Final confirmed Jan NPD's

[Arwin]

How about this?
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?p=908871#106


and mine in the same old thread too!
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?p=908871#109

Yeah, some useful comments there.

I like this one:

And MS fans will be asking, "How does the PS3's January 2007 sales compare to the Xbox 360's January 2007 sales" That is the one stinker of releasing later: As nice as it is to compare, "Same relative time after release" from a market position what really matters is, "How fast am I closing the gap?"

But January, let alone March, won't be telling us much. NPD December 2007 will give us our first big snapshot unless something crazy happens with one of the consoles (360 sales tank, PS3 gets red hot in EU, Wii gets out of control, etc)

 

[Cheezdoodles]

i don't see it happening. i think well actually see an INCREASE in march (and maybe even february because of VF5). from then on, i think well see numbers higher than january as more games are released. Feb has VF5, Tekken 5 DR and F1 CE. March as Motorstorm, MLB 2K7, NBA Street HC, FEAR, Def Jam Icon, Oblivion and SC DA. April has R6 Vegas, MLB The Show. May has Saints Row and Lair. and June is another big month with Heavenly Sword, Ninja Gaiden Sigma, GRAW2, Warhawk, Rogue Warrior and Singstar..

Hmm.. I dont see your theory happening. This is the launch period, sony should be able to sell 2 million consoles without even having a single game, thats how big the userbase is. (Or as Phil HArrison said, we would sell 5 million ps3's without having games).

Out of the 21 titles you mentioned 5-6 of are exclusive. The rest is multiplattform, where half the other titles, is allready out on the X360. I cannot see why on earth this should give it a big boost. If the multiplattform titles are of interest, you got a cheaper alternative with more or less no difference graphically..

I dont belive the exclusives that is coming the first half of this year are big system sellers, ofcourse they might turn out to be brilliant, but right now, they dont have enough hype to be killeraps.

(Btw HS is not coming this june btw, Rogue Warrior probably isnt either).

 

[djskribbles]

Hmm.. I dont see your theory happening. This is the launch period, sony should be able to sell 2 million consoles without even having a single game, thats how big the userbase is. (Or as Phil HArrison said, we would sell 5 million ps3's without having games).

Out of the 21 titles you mentioned 5-6 of are exclusive. The rest is multiplattform, where half the other titles, is allready out on the X360. I cannot see why on earth this should give it a big boost. If the multiplattform titles are of interest, you got a cheaper alternative with more or less no difference graphically..

I dont belive the exclusives that is coming the first half of this year are big system sellers, ofcourse they might turn out to be brilliant, but right now, they dont have enough hype to be killeraps.

(Btw HS is not coming this june btw, Rogue Warrior probably isnt either).

you expect sales to be high, even if theres arguably only 1 (now 2) decent games available, just because its a PlayStation? things have changed since the PS2 was launched; there is steep competition now, so comparing it to the PS2 is not fair. You'd be surprised how many Sony fans are waiting to buy PS3's once more games are released. Why buy it now when theres little available, especially at $600?

out of the 21 titles i mentioned, 9 are exclusives, 1 is a timed exclusive, 1 of them has extra content the 360 version didn't have (SC DA). Oblivion also offers the base game as well as the expansion packs and slightly improved graphics. having good titles in each month alone should increase PS3 sales, even if more than half are multiplat. not everyone owns a 360 you know.

i'd say Motorstorm, Heavenly Sword, Ninja Gaiden Sigma and Warhawk have quite a bit of hype surrounding them. and i've seen many people interested in R6 Vegas even though it's already out on 360. and until you can prove otherwise, Heavenly Sword is scheduled for June 2007 release.
http://ps3.ign.com/index/release.html

 

[djskribbles]

actually, 10 are exclusives.

 

[djskribbles]

bah, no edit?

Lair also has quite a bit of hype surrounding it.

 

[Moonblade]

I'm just wondering if this type of lacluster sales in US/Japan will lead to any desperate $100 price slashes by Sony on PS3 anytime soon.

Probably not until at least after the Europe launch..

With that $600 price tag, sony made the gamesindustry very interesting. I wonder how sony will react to these salesnumbers. Were they expecting this or not at all?

Were they too arrogant and ambitious, expecting the PS3 to sell well with a $600 price tag for a long time? I'm going to be very disappointed if that's the case. They only had to learn from their past mistakes (PSX) that woudn't happen. It's like coca cola suddenly decided to stop making soda and start with expensive champagne, expecting their fanbase to drink champagne every day instead of pepsi.

Or did they know they wouldn't close the gap with a next-gen console that's more expensive. Perhaps a $100 (or more) price slash within 6 months is going 'according to plan' or perhaps it's a desperate move.

 

[baten]

I think that Sony does not worry too much about those sales, as they still do sell a LOT of PS2 (and some PSP on the side). If the PS2 was dead and they had no PSP, the lack of sales of the PS3 might have meant trouble, but as it is, I dont think they mind too much.
Sony is for the long run with the PS3, and I think their point is that everybody that had a PS2 will eventually get a PS3 (when the price is right, when the games are right). For some people it can be 4-5 years down the line.
For me, for instance, it will be one year from now, after the PS2 games will start to dry.

I guess Sony's logic is that if every PS2 owner will eventually get a PS3, they cannot loose the race, even if it means not being the leader for a couple of years. The only thing they have to do now is to make sure they have all the good old franchises still on the system, and they are sure to keep their customers.

MS job is tougher I think, as they have to win new customers for the system.

 

[Qroach]

actually, 10 are exclusives.

VF5
Tekken 5 DR
F1 CE
Motorstorm
MLB 2K7
NBA Street HC
FEAR
Def Jam Icon
Oblivion
SC DA
R6 Vegas
MLB The Show
Saints Row
Lair
Heavenly Sword
Ninja Gaiden Sigma
GRAW2
Warhawk
Rogue Warrior
Singstar

Out of these 9 games are exclusive. Virtua fighter 5 is not exclusive. Considering the commercial lists "coming soon for Xbox 360". I don't think the 360 version will be far behind. I don't think any of these games will be enough to help ps3 get by the sticker shock consumers have with it. I think lots of people are starting to realize , they won't get one at it's current price, and even then the higher price isn't justified by anything they see visually in the games . Anyway there really isn't any point in matching up exclusives between the two platforms. That's not the problem here. The problem is price...

Also you are not factoring in any moves by the competition. IF MS drops price or introduces a lower priced SKU, this will have a drastic impact on sony regarding the PS3 price or how the games help sales. Right now PS3 is too expensive. 360 is also too expensive to make it's numbers significantly better (they need to drop price to increase sales further).

I can only hope people in europe realize this too and don't drop cash on the (currently overpriced PS3) in that region.everyone needs to send a message that prices like this aren't acceptable. I'd be willing to wager that MS drops price before the PS3 launches in that region just to try and add some fuel to the fire.

About two years ago I can remember arguing with Vince about the potential higher price of PS3 and how it would affect sales He thought it would sell out for the first 6 -8 months no matter what the price was (to the hardcore consumer). That was clearly incorrect. It's pretty amazing to see what people are writing to put this in a more positive light. I can't wait to hear the 1up show for this week. I'm sure shane will try to spin this in an interesting way

 

[Jov]

Blu-ray

Given Sony gambled everything including the kitchen sink on BR and made gaming almost seems secondary and the lack of content, the PS3 sales figure is acceptable, but definitely not great.

We know Sony's strategy is to win the next-gen HD format war and once that is achieved then it will be à la PS2, and the Xbox360 will remind 'some' of us how the Dreamcast's (no flame plz) not included the next-gent media at the time. It's still a big 'if' for BR to triumph tho .

Everything is still hanging in the balance as the war between BR & HD-DVD is just heating up so will have to keep an eye on that front for the influence of future console sales.

Edited: clarification.

 

[spwolf]

VF5
Tekken 5 DR
F1 CE
Motorstorm
MLB 2K7
NBA Street HC
FEAR
Def Jam Icon
Oblivion
SC DA
R6 Vegas
MLB The Show
Saints Row
Lair
Heavenly Sword
Ninja Gaiden Sigma
GRAW2
Warhawk
Rogue Warrior
Singstar

Out of these 9 games are exclusive. Virtua fighter 5 is not exclusive. Considering the commercial lists "coming soon for Xbox 360". I don't think the 360 version will be far behind. I don't think any of these games will be enough to help ps3 get by the sticker shock consumers have with it. I think lots of people are starting to realize , they won't get one at it's current price, and even then the higher price isn't justified by anything they see visually in the games . Anyway there really isn't any point in matching up exclusives between the two platforms. That's not the problem here. The problem is price...

Also you are not factoring in any moves by the competition. IF MS drops price or introduces a lower priced SKU, this will have a drastic impact on sony regarding the PS3 price or how the games help sales. Right now PS3 is too expensive. 360 is also too expensive to make it's numbers significantly better (they need to drop price to increase sales further).

You are mixing things left and right.

VF5 is exclusive for 6 months. Thats pretty much same as exclusive.

There is also big difference in multiplatform games - it is different when they are released for PS3, 6 months after 360 introduction, or at the same time. Only 4 million people in the USA have 360. That is pretty minor number. On the other hand, >40mil have PS2. There is clearly an upgrade path there.

PS3 is not expensive, neither is Xbox 360. If PS3 costs $850 to produce, and they sell it at $600, should customer feel bad about being shorthanded? Thats pretty unrealistic there, as well as expectations of some wild price cuts, while both companies are losing money.

 

[Qroach]

Given Sony gambled everything including the kitchen sink on BR and made gaming almost seems secondary and the lack of content, the PS3 sales figure is acceptable, but definitely not great.

We know Sony's strategy is to win the next-gen HD format war and once that is achieved then it will be à la PS2, and the Xbox360 will remind 'some' of us how the Dreamcast's (no flame plz). It's still a big 'if' tho.

Everything is still hanging in the balance as the war between BR & HD-DVD is just heating up so will have to keep an eye on that front for the influence of future console sales.

I don't see how the 360 can remind you of Dreamcast when clearly developer support for this platform hasn't dwindled in favor of the more expensive PS3. What caused Dreamcast to die was obvious. Lack of developer support from major third parties from the get go, and then the developers the did have left for the PS2. This isn't happening this time around.

 

[Jov]

I don't see how the 360 can remind you of Dreamcast when clearly developer support for this platform hasn't dwindled in favor of the more expensive PS3. What caused Dreamcast to die was obvious. Lack of developer support from major third parties from the get go, and then the developers the did have left for the PS2. This isn't happening this time around.

Chill Qroachy. Not debating that here, all I am implying is *if* Sony pulls off BR to be the next-get format, some people will think MS made the same mistake as DC of not including the larger capacity media (be it BR or HD-DVD) and feature (HD movie playback) as standard.

 

[Qroach]

You are mixing things left and right.

No, I'm not. Btw you're constant spinning of everything isn't a great way to start posting.

VF5 is exclusive for 6 months. Thats pretty much same as exclusive.

we don't know that. Do you really think sega plans to run TV ads for virtua fighter for 6 months? Because the current ads say "coming soon to Xbox 360" and they wouldn't do this if it was coming 6 months down the road. Imo that's common sense.

There is also big difference in multiplatform games - it is different when they are released for PS3, 6 months after 360 introduction, or at the same time. Only 4 million people in the USA have 360. That is pretty minor number. On the other hand, >40mil have PS2. There is clearly an upgrade path there.

That argument holds no water whatsoever. Multiplatform games isn't any sort of advantage unless they appear on a platform first. We're talking about PS3 and Xbox 360, NOT ps2. I see how you tried to spin that. Sorry, but it doesn't work.

PS3 is not expensive, neither is Xbox 360. If PS3 costs $850 to produce, and they sell it at $600, should customer feel bad about being shorthanded? Thats pretty unrealistic there, as well as expectations of some wild price cuts, while both companies are losing money.

Again this argument makes no sense. are you thinking this through? They are BOTH expensive, period. I don't know what you are getting at here, but don't waste our time unless you are serious about discussing, and not just "defending your fav platform at all costs".

 

[Jov]

Not quite what I expected for PS3, but I guess it can't be helped. Luckily, all of it's problems are transitory (high price, lack of games, lack of "hype", etc.) whereas all of it's opposition's problems are more or less permanent (no next-gen media, no built-in HDD, etc.) I still expect a PS3 victory when its all said and done. Xbox 360's strength is a bit surprising, and could mean good things for MS in the US market. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that there will be a fight for number 1 in the US, but its weakness elsewhere should still give the ultimate win to Sony. As for Wii, it's impressive in the sense that PS2 is impressive, which is to say it hardly matters at all. It could be fully expected that it does well immediately but it's also fully expected to fall by the wayside later on.

Agreed if it pans out the way Sony envisioned, but consumers dictates the market voting with their purchases. If Wii or X360 [games] dominates in sales, then the advantages the PS3 (more specifically utilising BR for bigger and richer games) will not make it this generation's primary platform at any stage of the cycle. Similar to how the original Xbox never reach its potential beside the fact MS cut its life short.

 

[22psi]

Report from Financial Times:

Nintendo‘s Wii video games console has soared past Microsoft’s Xbox 360 in sales and opened a big lead over Sony ’s premium-priced rival, the PlayStation3.

Sales momentum for the Wii, which was launched last November, is so strong that many analysts are raising their outlook for how well it will succeed in drawing entire families into video gaming.


ADVERTISEMENT
Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, now predicts that by 2011, one-third of all Japanese households and 30 per cent of all US households will own a Wii.

In the US, where it was widely assumed the Xbox 360 had established a leadership position in the current round of “console warsâ€￾, NPD Group research showed that 436,000 Wii machines were sold in January against 294,000 for the Microsoft model, which has been on the market a year longer and outsold the Wii in December.

The Wii continues to sell out on delivery in electronics stores in the US, Europe and Japan, and changes hands on auction websites at an average 35 per cent premium to the usual retail price of $250. Potential buyers in Tokyo queue for up to three hours to stake their claim on forthcoming shipments.

According to NPD Group research on the US games market, only 244,000 PlayStation3 units were sold in January despite the machine’s wide availability and offers of free games to console buyers from many retailers.

More: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/58c00a80-c1a9-11db-ae23-000b5df10621.html

 

[Corwin_B]

We know Sony's strategy is to win the next-gen HD format war and once that is achieved then it will be à la PS2, and the Xbox360 will remind 'some' of us how the Dreamcast's (no flame plz). It's still a big 'if' tho.

Now that those numbers are out, it absolutely boggles my mind that anyone could still go the "Dreamcast" excuse. That amount of spin could probably power a middle-sized city for a good time if we could harness its energy.

 

[Geo]

I tend to think that a high price does not combine well with an uninspiring launch lineup. But the games lineup will continue to improve, and that's going to help. The challenge they might have tho, is I sense a certain amount of "chicken" being played right now on price, as to who will blink first --Sony or a significant portion of their base that's dug in and waiting for a price cut? But then that improving games lineup has an impact there as well; as that gets better and the ZOMGs of their PS3-owning friends increase, will they crack and buy or continue to hope for lower prices?

 

[Jov]

Now that those numbers are out, it absolutely boggles my mind that anyone could still go the "Dreamcast" excuse. That amount of spin could probably power a middle-sized city for a good time if we could harness its energy.

Not what you're implying. Didn't say the X360 == DC, but *if* BR wins, thus PS3 is the dominant platform then some people here and elsewhere will link the lack of next-gent media as the reason for it failing to be #1.

 

[TheChefO]

Does MS really want to get into a price drop war with Nintendo.

I don't think Nintendo really cares about what Sony or MS charge for their consoles. They will ride the full price train until the wheels fall off.

Numbers:

Wow.

Five ... weeks...

I, like a few others, find it amusing the level of spin that these numbers have stired up. Guys, please steer clear of the mobile homes. Insurance companies have been hit hard enough recently, and I don't another rate increase.

These numbers make zero sense. If Sony shipped 1 million by the end of the year, how the heck did they not sell out by now? Where are all these ps3's hiding??

Good luck in EU Sony. You'll need it.

Nintendo - sign an additional manufacturer - asap.

MS - Congrats on the sales volume although it was a bit inflated given the 5 week period.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony are probably smarting from this, and hopefully that's a really good thing. In the past they had offered great ideas and not delivered. PSP has been severely hampered by lack of interest. Sony's platforms have loads of potential, but they don't make it into anything, Sony need to start fighting back, which means making a huge effort to develop original games, better services, get all the funky peripherals out there, etc. Hopefully this'll spur them on to do something, rather than sit back selling hardware and not care too much about improving the service to end users. Kit PSP out with all it's extra (GPS? Tilt? They were 'coming soon' two flippin' years ago!) and cross-over with a super-dooper PSN online service, feeding content to both platforms, with a fantastic EyeToy whatevermajig attachment for PS3 and original games+applications, and full-on network gaming features. If everything stays as it is, Sony deserve to drop behind big-time.