Full Q/a With Tommy Tallarico Ps3 And 360

[Almasy]

8 million was just an example, point is PS3 won't be able top make up the lead in 2007, and I challenge you to find me ONE analyst who has predicted that they will.

It's easy to throw #'s around for PS3, but teh fact is they will be extremely supply limited, PS2 only sold 500k in the US in the first 2 weeks of it's launch, i due to supply issues. It's doubtful we will even see a european launch in 2006, and it remains to be seen how many units Sony can produce in japan, PS3 has many potential bottlenecks, especially the BR drives.

Most analysts are guessing at 1million-2million sold for PS3 for all of 2006 meanwhile the xbox360 will be in like 40 countries around the world, with a huge line-up of games, and absolutely no supply issues. They will completely outsell PS3 next x-mas season across the globe, simply because sony will not have the supply.

Again, find me one professional analyst who agress with you, and I'll give this argument a little more weight, because as of now EVERYONE is expecting 360 to have the lead through 2007 minimum.

Why do you know as a fact that Sony will have big production problems? In any case, If you truly believe PS3 will only sell one or two million units during 2006 worldwide...then I´m sorry, but this conversation is over. You´re far too hopefull in the X360.

 

[scooby_dooby]

The reason they are getting the more talented teams?? Because everyone from within the industry is well aware about how serious Sony is in regards to remaining number one.... and what their plans are for keeping it that way. Ask ANY developer right now who they think will sell more units of hardware... Again... let me state that Blu-Ray and name recognition will help this cause.

thats funny too, 'everyone realizes how serious sony is about being #1', did I miss something or is MS also not 'serious' abouut becoming #1? What a lame argument.

All the publishers realize how 'serious' sony is... allegedly MS just lost 4billion dollars....sounds like some pretty serious stuff!

 

[trinibwoy]

There have been plenty of threads and news articles about the various analysts, anyone who's following teh subject knows the current predictions. I'm not really into looking up the links to stuff that should basicallybe common knowledge around here...

Ah, found this from the Inq - http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=26588

Through to 2008, the analysts predict that the Xbox 360 will shift 19.6 million units whilst the PlayStation 3 will lag behind with 15.5 million units, and Nintendo's Revolution will shift only 5 million units, based on late 2006 releases for both the PS3 and the Revolution.

That's based on ~ 10 million/year for the 360, don't see that happening but who knows.

 

[Mmmkay]

8 million was just an example, point is PS3 won't be able top make up the lead in 2007, and I challenge you to find me ONE analyst who has predicted that they will.

The Nikko Citigroup report forecasts that the PS3 will overtake the Xbox 360 some time during 2007. (I think they were a little optimistic with their Japan numbers )

 

[scooby_dooby]

Piper Jaffrey:

" According to a new report just published by the firm, the Xbox 360 is expected to lead the industry into the next-generation, not just until the PS3's debut in spring 2006, but beyond into 2008. Sony's new machine, by contrast, will suffer from a stuttering start, selling only one-million units in 2006, before business begins picking up with six-million in 2007 and eventually 8.5 million in 2008. At this point, the PS3 will begin to overtake Microsoft's contraption, by Piper Jaffrey's reckoning. "

I'm not the only one who expects big supply issues in 2006.

Merril Lynch:

"Merrill Lynch predict nine million Xbox 360 sales by end 2006."

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/11/07/tech_digest/

I'm also not the only one who expects 8-9million 360's sold by the end of 06 either.

MMkay - thats prediction looks strange, they are rpedicting a worldwide 2007 launch? With the 360 only managing 9,illion by the end of 2007? Most are expecting ~8-9million for the end of 06. I can't imagine any realistic scenario where the 360 takes until the end of 2007 to sell 9 million units.

 

[mckmas8808]

I didn't overlook it, but from MS's point of view, it's a small price to pay for being able to undercut the PS3's pricepoint for the next however many years...which he totally seems oblivious too.

Price point doesn't mean you will sell more. Check GC vs. PS2.

 

[mckmas8808]

thats funny too, 'everyone realizes how serious sony is about being #1', did I miss something or is MS also not 'serious' abouut becoming #1? What a lame argument.

What about Japan? MS doesn't seem to be pushing the units so far.

 

[Ben-Nice]

The Nikko Citigroup report forecasts that the PS3 will overtake the Xbox 360 some time during 2007. (I think they were a little optimistic with their Japan numbers )

I think that is fairly accurate. MS will close the gap regarding the gaming consoles. But Sony won't be overly concerned because they will make all that money back from the royalties on every single Blu-Ray movie made because they helped design it. Pretty crazy to put all the egg in one basket on Blu-Ray but that is a gamble that could pay HUGE dividends. HD-DVD has little chance because at minimal the PS3 will sell I dunno 40 million. I'm no analyst but I don't think there will be as many HD-DVD players as there is PS3 in the world which could mean big $.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Price point doesn't mean you will sell more. Check GC vs. PS2.

Check out the gamecube's game library. Not a valid comparison.

Check out the aggressive price wars between PS2 and XBOX, and tell me price doesn't matter. Everytime Sony dropeed price on PS2, MS dropped within weeks to match it.

When game libraries are equally compelling, the deciding factor is price.

 

[Ben-Nice]

I'm not the only one who expects big supply issues in 2006.

Yeah there are noooooooo supply issues with the 360. Apparently that won't affect them trying to sell 8 million

 

[mckmas8808]

Check out the gamecube's game library. Not a valid comparison.

Check out the aggressive price wars between PS2 and XBOX, and tell me price doesn't matter. Everytime Sony dropeed price on PS2, MS dropped within weeks to match it.

When game libraries are equally compelling, the deciding factor is price.

Ahhh but that's the thing, we don't know much about the PS3's libary right now. According to Tommy the games he is seeing looks like the Motorstorm and Killzone videos.

I've seen countless amounts of people that said if things like Killzone and Motorstorm are made for the PS3 and look like those videos, then the Xbox 360 is done with. And the thing is around E3 timespan alot of Xbox 360 wanna be owners even said that themselves.

Games like Gears of War and Mass Effect look great, but people tended to like the look of Killzone and the physics in Motorstorm much more.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well that's a whole different argument we don't want to get into, I think both systems will have great games, I bought a 360 cause I really like the current xbox franchises, so you can guess where my taste lies. You're right about PS3 being totally percieved as more powerful right now, but I think that gap will narrow when people see real PS3 games, and real 2nd generation x360 games.

Anyways, price does matter, of course it does, and the Gamecube argument really needs to die cause we all know it's not a valid example.

 

[mckmas8808]

But the GC is a valid example. What it says is even with 1st party games from Nintendo and a lower price it's get stomped apon. Hell look at the DS and PSP (I know they aren't consoles). The PSP is twice the price and has higher games prices yet it sells close to the same as the DS.

I know the games are completely different, but I'm trying to make a basic point.

 

[avaya]

Maybe slightly OT but I'd say these numbers are pretty whack. They estimate 150m consoles total in 6 years.

So they are assuming the market is only going to grow 3-4% over that period. That seems like a very conservative estimate. Are they assuming a bit of a gaming recession mid way through this generation?

The Europe/other figures are also dubious at best. The PS2 has ~75% of the European market at the last count with about 38m units shipped. This means the current European market alone is already hovering around 50m consoles - this is excluding all other regions. Nikko Citigroup estimate ~49m for Europe + others?

Apart from the forecast for the US, I think the Japanese and European/other predictions can be called into serious question.

 

[Nicked]

Analysts, analysts, analysts:

Industry analysts expect Microsoft to ship 1.5-million Xbox 360s worldwide by year-end; down from the previous projected 2.5-million unit estimate.

Wrong twice?
Seems like it.

Anyone else wrong?

Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund has revealed in a recent report that Microsoft probably sold 1.3 million Xbox 360 units for the quarter, missing analysts’ estimates and Goldman Sachs’ own estimate of 1.8 million units. According to Sherlund, sales may have reached 900,000 units in North America, 300,000 in Europe and 100,000 in Asia.

These guys are bad at this.
Or maybe they try to base estimates on publicly known information which doesn't always mirror reality?

Surely no one else made a mistake....

According to a TheStreet.com report, Klasell had previously expected Microsoft to ship 2 million systems worldwide for the holiday season. But, after analyzing media reports and having "conversations with retailers", Klasell has revised his estimate to only 1.2 million Xbox 360s shipped so far

Well, these guys are just analysts who specialise in any number of industries. Surely the actual game publishers would have a better idea!

We don't see them getting to the installed base numbers we had forecast when we gave previous guidance," Jenson said of Xbox 360 shipments.

**Point being, Sony and Microsoft have the best idea of what they'll produce and even then its never certain. Ask one analyst for an answer and it'll be different to the one before them. Lets just wait and see, and hope that shipments of both are great for 2006 onwards so we can all be enjoying these systems**

 

[scooby_dooby]

But the GC is a valid example. What it says is even with 1st party games from Nintendo and a lower price it's get stomped apon. Hell look at the DS and PSP (I know they aren't consoles). The PSP is twice the price and has higher games prices yet it sells close to the same as the DS.

I know the games are completely different, but I'm trying to make a basic point.

It's not, you have no evidence that the GC would not have done twice as bad, if it had a lower price. We have no idea how a higher price would have affected the GC, maybe the price ws the only thing that kept it in the game at all?

 

[Ben-Nice]

It's not, you have no evidence that the GC would not have done twice as bad, if it had a lower price. We have no idea how a higher price would have affected the GC, maybe the price ws the only thing that kept it in the game at all?

What kept the gamecube alive was Japan. The thing with Nintendo is they are VERY good at not losing money off the hardware. The XBOX lost 4 billion dollars. They sold way more Xbox's then gamecube's yet Nintendo made alot more money off the gamecube and MS ummm to put it lightly made none whatsoever.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I would hope Nintendo made some money off their 4th console with 20years in the gaming industry and a massive console brandname behind them.

Point is, saying price doesn't matter and using the GC's success/failure as an example is irrational. 1st of all it's success/failure is relative, 2nd of all, it's game library was paltry compared to it's competitors.

If you want an example of why price matter, watch how Sony continually undercut the XBOX with the PS2. 4 or 5 times over 3 years PS2 dropped the price on their console, forcing MS to drop teh price within weeks. If price doesn't matter why did sony continually try and under-price the XBOX? Why did MS feel the need to immediately match Sony's price?

It's really very simple, a $100 difference is huge. If the cross-platform games are indistinguishable on the 2 platforms, with game libraries that are competitive with eachother, and one console can come in $100 less, that's a huge advantage.

 

[Mmmkay]

MMkay - thats prediction looks strange, they are rpedicting a worldwide 2007 launch? With the 360 only managing 9,illion by the end of 2007? Most are expecting ~8-9million for the end of 06. I can't imagine any realistic scenario where the 360 takes until the end of 2007 to sell 9 million units.

Those columns represent the end of financial years. i.e. FY3/07E means the end of March 2007. They are predicting a launch after March 2006 basically. Also, the rows are not cumulative, so by March 2007 they are predicting global sales of 12,800,000 for the Xbox 360. Any way the report was made in October so there are many market factors not taken into consideration, and they're way off base imho with their Japanese numbers for the 360 and Rev (But oddly not in the same direction ).

Uhh what's this thread about again?!

 

[seismologist]

It's really very simple, a $100 difference is huge. If the cross-platform games are indistinguishable on the 2 platforms, with game libraries that are competitive with eachother, and one console can come in $100 less, that's a huge advantage.

you would think so but like TT said why are people buying the premium 360 over the core system then?
Your talking about $100 difference between the core 360 and the PS3 right?

I dont think price will be that big of a factor at least not right away. If people want a PS3 they're going to buy a PS3. Like me I dont care if the 360 costs $50, I still want a PS3.