IGN: Another Xbox 360 bites the dust.

[AntShaw]

Forgive me, but please explain how you are determining the failure rate based on MS's financials. Can you break it down?

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=916627&postcount=1

If Microsoft was at a 30-50% failure rate like some are suggesting their operating loses wouldn't of narrowed by 17%. Realistically they would of increased the other way. Especially at a number like $383 million.

I speculate if they were even at a 30% failure rate, the operating loses for that half could of been in the $500-$700 million range if not higher.

 

[paawl]

I speculate if they were even at a 30% failure rate, the operating loses for that half could of been in the $500-$700 million range if not higher.

Would you care to explain how you calculated those numbers? Go slow, I'm not an expert at reading financial statements.

I don't think you'll find evidence of the failure rate in MS's financials, and here's why: MS operates a repair facility in Texas for Xbox 360s; they have to pay the cost of the building, the employees, etc., regardless of how many systems they're repairing. Even if the return rate were unexpectedly large, MS wouldn't have had time to massively expand the facility yet. Maybe they have the employees work overtime, or maybe they cut corners in the repair process. My own experience with two of MS's refurbished consoles, which failed within an hour, certainly gives me concern that their testing procedures aren't all that strict.

I don't claim to know what the actual failure rate of Xbox 360s is; I don't have access to the right data to be able to make a determination. MS could provide that information, but until they do, all I have to go on is my own experience (3 bad systems out of 4 purchased at retail). Based only on that, I can say with 90% confidence that the failure rate is between 25 and 90%. Not very useful, I know.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Until there are official numbers one way or another the burden of proof is on you as no evidence or a lack of evidence shows that the 360's are within a normal range of failures for a CE device.

The only way you're able to say "there is no evidence" is by discarding every piece of evidence that doesn't say what you want it to. So far, the only evidence we have--both informal internet polls, the sheer number of people going through 3, 4, or even 5 machines, and EA's sampling of 300--indicate a very high failure rate. For one thing, even if EA's batch came from a particularly bad production run, quality control should never allow a run with a 30% defect rate out the door. When you have a failure rate that high for any manufacturing process that quality control isn't catching, you likely don't have a clue what's causing it or how it can be fixed.

So, all our evidence says a high range of failures. I'm waiting for just one informal poll or piece of store/developer data that says the failure rate is below 10%.

And the class-action suit is still pending: http://www.lawyersandsettlements.com/case/defective_xbox_360

If MS had a 3% defect rate like they claim, this would have been thrown out of court already.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Actually, I'd say that the class action is still going on because MS are contesting it, rather than settling. Never really pay any attention to class action lawsuits as they are frequently frivelous.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

We do have the proof. It's called Microsoft's earnings over the last 12 months. If they had a failure rate anywhere near what the naysayers are speculating, Micrsoft would not of finished anywhere close to being in the black as they have.

For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2006, the company announced revenue of $44.28 billion, an 11% increase over the prior year.

http://www.microsoft.com/msft/earnings/FY06/earn_rel_q4_06.mspx

Close to black?

With 10-12 billion per Quarter in revenue, i would like a source of this "close to being in the black"

 

[deathkiller]

http://www.microsoft.com/msft/earnings/FY06/earn_rel_q4_06.mspx

Close to black?

With 10-12 billion per Quarter in revenue, i would like a source of this "close to being in the black"

The Home and Entertainment Segment (witch includes the Xbox) lost last year 1,262m$ going by your link.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

The Home and Entertainment Segment (witch includes the Xbox) lost last year 1,262m$ going by your link.

And they have never actually profited in that segment..

 

[fearsomepirate]

Actually, I'd say that the class action is still going on because MS are contesting it, rather than settling. Never really pay any attention to class action lawsuits as they are frequently frivelous.

The whole point of a class-action suit anyway is to make the lawyers rich beyond their wildest dreams. I always like how each of the lawyers gets millions, while each of the plaintiffs gets around $20. God bless America.

 

[dobwal]

The only way you're able to say "there is no evidence" is by discarding every piece of evidence that doesn't say what you want it to. So far, the only evidence we have--both informal internet polls, the sheer number of people going through 3, 4, or even 5 machines, and EA's sampling of 300--indicate a very high failure rate. For one thing, even if EA's batch came from a particularly bad production run, quality control should never allow a run with a 30% defect rate out the door. When you have a failure rate that high for any manufacturing process that quality control isn't catching, you likely don't have a clue what's causing it or how it can be fixed.

So, all our evidence says a high range of failures. I'm waiting for just one informal poll or piece of store/developer data that says the failure rate is below 10%.

And the class-action suit is still pending: http://www.lawyersandsettlements.com/case/defective_xbox_360

If MS had a 3% defect rate like they claim, this would have been thrown out of court already.

Would you ever use the defect rate report of a car given by a rental company as a reliable way to judge the same car for private and personal use?

Informal polls are about as reliable as a magic 8 ball. There is no way an internet poll can effectively remove bias since it is in no way random and cannot be used objectively to judge the failure rate of the 360.

Class action lawsuits or lawsuits in general don't resolve themselves overnight especially when they involve millions of dollars. SCO avoided showing evidence for over a year before a judge rejected part of its suit against IBM.

 

[SL369]

The part that fails is not necessary the part at fault.

I had an Amiga 500 that died 6 times, the 5'th time it died they changed the entire main board, and it still died again. The problem was obviously not with the Amiga itself so for the first time i also sent in the power supply for testing, and yes, the power supply was the guilty part in the serial killing of my A500.

So if you are on your 3-4'th X360 then maybe the next time it dies you should send in the power brick too.

 

[Qroach]

MS policy on returns is after three returns and you get a new unit.

 

[paawl]

MS policy on returns is after three returns and you get a new unit.

Really? Because I was told, by a "supervisor", that after two returns you get a new unit. And then, after two returns, when I got another refurb, I was told that the policy was three returns. When I asked to see that policy in writing, I was told that there was no policy.

To those who think that there aren't enough data to determine the failure rate, let me assure you that someone has enough data to pinpoint the failure rate precisely. The fact that he's not talking should make you suspicious . . .

 

[paawl]

So if you are on your 3-4'th X360 then maybe the next time it dies you should send in the power brick too.

I tried that---twice. Both times I was told that MS absolutely could not accept a return of the power supply, that if the light was green, everything was A-OK. If I sent in my PSU or hard drive I was told that those "accessories" could not be returned to me. There wasn't even enough space in the shipping box MS sent me to include the PSU, if I had wanted to get rid of it.

 

[dobwal]

Really? Because I was told, by a "supervisor", that after two returns you get a new unit. And then, after two returns, when I got another refurb, I was told that the policy was three returns. When I asked to see that policy in writing, I was told that there was no policy.

To those who think that there aren't enough data to determine the failure rate, let me assure you that someone has enough data to pinpoint the failure rate precisely. The fact that he's not talking should make you suspicious . . .

"someone"? Does a MS's employee from the Statiscal Analysis Department post here?

 

[Cal]

I'm on my third... kit now. The first two dead on red ring.

 

[one]

You know, it's strange. I have absolutely no evidence that there's any problem with the PSU, but I tried, twice, unsuccessfully, to get MS to accept return of my PSU and hard drive. My reasoning was that I had had three bad consoles in a row, and that the only things that hadn't been replaced were the power supply and hard drive. I spoke with four supervisors, but not one of them would set-up a return for me. One of them walked me through formatting the hard drive, and said that formatting was all MS could do if I returned it to them anyway, and all of them insisted that as long as the light on the PSU was green, it was OK . . . as though built-in tests have never failed before . . .

As you suspect the build quality of the PSU is not very good it seems.

 

[paawl]

As you suspect the build quality of the PSU is not very good it seems.

I've never opened one before. What is that goo? What should the inside look like?

 

[Bigus Dickus]

I'm pretty sure that is just thermal paste.

 

[Mordecaii]

Just out of curiosity, do we have any info about Xbox 360 hardware revisions? Have there been any yet, and if so what was changed? I'm just curious because I know that my 360 was manufactured in September of last year, and I'm curious what has changed between the launch units and my current unit.

 

[Dave Baumann]

As you suspect the build quality of the PSU is not very good it seems.

What do you think that picture is actually telling you?