Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

April 29, 2020 - 3,352 confirmed cases - 99 deaths

3,352 confirmed cases up 112 over yesterday and five new deaths
those 112 new cases represent a 3.5% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) over the last 34 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%,
10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%,
7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%, 4.0%,
6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%,
2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3% and now 3.5%

Increases (by count) over the last 34 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100,
+90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108,
+105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109, +80,
+124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80,
+71, +75, +105, +91, +135 and now +112

  • As of 12:00 pm April 29, 2020, DCHHS is reporting 112 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 3,352, including 99 deaths. The additional 5 deaths being reported today include:
    • A man in his 50’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas, and had been hospitalized.
    • A man in his 60’s who was a resident of the City of Mesquite, and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
    • A man in his 60’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility of the City of Balch Springs, and had been critically ill in an area hospital. {Internal note: Balch Springs}
    • A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas, and had been hospitalized. {Internal note: Monticello West}
    • A man in his 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the city of Dallas, and had been hospitalized. {Internal note: Monticello West}
  • Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, about 79% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, public health, food and agriculture, public works, and other essential functions.
  • Of cases requiring hospitalization, most have been either over 60 years of age or have had at least one known high-risk chronic health condition. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19.
  • Of the 99 total deaths reported to date, about 40% have been associated with long-term care facilities.
Click to expand...
 
State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

75af1a2d-68d9-450a-9ce9-ccd60b8fbfe3.png


https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Data as of 4/29/2020 @ 12:00 PM:

Total Tests: 314,790 (Up +14,406)
Cases Reported: 27,054 (Up +883)
In Hospitals: 1,702 (Up +20)
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 12,507 (Up +721)
Fatalities: 732 (Up +42)

Texas tests per 1M population are 11,289 (Up +517) which places Texas as the 6th worst State. No change from yesterday.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column to sort from worst to first

They're using roughly 27.885 million as the population of Texas.
 
Texas to partially reopen Friday despite virus testing concerns
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/t...ay-despite-virus-testing-concerns/ar-BB13nCmA
Texas is going ahead with its planned partial-reopening on Friday despite mounting coronavirus cases and calls for more widespread testing. Data suggests the state is doing less than half of its ideal projection of testing 40,000 people a day and, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins said his area needs "about four times as much testing" as they currently have before returning to business.

"Texas — it fights each day to be either dead last or next to last on the amount of testing," Jenkins told CBS News' Omar Villafranca, "To open up, you need to see [the number of cases] go down for two weeks."

Jenkins also called for testing to be put in place for those returning to work, so that if an employee gets sick they can be quickly detected and isolated in order to keep others safe.

"We're not able to do that yet," he said.

The state has reported over 26,000 coronavirus cases and more than 700 deaths in its roughly 29 million residents. At the time of reporting, Dallas county had tested less than 1% of their 3.6 million residents, and over 3,000 had already tested positive for COVID-19.

Despite the numbers, businesses like restaurants and malls will be allowed to open on May 1 and operate at 25% capacity, while still being mandated to follow social distancing guidelines.

Dr. Eric Bing, an epidemiologist at Texas' Southern Methodist University, fears that forging ahead on the path to opening the economy without focusing on lowering the amount of cases could lead to more infection.

"We have no idea how many people are infected," Bing said.

Bing said widespread testing was important so that health experts could get some idea of the baseline rate of infection, and without the baseline, they were "kind of shooting in the dark."
Click to expand...

This is not going to end well. I fully expect an increase of cases, deaths and a lot more "in hospitals".

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

I for one will keep doing the "Stay at Home" and when out grocery shopping (which I limit myself to once every two weeks) I wear plastic food service gloves and a mask. My wife will continue working from home and I am retired. I do not want to be a Guinea Pig for the State of Texas.
 
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Very much on point:

The first places open for regular business should be government buildings and offices. Starting in DC.

If the White House isn't doing public tours then the rest of the country is not ready to open.

If your state's capital building is not open to the public then the rest of your state is not ready to open.

If you governor is not out shaking hands and kissing babies then it's to soon for the rest of us.

If your city's court house and mayor's office aren't open for regular business then your city is not ready.

If the governing body and lawmakers aren't ready to take those risks then what does that tell you?
​
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1255652943291985927
 
Not wanting to stray too close to boundaries between this forum and The Other Place, but it should be fairly self-evident why certain Governments of certain colours in certain countries would be trying to slow-play the death figures however they can.

IMO this has to be factored in to assessments of discrepancies of reporting methodologies as much as any genuine clinical differences.
 
2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

April 30, 2020 - 3,531 confirmed cases - 104 deaths

3,531 confirmed cases up 179 over yesterday and five new deaths
those 179 new cases represent a 5.3% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) over the last 35 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%,
10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%,
7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%, 4.0%,
6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%,
2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5% and now 5.3%

Increases (by count) over the last 35 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100,
+90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108,
+105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109, +80,
+124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80,
+71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112 and now +179

As of 11:00am April 30, 2020, Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 179 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 3,531, including 104 deaths. The additional 5 deaths being reported today include:

  • A man in his 20’s who was a resident of the City of Balch Springs, and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
  • A man in his 60’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas, and had been hospitalized.
  • A man in his 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas, and had underlying high risk conditions.
  • A woman in her 80’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas, and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
  • A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the city of Dallas, and had been hospitalized.
Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, about 79% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first responders and other essential functions.

Of cases requiring hospitalization, most have been either over 60 years of age or have had at least one known high-risk chronic health condition. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Of the 104 total deaths reported to date, about 40% have been associated with long-term care facilities.
Click to expand...

This is the last day for the "Stay at Home" directive for Texas. For Dallas County today it was the worst day for new infections as the 179 total is up 138% over the 75 from just five days ago.

Going forward I expect many more cases and deaths in the State of Texas.
 
UK's highest positive count of 6000 doesn't make sense until you realise testing is massively increased. Here's the most informative graph...

upload_2020-4-30_20-13-15.png
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Why exactly was the point of the Stay at Home directive then?
Click to expand...

It started as an attempt to flatten the curve and keep the infection under control, however the economic pressures far outweigh the desire to keep everyone safe. The next 3 weeks will separate the wheat from the chaff, or let the herd thin itself, where I suspect the people who know this is real will continue to take steps to remain safe.
 
Ignoring the human cost, it'll be a very informative insight into the disease and help understanding, I'm sure. It'll also provide a reference for policy makers for other epidemics including a possible Covid19 round 2. It's a useful experiment, but one I'm glad I'm not a part of.
 
Ohio's testing remains beyond pathetic for a State looking to reopen next week -- they only did another 4.9K tests, with previous days at 3.3K, 3.6K, and 5.5K tests.

Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 18,027 (up from 17,303), Hospitalized: 3,533 (up from 3,421 ), and Deaths: 975 (up from 937 ).
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 742, 77
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 2126 (up from 1984 two days ago).

Percentage increase: 4.18%, 3.27%, 4.06%
Raw increase: 724, 112, 38

Ohio has total tests of 133,148 (up from 128,206 ) and tests per 1M population of 11,437 (up from 11,012 ) taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [case numbers updated later]

They're using roughly 11.641482 million as the population of Ohio
 
3dilettante said:
You gave the annual influenza deaths for the United States in 2017. I was quoting the COVID-19 deaths in the US from mid-March to April 2020, which are presumed under-reporting.
Click to expand...
One thing to keep in mind with flu vs covid numbers are the flu numbers are estimates

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

the CDC numbers are estimates, the actual confirmed flu deaths are lower in the range of 5X -> 10X lower

so when a person goes
in year X, 2000 ppl dies of flu and in the last 4 months covid only killed 2500 ppl thus its only a little bit worse
make sure they first are comparing apples to apples, confirmed flu deaths vs confirmed covid deaths
so 2000/5 = 400 confimed flu (generous) vs 2500 confirmed covid

or 2000 suspect flu vs 12500 suspected covid
 
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State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

75af1a2d-68d9-450a-9ce9-ccd60b8fbfe3.png


https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Data as of 4/30/2020 @ 04:15 PM:

Total Tests: 330,300 (Up +15,510) : 14,490 below the 30,000 Daily Tests that the Governor of Texas Abbott promised to open up the State which happens tomorrow
Cases Reported: 28,087 (Up +1,033) : +150 more cases today over yesterday - Not Flattening, Not Good
In Hospitals: 1,686 (Down -16)
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 12,507 (Up +846)
Fatalities: 782 (Up +50)

Texas tests per 1M population are 11,845 (Up +556) which places Texas as the 6th worst State. No change from yesterday.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column to sort from worst to first

They're using roughly 27.885 million as the population of Texas.
 
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https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/05/read-ohio-gov-mike-dewines-new-stay-at-home-order.html

DeWine’s new order, signed by Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton, opens up parts of the state over the course of May, with the first being nonessential medical procedures and surgeries at hospitals starting Friday. The new order expires May 29.

Other restrictions lifted in DeWine’s new order are construction, manufacturing and distribution centers being allowed to reopen May 4. On May 12, nonessential retail stores can reopen.

DeWine said he would continue to evaluate the necessity of the stay-at-home order on an ongoing basis to prevent a second wave of coronavirus infections​
 
I think this gives a perfect example of where we are with the science of this virus at present. News report from Wednesday quoting the new Swiss government advice that grandparents are allowed to hug their grandchildren because young children can't pass on the disease:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52470838

And here's a story the following day about a report from German virologists which notes that children may be just as infectious as adults!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-scientists-caution-against-reopening-schools

Absolutely contradictory findings from studies in neighbouring countries just 24 hours apart!
 
And this is a strange one if true:

French coronavirus strain may be local and may not have come from China

The Covid-19 virus which has been ravaging France may not have originated in China, according to a study published by virologists at the Pasteur Institute in Paris. The French strain may have been circulating locally and unrecognised before the global outbreak accelerated.

.....

Genetic analysis of the samples revealed that the dominant types of viral strains in France belonged to a “clade” or group with a common ancestor that did not come from either China or Italy.

.....

However, “current sampling clearly prevents reliable inference for the timing of introduction in France,” making it impossible to go one step further and conclude that the virus existed in France even before it was discovered in China.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/france/2020042...hQ-XiQN6GaRSkV4huCWBvftjdO8YeInH-bHk&ref=fb_i
 
A gajillion stats

upload_2020-5-1_19-29-13.png

These numbers preliminarily suggest that, unlike previous beliefs, Covid19 is discriminatory towards the less well off. Now an investigation is needed to know why that is, from lots of possible factors.
 
Ohio's testing remains beyond pathetic for a State looking to reopen next week, even if it is a phased in reopening, but at least the general Shelter In Place order extends until May 29th -- they only did another 6.5K tests, with previous days at 3.3K, 3.6K, 5.5K, and 4.9K tests.

Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 18,743 (up from 18,027), Hospitalized: 3,634 (up from 3,533 ), and Deaths: 1002 (up from 975 ).
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 781, 80
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 2217 (up from 2126).

Percentage increase: 3.97%, 2.86%, 2.77%
Raw increase: 716, 101, 27

Ohio has total tests of 139,725 (up from 133,148 ) and tests per 1M population of 12,002 (up from 11,437 ) taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [case numbers updated later]

They're using roughly 11.641482 million as the population of Ohio
 
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