Future of 3D gaming and media *spawn

[AlphaWolf]

This thread is a spinoff from the NPD thread examining MS's options for a next-gen optical format

I think the realistic option for Microsoft is Blu-ray. Nothing else really makes sense. 3D will be pretty big by next gen, and the next Xbox should have capability built in. It's not like BD drives cost a lot now anyway, from what I have seen they are less than 3000 JPY for a cheap 2x one and around 4000 JPY for an acoustically silenced 8x one.

Why will 3D be pretty big? I think that's a highly optimistic view of that technology.

 

[NathansFortune]

Play a 3D game and come back to me.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Play a 3D game and come back to me.

oh my god you've convinced the entire world to run out and buy a new TV with the all powerful rolling eyes smiley.

I've have played with 3D. It doesn't make a bad game good, it's nowhere near a make or break feature for any game I've seen and the requirement of the glasses seems a bigger negative than any visuals positive. In order for 3D to be big next generation you need to get 3DTVs into a lot of homes pretty fast. If people adopt at the same rate they've adopted HDTV's you're looking at 10 years to have significant penetration. If you don't have significant penetration of 3DTVs developers will be forced to segregate their user base. So they make a game that supports 3D, but isn't really required to enjoy it, or you go whole hog and base the game on it, but target a subset of the user base. So far I think 3D has about as much chance as the VR glasses. I know I'd rather they concentrate on making a quality 2d product over implementing some new tech just because they can.

You're entitled to your opinion, but it'd be nice if you actually shared why you think its good and going to grow incredibly fast. So far there's not really any evidence to support it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Doesn't matter how good it is if the price is out of most people's reach. Lots of us only recently bought HD sets. Do households typically replace their TV every 4-5 years? Not AFAIK. We're looking at 2/3rds HDTV presence in US homes now, 5 years after this gen launched, with HD being around since 2000. People have been replacing their old, massive CRTs with new, slimline HDTVs, a double upgrade - not everyone with an HDTV even has an HD image source, but the form factor is worth having. Going 3D will cost more and give less advantages, so doesn't look as desirable to me by comparison.

Just as XB360 and Wii haven't really suffered from loack of HD movie playback, because it wasn't a big thing at the start of this gen, neXBox won't miss out by not providing 3D output. Those who are paying for a 3D TV set early on can probably afford a 3D BRD player that won't be expensive. I do think neXBox would miss out a little not offering BRD movie playback, but only a little, one of many checkbox features that people probably won't much use.

 

[Toaddio]

You're entitled to your opinion, but it'd be nice if you actually shared why you think its good and going to grow incredibly fast. So far there's not really any evidence to support it.

Purchase patterns in the US this holiday season point to 3D being an important feature for the public. There's also a lot of content coming out in 3D.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Purchase patterns in the US this holiday season point to 3D being an important feature for the public. There's also a lot of content coming out in 3D.

Link?

 

[Toaddio]

Link?

Sorry, it was somewhere around these forums.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Sorry, it was somewhere around these forums.

Well here's what some quick googling gets me.

Between a sluggish economy, lack of standards and few movie offerings, the latest and greatest in television technology is likely to remain a niche product, according to Riddhi Patel, principal analyst for television systems at iSuppli Market Research.

It’s estimated that TV manufacturers will have shipped 3.2 million 3DTVs in 2010 in North America. That works out to 2 percent of all TVs sold this year being of the 3D variety. That’s not exactly devastating, but manufacturers were hoping for a bit more.

Hailed as the best thing since sliced bread, it's been hard to avoid the buzz generated around 3D TVs over the last 18 months. However, it appears, so far at least, that the massive promotional push behind 3D TV has only resulted in modest sales in Europe.

There will be nearly 50 million 3DTV displays sold worldwide in 2015, up from just over 3 million in 2010, according to one forecast. Within the same timeframe around half the homes in the United States could have a 3D capable display, according to another. These projections reflect the aspirations of suppliers, rather than clear evidence of consumer demand.

So I'd love to see these competing statistics.

 

[NavNucST3]

Well here's what some quick googling gets me.








So I'd love to see these competing statistics.

If you go back to the SNE earnings thread you will see that SONY was also disappointed in 3D uptake.

EDIT: Here is translated transcript at SA

 

[NRP]

Purchase patterns in the US this holiday season point to 3D being an important feature for the public. There's also a lot of content coming out in 3D.

Well, as Sony fans keep saying, the US != world.

I agree with Shifty though. Not too long ago we were debating HD TV uptake. Now we're supposed to believe that an even more niche feature will experience rapid proliferation? Seems unlikely to me.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Play a 3D game and come back to me.

Have been playing 3D stereoscopic games since the mid 90's. /yawn...

Come back to me when there's a real breakthrough. The ONLY exciting developement in the 3D stereoscopic gaming scene is the upcoming Nintendo 3DS, everything else is basically the same as what we've had for the past 10 years. And even the 3DS is just an extension of somewhat similar monitors that released years ago but flopped due to insufficient interest, support, and infrastructure.

I see a lot of companies praying that 3D stereoscopic entertainment will take off, but I have yet to see much evidence that this push is going to be significantly more successful than past pushes.

Call me jaded, but where once I got excited everytime this company or that company promised the dawn of 3D Stereoscopic movie watching, game playing, etc., I now find myself looking at it expecting the same fate since they continually rehash the same thing over and over again.

Basically I'm waiting for a real and compelling consumer breakthrough for this that will have widespread appeal. And the current offerings aren't anywhere close to that, IMO.

Funny thing is. If LCD's hadn't taken off when they did. It's possible 3D entertainment would be far more advanced than what it is now as we've had to wait until LCD panels that could update quickly enough became more common. Basically where we're at now is where 3D entertainment "could" have been about 5-8 years ago if LCDs hadn't gained widespread adoption.

Regards,
SB

 

[zed]

Um the 1st,5th,6th top grossing films of ALL TIME have been chiefly 3d films
It seems as if the customers have voted with their wallets for 3d

to compare this to past 3d film phases (which had no where near the same boxoffice success) is disingenuous

 

[Rotmm]

And Avatar, very far from being in 3D, is the best selling BluRay of all time.

So what is the point you're trying to make. That a heavily anticipated movie from the director of the 2nd top grossing film of all time ($2.5B in todays money) only did well because it was in 3D? Or that the long awaited "difficult 3rd album" of one of the most loved animated films of all time pulled in the crowds only because it was in 3D?

To be fair, I personally cannot understand why Alice in Wonderland has made it into that list (other than it's one of the most recognised stories in the world), but I assume it's for the same reason that the equally average PotC: Dead Man's Chest is.... great marketing campaign and the crowd pulling power of Johnny Depp.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Um the 1st,5th,6th top grossing films of ALL TIME have been chiefly 3d films
It seems as if the customers have voted with their wallets for 3d

to compare this to past 3d film phases (which had no where near the same boxoffice success) is disingenuous

To claim these movies did well only because of 3D is just as disingenuous. Even Avatar which had the highest ratio only did 75% of its ticket revenue (3D screenings typically cost 30-50% more as well) in 3D screenings. Alice and Toy Story had lower ratios.

 

[corduroygt]

Avatar 3D blu-rays are going for $150-$200 on ebay, because the only way to get them is to either get a Panasonic 3DTV, or 2 set of Panasonic 3D glasses bundle that goes for $300+ on Amazon...crazy, especially since Avatar's not that good of a movie.

 

[AlNom]

Well they're certainly not buying it for the plot

 

[mrcorbo]

I found myself in a position recently where I wanted to put in a second home theater setup in my home and 3D support was a factor in every purchase decision I made. But, I was starting from scratch and managed to add the 3D support (or 3D upgrade-ability) at little or no extra cost.

I also understood that I needed to get equipment that all supported HDMI 1.4 in order for it to work, a situation that I think, based on my own experience, means I am a member of an extreme minority of consumers. The constant revisions to the HDMI spec alone have been hugely damaging IMHO to the pubilc's understanding of HDMI given the inherent simplicity of the technology from a users point of view. Then need to freeze on a revision for a few years and hammer out any remaining compatability/handshaking issues before introducing any new features that will necessitate a new revision.

It's for reasons like this that I think 3D adoption will be slowed. It's just too much effort for too little reward right now. They need to make it much easier, much more desirable and much cheaper (not necessarily in that order) than it is right now before it even has a chance to take off. Then add to this the recent uptake in HDTV sales and it starts to look even more grim. There is no way people are going to be inclined to replace all of those sets so soon.

 

[Toaddio]

I agree with Shifty though. Not too long ago we were debating HD TV uptake. Now we're supposed to believe that an even more niche feature will experience rapid proliferation? Seems unlikely to me.

I never made any comments about rapid proliferation.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I never made any comments about rapid proliferation.

While he quoted you, I don't think that part of his comment was directed at you, but at the person who suggested that 3D would be big in the next generation of consoles.

 

[corduroygt]

Given that current gen HD consoles can do 3D, I don't see any reason why the next gen shouldn't be able to. It's not a hugely important feature, but it needs to there as a checkbox.