How will be the Wii successor?

[Carl B]

how significant will that difference be thought? We are at a stage where diminishing results are starting to kick in rather quick.

The leap in technology from now to 4-5 years in the future will be big. The difference in graphics is starting to diminish rather quickly. For every generation the perception of graphical differences is getting smaller and smaller.

The jump from N64\PS1 to PS2\Xbox was big. The jump from PS2\Xbox was far from as big in the eyes of most consumers. And this trend will only continue, and it will not scale linearly.

Well, it's all relative. The truth is, between now and four years from now there might be plenty that suddenly becomes 'of concern' in the world of graphics, gaming, and/or computing in general. Any area where greater scale will lead to tangible differentiation is an area that opens itself up as a vector for spending/outclassing.

We'll just have to wait and see whether the pressures abate on the 'race,' or whether despite the departure of KK, factors conspire to keep them simmering.

 

[V3]

I think Nintendo made a hardware decision with the Wii to lower the hardware cost as much as possible to make it feasible to do fairly well with limited market share. They were basically ensuring that the Wii would be a profitable venture even in a distant third place.

Well the main reason they gave for Wii hardware was, the raising of development cost, while the sales of games haven't really raise that much. As I see it, Nintendo themselves do not want to put up with the raising of development cost, they like their profit margins. As far as Nintendo is concern their games like Wii Sports, will sell the same amount with Wii graphics or PS3/360 graphics.

The only reason they will upgrade the graphics is if, it has benefit to their bottom line. Considering the popularity of DS and Wii, graphic isn't all that currently.

 

[taucias]

Software only once the Wii snuffs it, with hardware only being handheld.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Software only once the Wii snuffs it, with hardware only being handheld.

I think your underestimating nintendo. Even if the Wii would flop it will probably sell more than GC and given the amount of profit nintendo makes on hardware alone there is no way they will ever lose money on wii. Hardware has always been a way to sell their software for nintendo, they wont stop that easily especially if they keep making money on it.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

I think your underestimating nintendo. Even if the Wii would flop it will probably sell more than GC and given the amount of profit nintendo makes on hardware alone there is no way they will ever lose money on wii.

It could be perceived as a flop if and when people realize there are no titles for it worth buying, regardless of hardware sales. What good is a console with no games?

Hardware has always been a way to sell their software for nintendo, they wont stop that easily especially if they keep making money on it.

Why isn't it then? Wii software sales have been utterly pathetic, given the highest install base among current-gen consoles.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

It could be perceived as a flop if and when people realize there are no titles for it worth buying, regardless of hardware sales. What good is a console with no games?

There will always be the games made by nintendo themselves so Wii will never be entirely without quality games. And given how fast it sells sooner or later there must be more quality games out than on GC.

Why isn't it then? Wii software sales have been utterly pathetic, given the highest install base among current-gen consoles.

And the quality of most games has been utterly pathetic too so it isnt very suprising software doesnt sell very good, relatively speaking because ubi for example is still making a shitload of cash on there beyond crap games. Only instead of using it to make something decent for wii they use it to fund x360 and ps3 games...

 

[liolio]

Yeah I'm really wondering what the heck Nintendo is gonna do next. From my perspective they've kinda backed themselves into a corner.

They sell two low tech consoles, because they could not continue down a high tech path. It became too expensive.

Those two low tech consoles, imo, sell on two gimmicks, motion control and touch sensing.

So it just begs the question..what are Wii2 and DS2 going to look like? I defy anybody to answer me that in a convincing fashion.

I actually think they have one option left in the console space possible for Wii2. Some sort of full 3D motion detection system using cameras. I'm sure MS, SONY, and Nintendo are now busy patenting everything they can get their hands on related to motion control, so I think Sony and MS could copy 3D motion control anyway.

Idon't think Nintendo cornered themself, in fact they were cornered before the wii, theirs exclusive were not that graphic hungry, they hadn't any hype form their previous product, not strong editors support.

So they gave up the idea of pushing out a high end product, more doing so they limited the financial risk.

But I don't think they do so because it was too expansive, they just feel that they shouldn't aim at that part of the market. they went for chasing casual market (and planed for expend it) while keeping theirs traditional gamers.

For the next wii I think Nintendo will come with something better than the wii, but I can't see them aiming at sky high perfs, the next Wii will just be good enough for its purpose, hd gaming, with ok physic effects, and further improved motion sensitivity.

I also think nintendo will purchase available technology to not bear the cost RD.
My bet is on power efficient ppc (OoO) that 3dilletante spoke a lot some time ago.
something like a SOC with at least 2 cores.
for graphics a mid/low end slightly tweaked AMD part.
My bet would be an UMA design with 512MB of RAM GDDR4 RAM

In fact really close to a 360 but with a better/newer gpu.

Nintendo is a rich company they can afford a lot of stuffs but the hardware don't have to do more than it's marketed for.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

There will always be the games made by nintendo themselves so Wii will never be entirely without quality games. And given how fast it sells sooner or later there must be more quality games out than on GC.

True. It does seem an inevitability that Nintendo themselves will release a "must-have" game that justifies a Wii purchase. Other than that there's the upcoming Lucasarts Star Wars Wii title, which should sell regardless of how bad it is, but if it's good it could be the game of the generation. Seems like the Wii was made for swinging a lightsaber, if you ask me. It's about the only game I'd buy a Wii for (assuming it's any good).

And the quality of most games has been utterly pathetic too so it isnt very suprising software doesnt sell very good, relatively speaking because ubi for example is still making a shitload of cash on there beyond crap games. Only instead of using it to make something decent for wii they use it to fund x360 and ps3 games...

So true, and so sad. Seems like 3rd parties are really abusing the Wii audience. Put out some re-hashed last-gen game with practically no development cost and rake in the dough.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Wii software sales have been utterly pathetic, given the highest install base among current-gen consoles.

As of June 2007, Wii's attach rate was 4.83. I don't think that includes Wii Sports pack-ins, but maybe it does. In the USA in June 2006, 360's attach rate was 4.6. For a console less than a year out, Wii is doing OK.

Sources:
http://gamerscoreblog.com/team/archive/2006/06/12/535663.aspx
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11055&page=3

 

[StefanS]

As of June 2007, Wii's attach rate was 4.83. I don't think that includes Wii Sports pack-ins, but maybe it does. In the USA in June 2006, 360's attach rate was 4.6. For a console less than a year out, Wii is doing OK.

Sources:
http://gamerscoreblog.com/team/archive/2006/06/12/535663.aspx
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11055&page=3

If it's based on the quarter report, as the data suggest, it does indeed count Wii Sport. It also fits quite neatly with the march report, where the overall tie rate was 4.94.

 

[Crossbar]

If it's based on the quarter report, as the data suggest, it does indeed count Wii Sport. It also fits quite neatly with the march report, where the overall tie rate was 4.94.

For a console that hasn´t been on the market one year yet and is selling in crazy numbers, that tie rate sounds incredibly good.

Even if the bundled Wii Sports is included in the number, by the way it wasn´t bundled in Japan was it?

 

[AlphaWolf]

For a console that hasn´t been on the market one year yet and is selling in crazy numbers, that tie rate sounds incredibly good.

It's boosted a fair bit by the two bundled products. Although I think the only question about the tie in with the wii (and Nintendo in general) has been in regards to 3rd party software.

 

[Crossbar]

It's boosted a fair bit by the two bundled products.

Two games?
Does the Wii come bundled with games in Japan?

 

[AlphaWolf]

Two games?
Does the Wii come bundled with games in Japan?

Wiiplay comes with the wiimote and wii sports with the console. Most people buy an extra controller. Japan doesn't get wiisports tho.

 

[StefanS]

Two games?
Does the Wii come bundled with games in Japan?

Nah, I think AlphaWolf is referring to the controller Wii bundle.

As for Japan the Wii is sold without game there. Consequently, the tie rate is around ~3 games in that region (again March 07).

 

[Oblivion]

Not to say that I don't think WiiHD will be a significant leap in abilities from the present console, but I don't think it will be in PS4's and 720's weight class.

If Wii2 comes any NEAR 360/PS3 power, I'd be ridiculously pleased, and probably even more surprised.

Nintendo is in a very strange position right now. They're making hand over fist with Wii hardware sales, and their own first party titles are doing great, and will continue to do great. However, third parties still aren't willing to provide Nintendo with their AAA games, saving them for 360/PS3. The reasons vary from fearing that they'll bomb on the Wii because of some ridiculous ingrained notion that third party games don't sell on Nintendo consoles to wanting to make games for HD consoles after spending god knows how much to create next gen. assets + training the developers to handle next gen. projects. At this point, I honestly believe it's the latter that's the major issue. You know damn well Square Enix is shitting bricks after seeing the PS3's abysmal performance in Japan, but know that if they decide to do a Wii port for FFXIII, they'd have to scale it back by absurd amounts. Thus making it seem that ironically, if Nintendo hadn't made the Wii so fucking weak, while still making it affordable, they could have had all these real games by now.

So now what does Nintendo do? Make Wii 2 powerful enough next time so that they could potentially have a chance to get all those games? But that could be quite risky. Who says they'll still bother doing it? Will third parties STILL leave Nintendo out in the cold?

Should Nintendo stick with the Wii methodology? At this point, it seems like a revisiting of Gamecube (no joke intended), with third parties still not wanting to take the system seriously, but with the added benefit for Nintendo to milk every cent they can from the hardware.

It really sucks, sadly. Since there's no guarantee which route would be the most optimal, so they could go the safest instead, low power, new gimmick, etc. At this point, I would be thrilled if they even considered 256 MB of RAM with at least some new shader functions.

 

[ninzel]

I expect that it will be similar in in philosophy to the Wii and DS. If the Wii continues to be a success and turns in to the GBA of the home console world as I suspect it will,I don't think we will see any comparisons to it's competitors.In other words hoping for a change of heart from within Nintendo,to the point where they produce a system similar to it's competitors is IMO,wishful thinking.

 

[TheChefO]

If Wii2 comes any NEAR 360/PS3 power, I'd be ridiculously pleased, and probably even more surprised..

Smartest thing for them to do IMO is hit somewhere between ps3/xb360 and ps4/xb720 power wise and drop first with a very easy and well rounded dev kit.

Doing so should still leave them in the running for AAA games, enable a low(er) pricepoint, and good dev support. Not to mention, the warchest they've made from this gen should enable them to aggressively go after some exclusives to help build their library.

2010:
4 core ppc 4ghz 2mb cache
512mb DDR 128b@1200mhz
g80 class gpu 512mb 128b@1200mhz
Aiming for 720p (with a scaler to 1080p) should enable them to compete fairly well with ps4/xb720.
Still sticking with DVD unless HDDVD/BR is less than $20 difference by then

Unless they can cook up another unique control interface...

 

[Oblivion]

Smartest thing for them to do IMO is hit somewhere between ps3/xb360 and ps4/xb720 power wise and drop first with a very easy and well rounded dev kit.

Doing so should still leave them in the running for AAA games, enable a low(er) pricepoint, and good dev support. Not to mention, the warchest they've made from this gen should enable them to aggressively go after some exclusives to help build their library.

2010:
4 core ppc 4ghz 2mb cache
512mb DDR 128b@1200mhz
g80 class gpu 512mb 128b@1200mhz
Aiming for 720p (with a scaler to 1080p) should enable them to compete fairly well with ps4/xb720.
Still sticking with DVD unless HDDVD/BR is less than $20 difference by then

Unless they can cook up another unique control interface...

Since ATi and Nvidia will most likely be going crazy doing 1080p GPUs, getting a decent one that runs 720p shouldn't be too difficult to get for cheap.

Hell, seriously though, at this point, I would be even happy if Nintendo got a GPU that did Xbox360/PS3 graphics at 480p.

 

[fearsomepirate]

I expect that it will be similar in in philosophy to the Wii and DS. If the Wii continues to be a success and turns in to the GBA of the home console world as I suspect it will,I don't think we will see any comparisons to it's competitors.In other words hoping for a change of heart from within Nintendo,to the point where they produce a system similar to it's competitors is IMO,wishful thinking.

The bottom could still fall out of Wii sales yet. There are basically no serious 3rd party games on the system either out or announced in either the USA or Japan, this despite Wii being the worldwide sales leader. With 3rd parties essentially declaring that they have no interest in developing for Wii, how long can Nintendo sustain sales? My guess is around another year. Once regular gamers realize games aren't coming out for the system, they'll shelve it and quit buying games entirely, and the novelty factor will wear off for the casuals. By that point, PS3 should have dropped in price in Japan to the point where normal people can buy it, X360 will have picked back up due to a price cut, and Wii will go on the ash-heap of consoles that almost made it along with Dreamcast. Nintendo will realize that the only way to have system longevity is to get 3rd parties, and 3rd parties are largely disinterested in developing for an ancient, weak piece of junk...because despite Wii buyers being non-geeks, software development houses are without exception staffed mostly by geeks.

Geeks like powerful hardware, end of story.