upnorthsox
Veteran
As crazy I guess as jumping out of a perfectly good windows7 plane with a Windows8 parachute.
Do you think it would be a mistake for MS and/or Sony to launch in 2012?
- Thread starter kagemaru
- Start date
As crazy I guess as jumping out of a perfectly good windows7 plane with a Windows8 parachute.
Yeah ... I think it might be better to wait for a few more years ... then maybe android will start shipping on pcs ... then maybe we can think about coming out with a new OS ...
Good point.
- Windows 8 won't mean people with Windows 7 can no longer get new internets within 18 months, or that people with Windows 7 won't be able to get the new Office. People with Windows XP can still get the latest Office.
- I'm going to go out on a limb and make a crazy prediction that you will still be able to get 2012 internets and pr0n on Windows XP.
- "Hardcore" users will be able to run Win 8 on current hardware, and there will be idiot proof Windows 7 upgrades available for a fraction of the LOLLOR$ that PS3 launched for. I tried upgrading my Xbox to Xbox 360 btw but I must have done something wrong because all that happened was that I couldn't access Live on it any more.
- When Windows Vista changed to Windows 7, 50% of the market didn't switch to Linux. Almost certainly won't happen this time either. Ask Sony, Sega or Nintendo how that worked out for them last time. Okay, maybe don't ask Nintendo about last time, ask them about the N64 instead.
- When the Windows 8 cash cow comes out it will automatically become the new Windows 7 cash cow.
- Basically, you done a bad analogy, unlike my original plane analogy, which was great! You should feel bad, and so should TheChefO for saying "Good point."
Edit: I meant
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Wait a minute ... you have a console AND a pc and you game on BOTH? whaaaatt???
I only tell the PC gamers about the console though. It just gets too hard trying to explain that sometimes you prefer a game that looks worse but that doesn't crash or stutter!
Just a dig at 'ol Shifty is all my comment was ...
I suspect you're not alone in your gaming behavior pattern.
I very much doubt either of them worry terribly about being the first to launch.
Seriously?
Is that why there was a haphazard tech demo of "Move" with a laptop and a computer cart the day after MS showed Project Natal at E3?
Is that why Sony insisted "Spring 2006" for PS3 at E3 in 2005 when everyone knew they couldn't meet that time-frame?
Ok...Believe that if you want.
Granted, being absolutely first isn't a priority, but being ready to go within the launch window (3mo), is.
So if both MS and Sony launch fall 2013 or 2014, that would be within a 3 month window.
If you acknowledge launching first isn't a priority, then we all agree it's highly unlikely for either of them to launch next year, right?
So if both MS and Sony launch fall 2013 or 2014, that would be within a 3 month window.
If you acknowledge launching first isn't a priority, then we all agree it's highly unlikely for either of them to launch next year, right?
Sure, as long as they have an eye on their competitors launch window ... with certainty.
Bottom line, xb360 short term profits will not deter xb720. I suspect the same to be true for Sony.
One may be more able to launch sooner than the other, and that may be why certain members seem to have a disdain for the concept of an "early" nextgen launch (which could hardly be considered early at this point).
Imho if MS has something remotely competitive from a hardware basis, a new kinect, the matching software, the deals with content providers, the plan is laid down in regard to various interaction between phones/tablets though Windows 8, etc.
Then to me clearly they have an siginficant interest in launching first and only in US by fall 2012.
I feel like all the aforementioned conditions could be fulfilled by fall 2012 no matter what lithography is used, but that's me.
Then to me clearly they have an siginficant interest in launching first and only in US by fall 2012.
I feel like all the aforementioned conditions could be fulfilled by fall 2012 no matter what lithography is used, but that's me.
So given the likelihood that Sony won't launch until 2013, that makes one less reason why MS will launch next year.
They could launch on 40nm, but that would either be very large, expensive and hot ... or not a significant step forward.
Coming up short in hardware would be acceptable if they intend to truly push the forward compatible concept.
Following an ipad model where new product is released every year or every other year which is based on the same architecture and old games take advantage of new hardware.
Such a concept could work well to address the timing issue while also allowing the console platform to grow with the times.
Could be.
I don't know what Sony's plans are.
Pros and cons need to be weighed when considering a launch window.
If one is competing with an individual or company, ideally one would find the competitors weakness and exploit it to ensure victory.
Sony tried this tactic with ps2 vs xbox exploiting the higher BOM of the MS machine by dropping the price 6months after launch along with other cuts down the road which MS had to match and in the process inflicted a $4billion hole in MS' wallet.
MS launching in 2005 put Sony in a rushed state which resulted in a very high BOM for PS3 and consequently a high MSRP which played a role in their loss of marketshare along with being late.
What lessons could be applied from these events to the here and now?
Hope that your company develops a more efficient machine than your competitor?
Launching next year defies all logic from a business or production POV so I don't understand why you think it'll actually happen.
MS's rushing, encouraged by Xbox losing them money and MS needing to drop it ASAP, affected both of them. PS3's high BOM was more a case of using bleeding-edge tech that came up more expensvie than predicted when Sony were designing the system - 65 nm wasn't available as expected, and the blue diodes weren't available when expected. That's because system designs need to be reasonably nailed down a couple of years before release while gremlins don't care about corporate timings, which means you have to plan by expectations and cross your fingers. If MS is aiming categorically for a 28nm process for CPU and GPU, they could hope it's ready and able in time by 2012, or aim for 2013 and be absolutely sure. If they hope for 28nm for 2012 and it's not robust enough, they'll lose a shed-load of money again with emergency measures or lousy stock. What good is first-launch advantage if you only have 4 million consoles installed, especially if your rival has used the extra time to craft a better product and experience? If MS make the conscious choice to launch 2013, they can be sure of great yields and design a system accordingly, taking advantage of things like better optical tech that has rapid progress unlike lithography to create a better/cheaper Kinect 2 then they could introduce in 2012.
Agreed.
I've said as much.
Design for 28nm.
If the process is ready, (they should know by mid 2012 - E3) then they can go through with the launch as planned.
If 28nm isn't ready, wait.
As for the High BOM being due to BRD and 65nm not being ready ... agreed. Hence, Ms pushing for 2005 (and tripping on RRoD in the process).
How so?
PS2 launched the year after PS1 had its best year ever.
Production volume by q3 & q4/2012 is unknown, but 28nm IS in production now.
Spot on and I couldn't agree more.
How do we know this is the 360's peak year? How do you know that next year won't be the "best year ever"?
Your logic is based on assumptions, which makes it flawed right from the start.