I think we may agree on most of these points! Most...
We both have little babies ... this makes us soft.
PC developers who have never been confronted with anything like the PS2
I wouldn't say this, exactly. The PS2 did, afterall, have a huge following. The number of developers who touched the platform is pretty significant, especially when you consider employee migration. While a small number of AAA PC-only dev houses hadn't bothered
much (I am thinking people like Valve, Epic, id, etc) with the PS2 there are as many of the big dogs who did as well as many of your 2nd tier guys did.[/quote]
I don't know about this. A lot of outsourcing happened here ... Turnover for coders, especially junior, is high, and Unreal like engines were already available. And you don't need that many coders anyway for engines. Something like programming a shader and such wasn't even really relevant in the PS2 days (though of course there are some similarities - but these were rarely used), which is another reason there is more influx from PC coders to the console space these days.
What is interesting is Epic's next gen offerings have been pretty good and id's id Tech 5 may technically be impressive as well.
For these companies, the PS3's difficulties as well as the PC cross-over factor are a blessing rather than a curse. It makes software like theirs all the more valuable.
This is only going to get worse. As I was just mentioning Epic, the new Gears game is much more complex than the first. We knew this would happen based on last gen (games get more technically advanced, feature rich, content rich, and push the bounds of the systems' limitations as the generation advances). If complexity outpaces the pace of (a) training people to work proficiently on a difficult platform or (b) making the difficult platform(s) more accessible through various efforts, this poses a problem.
Historically this is what you would expect. But I'm not sure that is necessarily the case. I think publishers should and eventually will focus more on developing smaller download games. This allows for smaller experiences and smaller projects with less risk and greater reward. It should help both innovative titles (less risk, test the waters online), casual titles (no need to justify a 60$ pricetag).
But even big projects still have more of a chance of standing out on one particular platform, and it is not unlikely that we will see less overlap in target demographics between the different platforms as time progresses. Look at Gears and Halo on the 360 for instance, Wii motion control games, etc. Once the 360 and PS3 cross that 20 million install base mark, things will change even for bigger projects. I don't think Gears is the best of example to take for multi-platform development anyway.
Apart from the obvious issues of not being multi-platform, at the same time it's the result of Epics work on the Unreal Engine, and functions partly as a show-case title (these days maybe even moreso than Unreal Tournament, witnessing they used Gears to show Unreal Engine innovations).
Minimally, as the market expands and individual game budgets (complexity) expand there will continue to be a dillution of skilled developers. I think this will dictate future consoles be even more accessible than todays versions.
Agreed. However, the need for a platform to stand out will also remain important. There's a constant struggle in that respect between the UE3 and id tech5 type projects on the one extreme, and Nintendo's domination of their own platforms with their own titles on the other extreme. It is hard to predict how much these two will cancel each other out, but Nintendo at the very least shows there is the potential. Of course, that machine not stressing graphical prowess, it's a relatively easy and cheap platform to develop for anyway.
I think they will be changing for the worse to be frank. In the short term, yes, the PS3 is going to catch up a lot in dev savvy and best practices. It already is in many ways. But with budgets and dev times growing to points of unprofitability there will become a growing need to tame these more so than now as well as accessing a pool of cheaper labor.
It will happen though. I don't think the drive to distinguish yourself technically from your competitors is going to go away completely. I'm sticking to the theory that this is something that goes up in importance as the console generation progresses, and also some of the technologies that are relatively alien now may be considered the norm in a few years time. This too has happened before.
All 3 are going to have to pull out the stops on this last point next gen (and through this gen in continued improvements). The risk factor alone dictates getting the most out of the hardware with the fewest people/budget and shortest time of prime importance. I think this factor above will be a major guiding principle on the design of all three new consoles.
Perhaps, but we'll see. I think that we'll not see that many technological differences in terms of innovation, but software support of those innovations will improve and have a higher standard from day one (or rather, probably before that time even
).
At the same time, and maybe far more important, I think being able to do titles at a different scale through use of download services will become a bigger factor, perhaps even the biggest, in taking away a lot of the risks and cost. I have a feeling that on the PS3 for instance, the Warhawk and GT5 Prologue projects have been a (quiet, don't want to upset retailers too much) success, with Insomniac now following with a Ratchet & Clank title, and PSN getting more and more positive attention in the press in this regard. Meanwhile, the 360's upping the download limit for Arcade games all the time too, and Nintendo has just launched WiiWare.
Edit: coincidentally, I just come across Peter Moore's take on this matter:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/peter-moore-part-two
Edit: also on the same site, Sushei Yoshida, the new head of Sony WorldWide Studios:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...rning-opportunity-for-developers-says-yoshida
I think he and Phil Harrison could see eye to eye in their new positions.