Fox confirms huge Blu-ray surge

[Hale]

"We are looking forward to this pivotal year and the ultimate establishment of Blu-ray as the high-definition packaged media standard. In fact, Blu-ray sales performance surpassed HD-DVD for the first time the week of December 24 and did so by an impressive 20 per cent. What's more, by the end of the first quarter our research shows the sales gap widening to Blu-ray outselling HD DVD by a 3.5-to-1 ratio," noted Mike Dunn, President Worldwide, Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108005980.html?.v=1

 

[Qroach]

wrong forum.

 

[London Geezer]

Yeah this should bemoved elsewhere.

But anyway, i guess this is a big "PHEWWW" for Sony... Although i'm not sure we should trust "forecasts" as anything tangible. We'll see...
Bluray always had the advantage of being on every PS3, i guess this will translate in much higher sales of Bluray movies, although lots of people were sceptical...

 

[Sethamin]

That's the most ridiculous looking chart I've ever seen. They extrapolated one data point (out of 9) and continued it out to Infinity. Yeah, that's great methodology there. Since BR outsold HD-DVD for one week (for the first time in a while, it seems), it makes perfect sense that it will keep outselling it by massively increasing margins every single week. And quite conveniently, HD-DVD will apparently never sell any more than they are selling right now. All growth has already been used up. I suspect their "first quarter research" is 1000 monkeys sitting in a room with crayons and graph paper.

If you even slightly believe this PR, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you. And some waterfront property in Kansas...

 

[Onlooker1]

If other PS3 owners are like I am, and I suspect they are, the first thing I did was went onto amazon and ordered a couple of blu-ray movies to "see what the fuss is about". I did the same thing for PSP, bought pirates of the carribbean. And we all know what happened to umd movies.

So I'm not sure the xmas boost from my purchases translates to an ongoing habit. For me, it all depends on what range of titles are going to be out there. It has to be more than just a pick of hollywood action blockbusters as it is right now, otherwise my ongoing purchases are back to dvd format.

 

[expletive]

I'd like to see if these numbers level out as i am sure there were a lot of BR early adopters that were waiting for the PS3 to launch as their player of choice. I think there was probably a bit of pent-up demand for BR that would only be satisfied with the release of the PS3. HD-DVD got their bump upon release becuase there was no PS3 coming down the road.

What would be really useful information is if we could track optical discs vs the competing digital distribution options as I feel the real competition for these formats is not each other, but to establish relevance over the trend of 'soft' media first.

 

[London Geezer]

If other PS3 owners are like I am, and I suspect they are, the first thing I did was went onto amazon and ordered a couple of blu-ray movies to "see what the fuss is about". I did the same thing for PSP, bought pirates of the carribbean. And we all know what happened to umd movies.

Not agreeing with that ridiculous Fox "forecast", cause it is ridiculous, but what exactly does UMD have to do with Bluray?

So, because one format failed, then all other formats from the same company will fail?

How quickly people forget that Sony were also behind CD and DVD...

 

[Zaphod]

Considering that Fox has a vested interest in A Blu-Ray victory, doesn't say where they got their numbers from (they can't have cross-release comparative numbers for their own releases, now - can they?), I think we can safely change [strike]our research shows[/strike] to our PR-department is dreaming about. I find, in particular, the totally stagnant HD-DVD sales in that graph a bit unlikely.

That's not to say Blu-Ray won't solidly overtake HD-DVD by the end of Q1, I just don't trust FOX to be the ones telling me.

 

[valioso]

Not agreeing with that ridiculous Fox "forecast", cause it is ridiculous, but what exactly does UMD have to do with Bluray?

So, because one format failed, then all other formats from the same company will fail?

How quickly people forget that Sony were also behind CD and DVD...

thats not what he said at all.

 

[Zaphod]

BTW: What's the unit on that time-axis supposed to be? Month/Day/What? The chart predicts what sales will look like in 2011? Doesn't really lend much creedence to the quality of the prediction...

 

[Dave Baumann]

As far as the stupid PR wars go, HD DVD appears to be expecting a 14x growth in players and a 40x growth in overall format revenue in 2007:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-07-2007/0004501052&EDATE=

In just nine months time, "The Look and Sound of Perfect(TM)" has struck a chord with consumers, showing strong movie title sales and high attach rates. As of January 5th, there are estimated to be more than 175,000 HD DVD players sold in North America, with new models in high demand. Using Nielsen data and retailer reports for title sales to date, the HD DVD studios projected an annualized attach rate of 28 movies per player. Based on an expected install base of more than 2.5 million players by the end of 2007, the HD DVD Promotional Group estimates HD DVD movie title sales to exceed $600 million in North America for 2007. This is more than 40 times the revenue accrued in 2006 by the format.

Expect a lot of PR posturing...

 

[London Geezer]

Good lord... We're entering the era of monstrously ridiculous PR statements and "charts"...

 

[Sethamin]

Not agreeing with that ridiculous Fox "forecast", cause it is ridiculous, but what exactly does UMD have to do with Bluray?

Well, to be fair, they're both formats that Sony has championed and released hardware that can play them back. However, the critical difference is that other companies are releasing players for Blu-Ray, whereas PSP was the only UMD player out there (AFAIK).

So, because one format failed, then all other formats from the same company will fail?

How quickly people forget that Sony were also behind CD and DVD...

Yes, they were, but with a consortium of other companies. I really don't want to get OT and turn this into a flame war, but every proprietary format Sony has ever released has...well, certainly not failed, but neither have they achieved critical mass: Betamax, MiniDisc, Memory Stick, ATRAC, UMD.

However, I would group Blu-Ray more with the CD/DVD camp in that there are a number of companies behind it, not just Sony. OTOH, neither of those formats had any real competition to be a standard, so in that sense, they're more like the aforementioned formats. So pick the facts you like and extrapolate that into a position.

As far as the stupid PR wars go, HD DVD appears to be expecting a 14x growth in players and a 40x growth in overall format revenue in 2007

I think it would be far to say that we shouldn't post PR statements. If there's some actual bit of news in there, I'm sure other, more trustworthy sites will pick the story up and we can link to those.

 

[patsu]

If other PS3 owners are like I am, and I suspect they are, the first thing I did was went onto amazon and ordered a couple of blu-ray movies to "see what the fuss is about". I did the same thing for PSP, bought pirates of the carribbean.

I am the opposite. In fact, I misplaced my Talladega Night Blu-ray disc somewhere in my house (Have not unwrapped it yet) . But I am switching to Blu-ray rentals. Am also thinking about Casino Royale, Spiderman 3 and Black Hawk Down purchase in time to come.

And we all know what happened to umd movies.

UMD movie is for a different segment and has limited use (on-the-go viewing). Blu-ray is for mainstream viewing habit at home, and during gatherings. They may (or may not) share the same trend.

So I'm not sure the xmas boost from my purchases translates to an ongoing habit.

This is a valid point.

For me, it all depends on what range of titles are going to be out there. It has to be more than just a pick of hollywood action.

They may study their customer profiles and decide that most of them like hollywood action movies. That's why the content mix is skewed right now.

BTW: What's the unit on that time-axis supposed to be? Month/Day/What? The chart predicts what sales will look like in 2011? Doesn't really lend much creedence to the quality of the prediction...

I think 10 means 2006, and 11 means 2007.

 

[Dave Baumann]

I think it would be far to say that we shouldn't post PR statements. If there's some actual bit of news in there, I'm sure other, more trustworthy sites will pick the story up and we can link to those.

Thats why I say we should just expect a lot of PR posturing over the coming months.

 

[London Geezer]

However, I would group Blu-Ray more with the CD/DVD camp in that there are a number of companies behind it, not just Sony.

That's my point really. Matsushita, Philips, Samsung and all the biggest electronics companies are behind Bluray, and that is what will make a difference, not Sony.

Not that i care, i haven't bought any disc-based material (be it CD or DVD) for years now and i certainly won't start now.

All i'm saying is that if Toshiba - basically on their own - can actually "beat" a format backed by Sony, Philips, Samsung, Matsushita and all the others, then kudos to them.

 

[Zaphod]

I think 10 means 2006, and 11 means 2007.

It was a rethorical question, as to point out my general feeling about the quality control of the "predictions" depicted in the chart.

 

[Sethamin]

That's my point really. Matsushita, Philips, Samsung and all the biggest electronics companies are behind Bluray, and that is what will make a difference, not Sony.

As I said, you can look at that way, but you can just as easily say that Sony has never successfully established a format amidst any competition. And Sony is easily Blu-Ray's biggest proponent (or at least, most vocal).

"Format wars" are usually decided in the PR battle before the format is ever launched. Momentum from the being the "perceived winner" usually translates into the actual winner. To use an analogy from the judicial system, things rarely go to trial. If you ever get to the point where multiple competing formats actually launch and there's not a clear knockout from the beginning, it usually means a long battle. I personally foresee a very drawn out and protracted stalemate for years to come. Eventually one or the other will probably come out the winner, but I think that's years and years from now (see also: Betamax and VHS).

 

[patsu]

It was a rethorical question, as to point out my general feeling about the quality control of the "predictions" depicted in the chart.

Ha ha I was actually pretty serious about that date format.

According to the chart title, the more likely interpretation is actually 10 means "Quarter N", and 11 means "Quarter N+1", based on Calendar Year. Some content-related business plan was probably put in place 10 quarters ago.

 

[eDoshin]

I really like my UMD movies .. but I'm quite selective on what I buy (prob would be more inclined to buy the marginal titles if price were not so high). But I cannot imagine buying a DVD version of a new movie if an HD version was available. I dont think DVDs are going to go away anytime soon .. but I just cannot contemplate people forsaking HD movies when they've spent thousands of dollars on a brand new HD plasma/lcd tv.