kemosabe said:
What assumptions support the theory that 24 pipelines would be the ceiling for R520? Curious to hear the opinions of the more technically schooled.
Die area/yield.
Assuming that ATI will use TSMCs new 90nm line, they will want decent yields. As you go from 130nm to 90nm, you would in theory get twice the number of components into the same area. Now, there is quite a bit of area on a R480 that doesn't have to change when increasing parallellism (such as driving off-chip I/O, 2D-stuff, video stuff, et cetera) on the other hand these don't always scale very well with litographic shrinks anyway. Call this chip area constant between lithographic generations , for arguments sake. The reason we can make a fairly substantial rounding error for these, is that for a top of the line chip the bulk of the die area is in all probability devoted to the vertex and pixel shaders, and the associated circuitry to keep these fed.
So why won't these simply double?
Two reasons - the first is that you might want to add features and presumably increase precision. These changes cost gates. Enough that Dave Orton cited that as the reason why ATI didn't add such features at 130nm. Going to 90nm will presumably allow it, but will still claim significant die area leaving less for adding shader resources.
The other problem is power draw. TSMC utilises neither SOI or strained silicon, so they don't look too well positioned as far as battling leakage losses goes. So if they just doubled the amount of transistors, the power draw would increase dramatically. Not good, when you're already pushing the envelope in terms of power/cooling/noise/cost. The logical solution is to drop voltages, accept lower frequencies, and let increased parallellism bail you out in terms of performance. So ATI is almost sure to add pipes, since this is the best way they can ensure that they will get reasonable performance increases to help sell the product - necessary to justify high prices before content starts to demand the additional features. 24 pipes is a 50% increase - no factor of two, but still respectable, and they won't have to endure a memory bandwidth starvation that is much worse than current levels.
That's my take - Yield/cost/power draw/memory tech conspire to make 24 pipes a reasonable guess for a 90nm high-end part from ATI with some advances in feature set and precision.
32 isn't impossible, but would imply increased die area and cost. The risk involved in moving to a new lithographic process would be increased further. And memory bandwidth issues would decrease efficiency.
16 is less likely due to marketing reasons. nVidia already offer SM3 and higher precision and will have had time to tweak their designs for yield and low cost. ATI will have to offer a significant performance delta. Also, the new part has to compete successfully performance wise with the 850XT, since the new features won't be all that significant in terms of beign necessary for games for a long time yet. 16 pipes where the additional transistors are spent on features, and MHz gains are negligeable due to leakage, just won't look all that compelling. But the rumours about decreased die area makes it difficult to rule out 16 pipes completely.