Final confirmed Jan NPD's

[rounin]

Why? It's about gaining nextgen marketshare.

The problem is that you don't know how many of those people were already Xbox 1 gamers. In other words, you wouldn't have actually gained much if this was the case. Judging by the hardcore/enthusiast nature of the gamer crowd that MS has cultivated and the way in which Xbox was essentially dropped, I don't doubt this could be very probable).

At the same time, you don't know how many PS2 gamers have yet to switch over time, etc. Unlike the Xbox, the PS2 has enjoyed extended service that appeals to the crowd. FFXII, Rogue Galaxy, God of War 2...all are games that hit close to or after PS3 launch.

There are many more factors to consider I believe before you can start talking about how much they have gained on the competition.

 

[Todd33]

I'm sorry I thought that was common knowledge for Sony's target. Perhaps I'm off.

As far as I can tell (just googled around) it was 6 million shipped back when it was a world wide launch, before any BD supply issues (~March 06). After the Euro delay the forcast was changed to 3 million, again shipped. I'm not sure what they will be at world wide by the end of march, but I doubt it will be that far off.

I know the truth is less interesting or flashy, it sounds so much better to hint that Sony said last week that they would sell 6 million by March...

 

[Geo]

I'm sorry I thought that was common knowledge for Sony's target. Perhaps I'm off.

I don't follow this stuff as close as some, but the last quote I saw from a Sony rep was still hoping to hit that, yes. In the last month or so anyway.

 

[Carl B]

As far as I can tell (just googled around) it was 6 million shipped back when it was a world wide launch, before any BD supply issues (~March 06). After the Euro delay the forcast was changed to 3 million, again shipped. I'm not sure what they will be at world wide by the end of march, but I doubt it will be that far off.

I know the truth is less interesting or flashy, it sounds so much better to hint that Sony said last week that they would sell 6 million by March...

Well, for the record the 6 million by March-end was recently reiterated.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14958

Nevertheless, the PS3 is still the fastest PlayStation console to reach the two million units mark. Sony reiterated that it intends to achieve six million units shipped worldwide by the end of March. Part of this figure will undoubtedly include the first shipment(s) to Europe, which will finally receive the console in March.

Jan 16th, 2007

 

[scooby_dooby]

Its all perspective anyway. Just because one party needed to rush and get there early doesn't make the other two late. In this case, the plural would be used correctly instead.

Sorry, but the time when you could accuse MS of rushing anything is long past. It's ridiculous to accuse MS of 'rushing' their console, when they produced a machine that is comparable with Sony's PS3 launched a full year later. And have captured publisher and developer support like they have.

If anything this shows extremely good planning, and perfect timing, and the PS3 is indeed 'late' as they will lose signifigant marketshare.

Now, you could argue that Nintendo has had perfect timing as well because of their amazing sales numbers, but not PS3, it's definately late and will suffer as a result.

 

[RobertR1]

As far as I can tell (just googled around) it was 6 million shipped back when it was a world wide launch, before any BD supply issues (~March 06). After the Euro delay the forcast was changed to 3 million, again shipped. I'm not sure what they will be at world wide by the end of march, but I doubt it will be that far off.

I know the truth is less interesting or flashy, it sounds so much better to hint that Sony said last week that they would sell 6 million by March...

Most of the flash and bullshit comes straight from Sony so you don't have to look to far in this case.

 

[scooby_dooby]

The problem is that you don't know how many of those people were already Xbox 1 gamers.

Actually we do, 50% according to MS.

I don't think we should be throwing the word "gaining" out there quite so quick.

You're suffering from a major case of denial right now...

 

[Todd33]

Well, for the record the 6 million by March-end was recently reiterated.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14958



Jan 16th, 2007

Maybe the right hand should talk to the left. They admit they had BD manufacturing issues and delayed Europe and then someone comes out and says they will meet there goals, that is pretty dumb. They will probably have 3-4 million shipped by end of March, they should just say so.

Then again MS missed their 10 million mark by Nov 06, so it's all marketing BS.

 

[TheChefO]

Sure - well, personally I think it would have been a bad move. It would mean that all PS3 games would have to be on DVD and that the industry ecosystem behind BD wouldn't have the forced jumpstart via massive diode and media replication demands. In Feb of 07 people might read this and say: "so?" But I think in Feb 09 for instance, benefits of having done so will be quite manifest.

I think you're misinterpriting my words. If Sony produced PS3 EXACTLY the same as what hit the shelves late last year with the only difference in gameplan being all games produced on DVD9 for now. Leaving time to evaluate the market at the $500-600 pricepoint and guage demand accordingly.

If by summer, ps3 sales are significantly lower than planned, release the DVD core version without HDD for a pleasant $300.

If by summer, ps3 sales are acceptable, proceed as planned and open the DVD restriction to BR discs.

That's the difference between Greed + Arrogance vs Greed + Humble.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

When you say something like "Right?," I mean whose theories are you addressing? Sony's? Well then right. But let's put all the PR aside, and let me ask you this - how many PS3's do you think Sony will have sold in the US by the end of December 07? Now if you think it will be well below what 360 sold its first year, feel free to continue on your present course of reasoning. But if you don't, I'd appreciate if you took into consideration why that might be; perhaps because similarly to 360 in its first year, the game library is still to develop?

Concensus from Sony and many here on this Forum was first 6 million - no problem. I questioned their ability to do so, as $500-600 is not an insignificant price barrier.

The comparison to xb360 this time last year was unheard of. Not many here thought ps3 would be tracking similar to xb360. Expectation vs Reality.

Personally I thought ps3 would fall short of 6 million in 6 months. I did not foresee sales this bad though. My intitial expectation seemed to be met early this year only to be surprised by empty shelves by February.

How do I think ps3 will sell from this point forth?

To early to say as EU is a question mark and pricepoint is a question mark.

Assuming the market continues as is and EU buys in similar pattern to what they have historically in relation to US markets and sales are flat:

250k/mo US
150k/mo EU
100k/mo Japan

500k/mo x16 (nov = mo x2 (dec = mo x4)

8,000,000 + (1m EU launch + 1.5m WW 2006)

10.5m by end of 2007.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Again, it's fun to read some of the posts here; I wonder what it'll take to get some people to agree that Sony has made some pretty big mistakes.

Just to remind you: X360 leads with about 8-9 million units. Sony would have to sell at least 170-200K more consoles per month worldwide - just to catch up to MS until the end of 2010. And at the moment, MS is increasing it's lead.

It's a bit like deciding to remain on the Titanic because it can't sink...

 

[avaya]

There is no way anyone can spin the PS3 numbers with a straight face. They are absolutely terrible.

Just appalling.

Sony didn't take just one liberty with their platform, they took a SERIES of them while their PR fell of a cliff.

It's just a case of damage limitation for them now. PS3 may or may not deliver Blu-Ray's crushing defeat of the 2 stooges format of choice but for SCEI this is a crossroads.

SCEI has been mortgaed to help Group. They need to be able to survive this with some decent numbers (lol Japan). EU or may not be deliverance of this, but US could get very bloody towards the end of the year when Halo comes out.

Some said this day would never come, what are they to say now?

 

[Todd33]

The comparison to xb360 this time last year was unheard of. Not many here thought ps3 would be tracking similar to xb360. Expectation vs Reality.

First it's too expensive to sell, then it should sell more than the 360, which is it?

10.5m by end of 2007.

So it will sell better than the 360, be more expensive, push the BD as a standard and yet be a failure. BTW I agree with your number, but I don't agree with the high bar you set for Sony while lowering it for MS.

 

[LogisticX]

I figured the B3d forum would be a little more mature about this topic but I guess I was wrong. Well at least the Wii supporters don't have to get involved in this childish bickering.

PS3 is doing alright, I don't see reason for anyone to admit anything. The past 3+ months have been all doom and gloom toward Sony. MS is doing great regardless of anybodies parading. Stop with the bullshit what ifs.

 

[RobertR1]

Again, it's fun to read some of the posts here; I wonder what it'll take to get some people to agree that Sony has made some pretty big mistakes.

Just to remind you: X360 leads with about 8-9 million units. Sony would have to sell at least 170-200K more consoles per month worldwide - just to catch up to MS until the end of 2010. And at the moment, MS is increasing it's lead.

It's a bit like deciding to remain on the Titanic because it can't sink...

No need to bring up facts. Thread killer!

 

[Vic]

In and of itself, yes, it does what it supposed to do. However the price/experience for a gamer is questionable when compared to other offerings available. Add games selection and it becomes decidedly more questionable. Not that everyone will question it. Almost 2 million agree with you. The other 98+ million aren't convinced yet.



Agreed. All IMO of course.



More games will come. I question whether it will be a case of too little too late for ps3 though.As for my 2nd job -I would get another job, but I'm too busy playing xb360. Sucks for Sony.:smile:



Agreed - my prediction was way off. I assumed the lack of systems on the shelf ment they sold out. I also assumed that they had at least one more shipment since last year.



The key word being try.

I simply dont understand your insistance that PS3 is dying. You seem desperate to write off Sony and proclaim MS as winner of this generation.

The PS3 has been out for three months! There are still years to go in this 'war'. The PS3 actually launched with competition, at a higher price point than its competitors, and negative PR (mostly through viral marketing) yet is still outsold 360. Thats not to say the 360 hasnt sold well since its release because it has, but the figures certainly havent been outstanding, which is why MS has cut its sales targets at least twice in the past year.

PS3'S PAL launch will almost certainly be huge, and you can expect MS's lead to quickly be reduced. MS needs to introduce a price-cut to counter PS3 in Europe, as the Playstation brand is very strong here, and Gran Turismo is a much bigger franchise than Halo is.

The way I see it, MS only has a chance at winning the US market in the long-term. However, your blind sweeping-statements based on sales figures for one territory in January of all months, are absurd. Perhaps we should wait until at least the end of 2007 before we start talking about marketshare as if its something that remains static...

 

[Todd33]

Again, it's fun to read some of the posts here; I wonder what it'll take to get some people to agree that Sony has made some pretty big mistakes.

Just to remind you: X360 leads with about 8-9 million units. Sony would have to sell at least 170-200K more consoles per month worldwide - just to catch up to MS until the end of 2010. And at the moment, MS is increasing it's lead.

Mistakes were made in all camps.

Sony was late due to BD laser stuff, Cell, HDMI 1.3. Dev tools and PSN are immature. Bet the console future on BD, more of a gamble than mistake.
MS made a high failure hot system, which is loud, lacks digital video and everything is an add-on (and I hate the white).
Nintendo repackaged a GC with a gimmick control system and charged $250.

 

[Carl B]

I think you're misinterpriting my words. If Sony produced PS3 EXACTLY the same as what hit the shelves late last year with the only difference in gameplan being all games produced on DVD9 for now. Leaving time to evaluate the market at the $500-600 pricepoint and guage demand accordingly.

If by summer, ps3 sales are significantly lower than planned, release the DVD core version without HDD for a pleasant $300.

If by summer, ps3 sales are acceptable, proceed as planned and open the DVD restriction to BR discs.

That's the difference between Greed + Arrogance vs Greed + Humble.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

The consoles war is fought essentially forever - the format war is right now. Your plan is a plan that hedges against risk of failure and scales back commitment. The plan they chose is an all-out blitz in support of the format. View it how you will, but if BD victory is a priority of theirs - and it seems to be - then the way they played it was the only way to play it.

......

Chef, ok... I asked how many PS3's you thought Sony would sell in the US by the end of 07, and you gave me an obtuse worldwide estimate hinging on Europe. US. 250k/month? That's fine. So you don't believe then that they will enjoy a Fall-season boost tied to larger title releases?

 

[TheChefO]

First it's too expensive to sell, then it should sell more than the 360, which is it?

I believed it was too expensive. This theory seemed to hold true at the begining of this year. PS3 was demand limited at this time which means ... too expensive.

A month later and systems seemed to be sold out. This lead to my theory that the original remaining 300k sold out and likelyy even more via additional shipments.

So it will sell better than the 360, be more expensive, push the BD as a standard and yet be a failure. BTW I agree with your number, but I don't agree with the high bar you set for Sony while lowering it for MS.

Actually those numbers put it on par with xb360's first year. If this were Sony's original target, well nobody would be shocked However their target was 1million per month, now. I'm guessing they wanted to increase this output by the end of the year for Christmas sales.

 

[scooby_dooby]

So you don't believe then that they will enjoy a Fall-season boost tied to larger title releases?

You didn't read his post carefully enough, he est. 500k in Dec, and 1mil in Dec:
(nov = mo x2 (dec = mo x4)

 

[Carl B]

You didn't read his post carefully enough, he est. 500k in Dec, and 1mil in Dec:
(nov = mo x2 (dec = mo x4)

Ok, awesome. So if he thinks that Sony will essentially match 360's first year sales, then *why* has he been arguing in defense over the last two pages of his statement that Sony needs to 'turn their ship around,' made in posts #170, 172, 176, and 177?

Maybe I'm just arguing from some different place because I'm not obsessed with companies, their claims, their arrogance, and their executives... but if we all agree 360 did "well" its first year, and then we all agree that PS3 will probably do just as well, do I have a right to get aggravated at folk saying that Sony is headed towards a cliff?