Post-XMAS HD DVD Sales Surge: #8 ranked HD DVD surpasses #1 Blu-Ray in sales

[Gubbi]

Huh? If it's not anamorphic you have to reduce the vertical resolution (without violating DVD spec). Or do you mean that it's shot at 1.85:1 and remastered to anamorphic 1.78:1 for DVD so they get to use the full vertical resolution compared to a typical 'Hollywood' anamorphic 2:35:1?

Sorry, should have been clearer. What I meant was that it wasn't 2.35:1 or some other "significantly wider than 16:9", resulting in black bars.

The original aspect of the movie is 1.85, don't know if it's cropped on the DVD, but I guess so since it's a perfect 16:9 fit. Looks stunning (sounds good too).

Cheers

 

[pcchen]

For some reason the DVD spec doesn't support 2.21:1 display aspect ratio, despite the fact it's supported in the MPEG-2 spec. I don't know the reason behind this decision.

 

[Zaphod]

For some reason the DVD spec doesn't support 2.21:1 display aspect ratio, despite the fact it's supported in the MPEG-2 spec. I don't know the reason behind this decision.

Perhaps they simply didn't think ahead (or didn't care) about the posibility for wide adoptation of fixed resolution displays that could resolve the increased vertical resolution (even if the physical aspect ratio is taller) within the lifetime of the format. Can't really fault them for that back in 1995-96 when the camps were nagotiating about the particularities of the standard.

 

[Ty]

Well HD DVD players will be down to $300 by end of 2007

Do you have a quote for this? I remember someone saying (CEO?) that it could be in the picture but don't recall him giving hard dates for it. In fact, manufacturers hardly ever give concrete price predictions due to killing off current sales.

The 2nd Gen Toshiba HD-DVD player that was shown at CES will sell for $499.

Also if pcchen is correct about how low margin manufacturers work then it's not them that push the market in one direction or another.

Also, people like to say "who make the first US$100 player wins" but it's not that simple. A US$100 player won't magically appear. Low margin manufacturers (which is the only way to produce a US$100 player) are not going to make players for uncertain markets. They will go for a well-established market because they need the volume to (be able to) drive down the price. So, supposed that one years later, one of the format have a majority (say, 70% of the market) the low margin manufacturers will start producing US$100 players for that format. It's not another way around. The US$100 players will go for the winner, not the winner be decided by the US$100 players.

 

[Capeta]

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=901700&postcount=57

The 2nd gen HD DVD player can already be found for $400 and it was only released a couple months ago. Couple that with what Fujii stated, it doesn't take much to connect the dots. If you can buy a 2nd gen HD DVD player now for $400 why wouldn't you be able to buy one for $300 in 12 months? Also at CES they announced HD DVD players to be released in 2007 from some of the Chinese manufacturers including Alco, Jiangkui/ED Digital, Lite-On, and Shinco as well as highend units from Onkyo and Meridian.

Also I didn't say cheap $100 HD DVD players will appear in 2007 which will decide the war's outcome. I said cheap $300 HD DVD players will speed up HD DVD adoption by end of 2007 so consumers don't have to wait long to transition to HD DVD from their standard DVD buying routine.

 

[Ty]

Oh, ok. So you're not going off of MSRP but rather street prices. Just clarifying what is being compared.

Also not claiming that you were that $100 players would be out in 2007, just that low margin manufacturers might follow pcchen's synopsis - which could very mean they line up behind HD-DVD.

 

[Deleted member 7537]

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

http://www.dvdempire.com/

For the week ending Wed Jan 3rd
HD DVD 44.50%
Blu-ray 55.50%

For the week ending Wed Jan 10th
HD DVD 42.16%
Blu-ray 57.84%

For the week ending Wed Jan 17th
HD DVD 42.30%
Blu-ray 57.70%

For the week ending Wed Jan 24th
HD DVD 39.01%

 

[Sxotty]

http://www.dvdempire.com/

Can you provide any more relevant link?

 

[Mintmaster]

So I guess the "PS3 surge" theory may have some legs (not that it's confirmed by any means). HD-DVD may still have some fight left.

Standalone players will definately have the biggest impact. When PS2 came out, DVD players barely cost any less and it was a big reason to buy a PS2. Fast forward a couple years and players cost a fraction of the PS2, and more importantly nobody plays DVD's in there anyway.

 

[Geo]

The question becomes how much of a lead does it take to make one side or the other wave the white flag? For their previous supporters to start jumping ship to the competition? "Winning" isn't about a lead. Winning is about driving the other fellow out of your market niche. (can't say "kill", because for instance Beta continued to survive as a professional format for another 20 years or so).

 

[Ty]

The question becomes how much of a lead does it take to make one side or the other wave the white flag? For their previous supporters to start jumping ship to the competition? "Winning" isn't about a lead. Winning is about driving the other fellow out of your market niche. (can't say "kill", because for instance Beta continued to survive as a professional format for another 20 years or so).

I think Beta had two factors that helped it survive; better quality and the Sony brandname in the professional sector. Toshiba/HD-DVD has neither. That is, HD-DVD doesn't have better quality than BR and Toshiba is not active in that sector.

But only time will tell if the stalemate continues or one falls by the wayside.

 

[Capeta]

I think Beta had two factors that helped it survive; better quality and the Sony brandname in the professional sector. Toshiba/HD-DVD has neither. That is, HD-DVD doesn't have better quality than BR and Toshiba is not active in that sector.

But only time will tell if the stalemate continues or one falls by the wayside.

Toshiba doesn't need better quality if they have better prices and equal quality. As of right now they've got better prices AND better quality. Then there's the TL 51GB HD DVDs, double sided 100GBs etc etc and it becomes a moot point which one has superior specs. One of the biggest factors that killed Betamax was price similar reason to why Apple's computers were so expensive back in the day compared to PCs.

 

[Arwin]

Fast forward a couple years and players cost a fraction of the PS2, and more importantly nobody plays DVD's in there anyway.

If you say so. I haven't any market research figures to back it up, but I know many people who like me have never bought a standalone DVD player and just stuck with their PS2, and I know many kids too that have a PS2 they also use as DVD player. A girl that is renting a room in my house actually also just has a PS2 - and while she does also play games (she finished my copy of God of War recently), she also watches DVD on it.

I think it's a popular fad these days to say that 'nobody plays DVDs in there anyway'. But I doubt its validity very strongly. And if you take it literally, I have just proven it wrong, too.

 

[Ty]

Toshiba doesn't need better quality if they have better prices and equal quality.

To survive in the professional market (which is what geo and I were speaking about), better prices won't help - you also need to be established in that sector which Toshiba isn't. However, better pricing certainly is extremely important in the mass market though.

As of right now they've got better prices AND better quality.

I expect the price on HD-DVD standalone players to maintain their price lead for awhile. Toshiba is committing a lot of resources (now that they were forced to sell SED off to Canon) behind HD-DVD.

However, HD-DVD in terms of PQ does not seem to have a lead in quality anymore. Or if it does, it's extremely slight. The lead in PQ evaporated with the release of the PS3 and the Samsung firmware update.

Then there's the TL 51GB HD DVDs, double sided 100GBs etc etc and it becomes a moot point which one has superior specs.

Much like the balleyhooed 200GB BR discs, I'll reserve judgement on the TL 51GB HD-DVD discs working in current players as changing bit size is a pretty scary idea. Some players may adapt to it well, others may not.

One of the biggest factors that killed Betamax was price similar reason to why Apple's computers were so expensive back in the day compared to PCs.

Pr0n is always cited as the reason Beta lost to VHS. That and longer recording times. Consumers were willing to sacrifice the bit of PQ Beta had over VHS for longer tape times and pr0n.

 

[Capeta]

To survive in the professional market (which is what geo and I were speaking about), better prices won't help - you also need to be established in that sector which Toshiba isn't. However, better pricing certainly is extremely important in the mass market though.

That's true for Betamax but HD DVD doesn't need the professional market to survive since it'll survive quite well in the consumer market with it's lower prices.

I expect the price on HD-DVD standalone players to maintain their price lead for awhile. Toshiba is committing a lot of resources (now that they were forced to sell SED off to Canon) behind HD-DVD.

I don't think their transfer of their SED joint venture to Canon has much to do with the price of HD DVD players. They transferred their SED joint ownership because of legal issues with patents that were only granted to Canon subsidaries and since CanonToshiba SED isn't a true Canon subsidary they had no choice. It had nothing to do with finance. I wouldn't be surprised if Toshiba still financed a lot of the continuing R&D for SED.

However, HD-DVD in terms of PQ does not seem to have a lead in quality anymore. Or if it does, it's extremely slight. The lead in PQ evaporated with the release of the PS3 and the Samsung firmware update.

Actually the lead is still there. Most of the BR PQ improvements came from the 50GB discs which there are very few. Most of the 25GB releases are still inferior to the 30GB HD DVDs PS3 and Samsung firmware update or not.

Much like the balleyhooed 200GB BR discs, I'll reserve judgement on the TL 51GB HD-DVD discs working in current players as changing bit size is a pretty scary idea. Some players may adapt to it well, others may not.

Ditto, I was just making the point that going with specs does not guarantee which one will be better because the specs are constantly changing at least on the HD DVD side. If HD DVD does indeed get the 51GB to market then there is no capacity advantage of 50GB BDs.

Pr0n is always cited as the reason Beta lost to VHS. That and longer recording times. Consumers were willing to sacrifice the bit of PQ Beta had over VHS for longer tape times and pr0n.

Yeah but I've yet to see any proof that that was indeed the case. Betamax also lost because nobody was allowed to make Betamax VCRs except SONY themselves similar to Apple computers back in the day compared to generic PCs. That kept them expensive and so they sold less.

 

[Ty]

That's true for Betamax but HD DVD doesn't need the professional market to survive since it'll survive quite well in the consumer market with it's lower prices.

Oh, neither of us was saying that HD-DVD is going to lose to BR. We were just discussing the hypothetical situation that if it did, could it survive in the professional sector ala Betamax. I think both geo and I agree that the outcome is far from being decided.

I don't think their transfer of their SED joint venture to Canon has much to do with the price of HD DVD players. They transferred their SED joint ownership because of legal issues with patents that were only granted to Canon subsidaries and since CanonToshiba SED isn't a true Canon subsidary they had no choice. It had nothing to do with finance. I wouldn't be surprised if Toshiba still financed a lot of the continuing R&D for SED.

I was just saying that now that SED is out of the picture for Toshiba, they will want/need to fully put all their resources behind HD-DVD. Any budgetary monies allocated for SED, could be moved over to HD-DVD, strengthening their position.

Actually the lead is still there. Most of the BR PQ improvements came from the 50GB discs which there are very few. Most of the 25GB releases are still inferior to the 30GB HD DVDs PS3 and Samsung firmware update or not.

Yes, this is true. If BR discs are still coming out on 25GB and not using VC-1, then the HD-DVD version should be better.

 

[Mintmaster]

If you say so. I haven't any market research figures to back it up, but I know many people who like me have never bought a standalone DVD player and just stuck with their PS2, and I know many kids too that have a PS2 they also use as DVD player.

Well actually, I'm one of those people too. However, I don't buy or watch many DVDs, and if I did then I'd buy a standalone player.

The sales volume of PS2, as huge as it is, is far below that of DVD players. Couple that with the fact that PS3 is not going to hit mainstream prices (~$200) anytime soon and it's unlikely it will make a big enough dent before cheap standalone players come out in maybe a year or so. I think DVD players had to drop to around $150 before they blew away VHS.

 

[bloodbob]

Yes, this is true. If BR discs are still coming out on 25GB and not using VC-1, then the HD-DVD version should be better.

Why would a 25 GB H.264 video be worse then the HD-DVD version??

 

[Arwin]

Well actually, I'm one of those people too. However, I don't buy or watch many DVDs, and if I did then I'd buy a standalone player.

The sales volume of PS2, as huge as it is, is far below that of DVD players. Couple that with the fact that PS3 is not going to hit mainstream prices (~$200) anytime soon and it's unlikely it will make a big enough dent before cheap standalone players come out in maybe a year or so. I think DVD players had to drop to around $150 before they blew away VHS.

But any development that makes BluRay players cheaper, also makes the PS3 cheaper. And while that curve for the BluRay players is going down and will eventually overtake the PS3, it may take a while before their respective values match. This time, after all, the PS3 made it to market as a BluRay player rather early in the cycle.

 

[Mintmaster]

First of all, I don't think there's any inherent reason for Blu-Ray standalone players to cost $1000. The CE companies are just milking it because the buyers right now are videophiles that are only slightly price sensitive. In other words, additional sales of a $500 player wouldn't outweigh the $500 less profit. Once consumers start wanting lower prices and CE competition kicks in, the prices will drop fast.

Second of all, by "standalone players" I didn't exclusively mean BR players. HD-DVD should heavily undercut the PS3's in a year or so. Right now if you're interested in HD movies, the difference in value between Toshiba's players and the PS3 is similar. The former gives you very high quality DVD scaling and fits the HT decor, but the latter gives you games ability too.

I think the significance of HD-DVD's early lead is that it didn't die and is unlikely to do so now. I'm not an expert, but from what I've read HD-DVD has a good chance of reaching mainstream first, and it may coincide with the time that HDTV sales outnumber SDTV sales.