Jan NPD hardware stolen from GAF

[one]

Not really following your logic there. Since a console is totally supply limitd at launch, there is no advantage in the launch period with a worldwide launch. They would sell every unit they could make regardless if they launched worlwide or not.

The impact of the worldwide launch, will be the sales AFTER supply catches up in all regions, so at the end of 06 we'll have some idea of how successful the strategy was, and end of 07 we'll really know.

If you introduce another parameter that is worldwide launch vs regional launch, I have to introduce this factor, "whether other consoles launch later or not." The time left for the Xbox 360 runaway success (pun intended) is short - it has to build a sizable install base in the first half of 2006 before other consoles launch. Why do we have to wait till supply catches up? The reality is harsh and doesn't wait for you, let alone competitors and consumers. This is called 'opportunity loss'. It makes no sense to postpone the evaluation of their launch strategy later than 1H 2006. How much you spin words like 'relaunch', a product loses its novelty as we speak. I bet Microsoft executives think this way, while generous fans may think otherwise.

Now, certainly it's tad early to come to a conclusion. But you can read the trend from a curve of the sales graph, can't you?

 

[Sethamin]

No not really. We have seen so far that Sony could give two craps about MS and what they are trying to do with the 360. I mean really we still today don't know much about the damn PS3.

Sony is working on their own schedule, not MS's.

This is utter crap. How can you say that on one hand we know very little about the PS3, but on the other hand Sony doesn't care about MS and the 360? Doesn't the former preclude you from saying the latter? How would you even know at this point?

And if Sony is working on their own schedule, how come they showed a controller and case mockup that were clearly way too early to be shown? I believe that if they had their way and 360 did not ship last year, they would not have shown either of those things until E3 this year, if for nothing else than to make sure their PS2 business stays healthy.

 

[Sethamin]

If you introduce another parameter that is worldwide launch vs regional launch, I have to introduce this factor, "whether other consoles launch later or not." The time left for the Xbox 360 runaway success (pun intended) is short - it has to build a sizable install base in the first half of 2006 before other consoles launch. Why do we have to wait till supply catches up? The reality is harsh and doesn't wait for you, let alone competitors and consumers. This is called 'opportunity loss'. It makes no sense to postpone the evaluation of their launch strategy later than 1H 2006. How much you spin words like 'relaunch', a product loses its novelty as we speak. I bet Microsoft executives think this way, while generous fans may think otherwise.

Now, certainly it's tad early to come to a conclusion. But you can read the trend from a curve of the sales graph, can't you?

You can't accurately judge the demand curve until there's enough 360s to fully supply the channel. Until then, all you're seeing is the supply chart, since everything being put out is being sold. So no, you can't read the trend from the sales graph because the actual demand curve isn't visible right now.

 

[one]

You can't accurately judge the demand curve until there's enough 360s to fully supply the channel. Until then, all you're seeing is the supply chart, since everything being put out is being sold. So no, you can't read the trend from the sales graph because the actual demand curve isn't visible right now.

I think the demand is already visible in places such as eBay.
http://listings.ebay.com/_W0QQsocmd...ode=2&a10244=24269&a14=43930&alist=a10244,a14

 

[rabidrabbit]

I'm not sure if I read the eBay right, but aren't the xbox360's that are being sold there ging for a much lower price than the retail price? And many of them either have 0 buids yet or haven't met their starting bid?
So at least at eBay, to me it seems the semand is quite lacklustre

 

[Sis]

I think the demand is already visible in places such as eBay.
http://listings.ebay.com/_W0QQsocmdZListingItemList?pfid=1412&gcs=1134&sacat=-100&reqtype=2&socmd=ListingItemList&from=R2&socdpfcat=62054&pagetype=2&fcl=3&fsop=2&fsoo=2&pfmode=2&a10244=24269&a14=43930&alist=a10244%2Ca14

Nice try, but no, EBay is not a valid reference. It's like trying to clean the dirt off your car by using a cloth soaked in mud.

But your other point is good: the success of the launch--worldwide or not--can be viewed from Microsoft's own success criteria, one of which is surely taking a lead into 2nd half of 06. Do we have month to month NPD figures for Xbox that we could graph against month to month figures for Xbox 360?

Well, and regardless we need another month or two to get any useful data. I would think that we should have a good indication of how successful MS has been by the time PS3 launches.

 

[Sis]

I'm not sure if I read the eBay right, but aren't the xbox360's that are being sold there ging for a much lower price than the retail price? And many of them either have 0 buids yet or haven't met their starting bid?
So at least at eBay, to me it seems the semand is quite lacklustre

If you sort by time ending instead of time listed you see a more expected result (sorting by time listed is an odd way of sorting information on EBay--I wonder why one sorted it that way? ).

It may be true that the market for "people who can't possibly wait one more minute gotta have it now will pay any amount" interested in the Xbox 360 may be drying up. But it's not really germane to Xbox 360 success, is it? Let me check. iPods are successful, right? And yet, I don't see outrageous prices for them on EBay. So at least at eBay, to me it seems the demand is quite lacklustre

 

[Alpha_Spartan]

Mainly I was surprised PS2 beat out the 360.

Why? There's more PS2 on shelves than Xbox 360's. That will change soon though.

 

[ninzel]

That's bad business. Ideally you make the product and then market it so more and more people want it. There's no 'we've determined 20 million people want one' thinking, only 'we can make them this fast, let's put them out there and if they sell less, cut back on production' during which time you advertise and get the propaganda cannons blasting and keep up demand.

Perfectly estimating your potential customers demands, then meeting that in the most cost effective and efficient manner is bad business? Uhm ok.
Incredibly unrealsitic for sure.

 

[Sis]

Why? There's more PS2 on shelves than Xbox 360's. That will change soon though.

Maybe. It's possible/likely that Sony would then drop the price of the PS2 to 99$.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Again, you are thinking too short term.

The Xbox sold nearly 25 million units in slightly over 4 years time. They managed to sell over 10 million units in the last year alone.

If the Xbox had had 2 more years on store shelves it would have been at near 45 million at the end of it's lifecycle, and that's a much more respectable number.

You're talking about the benefits of launching earlier than your competition. I'm talking about the benefit of launching simultaneously in all region. Two completely different things.

We will be able to get a good idea of the impact on sales by looking at x360 sales vs xbox1 sales over their first 12-16months, as well as a comparison to PS3 sales over their first year or two. i.e. if 360 sells no more than xbox1 in the first 16months, the ww launch had no impact. if sales triple, it's definately a big success. we don't need to wait until 2010.

 

[expletive]

You're talking about the benefits of launching earlier than your competition. I'm talking about the benefit of launching simultaneously in all region. Two completely different things.

We will be able to get a good idea of the impact on sales by looking at x360 sales vs xbox1 sales over their first 12-16months, as well as a comparison to PS3 sales over their first year or two. i.e. if 360 sells no more than xbox1 in the first 16months, the ww launch had no impact. if sales triple, it's definately a big success. we don't need to wait until 2010.

I think they key factor for MS was sales relative to the PS3 throughout this gen. What the sales of the 360 are relative to the ps3 is MUCH more important to MS than the sales relative to the Xbox 1.

 

[rabidrabbit]

Let me check. iPods are successful, right? And yet, I don't see outrageous prices for them on EBay. So at least at eBay, to me it seems the demand is quite lacklustre

iPods are not short at supply, you can get them anywhere unlike xbox360's which you reportedly can't easily get from stores, thus one would need to buy from other channels, like eBay.
I agree though, eBay can not be the most reliable source of determining whether something is succesful over supply or not, can it.