Final confirmed Jan NPD's

[rounin]

Sorry, but the time when you could accuse MS of rushing anything is long past. It's ridiculous to accuse MS of 'rushing' their console, when they produced a machine that is comparable with Sony's PS3 launched a full year later. And have captured publisher and developer support like they have.

If anything this shows extremely good planning, and perfect timing, and the PS3 is indeed 'late' as they will lose signifigant marketshare.

Now, you could argue that Nintendo has had perfect timing as well because of their amazing sales numbers, but not PS3, it's definately late and will suffer as a result.

Once again though, I thought you said had me on your ignore list ? I wasn't exactly responding to anything you said.

Is it comparable in terms of reliability? By the looks of things so far, I'd say not. Technologically speaking, how do you compare?

Please provide some data to support your extrapolation that the PS3 is going to lose significant marketshare. Are there any indication of how many Ps2 owners will not be getting the PS3? How do you gauge how the increased interest in PS2 as a result of the extended lifespan plays into the strength of the Playstation brand? What about the decrease in confidence in the Xbox brand due to the cutting short of the lifespan? Common sense again?

The numbers from MS that say 50% of Xbox360 owners were Xbox1 owners could suffice as a method of gauging how many new gamers they got if there is a way to prove them and trace how they got their numbers.

The amazing sales of Nintendo does not directly support their timing decision. Hopefully you can see many other factors that contribute to their amazing sales, otherwise theres really no point in your participation in this discussion or thread.

Like I previously said, theres too many factors to consider before one can safely say that Playstation is going to lose marketshare and that anyone is gaining anything.

EDIT: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22296 an interview like that hardly constitutes a convincing source for the 50% claim.

You're suffering from a major case of denial right now...

As usual you can't help but stick in an unfounded personal remark before the debate has ended. I tend to be a very methodical and objective person and I happen to not like to leap to conclusions based on blind common sense. The concerns and issues that I have raised are valid until they have been proven otherwise by links, facts, and figures.

 

[dobwal]

PS3's jan #s means very little. Until supply issues are resolved, true demand of the ps3 can not be ascertained. NPD number for the holidays + january are still below the 1 million that Sony claimed was shipped to the US. There has been no further infomation regarding additional shipments. 244K is more likely a result of Sony building up inventory for the PAL launch.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Ok, awesome. So if he thinks that Sony will essentially match 360's first year sales, then *why* has he been arguing over the last two pages over his statement that Sony needs to 'turn their ship around' made in posts #170, 172, 176, and 177?

Well, I can only speak for myself, but I think the idea is that that's not really good enough in the scheme of things.

That puts us heading in 2008 with 360 at ~20million, and PS3 at 10. The momentum at that point will be extremely hard to overcome, there will be extremely few developers who will choose to make PS3 exclusive (as we're already seeing) that means it will be much harder for Sony to differentiate itself, the burden will be strictly on 1st party titles, and MS is no slouch in this regard either.

 

[Inane_Dork]

How long till the 360 overtakes the PS2 on a month-to-month basis?
Same for PS3?

I didn't expect the PS2 to do as well as it did when the 360 was out, but to have it still going strong after the PS3 is out is doubly unexpected (for me, of course). Has any console been outsold by its predecessor for this long? The scary thing is that there's no particular sign of the situation changing.

 

[Todd33]

How long till the 360 overtakes the PS2 on a month-to-month basis?
Same for PS3?

I didn't expect the PS2 to do as well as it did when the 360 was out, but to have it still going strong after the PS3 is out is doubly unexpected (for me, of course). Has any console been outsold by its predecessor for this long? The scary thing is that there's no particular sign of the situation changing.

It's a $120 console and a $500 console. Does the 8800GTX outsell the 7950GT yet? Two markets, unlike the Xbox1 and the 360, the Xbox1 is sleeping with the fish.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Once again though, I thought you said had me on your ignore list ? I wasn't exactly responding to anything you said.

Is it comparable in terms of reliability? By the looks of things so far, I'd say not. Technologically speaking, how do you compare?

Please provide some data to support your extrapolation that the PS3 is going to lose significant marketshare. Are there any indication of how many Ps2 owners will not be getting the PS3? How do you gauge how the increased interest in PS2 as a result of the extended lifespan plays into the strength of the Playstation brand? What about the decrease in confidence in the Xbox brand due to the cutting short of the lifespan? Common sense again?

The numbers from MS that say 50% of Xbox360 owners were Xbox1 owners could suffice as a method of gauging how many new gamers they got if there is a way to prove them and trace how they got their numbers.

The amazing sales of Nintendo does not directly support their timing decision. Hopefully you can see many other factors that contribute to their amazing sales, otherwise theres really no point in your participation in this discussion or thread.

Like I previously said, theres too many factors to consider before one can safely say that Playstation is going to lose marketshare and that anyone is gaining anything.

As usual you can't help but stick in an unfounded personal remark before the debate has ended. I tend to be a very methodical and objective person and I happen to not like to leap to conclusions based on blind common sense. The concerns and issues that I have raised are valid until they have been proven otherwise by links, facts, and figures.

As I already told you, I cleard my ignore list months ago, read a little more carefully next time.

As for the marketshare issue, well if you can't see how the current situation isunforlding then you have essentially made my point.

For facts and figures, simply look at the current 360 sales VS XBOX 1, look at the developer support and attach rate for 360, you have all the figures you need. 360 will completely surpass the install base of the previous console, no doubt about that.

Put it this way, by the end of this year MS will already be close to surpassing the total XBOX LTD. The look at the success of Wii, it's virtually impossible for Sony to not lose marketshare. Anyone who can't see this really is in denial, sorry if that offends you.

 

[rounin]

http://www.vgcharts.org/aconscomps.php?name1=PS&name2=PS2&type=0&align=1

There you see the PS1 versus the PS2 in America. The numbers speak for themselves.

62 PS Oct 00 345,000 PS2 Oct 00 453,500
63 PS Nov 00 541,000 PS2 Nov 00 214,000
64 PS Dec 00 1,038,500 PS2 Dec 00 642,250
65 PS Jan 01 363,500 PS2 Jan 01 274,250
66 PS Feb 01 282,000 PS2 Feb 01 262,000
67 PS Mar 01 212,000 PS2 Mar 01 604,500

The PS was killing the PS2 for 4 months after launch.

EDIT: Scooby : Clearly you and I have not changed in the time since then, so why not add me back on your ignore list (I missed the first time you explained to me you cleared your list...you could find it to prove yourself but the point isn't big)? You continue to use clever language and abstract events to prove your points while I continue to quote figures and request more solid information before jumping to conclusions. You've added me once, so you might as well do it again.

 

[TheChefO]

The consoles war is fought essentially forever - the format war is right now. Your plan is a plan that hedges against risk of failure and scales back commitment. The plan they chose is an all-out blitz in support of the format. View it how you will, but if BD victory is a priority of theirs - and it seems to be - then the way they played it was the only way to play it.

LaaYosh's Titanic metaphor seems a fitting reference in this decision path. Regardless of how sales go (currently sitting at half their original target of 1m/mo) they will ride out the high price because even though they are tanking the playstation brand they are establishing BR units in homes.

While I agree if that is their primary goal (as it seems) then it is a good strategy. Question: What does Sony do if Toshiba offers HD-DVD drives to MS at a loss to be included in xb360? From what I recall Toshiba is losing $100/HD-DVD player. If Toshiba transfers this loss to just the drive itself and the cost difference is minimal to MS to replace their existing DVD-ROM, Toshiba would be looking at a 10m/yr HD-DVD market to sell to studios as well.

How likely this is I have no idea, but I imagine Toshiba has a vested interest in seeing HD-DVD not killed. MS obviously cares little either way but if the cost is insignificant enough I'm sure they would bite.

Chef, ok... I asked how many PS3's you thought Sony would sell in the US by the end of 07, and you gave me an obtuse worldwide estimate hinging on Europe. US. 250k/month? That's fine. So you don't believe then that they will enjoy a Fall-season boost tied to larger title releases?

I factored in an increase at the end of DOUBLE in November and DOUBLE that for December. I think that's reasonable

Those numbers are flat though and I do not expect them to be so.
I expect a pricedrop this year which will spark a sales increase:
300k/mo US
200k/mo EU
150k/mo Jp

6.5m + (3m first 6mo + (1m EU + 1.5m WW06))
12m WW by years end 2007

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Ok, awesome. So if he thinks that Sony will essentially match 360's first year sales, then *why* has he been arguing in defense over the last two pages of his statement that Sony needs to 'turn their ship around,' made in posts #170, 172, 176, and 177?

The thing is PS3 is not fighting against last years X360 or it's last years game library, they are fighting head to head with what they got right now and PS3 is doing worse than anybody imagined it to do. Matching X360 was never the goal, however it is likely that PS4 will enter the market at a later stage than X360 giving Sony time to expand after the "death" of X360, current great sales of PS2 are proof of that imo.

I agree with you on the Blu-ray part, I still think it was good choice to put it there, and I think Chefs' 300$ without BR and 600 with it example is flawed, it doesn't cost Sony 300 or even 200$ to put it in there, so it's not realistic to expect such a large gap in price because of it. Also manufacturing Blu-ray will get cheaper quickly so after a while it's no biggie. It's tough to make predictions...

 

[dobwal]

http://www.vgcharts.org/aconscomps.php?name1=PS&name2=PS2&type=0&align=1

There you see the PS1 versus the PS2 in America. The numbers speak for themselves.

62 PS Oct 00 345,000 PS2 Oct 00 453,500
63 PS Nov 00 541,000 PS2 Nov 00 214,000
64 PS Dec 00 1,038,500 PS2 Dec 00 642,250
65 PS Jan 01 363,500 PS2 Jan 01 274,250
66 PS Feb 01 282,000 PS2 Feb 01 262,000
67 PS Mar 01 212,000 PS2 Mar 01 604,500

The 2 months following launch ,the PS was killing the PS2

Actually for all of Sony's fiscal year 2001(?) the PS1 outsold the PS2 9.4 to 9.3 million.

 

[rounin]

Actually for all of Sony's fiscal year 2001(?) the PS1 outsold the PS2 9.4 to 9.3 million.

My mistake then. I have changed my post to reflect this.

 

[aselto]

Some interesting data:

Playstation Brand 44.09%
Nintendo Brand 30.45%
Xbox Brand 25.46%

U.S. Video Games Industry 1/07 Dollars
January 2006 January 2007 CHG*
Video Games $704mm $1.25B 78.0%
Video Games Hardware $237mm $505mm 113.0%
Console Hardware 158mm $412mm 161.0%
Portable Game Hardware $79mm $92mm 17.0%
Video Games Software $359mm $549mm 53.0%
Console Software $260mm $406mm 56.0%
Portable Game Software $98mm $143mm 46.0%
Video Game Accessories $108mm $198mm 84.0%


Platform Contribution - All Categories (HW, SW, & Accessories)
Dollars Vert % ARP Freq
Xbox 360 $284mm 22.50% $72.80
PlayStation 2 $237mm 18.80% $32.59
PlayStation 3 $205mm 16.20% $150.18
Wii $181mm 14.40% $78.42
Nintendo DS $108mm 8.70% $30.52
PlayStation Portable $107mm 8.50% $42.75
Game Boy Advance $50.8mm 4.00% $23.42
GameCube $40.3mm 3.20% $26.20
Xbox $33mm 2.60% $21.92

So Playstation brand is still the strongest, while Xbox 360 is the biggest platform right now basing on revenues.

Why is Blu-Ray included in PS3 so critised right now, while a year ago it was an absolute nessessity for a next-gen system? I think BRD extra capacity might be useful for gaming, DVD9 is only ~18 RAM refreshes and most last-gen games had much more than that. I'm not saying that 360 is crippled or anything.

 

[Carl B]

Well, I can only speak for myself, but I think the idea is that that's not really good enough in the scheme of things.

That puts us heading in 2008 with 360 at ~20million, and PS3 at 10. The momentum at that point will be extremely hard to overcome, there will be extremely few developers who will choose to make PS3 exclusive (as we're already seeing) that means it will be much harder for Sony to differentiate itself, the burden will be strictly on 1st party titles, and MS is no slouch in this regard either.

I want to make clear that none of my points are made from the standpoint of Sony being market leader after this gen; they are from a failure/success standpoint. I think that Sony can lose yet still have achieved its goals. I agree that 360 is on track to reach 'critical mass' before PS3 in the US. Europe who knows, and Japan they're carving a niche, although they will clearly be third.

XBox was a system that stormed into the minds of the general public when Halo 2 launched; it showed non-freak individuals older than 15 lining up to get a video game, made 'XBox' cool, and became a cultural reference point in the US when media needed to refer to gaming. Whatever trench warfare Sony is forced to fight this gen, and whatever place they ultimately come in, I do think that some first-party titles will come along at some point that will differentiate it from its closest competitor in some important ways. Now - will those titles be Halo-esque in their significance? Maybe, maybe not. But I'll be happy with my PS3 just as US XBox owners were happy with their 360's prior to said title.

I don't view PS3 as a failure if it fails to keep #1 - my views on its ultimate success will be formed from a composite of its achievements and shortcomings several years from now. What else can I say? These Jan sales fell short of their estimates, but I consider them good myself; paradox? It's simply that I view things through a prism defined by my own views rather than a prism defined for me by the analysts, media hacks, and corporate talking heads.

 

[Todd33]

For facts and figures, simply look at the current 360 sales VS XBOX 1, look at the developer support and attach rate for 360, you have all the figures you need. 360 will completely surpass the install base of the previous console, no doubt about that.

Put it this way, by the end of this year MS will already be close to surpassing the total XBOX LTD. The look at the success of Wii, it's virtually impossible for Sony to not lose marketshare. Anyone who can't see this really is in denial, sorry if that offends you.

I'm unsure how you can say the 360 is selling better than the Xbox1, they seem pretty close in all three regions. If their month to month sales are close for year one how can the 360 pass it in two years? It may be true, but I cannot find numbers to show it. It looks like the 360 is selling ~10% better than then Xbox1, but there are also more people in the world now

From this page: http://yourgamerparadise.wordpress.com/2007/01/19/sales-analysis-xbox-vs-x360/

Total- 5,075,000/5,024,000 Xbox/360 in NA for 14 months.

 

[TheChefO]

Ok, awesome. So if he thinks that Sony will essentially match 360's first year sales, then *why* has he been arguing in defense over the last two pages of his statement that Sony needs to 'turn their ship around,' made in posts #170, 172, 176, and 177?

Maybe I'm just arguing from some different place because I'm not obsessed with companies, their claims, their arrogance, and their executives... but if we all agree 360 did "well" its first year, and then we all agree that PS3 will probably do just as well, do I have a right to get aggravated at folk saying that Sony is headed towards a cliff?

Sony target = 1m/mo
reality = .5m/mo (est)

This isn't Nintendo we're talking about or Sega or MS. Sony has dominated the market over the past decade and is just now coming off a 100million unit selling ps2. Their sales targets reflect their status in the market. Besides, MANY here on this very board were questioning and slamming MS for their numbers last year and I myself was one of them last summer!

Expectation vs Reality.

 

[Carl B]

Besides, MANY here on this very board were questioning and slamming MS for their numbers last year and I myself was one of them last summer!

But I never was - so maybe you should pay attention to what I have to say on this matter.

Post #235 addresses my views on Sony's claims vs the market realities; essentially when you remove yourself from caring about the claims, you are left only with reality. Reality is where I think we should all choose to live given the option, and not a land where every executive claim is clung to as either some banner to defend or see fall.

 

[TheChefO]

I want to make clear that none of my points are made from the standpoint of Sony being market leader after this gen; they are from a failure/success standpoint. I think that Sony can lose yet still have achieved its goals. I agree that 360 is on track to reach 'critical mass' before PS3 in the US. Europe who knows, and Japan they're carving a niche, although they will clearly be third.

XBox was a system that stormed into the minds of the general public when Halo 2 launched; it showed non-freak individuals older than 15 lining up to get a video game, made 'XBox' cool, and became a cultural reference point in the US when media needed to refer to gaming. Whatever trench warfare Sony is forced to fight this gen, and whatever place they ultimately come in, I do think that some first-party titles will come along at some point that will differentiate it from its closest competitor in some important ways. Now - will those titles be Halo-esque in their significance? Maybe, maybe not. But I'll be happy with my PS3 just as US XBox owners were happy with their 360's prior to said title.

I don't view PS3 as a failure if it fails to keep #1 - my views on its ultimate success will be formed from a composite of its achievements and shortcomings several years from now. What else can I say? These Jan sales fell short of their estimates, but I consider them good myself; paradox? It's simply that I view things through a prism defined by my own views rather than a prism defined for me by the analysts, media hacks, and corporate talking heads.

A New poll is in order...

 

[TheChefO]

But I never was - so maybe you should pay attention to what I have to say on this matter.

Post #235 addresses my views on Sony's claims vs the market realities; essentially when you remove yourself from caring about the claims, you are left only with reality. Reality is where I think we should all choose to live given the option, and not a land where every executive claim is clung to as either some banner to defend or see fall.

Sony is still tracking at about half their original sales target.

You don't consider this shocking/disturbing/surprising/interesting?

 

[Carl B]

Sony is still tracking at about half their original sales target.

You don't consider this shocking/disturbing/surprising/interesting?

Shocking, disturbing, surprising - no, no, and no. Afterall, I was at 300k for Jan Chef; I'm 50k short. Why would I be shocked, disturbed, or surprised? Does it surprise you that my estimate had nothing to do with Sony or their claims? Maybe you should stop paying attention to what these execs have to say to begin with; they're not unbiased sources you know.

Do I find it interesting? Of course I do - all data is interesting.

 

[Todd33]

Sony is still tracking at about half their original sales target.

You don't consider this shocking/disturbing/surprising/interesting?

Shipped or sold? Includes Europe or not? Throwing out 1 million a month without details makes it hard for anyone to follow.

Didn't MS say 10 million head start by Nov and then only sell 6 million? shocking/disturbing/surprising/interesting?

Double standard?