Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by RDGoodla, Feb 4, 2020.

  1. BRiT

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    Unfortunately they have not reported on how severe the cases are from the prison systems. It's probably too early considering the testing of the prison facilities only happened within the last 5 days (started on 2020-04-23).

    They even have cases at the Juvi facilities.

    Some tidbits from quick search --

    The GOP senator is “frustrated” the federal Bureau of Prisons hasn’t done more to stop the spread of the virus in the Elkton facility in eastern Ohio, where seven inmates have died. The Army Corps of Engineers may need to reconsider a decision not to set up a field hospital for the prison.

    Juvenile justice advocates called on Gov. Mike DeWine and youth prison officials to release teenagers being held in custody before the virus made its way into the detention centers and youth facilities around the state. Outbreaks of the virus in the state’s adult jails and prisons have left thousands of inmates infected and caused at least 19 deaths, according to the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/04/23/843310088/covid-19-is-sweeping-through-ohio-prisons

    The highest number of COVID-19 cases tied to one location in the U.S. is a state prison in central Ohio. Eighty percent of inmates there have tested positive for the virus. Paige Pfleger of member station WOSU reports.

    PFLEGER: Mass testing at Marion revealed more than 2,000 of the 2,500 prisoners contracted COVID-19. Andre Stores has been incarcerated since 1995 for complicity to aggravated robbery and other charges. He says it's been days since he and other inmates were tested. And they still don't know their results. That gives the virus more time to spread.

    PFLEGER: One of many reasons the coronavirus has been so hard to contain in Ohio's prisons is because they are significantly overcrowded, sitting now at about 130% capacity.

     
  2. BRiT

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    Ohio's testing remains beyond pathetic -- they only did another 3.3K tests the last day and 3.6K tests the day before.

    Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 16769 (up from 16325 ), Hospitalized: 3340 (up from 3232 ), and Deaths: 799 (up from 753 ).
    CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 641 (up from 626 ), 42 (up from 41)
    Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 1984 (up from 1938 ).

    Percentage increase: 2.72%, 3.34%, 6.11%
    Raw increase: 444, 108, 46

    Ohio has total tests of 122,706 (up from 119,391 ) and tests per 1M population of 10,540 (up from 10,255 ) taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [case numbers updated later]

    They're using roughly 11.641482 million as the population of Ohio.
     
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  3. Nesh

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    Aaaaaand.....this has been removed......:-|
     
  4. BRiT

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    VP Pence currently touring the Mayo Clinic--and seems to be the only one not wearing a mask

     
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  5. 3dilettante

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    COVID19 has cause more than a full flu season's excess deaths in a fraction of the time, and has done so despite so much being shut down.
    Nobody's looking forward to the fall season when there's a real chance of the two overlapping.

    There's 1-2 weeks before the full effects of an infectious event start to be seen. Positive tests start to rise, but the hospitalizations and deaths that can be associated with that rise are offset by the time it takes for many of the victims to succumb.

    This is in the context of antibody tests projecting 10-50x as many people already infected with many resolved asymptomatically, thus asserting that COVID19 is significantly less lethal.
    These traced outbreaks allow for more thorough testing and tracking of outcomes, but far too many have symptoms or die to have a matching number of asymptomatic people.


    Starvation and malnourishment in the US if they occur are not due to limitations in food supply or logistics. I don't know if these numbers account for abuse, which can be a source, or are related to poverty or location.
    The US is vastly more than capable of providing the nutritional and caloric needs for its population many times over, but it also has policies and priorities that ensure many of its poorer do not have access to that largess.
    It is a governmental or societal choice, not a lack of means. Farms are letting untold tons of produce rot, and food preparation capacity of state institutions like schools or restaurants are idled.


    Meat and poultry in the US seems to have had roughly half a million employed.
    Their overall flu mortality has not been found to be different than the average, or at least it's not a trend found so far.
    From the following: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/n...y-force-choice-worker-health-food/2995232001/, there are claims of 2200 sick and 17 dead across a swath of plants.
    The Sioux Falls plant outbreak is associated with several fatalities, but it's not stated they were in the plant.
    Outbreaks on ships and on land tend to find 40-60% are asymptomatic and test positive, which doesn't mesh with the study claims.



    The point is that they are statistically significant sample sizes, and so it becomes increasingly improbable that they are outliers in the amount of infection and outcomes versus a claim that in any sample 10-50x would test positive without being symptomatic.


    The news services reported that the US executive recommended injecting bleach, and broadly reported unfounded assertions of the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine. The prospect of a miracle cure would undermine lockdown more so than a fear of attackers that people would try to hunker down in place to defend themselves against.
    The spectacle of tens of thousands of murder victims would not be something the media would pass up.

    So in a year the flu killed less than community-transmitted COVID-19 did in 2 months, the virus takes weeks to resolve in either recovery or death, and is either somewhat more contagious or 50x more, depending on the study.
     
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  6. Davros

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    That's because he's protected by jesus and no doubt thinks this is end times
     
  7. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    wow....a 40 y.o. woman from a nearby village died from that a few years ago. That's why it's so important to listen to professionals. When this all started and was getting serious this 40 seconds video of a nurse in Spain crying after 10 hours of work became viral, asking people to stay home. It stirred the people's conscience.

     
    #1807 Cyan, Apr 28, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2020
  8. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    politicians, what a joke. More stupid and they aren't born
     
  9. Malo

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    So it looks like the US hit over 1m confirmed cases today.
     
  10. Nesh

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    Interview to the Virologist Giulio Tarro: "The death rate of COVID 19 is less than 1% as confirmed by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases"

    https://www.cybermednews.eu/index.p...-institute-of-allergy-and-infectious-diseases

    You stated that you believe the real number of people infected in Italy at least 4 or five times higher than that declared by the government

    "I specify that mine is an estimate that is based on the interpolation of the data referring to those infected in respiratory viral epidemics that have occurred in Italy in recent decades. From this it can be deduced that the lethality rate of COVID 19 is considerably lower than 1%: a This finding was also incorporated into a study by colleague Anthony Fauci of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, based on a report focusing on 1099 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients from 552 Chinese hospitals.

    This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVD-19 could ultimately be similar to that of severe seasonal flu, which has a lethality rate of around 0.1%, or pandemic influenza such as that of 1957 or of 1968, rather than those of SARS or MERS, characterized respectively by a lethality of 10% and 36% and which, incredible to say, did not produce any alarmist campaign in our country. "



    And the current clogging of the intensive care units, especially in Lombardia, which show us every day on TV how do you explain it?

    "In the meantime, I remember that according to the World Health Organization, our country has halved the number of beds for acute cases and intensive care, from 575 per 100,000 inhabitants to 275 today. A scandalous cut of 51%, operated progressively from 1997 to 2015, which brings us to the bottom of the European rankings. Among other things, it should be said that, despite the images of what was happening in China were there for all to see, it would be said that - unlike other countries such as France - very little has been done in Italy to prepare for the epidemic, plus it should be noted that, following the emphasis of the threat posed by COVID 19, patients who could have been treated in other facilities were brought to the intensive care units As regards, then, the peak of deaths recorded in Lombardia it is to be noted that this region is in first place for the making of tampons; this, combined with the casual praxis to present, even in institutional settings, as "coronavirus deaths" patients who, on the other hand, could have "coronavirus deaths" (ie suffering from previous pathologies that caused death) could explain the "mortality peak for COVID19" of Lombardia. For this reason, it would be appropriate before identifying the primary cause of death in COVID19, carrying out the necessary pathological investigations and, above all, defining a standard to be applied throughout the national territory. A question that - in my opinion - still does not have the space it deserves. "


    Seems to be a translation from Italian, which my explain the weird grammar.
    In general there is a trend here. The various experts that believe that the virus is less severe, seem to believe that the high mortality rates are due to these factors:
    1) Not a proper standard has been defined of what should be counted in a Covid-19 death (deaths not caused by Covid-19 are included in the numbers.)
    2) Underestimation of the spread (larger spread smaller mortality rate)
    3) A weakened/underfunded health care system (easier to surpass capacity and unable to treat patients effectively of any kind)
    4) Improper management of the health care system (he also mentioned that patients were not being treated in their proper facilities in the case of Lombardia) -contaminates other patients or patients cannot be treated in general, causing unnecessary deaths and inflates Covid-19 numbers since deaths with Covid-19 are also included in.
    All these are factors that bring up casualty numbers via statistical bias and bad management of the medical resources
     
    #1810 Nesh, Apr 28, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2020
  11. ToTTenTranz

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    How much more and where?

    In Portugal I think we probably won't pass 1500 deaths, 2000 tops. We're at 950 deaths total right now, and we've been getting a daily infected increase ratio between 0.7 and 1.5%.
    We're also counting people who died from coronavirus plus people who died with coronavirus (which IMHO is absurd because a patient who dies from injuries of a car crash but happens to test positive when he gets to the hospital shouldn't count as a victim of the virus).
    In 2018 we lost 3000 people to the flu.

    There are more cases like Portugal in Europe, and others that go even further.
    Switzerland for example didn't do any lockdowns, only light advices to the population (wash your hands, avoid crowds, etc.).
    - They didn't shut down anything, no one lost their jobs, schools and daycares still working as usual.
    - They lost 1700 people to the virus so far. They lose around 900 people to the flu every year (though again: Europe just had 2 consecutive years with a very mild flu that killed very few people, so the amount of weakened people was greater than usual)
    - Their curve has flattened
    - No ICU ever became overcrowded -> also, they never put the state of emergency into play so sick people didn't all go to central hospitals.



    Again: you don't know how many people were actually exposed to the virus. All you have is a death count that started to be officially related to the virus in March, which is when they started to make large scale virological tests. In Portugal we basically got an increase of "confirmed infected" as we ramped up the amount of daily tests.
    And to repeat myself: northern Italy was reporting higher than usual pneumonia related deaths back in January.

    Another series of facts:
    - back in mid March (when we started our lockdown) our government health ministry was saying the peak of infections would probably occur in May.
    - Then in early April they said the peak would probably happen in mid to late April.
    - Last week they said the peak already happened somewhere in the second half of March.



    I don't know exactly where the 10-50x number is coming from. The serological tests in a German city?
    Why do traced outbreaks that use a very flawed test allow for more thorough testing, if the virological test itself is flawed?

    Also, you keep mentioning cruise ships as good data for making a statistical study over how many people get killed by the virus. Do you know the average age of the people in there?
    The median age of a cruise ship passenger is the 60-69 years old bracket.


    So from your own data:
    - universe of 500 000
    - 2200 got infected with symptoms
    - ? got infected but no symptoms
    - 17 died

    This means the death rate of the virus is 17/2200 = 0.77%, already a far cry from the >3% numbers being shown by most western countries. And we're not counting with the asymptomatic ones here, because if there are 2200 you can bet there's a whole bunch of people with no symptoms.
    So now if we assume the awfully flawed argument that only 50-60% are asymptomatic (because they're based on virological tests that return a lot of false negatives), then in reality we're looking at a death rate of less than 0.38%.
    And now we'd need to know if they're counting the deaths from coronavirus or the deaths with coronavirus. And then we'd need to know the age bracket of the people who died.

    Regardless, let's be generous and assume a 0.38% average death rate from infection. Is it terrible? Yes. It's about twice as deadlier than the common flu, or around the same as the swine flu I think.
    Should they stop the meat plants, looking at these numbers?


    The chain of reasons why people starve doesn't really matter, only that they starve and what initiates the chain is skyrocketing unemployment numbers and a massive market crash.
    During the great depression many people starved, while at the same time food production was destroyed to keep the prices from falling.
    The fact is you're getting the fastest ever rise in unemployment, in a country where many (most?) people don't have savings and have enormous debts. Money will be missing for basic needs for many families, and food is obviously one of them.



    Virological tests return a huge amount of false negatives. You can't say 40-60% are asymptomatic and test positive and use that number as basis for claiming only up to 60% are asymptomatic so that doesn't mesh with studies using serological tests, because you don't know how many tested negative, were asymptomatic but were infected.
    You'll need serological tests to get asymptomatic numbers. There's just no way around this.




    I have very reliable second-hand info (straight out the mouth of doctors on the frontlines) that the chloroquine treatments made for malaria were effective on critical patients. They adopted it here unofficially out of recommendations from doctors in northern Italy. I'm talking about doctors observing the life prospects of critical patients significantly increasing after they adopted the medication. I have zero motives to lie about this, nor do I believe the doctor (my mother) who told me this would have any reason to lie either. It's also information I got weeks before Trump ever mentioned it.
    Half the US seems to be declaring war on chloroquine because Trump mentioned it during some briefing, which I find it to be even more stupid than Trump mentioning it (why the hell would he mention drugs by name in a public statement?).



    That's like me saying the sun never comes up until I open the curtains. You don't know the virus has existed in the US for only 2 months.
    Huwan has had it (at least) since December, the US only started large-scale tests in March.
     
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  12. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
    https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

    April 28, 2020 - 3,240 confirmed cases - 94 deaths

    3,240 confirmed cases up 135 over yesterday and ten new deaths
    those 135 new cases represent a 4.3% increase over the last day

    Increases (by percent) over the last 33 days:
    21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%,
    10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%,
    7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%, 4.0%,
    6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%,
    2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0% and now 4.3%

    Increases (by count) over the last 33 days:
    +64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100,
    +90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108,
    +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109, +80,
    +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80,
    +71, +75, +105, +91 and now +135

     
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  13. 3dilettante

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    You gave the annual influenza deaths for the United States in 2017. I was quoting the COVID-19 deaths in the US from mid-March to April 2020, which are presumed under-reporting.


    There were multiple measures at the federal and local levels that closed down large gatherings and non-essential businesses.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Switzerland
    Did you mean Sweden? Their death rate per capita is among the highest, and they have instituted milder restrictions. There seems to be a more distanced population relative to others that might contribute to the slowed spread, but they are still considering further measures.

    So 1700 in how many weeks versus 12 months of influenza?

    The serological antibody test studies coming out California and/or New York. The ones with the large error bars and glaring mathematical errors.

    The median age on the USS Theodore Roosevelt isn't that high, and the highest they had for asymptomatic personnel was 60%, and only days into the outbreak.


    There's no claim that all the health workers across the entirety of the meat and poultry industry were equally exposed. If the 50x claims were credible, that actually should have been closer to what was experienced. Instead there are confirmed clusters of sickened people that form chains of infection, and they aren't cataloging entire plants being found to be infected with only a handful being symptomatic.

    The recovery period for COVID-19 is significantly longer, which is partly why there are so many recorded active cases that have neither resolved to death or recovery. Swamped medical services can also lose tracking of cases.
    There's a general expectation that once recoveries start to trickle in weeks after the peak, it should adjust downward, assuming the hospital systems don't overload.
    In the US, the seasonal flu's death rate is described as being ~0.1%, or nearly 1/8 the number you've given. It would have taken over the course of a year or mostly in a 6-month active season, with the flu getting no mitigation measures or restrictions.

    The 50-60% figures come from outbreaks where we're more sure that multiple testing runs were made, in part because of the attention or because of the nature of the facilities/ships.
    The studies being used to bolster the 50x asymptomatic case have error bars ~100% of what they reported.

    4x

    They're shutting many of them down at least partially for cleanup and allegedly to institute distancing measures, although such methods are not considered plausible at normal line speeds.

    There is no lack of food production. American agriculture is highly mechanized and despite being more productive than it's ever been, its largest crops need the fewest people. It's various forms of fresh produce that are the first to be lost, but there is no caloric shortfall and years in reserve.

    The US spends hundreds of millions of dollars a year to pay farmers (well, agribusiness) to not grow food, so they don't starve.



    The current serological studies have worse error rates.

    And reliable studies where professionals tried to get rigorous scientific data could not find a consistent benefit, and significant risk on the order of the virus itself for cardiac death or other forms of damage.
    The Trump administration is distancing itself from it, after the FDA and VA and a swath of other studies failed to find improvement or stopped because people began to die in excess of the infection.


    I was just tracking the part where the death curve became clearly exponential. If the virus spent some period before not causing thousands to die, it decided to flip the switch at some point.
     
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  14. AlphaWolf

    AlphaWolf Specious Misanthrope
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    The R factor makes this unlike the flu, the duration of hospitalization makes this unlike the flu. Even if the mortality rate were similar it cannot be treated like the flu.
     
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  15. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    primary sector. It always amaze me like some people seem to think that things just appear magically in the supermarket. It this thing has something good is that people are starting to value jobs that were considered not the best ones, yet they are the most essential.
     
  16. zed

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    I assume portugal is like Spain, where they only count those that died in hospitals of covid in the numbers, i.e. they dont count those that died outside the hospitals (home, resthome).
    Here on TV in catalonia they have started also reporting the total numbers of confirmed deaths of covid, i.e. counting those that died outside of hospitals (primary in rest homes)
    eg last night catalonia (population about portugals size) official death count on the news ~5400, death count (including rest homes ~9900, will break 10,000 today)
    Though personally I think a more accurate idea is looking at the numbers of deaths compared to the usual number here heres the latest numbers for western europe, seems to be less harmful the further east the country is
    [​IMG]
    Though your general premise about covid not being so harmful & more prevelant than what a lot of ppl think, I agree with, for reasons I have written about here before
     
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  17. London-boy

    London-boy Shifty's daddy
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    I don’t understand the flawed analogy with the influenza virus. Yes, many people die of flu every year. But it’s not like coronavirus somehow changed places with the flu. Now we have all the influenza deaths, plus all these tragic COVID deaths.
    I don’t understand how people can still say “it’s just a flu”. It is not, and why would we want even more deaths than we already have with the normal flu?
     
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  18. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    it seems like the social shield and lockdown measures are starting to pay off in the UK, they have seen the lowest daily rise in covid death toll. On a different note, a british study has found out that the virus infects those it can not those it wants to, because of a hereditary factor. They compared identical and non identical twins for the study, infected with the coronavirus.

    https://www.lavozdeasturias.es/noti...ecta-quiere-puede/00031588144692196146660.htm
     
    #1818 Cyan, Apr 29, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2020
  19. szymku

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    There's also some relation between tuberculosis vaccination (BCG) and total number of cases in each country. Apparently tuberculosis vaccine gives additional immunity against all lungs diseases. Countries that performed obligatory vaccination (Portugal, Japan, South Korea, Czech, Slovakia, Poland, former East Germany) have signinificantly lower infection rate. It seems reasonable, especially if you compare Portugal and Spain with similiar lifestyle and life conditions.
     
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  20. Shifty Geezer

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    The UK had the BCG vaccine for everyone in schools from 1953 for ages 10-14 up until 2005. That means everyone from age 80 down to 30 in the UK has had the BCG vaccine.
     
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