drops pretty much like a rock once a new console hits the streets (PS2 may be an exception due to its enormous market and the fact it'll continue to be manufactured and sold even after PS3 debuts). Won't be many xb titles coming out the year after x360 is released, that's for sure.

 

[scooby_dooby]

It's not totally flawed, this has always been MS's strategy in software battles.

Provide your software for free, just to get in the door, establish dominance...then let the raping begin.

Why couldn't they do the same with hardware? I know it's different, but MS has always had a strategy of taking losses in order to win the overall battle.

Why do you think windows 95/98 was ridiculously easy to pirate? to establish dominance, and now we get raped on $300 versions of MCE.

 

[Acert93]

Let me get this right... MS cut out the standard HDD, so gamers are going to go to a console... without a standard HDD? That does not make much sense! Anyhow...

First, it is about the games. Period. End of story. At the end of the day if you have 1 processor or 5 processors, it don't matter. Whoever has the most quality games that consumers want wins. PS2 was pretty much Xbox1's whipping boy, yet MS could only dream of the revenue Sony made. Sony had more games and more exclusives and more quality games... on a weaker, harder to program platform. Why? Sony was established and aggresive about getting support. Being out a year ahead of time also helped due to the library advantage. More games means more genres to appeal to more gamers. It really is that simple.

In that regards MS has scored a big win. EA is using the 360 as the base platform. Further EA has 25 titles in the pipe and 6 for launch. If the PS3 ships in the fall of 2006 in the US MS may have 100 games out on the market before the PS3 launches.

As for hardcore gamers, they are not all obsessed with stats in the way you are. And even many of those who are serious about stats realize that pure theoretical performance is not the same as real world performance.

Yes, there are some who are obsessed with numbers. For those fans there is Major Nelson and Major Ynos to spread FUD. And it ain't as cut and dry as you make it sound. An example (not to meant to be a low blow) was that you stated a 5,400 RPM Laptop drive should at least transfer 130MB/s. So even those obsessed with features and benchmarks are often looking at the wrong things with the wrong numbers. If you don't gather solid primary data before drawing conclusions then sure, they will be turned off by PR. But that goes both ways... enter Major Nelson and Major Ynos again. People will believe what they want to believe.

You want to believe the lack of the HDD is the end of the world and that somehow a laptop HDD is some super big advantage over a 12x DVD.

In the end you are missing the fact that MS is offering a premium bundle/value to hardcore gamers. They are not neglecting them, they are only opening the doors to non-hardcore gamers. You are too busy crying about this (in every thread!) that you miss more gamers = more games.

In the end, if MS has a $100 price advantage on Sony + a game library advantage early you cannot say MS is going to get creamed. The two systems are technically closer than the Xbox1/PS2 and Xenos, at 257M transistors is pretty close to RSX's 275M (minus video decoding). Add in the advanced features Xenos has (eDRAM, hardware tesselation) and effeciency (ATI claims their GPUs are 50-70% effecient, with Xenos being 95%) and this is not a clear cut win for either side from a technical GPU standpoint. CELL is pretty awesome but has some huge hurdles (a lot more cores to deal with, SPE hurdles, small SPE memory) and MS has been getting praise again for their tools.


In the end I think most consumers--even hardcore gamers--buy consoles for different reasons than you. You are more worried about a piece of hardware or a theoretical spec. Most consumers are interested in what that means for the onscreen product and how that provides them with a lot of quality content they want. The lack of a standard HDD--something they can buy--is not going to turn off hoards of gamers and push them to another platform without a standard HDD.

So MS pissed some fans off. By coming in $100 cheaper than they would have WITH a HDD also means they have replaced you with a lot of value conscious shoppers who would scoff at $400. $299, and not $399, has traditionally been the sweat spot.

I know $400 is too much for me, and I am a hardcore gamer.

 

[TrungGap]

Your comparison is flawed. MS killed netscape because they

A: Made IE competitive with NS
B: Included IE for free with windows as standard
C: NS directors were a bunch of eejits

A and B were probably the most influential though.

You're correct, however my argument isn't how MS killed of Netscape. I'm just point out that MS was willing to lose a lot of money to do so. Though with game console, MS will have to dig deeper...

Consoles don't work the same way as the browser wars, for starters, customers pay (a lot) of money for these things. They won't be happy if their $400 purchase is only good for 3 years or so. They expect more. And if price of x360 falls to $150 in 3 years and MS introduces an "x720" or whatever a year later, you'd feel majorly ripped off.

Unfortunately, it's going to happen...I can't see DVD lasting too long in the home entertainment. As we already seen, the VCR is dead...a lot of places don't sell 'em. I believe this will be the same for DVD in a couple of years. The margin on these devices aren't there anymore. Manufacturers will want to push newer technology, so they can have a better profit margin.

We know software support for old hardware drops pretty much like a rock once a new console hits the streets (PS2 may be an exception due to its enormous market and the fact it'll continue to be manufactured and sold even after PS3 debuts). Won't be many xb titles coming out the year after x360 is released, that's for sure.

I totally agree with you here. Currently, Dreamcast has one the largest homebrew community, however I can see xb will replace it. Currently, one of strongest reason to get an xb is because XBMC.

In summery, I agree with you that a console's life span is what allows a company to make money. Even though, there're rumors that x360 was scaled down and making money was the project top priority, however, we're dealing with MS here. They have a lot of money to burn...same can't be said for Sony.

Edit: typos

 

[Dave Baumann]

http://zdmedia.vo.llnwd.net/o1/1UP/zds_pmoore_x360_assassin_1500k.zip

... Assasin demo for XBOX360,watch the first frame of video /dashboard/ and 452.73 MB exe file loaded up,it takes .. 70 seconds !!!

When they ran this demo at E3 it took a reasonably long time to load as the shaders weren't compiled (being that it was ported directly from the PC version), which it why it took such a long time to load - it may be the case that its still having to compile the shaders on this demo, which is something that games obviously won't do.

 

[mckmas8808]

In the end, if MS has a $100 price advantage on Sony

Well we actually don't know what the PS3 will be priced at so...

 

[Acert93]

Well we actually don't know what the PS3 will be priced at so...

IF. I guess I forget to put enough in I offer up these.

IF, IF, IF, IF.

That said, KK is publical pointing to its expense. And going nose-to-nose with the core 360 it is very easy to assume it will be more expensive

• CELL has 50% more transistors than XeCPU
• BR is leaps and bounds more expensive than a DVD drive
• More expensive memory/configuration (XDR demands a premium over GDDR3, not to mention having two segments of memory will increase cost some, as well may affect price negotiations)
• Xenos has 10% more transistors but is also is in two smaller pieces each with redundant features and is clocked lower (and eDRAM takes up loss die space compared to logic) so it is close, if not a wash
• PS3 has 2 HDMI ports, a slew of media ports, Bluetooth, WiFi, extra ethernet ports, etc. There is also the question of what cables they will offer with the system. If they provide component and composit in every box that could add up too.

It is not as if only one or two pieces of PS3 hardware are more expensive. Almost every part in the machine is more expensive. Knowing Sony's financial position we can safely say they are not in a position to subsidize all these extra features for free to consumers. Based on what KK has said himself, expect to pay for these.

Or in his words, "Expect to work some overtime!"

 

[one]

• Xenos has 10% more transistors but is also is in two smaller pieces each with redundant features and is clocked lower (and eDRAM takes up loss die space compared to logic) so it is close, if not a wash

You have to ship 2 different cores to the packaging factory... also buying an eDRAM device, which is simply not available in Taiwan, won't be cheap, that's for sure. Then I think there's not much reason to assume the Xenos yield is far better when it's manufactured by the same people who manufacture R520.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Let me get this right... MS cut out the standard HDD, so gamers are going to go to a console... without a standard HDD? That does not make much sense! Anyhow...

No, they goto the console name playstation. The one ith the best graphics. The same one they've been buying for 10 years. The one with the next-gen media device, the built in wi-if etc. The x360 has nothign going for it except games.

As for hardcore gamers, they are not all obsessed with stats in the way you are. And even many of those who are serious about stats realize that pure theoretical performance is not the same as real world performance.

I'm obsessed with specs? No. I'm just a firm believer that HDD's offer only advantages, and no disadvantages. And that the consumer should no longer be forced to pay for memory cards in this day and age.

You want to believe the lack of the HDD is the end of the world and that somehow a laptop HDD is some super big advantage over a 12x DVD.

why would you even say that?You know taht complete nonsense. I don't believe the lack of HDD is the end of the world, I don't even believe it will have a large impact on the games. I simply defend inclusion off a HDD on principle, and also think it would help X360 compete with a seemingly overpowering PS3.

You are too busy crying about this (in every thread!) that you miss more gamers = more games.

That's garbage and you know it. Personally I am fine, the premium bundle is a steal, at $500 CAD it's teh same price as the original XBOX back when the US dolar was strong, so why do I care? I simply defend the usefulness of the HDD, and I think it was a mistake for MS to relinquish their key advantage.

You are more worried about a piece of hardware or a theoretical spec.

For the 15th time, I don't care PERSONALLY so quite trying to peg me as some specs junkie.

So MS pissed some fans off. By coming in $100 cheaper than they would have WITH a HDD also means they have replaced you with a lot of value conscious shoppers who would scoff at $400. $299, and not $399, has traditionally been the sweat spot.

Ya, as long as those consumers decide to forget the Playstation brandname right?

My point is that MS is BETTING on them pulling away casuals, and that this might be a bad gamble giving the casuals tendency too be EXTREMELY loyal to certain ingrained brand names. (Intel anyone?)

 

[Dave Baumann]

You have to ship 2 different cores to the packaging factory... also buying an eDRAM device, which is simply not available in Taiwan, won't be cheap, that's for sure.

Packaging two dies together is more expensive than packaging a single die, but the sharp end of the costs are still going to be the silicon - his point is correct that had this been a single die it would have yielded lower purely due to the average number of defects per wafer hitting more cores (overall).

Then I think there's not much reason to assume the Xenos yield is far better when it's manufactured by the same people who manufacture R520.

Yield is not the issue with R520 (nor is it an issue with Xenos for that matter); there are specific issues that affected R520 that have no bearing on Xenos.

 

[one]

Packaing two dies together is more expensive than packaging a single die, but the sharp end of the costs are still going to be the silicon - his point is correct that had this been a single die it would have yielded lower purely due to the average number of defects per wafer hitting more cores (overall).


Yield is not the issue with R520 (nor is it an issue with Xenos for that matter).

Well I'm not saying it's particularly bad, just assuming it'll be OK yield if not fantastic for the comparison with RSX

 

[Metalgearih]

Did anyone else notice the Enchant Arm paragraph edited?

They are missing the DVD read and pre-rendered sentences. Whats with that?

 

[Acert93]

No, they goto the console name playstation. The one ith the best graphics. The same one they've been buying for 10 years. The one with the next-gen media device, the built in wi-if etc. The x360 has nothign going for it except games.

Nonsense. You don't know that.

Sorry, you continue to rant. You continue to push forth false information about the HDD (everything from it being multitudes faster to it having non-variable speed even though the links I posted in the thread you responded to make it clear it does. Now this.

I am not one certainly to downplay how PS3 games may look, but your statement is to the extreme and without any proof... like most of your other points.

I'm obsessed with specs? No. I'm just a firm believer that HDD's offer only advantages, and no disadvantages.

Then you are NOT listening to other posters. There have been many examples given yet you ignore them. The bottom line is it did not help the PC load times and it did not get used well on Xbox1. Your advantages are mostly theoretically and do NOT apply to most casual gamers.

As for no disadvantages... COST. $50 for a component that barely impacts the game quality for most gamers is a huge disadvantage. If you cannot fairly represent the other side of an argument and make all encompassing statements like "no disadvantages" then don't expect kid gloves.

And that the consumer should no longer be forced to pay for memory cards in this day and age.

Wait, and this is one of those reasons people are going to the Sony platform? Wait, they have ALWAYS charged for this service!

You know taht complete nonsense. I don't believe the lack of HDD is the end of the world, I don't even believe it will have a large impact on the games. I simply defend inclusion off a HDD on principle, and also think it would help X360 compete with a seemingly overpowering PS3.

First you admitt it does little to impact games, but then you say it would help the 360 compete. How is something that offers little impact to most users--and those who benefit can get one!--will help compete? Simple answer it wont.

As for overpowering, do you live on the same planet? The designs are different, one more streamlined one more brute force. Different approaches, different designs. Yet those who have a grasp on the hardware tend to agree the gap is much closer this gen than last (and note the PS2 and GCN had games that looked as good as Xbox best games), and from a GPU perspective there is no way to say that the PS3 has a better GPU at this point. Xeno is more effecient and has eDRAM.

That's garbage and you know it.

Your actions and comments speak pretty loudly IMO. You quote off the wall SPECS that are outrageously high, you present apples-to-oranges, and make statements about hardware that is not true. And then conclude one is "best". In general best is relative. CELL is not better than an AMD64 or vice versa. They are different and do better in different areas. And yet without seeing final games you are declairing a winner about which is best in graphics or more powerful.

Xbox fan, Nintendo fan, Sony fan, etc... does not matter. It is the wrong approach and really misguided.

I simply defend the usefulness of the HDD, and I think it was a mistake for MS to relinquish their key advantage.

And the HDD is there for those who need it.

As for key advantage, I believe you are mistaking advantage for DIFFERENCE. Developer tools, PC porting, powerful/flexible/effecient GPU, high IQ from the eDRAM, simpler/more traditional CPU architecture, unified memory, 6-12mo launch advantage, a ground sweel of early software support, cost, Xbox Live, etc... are all advantages I see from a market and technical perspective as advantages that have priority over the HDD.

The HDD was never the only advantage or key advantage. It was one advantage among among--but an expensive one under used. Because of the nature of the business and crossplatforming it appeared to be on a path of under use.

Nothing in MS's plan has prevented its use for those who need it. Therefore the advantage remains.

Acting as if having HDD on consumer systems who would never use them is an advantage is flawed.

For the 15th time, I don't care PERSONALLY so quite trying to peg me as some specs junkie.

Then please stop mentioning inaccurate specs on the same topic

My point is that MS is BETTING on them pulling away casuals, and that this might be a bad gamble giving the casuals tendency too be EXTREMELY loyal to certain ingrained brand names. (Intel anyone?)

1. MS is not forsaking hardcore gamers for the casuals, so what does it matter to you if they expand their scope as long as they give you what you want?

Does it offend you that they are trying to keep the cost down so their platform is bigger? As noted before, this is a good thing to all gamers. As long as they offer the features, like the HDD, to consumers who want it who are they hurting?

At worst they are conforming to the patern of the market. They tried something new with the Xbox1. It failed on the PS2 and it was costly on the Xbox 360. Niether Sony nor Nintendo are going this route. No one in the market lives unto themselves, if the market dictates that a feature is unecessary or too expensive and consumers are not willing to pay for it then so be it. Fact is most gamers could care less about the HDD at this point in time.

2. History has shown the market to be VERY fickle. There is no such thing as loyalty. I remember when video gaming was called "Nintendo" "Sega" and now "Sony".

 

[mckmas8808]

Nobody knows why they did that. They don't usually do that.

Off-topic: Something new for Blu-ray coming up too.

Blu-ray Disc at IFA 2005
August 25, 2005

Come and visit the Blu-ray Disc Association at IFA 2005! We welcome you to have an hands-on experience with the latest Blu-ray Disc products from over a dozen manufacturers at our Blu-ray Disc Association booth, located in the HDTV theme hall 26B, booth 201.

IFA Berlin, Germany
September 2-7, 2005
Blu-ray Disc Association: Hall 26B, booth 201.

The Blu-ray Disc Association will organize a press conference, for press only!
Thursday September 1st, 5:00 - 6:00pm. The conference will be held in Hall 7, Room Berlin 1+2.

Furthermore, Blu-ray Disc will be prominently featured during the IFA Opening Event, on Thursday September 1st at 6.30pm. This event, called A Deep Blu Night, is an invitation-only dinner event.

On-topic: Is it me or does it seem like the Japanese devs don't know how to handle shaders?