Final confirmed Jan NPD's

[inefficient]

Is it really? 360 moved 1.8million in the last 3 months, predominantly at $399. Is it really unreasonable to expect the brand new Sony, which had a 5:1 advantage in install base, to move at least 1.5-2million @ $499 before becoming supply limited??

You conveniently compare the $400 Premium Xbox to the $500 cheap PS3. When all reports show that the $600 PS3 SKU currently is selling better - just as the premium sold better for 360.

And it was not a 5:1 install base advantage in in the US. It was only 3:1.

You seem to think people "don't want" a PS3. But if forum whining is any indication, they just "can't afford a PS3". It's a significant difference.

The champain must be flowing at MS head quarters right now. I don't think this can be stated enough MS just handed sony its first defeat in a decade on the console front.

Maybe once they beat the PS2 numbers they can move up to champagne.

 

[spwolf]

I'm just wondering if this type of lacluster sales in US/Japan will lead to any desperate $100 price slashes by Sony on PS3 anytime soon.

Probably not until at least after the Europe launch..

by june, it will be free

 

[spwolf]

p.s. PSP on the up, despite talks of total failure by now? Both US and Japan numbers are up...

 

[nonamer]

Is it really? 360 moved 1.8million in the last 3 months, predominantly at $399. Is it really unreasonable to expect the brand new Sony, which had a 5:1 advantage in install base, to move at least 1.5-2million @ $499 before becoming supply limited??

Not to mention it's the cheapest BR player on the market?

Where did all these arguments dissapear to??

If you can find the $500 PS3 right now, you really should get $1200. The lack of $500 PS3s were definitely a screw up on Sony part, and if they had shipped enough of those in Jan, they wouldn't have finished third.

 

[inefficient]

If you can find the $500 PS3 right now, you really should get $1200. The lack of $500 PS3s were definitely a screw up on Sony part, and if they had shipped enough of those in Jan, they wouldn't have finished third.

I don't think it was a screw up. They lose more money on the $500 version thats why they want to limit it. Same with the 360 launch.

To put it in perspective, they could have released all $300 PS3 and not finished third as well. But it would not have been a empty victory.

 

[spwolf]

I expect Wii to become a last-gen port box, or more specifically a PS2 port box. I doubt very many exclusive games are coming to the Wii considering the continuing strength of the PS2 as well.

not so sure about that... right now yes, but with strong sales of Wii, I think publishers might like getting into cheaper development for big rewards.

Which is another problem Wii will face - will anyone spend enough time and effort to create great game for Wii? Graphics does matter - no reason that Wii game shouldnt look better than GC games!

One thing for sure is that if current market situation was known 2 years ago, there would be a lot more support for Wii from 3rd parties, and less for PS3, so luckily, nobody predicted it.

 

[inefficient]

not so sure about that... right now yes, but with strong sales of Wii, I think publishers might like getting into cheaper development for big rewards.

"Publisher" driven games tend to be total crap.

 

[Rangers]

Spwolf you're spinning

From the other side, 360 has more price flexibility, a price drop is a surety only a question of how aggressive, and a killer lineup incoming this year. Halo 3 is unrivaled for hype, which means it will be tough to stop 360 from having another great holiday in 2007. In fact, it's difficult to imagine it not outselling PS3 in 2007, which really makes an uphill climb tougher for Sony when you run the numbers. When you come up with some lofty scenario, say, PS3 sells 200k more a month than 360 starting today, it still takes you so many months just to catch the 360 base. If 360 is 3.6m ahead, it takes you 18 months. Which puts you near the end of 2008. Now take that same scenario and say 360 sells more in 2007, now you are really in trouble.

In the USA, I mean.

In Japan, PS3 sales are disappointing so far we can say, and in EU, we will see but dont count your chickens before they hatch. That high price is even higher in Europe and sure to be a long term barrier.

PS3 might do best to hope that Wii is indeed a novelty act. Then they could eventually move to secure Japan, a place where Xbox cant compete.

 

[ninzel]

Does MS really want to get into a price drop war with Nintendo.

 

[iceberg187]

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=8143

On the hardware front, one particularly notable statistic was the Xbox 360's approximately 250,000 hardware units sold in January,

January 2006 xbox360 sales - 250k (supply constrained)

January 2007 PS3 sales - 244k (not supply constrained)


January last year was a 4 week month. This year was a 5 week month. Not good looks for Sony at all.

 

[spwolf]

Spwolf you're spinning

From the other side, 360 has more price flexibility, a price drop is a surety only a question of how aggressive, and a killer lineup incoming this year. Halo 3 is unrivaled for hype, which means it will be tough to stop 360 from having another great holiday in 2007. In fact, it's difficult to imagine it not outselling PS3 in 2007, which really makes an uphill climb tougher for Sony when you run the numbers. When you come up with some lofty scenario, say, PS3 sells 200k more a month than 360 starting today, it still takes you so many months just to catch the 360 base. If 360 is 3.6m ahead, it takes you 18 months. Which puts you near the end of 2008. Now take that same scenario and say 360 sells more in 2007, now you are really in trouble.

In the USA, I mean.

In Japan, PS3 sales are disappointing so far we can say, and in EU, we will see but dont count your chickens before they hatch. That high price is even higher in Europe and sure to be a long term barrier.

PS3 might do best to hope that Wii is indeed a novelty act. Then they could eventually move to secure Japan, a place where Xbox cant compete.

I can spin it any way you wish, was very good salesman for a while
But so can you


Consider though, that in Jan, 360 had Lost Planet and Gears, while PS3 had 0 games released. 0. Thats what I am talking about. Heck, it wont be much better in Feb either, with VF5 coming very late, but in March we should be able to see how PS3 does in the USA.

I dont think that in Japan, PS3 will do better than Wii for few years now. However it will do considerably better than 360, at any time. Even at this rate and conservative side, we are looking at 1.5-2million units extra compared to 360, for the launch+year.

So if you take USA+Japan into equation, PS3 can catch up quickly. It is not even matter of catching up right away, rather catching up eventually, since that is what publishers will plan for.

Thats all a lot of speculation really - content is the king.

Which is why Europe will do well with PS3, where PS brand is strong, and they are getting some important games there, like Singstar, which is huge, and which is completly new experience. Free online wont hurt either.

I think Europe will be least problematic of them all, since Singstar is going to be apsolutly huge. Thats going to change a lot of things, since PSN will become a lot more advanced platform than Live.


But again, it depends on the games and content. Everything else is just wild, wild speculation from fans of either console.

 

[quest55720]

Does MS really want to get into a price drop war with Nintendo.

I would say the other way around a price drop forces sony to. That could be the spark the PS3 needs if I am MS I stay put for now no need to risk helping sony.

 

[Fafalada]

"Publisher" driven games tend to be total crap.

QFT.
I can think of amusing tales (from recent experience):
-Looks at a game developed exclusively for another platform (say, a handheld)
Q: "How long for you to make a Wii version, without any changes?"-

I expect Wii to become a last-gen port box, or more specifically a PS2 port box.

From what I know, that's pretty much what it already is. But it has a chance to eventually swap places (making PS2/PSP become the Wii port boxes), if it will continue selling this well.

 

[ROG27]

I don't think Sony cares if they are the dominant box this generation. Even if they sell 40 million consoles over the span of 5 years instead of a 100 million, that guarantees that bluray will become the dominant movie format. If bluray equals the dominant movie format, automatic $$$ for Sony, regardless of their position in the console race. And it all comes down to $$$.

 

[Inane_Dork]

I don't think Sony cares if they are the dominant box this generation. Even if they sell 40 million consoles over the span of 5 years instead of a 100 million, that guarantees that bluray will become the dominant movie format. If bluray equals the dominant movie format, automatic $$$ for Sony, regardless of their position in the console race. And it all comes down to $$$.

There is truth to that, but the stakes are higher than that. Sony doesn't want that prime family room real estate to go to anyone else. Sony and MS are fighting to be the media hub for the next gen family. If you think Sony is satisfied with getting Blu-Ray to dominate, you're not thinking big enough.

Gaming is really just the foot in the door at this point.

 

[22psi]

I appologize in advance, but this is too funny not to be posted:

 

[quest55720]

That is awesome almost as good as the famous DS it prints money gif.

 

[Rolf N]

This thread really has everything except for one thing: the context of the prior month's sales.

   System        Dec NPD    Jan NPD    trend
Wii               604,170    435,503    -28%
PlayStation 2   1,394,007    299,352    -79%
Xbox 360        1,131,886    293,774    -74%
PlayStation 3     490,682    243,554    -50%
Nintendo DS     1,598,593    238,869    -85%
PSP               953,182    210,719    -78%
GBA                ???       179,482     n/a
GameCube           ???        33,806     n/a
Xbox                5,493        833    -85%

You're very welcome.
Otherwise this thread is enough of a freak show as is. I have nothing to add

 

[Acert93]

For the PS3 numbers, one way to look at it is that is that US consumers are still spending more dollars on PS3 hardware than they are on Wii hardware. Even if you count all units sold as the cheaper $500 model, it's still $122mil spent on a PS3 vs $109mil spent on Wii.

Ok, that is one way to look at it. I am not sure that is relevant though in the way you are suggesting--quite the opposite IMO.

Example: I have $600 for entertainment for the next couple months. Do I...

A. Buy a Wii ($250), an extra controller ($60), and three games ($120) for $430 and hold onto the cash for upcoming games or other entertainment uses (movies, videos, going out to eat, etc)

or

B. Buy a PS3 20GB ($500), and a game ($60) for $560 -- $130 more than a Wii with 3 games and an extra controller.

Every dollar invested in hardware is theoretically money not invested in software. I know this is a tough concept on a forum where 50% (!) of the visitors owned over 25 games on their primary conosle last generation, but there are caps on entertainment expenses by most consumers, and extra money invested in hardware is potential money not spent on software.

Further, seeing as the Wii is completely supply limited (I have YET to see one in a store in my area) and the PS3 isn't supply limited, comparing "overall US dollars spent" doesn't tell us much at all.

Ultimately, though, dollars spent down mean anything unless the attach rate of software follows the same trend. Even if Sony can beat out Nintendo by 10% in total dollars spent, but Nintendo is selling 2x as many systems Nintendo is, financially and market share, in the "driver's seat". Even if their attach rate is similar to Sony's Nintendo is in a strong position: Their software is cheaper to develop and their are making a profit on each unit sold whereas Sony isn't.

IMO the off season sales are interesting but are not grand revelations. What is more relevant IMO are software attach rates (and total software sales) and how this influences publisher support. And internally total losses/gains and price cut strategies and the available options/impact are right there as well.

Nice to see all 3 consoles selling relatively well in the slow month of January. Xbox 360 numbers are much stronger than I expected (no Lost Planet love in this thread?) although I disagree about the "no need for a price drop" stance. 300k for 6 months is 1.8M, which is definately not the pace MS wanted (they were aiming for 3-5M in the first 6 months of 2007, which is 500k-833k). Sales should be picking up substantially at this point and instead they are looking at a big slow down... I wonder why... I have been saying for a while 2007 is "do or die" time for MS. Are they going to make the investment to make themselves a serious contender and create a larger install base to reward publisher support and developer trust? Console install bases are long terms investments... Sony's numbers are not surprising due to the lack of software and most significantly the price. A lot of the price is BluRay related, so it is time for BluRay to start paying for itself. Some will disagree, but 2009 is too late. Console install bases are time sensative. Picking up steam down the road isn't an option. I think Sony is in a position to surprise with some price cuts and should have a good European launch. It really is about software for Sony and clearly demonstrating to consumers why they need to spend more on a PS3 over a Wii and 360.

Which leads to the uniqueness of this generation: Different strokes, different folks. The Wii is the different console which defies logic in so many ways; the PS3 *the* gaming brand, has the next gen movie format, and is pushing potential and testing new waters like online strategies; the 360 is the full next gen gaming on the cheap(er), killer online experiences, and a mix-and-match media strategy (HD DVD, downloadable TV shows, etc).

Quite a contrast compared to the PS2/GCN/Xbox gen where serious time was spent discussing the GCN handle

Anyone who's an insider care to make prediction on how this will change early Wii 3rd party support if it all. Or are devs still going to take a wait and see approach?

We are beginning to see some publisher movement, at least hints of it. e.g. EA is going to "attack" the Nintendo consoles and has 15 titles in development. "We have shifted and acquired resources and are attacking these successful platforms," commented CFO Warren Jenson. "In short, we're on it." On the other side of the fence EA noted their dissappointment with their sales on the PS3, noting the eBay effect.

Publishers have limited resources and will go where the money is. That is why I noted tie ratios and early install base footholds above--you need people buying software and you need the install base to cater to a broad demographic of gamers as well as game titles. It is 2007, the 2nd year of next gen, time to get movin' folks! Last gen is being phased out, place your bets now.

You're very welcome.

Thanks!

 

[thatdude90210]

Here's something to consider.

What if the PS3 numbers are from the launch momentum? Then the next few months could get ugly... I'm talking <150k ugly.