Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

[Mariner]

There are human trials of a vaccine developed at Oxford University already underway. It uses a genetically engineered chimpanzee adenovirus. The technology has been used before in human trials with no apparent side effects (barring increased desire for bananas*), but I'm guessing in a normal situation, we wouldn't be having human trials at such an early stage.

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-04-23-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begins-human-trial-stage#

(*possibly not true)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sounds like the prelude to a truly monstrous outbreak of an accidental human-created disease...

I see they are vaccinating but not going on to infect with Covid19, leaving it to normal contagiousness in the community to infect them or not. If containment is successful, they shouldn't even be subjected t Covid19 to know if the vaccine works or not. Quite how they go on to determine it's effective and worth distributing, I don't know.

 

[BRiT]

Sounds like the prelude to a truly monstrous outbreak of an accidental human-created disease...

I already saw this episode on Rick and Morty.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Sounds like the prelude to a truly monstrous outbreak of an accidental human-created disease...

I see they are vaccinating but not going on to infect with Covid19, leaving it to normal contagiousness in the community to infect them or not. If containment is successful, they shouldn't even be subjected t Covid19 to know if the vaccine works or not. Quite how they go on to determine it's effective and worth distributing, I don't know.

Are you suggesting they should knowingly expose the trial participants to a deadly virus?

That might be a tad unethical. It would also undermine test results, because it would only prove it works against an unnatural exposure. They already know it works in theory and a lab so it wouldn't help them to do that.

The early stages are really just to see if the vaccine is harmful. If after several months the side effects are mundane enough they will test a larger group. And no they still won't deliberately expose them to a deadly virus. (They save that for the military.) Enough of the large group should become exposed over time to know the effectiveness of the vaccine.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Are you suggesting they should knowingly expose the trial participants to a deadly virus?

No, but it means they can't actually prove it.

That might be a tad unethical. It would also undermine test results, because it would only prove it works against an unnatural exposure.

If it works, it works. There's nothing about an unnatural exposure (breathe in these virions) that could make a vaccine effective where it'd fail against a natural infection.

The early stages are really just to see if the vaccine is harmful.

But this test is to see if its effective according to that report...

When will the results be available?

To assess whether the vaccine works to protect from COVID-19, the statisticians in our team will compare the number of infections in the control group with the number of infections in the vaccinated group. For this purpose, it is necessary for a small number of study participants to develop COVID-19. How quickly we reach the numbers required will depend on the levels of virus transmission in the community. If transmission remains high, we may get enough data in a couple of months to see if the vaccine works, but if transmission levels drop, this could take up to 6 months.​

The result of the experiment will be seen i how many of the vaccinated catch Covid19 versus the control group. But with 1000 test subjects, you'll need several percent of the population to get infected for them to have a chance of being infected, and we're trying to avoid that level of spread again. Realistically, unless containment collapses and the virus runs rife, the vast majority of these test subjects won't be infected and we'll never know whether the vaccine works or not.

Perhaps they've developed the perfect vaccine, and yet we'll never know. Which isn't terribly useful.

 

[BRiT]

They just need to conduct their trials in the US States GOP run that are reopening with no restrictions.

 

[AlphaWolf]

No, but it means they can't actually prove it.

If it works, it works. There's nothing about an unnatural exposure (breathe in these virions) that could make a vaccine effective where it'd fail against a natural infection.

But this test is to see if its effective according to that report...

When will the results be available?

To assess whether the vaccine works to protect from COVID-19, the statisticians in our team will compare the number of infections in the control group with the number of infections in the vaccinated group. For this purpose, it is necessary for a small number of study participants to develop COVID-19. How quickly we reach the numbers required will depend on the levels of virus transmission in the community. If transmission remains high, we may get enough data in a couple of months to see if the vaccine works, but if transmission levels drop, this could take up to 6 months.​

The result of the experiment will be seen i how many of the vaccinated catch Covid19 versus the control group. But with 1000 test subjects, you'll need several percent of the population to get infected for them to have a chance of being infected, and we're trying to avoid that level of spread again. Realistically, unless containment collapses and the virus runs rife, the vast majority of these test subjects won't be infected and we'll never know whether the vaccine works or not.

Perhaps they've developed the perfect vaccine, and yet we'll never know. Which isn't terribly useful.

I expect a fair number of those getting the test vaccine will be frontline workers so there should be significant exposure among that group.

If you can't get enough exposure among a group of 1000 to see if the vaccine works, you probably don't need a vaccine.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I expect a fair number of those getting the test vaccine will be frontline workers so there should be significant exposure among that group.

Apparently not. It wasn't a targeted group but open to volunteers; they certainly didn't specify at-risk workers and mentioned, "...the levels of virus transmission in the community."

Who can take part in the study?

Participants must: Be aged 18-55 years old, be in good health, and be based in one of the recruiting areas.​

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Data as of 5/3/2020 @ 11:45 AM:

Total Tests: 390,560 (Up +9,912) : 20,088 below the 30,000 Daily Tests that the Governor of Texas Abbott promised, Not Good
Cases Reported: 31,548 (Up +1,026) : -267 less cases today over yesterday, Finally a Decrease - Lower Tests probably the reason
In Hospitals: 1,540 (Down -185)
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 15,544 (Up +653)
Fatalities: 867 (Up +20)

Texas tests per 1M population are 14,006 (Up +355) which places Texas as the 8th worst State. Down one place from yesterday.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column to sort from worst to first

They're using roughly 27.885 million as the population of Texas.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Apparently not. It wasn't a targeted group but open to volunteers; they certainly didn't specify at-risk workers and mentioned, "...the levels of virus transmission in the community."

Who can take part in the study?

Participants must: Be aged 18-55 years old, be in good health, and be based in one of the recruiting areas.​

I doubt they are telling you everything about the makeup of the study, just like they won't tell the people if they get the vaccine or the placebo.

 

[BRiT]

Ohio's testing remains beyond pathetic for the entire last week -- they only did another 4.3K tests, with previous days at 3.3K, 3.6K, 5.5K, 4.9K, 6.5K, and 5.2K tests.

Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 19,914 (up from 19,335 ), Hospitalized: 3,769 (up from 3,712 ), and Deaths: 1,038 (up from 1,021 ).
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 820, 81
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 2,338 (up from 2,305 ).

Percentage increase: 2.99%, 1.54%, 1.67%
Raw increase: 579, 57, 17

Ohio has total tests of 149,346 (up from 145,021 ) and tests per 1M population of 12,829 (up from 12,457 ) taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [case numbers updated later]

They're using roughly 11.641482 million as the population of Ohio

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What are the %age positives like for Ohio?

 

[BRiT]

What are the %age positives like for Ohio?

Ohio key metrics here -- https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases
Ohio Mortality metrics here - https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/mortality
Ohio breakdowns on Hospitalizations -- https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/hospitalizations

On the one page they list Age Range of "<1-106".

The numbers for Ohio don't give a realistic look at what's really happening. They're not doing enough testing to know. They're only looking at the tip of the tip of the iceberg, not even everything that can be seen above water. They need to triple their total number of tests by performing 40K tests from here on out for the next week.

A very realistic take on the matter is It's not going to happen because the Ohio GOP Governor is incompetent from not wanting to upset GOP Individual Number One and Two by demanding needed supplies to actually test.

 

[Mariner]

Given that the Chinese don't give a fuck about the human rights of prisoners/dissidents/anybody perceived as an internal threat, I have to say that I'd be amazed if right now there weren't lots of prisoners 'volunteering' for vaccine trials which make sure they encounter plenty of opportunities to become infected. Probably not just among the Uighur in their erm, re-education camps, we've heard about.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Ohio key metrics here -- https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases
Ohio Mortality metrics here - https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/mortality
Ohio breakdowns on Hospitalizations -- https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/hospitalizations

I get 403 errors.

The numbers for Ohio don't give a realistic look at what's really happening.

Still, if infections are increasing among the population, the proportion of positive tests should be increasing among the tiny samplings taken.

 

[BRiT]

I get 403 errors.

Still, if infections are increasing among the population, the proportion of positive tests should be increasing among the tiny samplings taken.

Yeah, their website is spotty and it launches some sort of embedded app that is error prone if you do anything. It loads with Edge-ium browser most of the time.

They had another 579 cases from 4.3K tests, so that's what close to 13.5% of tests returning Positive? I think earlier numbers fluctuate from 10% to 14% throughout the Pandemic. The big exceptions being when they did real testing and had 80% to 90% positive tests from Prison Facilities.

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

May 3, 2020 - 4,133 confirmed cases - 111 deaths

4,133 confirmed cases up 234 over yesterday and one new death
those 234 new cases represent a 6.0% increase over the last day

2nd day after the "Stay at Home" was lifted and certain businesses being 25% open this is what happens:

234 new cases is a new high and shows that the curve is not flattening but expanding.
Also the 6.0% increase over the last day is the highest since 15 days ago.

Not Good.

Increases (by percent) over the last 38 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%,
10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%,
7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%, 4.0%,
6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%,
2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%,
5.3%, 4.9% and now 6.0%

Increases (by count) over the last 38 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100,
+90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108,
+105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109, +80,
+124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80,
+71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179,
+187, +181 and now +234

As of 11:00am May 3, 2020, Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 234 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 4,133, including 111 deaths. The additional death being reported today is of a woman in her 70’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas, and had been critically ill in an area hospital.

Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, about 79% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first responders and other essential functions.

Of cases requiring hospitalization, most have been either over 60 years of age or have had at least one known high-risk chronic health condition. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Of the 111 total deaths reported to date, about 40% have been associated with long-term care facilities.

 

[McHuj]

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
2nd day after the "Stay at Home" was lifted and certain businesses being 25% open this is what happens:

No this has nothing to do with the Stay at home being lifted. Cases testing positive now are the result of people who have gotten infected 7-14 days ago. Any impact of the stay at home being lifted won't be seen for a couple more weeks.

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

No this has nothing to do with the Stay at home being lifted. Cases testing positive now are the result of people who have gotten infected 7-14 days ago. Any impact of the stay at home being lifted won't be seen for a couple more weeks.

What is happening is there never was a flattening of the curve before the "Stay at home" was lifted. The numbers shown from Dallas County clearly show increases in new cases and that the curve is not flattening but expanding.

Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins had a "Stay at home" order in place until May 20th but our idiot Governor Abbott overrode that order. The results because of that idiot's decision will be fatal for many.

 

[zed]

No this has nothing to do with the Stay at home being lifted.

Well it does have a bit to do with it, I assume you have to leave your house to get tested