Is AMD Losing Money with Vega?

[rcf]

Regardless, Vega is selling as fast as AMD can apparently make them. So not that much of a showstopper.

Let's look at Newegg for example:

https://www.newegg.com/Desktop-Graphics-Cards/SubCategory/ID-48

Newegg is a large retailer and yet it only has 2 Vega models available (down from 5 a few days ago). Compare that with the number of Polaris and Pascal cards available (hundreds of models).
The same goes for Amazon BTW. The number of Polaris and Pascal cards dwarfs the number of Vega cards available, and most available Vega cards just use the reference design.
Looks like AMD is barely making Vega GPUs, so the supply is very limited. That's why "Vega sells as fast as AMD can make them".
AMD is probably losing money with Vega, so the less it is manufactured, the better.

 

[Bondrewd]

AMD is probably losing money with Vega, so the less it is manufactured, the better.

Oh, this again.

 

[rcf]

Oh, this again.

Yes, that again.

 

[Bondrewd]

Yes, that again.

Let's not do this again.

 

[Grall]

Let's not do this again.

Let's not threadcrap, because it's shitty behavior. If you don't like a topic, please just avoid it.

Anyhow, if AMD is losing money then 3rd parties most likely don't, considering the outrageous prices on many of the cards, and especially the custom varieties. The Sapphire Nitro+ is SKR 7200, the ASUS Strix is SKR 8000 and the Powercolor Red Devil is SKR 8500 (!!!)
(SKR 9,90:€1 roughly, say 10:1 for simplicity's sake.)

That is, if they're even in stock. Availability seems absolutely horrible and has been for a long time, so I wouldn't discount out of hand the previously presented theories of AMD either deliberately limiting supply, or Apple sucking up a lot of the stock for the iMac Pro (although I don't really know how plausible that last one might be, considering the iMac Pro is a very niche model computer starting at like SKR 52k...)

You could choose to believe that coin miners are still vacuuming the market for GPUs, including vegas, but is that really still a thing? People say the heyday of GPU mining was back in the summer. Well, people say a lot of things, so who knows eh? *shrug*

 

[Bondrewd]

You could choose to believe that coin miners are still vacuuming the market for GPUs, including vegas, but is that really still a thing?

Vega was (and still is) the XMR champion.
Though cryptos have crashed today, maybe it'll get better after a while.

 

[rcf]

or Apple sucking up a lot of the stock for the iMac Pro (although I don't really know how plausible that last one might be, considering the iMac Pro is a very niche model computer starting at like SKR 52k...)

Apple uses Polaris inside the Macbook "Pro", which is more popular than the iMac "Pro" will ever be due to pricing, and yet there is no shortage of Polaris videocards.

 

[CarstenS]

You could choose to believe that coin miners are still vacuuming the market for GPUs, including vegas, but is that really still a thing? People say the heyday of GPU mining was back in the summer. Well, people say a lot of things, so who knows eh? *shrug*

Check ebay prices for used Vega 56's. The coin rally is real. 600 EUR for used V56s...

Vega was (and still is) the XMR champion.
Though cryptos have crashed today, maybe it'll get better after a while.

They are far from crashing, miners love this, they just waited for a little dip to invest mined money back into cryptos.

 

[Bondrewd]

they just waited for a little dip to invest mined money back into cryptos.

Yeah, especially the ones that bought $btc at $19k.
Buy high, sell low. The crypto motto.

 

[CarstenS]

Talking about miners, not some clueless opportunists hoping the bubble would go on forever.

 

[Bondrewd]

Talking about miners, not some clueless opportunists hoping the bubble would go on forever.

People that invest into GPU mining suffer no less from the crypto dropping.
ROI going further and further away is a painful expirience.

 

[CarstenS]

Of course they do. But they reinvest their earnings now for cheaper bitcoin for great profits soon. But if you're happy: yeah, BTC et al lost value today.

 

[lanek]

People that invest into GPU mining suffer no less from the crypto dropping.
ROI going further and further away is a painful expirience.

Peoples who have buy Bitcoin last week for sell them higher will not sell them today, they will wait that the rate is up again...Peoples who mine dont care much.. instead of having them at 17K they have them at 13K.. They will prefer to have the rate at 20K ( more money in return ), but it is not as they was lost money on Bitcoins who are not yet generated.

Honestly 20K / bitcoin was just completely crazy, it was time that price was going back to "normal".

This said, they was a last meet up with Darren, last week .. and i can ensure you that AMD dont loose money with Vega lol.

 

[MfA]

People that invest into GPU mining suffer no less from the crypto dropping.

It's not really relevant to Ethereum/GPUs, but bitcoin miners earn on the desire of people to trade more than bitcoin's value. Transaction fee income per block has gone through the roof.

It's clearly completely unsustainable at this point, I imagine they're just planning to ride this wave to the bottom and jumping ship to Bitcoin cash.

 

[itsmydamnation]

I very much doubt it. I also wonder why people think poor availability is because of HBM and or packaging? AMD manufacture all of polaris, Zeppelin, Raven ridge and Vega at GF. GF is increasing 14 (assume 12nm as its probably the same thing) by 20% next year, i wonder why......

Taking this as a base line.
https://i.redditmedia.com/9_RA7Z4nL....jpg?w=748&s=60e9b7552a828c6f4410b4a27201e633

GPU Costs less (WSA + smaller die)
HBM cost more but its 1/2 the number of stacks at the same height, so maybe double?
interposer costs less
packaging costs less ( 1/2 the number of stacks)
pcb about the same.

so probably talking in the $200-$250 range. But there are big unknowns like packaging yeild, but you would expect that to be better then Fury anyway. With a RRP of 399/499, i assume 20% of RRP for disty/retailer/shipping( i think this is very high). So even for 56 assuming $250 manufacture cost +80 other thats 27% gross margin, if its closer to $200 + 80 other gross margin approaches 60%.

But i suppose the narrative is HBM2 that everyone wants to use ( mass manufacture) is really expensive , while the super boutique GRR5X is super cheap right?

edit: As far as i know GF only has 60K wafer starts a month for all clients at the ~14nm process node.

 

[Bondrewd]

But i suppose the narrative is HBM2 that everyone wants to use ( mass manufacture) is really expensive , while the super boutique GRR5X is super cheap right?

TSV memories are inherently harder to manufacture, but they are not THAT pricier than already pricy G5X.

edit: As far as i know GF only has 60K wafer starts a month for all clients at the ~14nm process node.

Yeah, and AMD (according to Lisa) are not going to react to crypto demand.
I really really want them to finally dedicate more wafers to the GPU.