We can make educated guesses though, just as we did back at PS3's launch with expectations of a reduction to $400 within a year. We know the core expenses of the Wii BOM - CPU, GPU, RAM, DVD drive, mobo, etc. Of those, many components are small and cheap enough at launch that they ahve enabled Nintendo to be very profitable from day one, but as a result, have far less cost reduction capacity. The DVD drive is probably as cheap as it'll ever get these days. The RAM price is unlikely to drop significantly - one of the core reasons consoles are always RAM constrained. The CPU cost is tiddly so even if they halve the cost, they'll only save half-of-tiddly dollars. The GPU is large enough that they could shave some notable (double figure) dollars of costs from my back-of-the-pie-in-the-sky estimate. All taken together, $30 off BOM over its life is probably good for this machine. And that's if they aggressively pursue chip reductions, which itself has a cost.
Point being, PS had like a BOM of $800 at launch, which over the life of PS3 could maybe be reduced down to $200 or less, maybe. Whereas Wii had a BOM of maybe $130, of which a reduction might go down to $100. This are clearly figures for illustration purposes! Thus PS3 will gain multiple price reductions from cost savings through the implementation of new technologies in a way Wii won't. It can't. The only way a Wii will drop from price from $250 to $150 is for Nintendo to give up their huge profits on the system. Price drops are something Nintendo won't be eager for and actively pursuing, unlike Sony. The DS shows the sort of price-reduction policy we can expect from Wii IMO - absolutely nothing as long as it sells! (which of course is true for all consumer products. You don't drop your price while demand matches your manufacturing capacity)
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