Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Indeed, and despite the ban on UK tourists, France is now seeing higher levels of infections, maybe the UK need to return the favour and ban them too.

Beeb said:
France has reported Europe's highest ever number of new daily Covid cases as countries across the continent struggle to contain the Omicron variant.

But France, with its 179,807 cases on Tuesday, was not alone in breaking records, as Italy, Greece, Portugal and England all reported record highs too.
Click to expand...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59810713
 
Freemantle said:
Indeed, and despite the ban on UK tourists, France is now seeing higher levels of infections
Click to expand...
France didn't blockade UK early enough. La Perfide Albion invaded us once more.

maybe the UK need to return the favour and ban them too.
Click to expand...
You already banned French fishing boats. Anyway most French people don't want to go to UK, we want to be able to eat chicken without having to sell a kidney.

And yes I'm trolling.
 
Omicron laughs at closed borders, it would seem. Community transmission reported to have been found in New Zealand as well so the cat might well be out of the bag there as well now. Australia are taking the 'Nothing to see here' approach, right out of the UK playbook. I suspect the involvement of the Dirty Digger, telling the various politicians what to do. Either that or they are just coincidentally as stupid as each other.

Hospitalisations are now ramping up in the UK, though there is at least a big change in the ratio per case. Possibly partially due to Omicron and the outcomes from this particular variant but also due to the vaccination programme.

Whether or not the change in ratio will be enough to save the health service is yet to be seen. Numbers of cases now beginning to rise in the older population so we'll know soon enough whether or not it is all going to fall over. The peak of admissions will probably be later in January. Unless the booster programme does enough to reduce the risks to a manageable level. Fingers-crossed!
 
Laurent06 said:
You already banned French fishing boats. Anyway most French people don't want to go to UK, we want to be able to eat chicken without having to sell a kidney.

And yes I'm trolling.
Click to expand...

I know, we have a house in France, I'm always surprised how more expensive meat is in France.

But I digress, we can all agree closing borders doesn't work that is for sure.
 
Mariner said:
Hospitalisations are now ramping up in the UK...
Click to expand...
Is that admissions due to C19 causing problems, or cases in hospital where C19 is incidental? I haven't seen clarification but have seen people argue the latter as per South Africa.

Just found this from the CEO of NHS Providers, whatever that is, suggesting a large proportion are incidental:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475540067187834886

The better number to watch is admissions due to C19.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
The better number to watch is admissions due to C19.
Click to expand...

I think, in general, the estimate is that around a quarter of admissions with Covid tend to be 'incidental'. Difficult to parse the numbers exactly due to the way in which the data is presented as this article discusses:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...he-true-scale-of-uk-covid-hospital-admissions

Data from London which is a week or more ahead of everywhere else in the UK as far as Omicron goes shows rates of admissions still increasing rapidly there:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476286980942147591

Also heading upwards in the rest of the country though a week or so behind. I've seen commentary which mentions it is difficult to tell how things will differ in other parts of the country. London has a younger population than the rest of the country but also lower vaccination rates. How will things turn out in areas with older and more-vaxxed populations? We're still guessing at this point.

Daily admissions (all causes) up 54% week on week in the UK:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476230510808637443

The vast majority of these will obviously be Covid-related. ICU numbers only increasing slowly in relation to this number which is a good sign, though transmission into older age groups is only really beginning to gather pace. It won't take too many increases of 50%+ per week to cause some serious issues but thank heavens for the vaccines!

A South Korean preprint has just been released which indicates that generation time for Omicron is a lot faster than Delta i.e. those infected become infectious much more quickly, something like 2.2 days vs 4 days. This would explain some of the reason for the massive increase in case numbers. 2-3 day doubling is certainly understandable if you become infectious just a couple of days after exposure and then perhaps don't show significant symptoms at all thereafter. It should mean a very fast but less sustained peak in cases, in theory (which would match what has been seen in Gauteng), though how this will play out with hospitalisations with the lag in older folk becoming infected in comparison to younger groups will be hard to tell. It might be that the peak of hospitalisations comes longer than we would expect after the peak of infections has been passed. But that's just a guess I've seen some make online. So many confounding variables to consider and Omicron is clearly very different to the previous variants we've seen.
 
Laurent06 said:
Quality has a price :D
Click to expand...

Indeed, and that's why you need a license. :D

Mariner said:
I think, in general, the estimate is that around a quarter of admissions with Covid tend to be 'incidental'. Difficult to parse the numbers exactly due to the way in which the data is presented as this article discusses:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...he-true-scale-of-uk-covid-hospital-admissions

Data from London which is a week or more ahead of everywhere else in the UK as far as Omicron goes shows rates of admissions still increasing rapidly there:
Click to expand...

London has a poor vaccination rate too, if ultimately the majority getting hopitilized are still the unvaccinated then I say good luck to them.

The way the numbers are measeured is a mess and should be cleared up, cases and deaths do tend to ignore everything else.
 
Mariner said:
I think, in general, the estimate is that around a quarter of admissions with Covid tend to be 'incidental'. Difficult to parse the numbers exactly due to the way in which the data is presented as this article discusses:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...he-true-scale-of-uk-covid-hospital-admissions
Click to expand...
This suggests only 20% are for C19, the rest being incidental. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/
Behind a paywall but John Campbell provides the numbers in his latest video. Sadly no link to the source data/research though.
 
Here's something kind of chilling to realize. The US doesn't have an accurate view on the spread of covid19.

In the US many states are passing out those home self-test kits and many stores are selling them as well. The test results are provided without any lab work required. In many states, such as the wonderful state of Ohio, there is no way for those results to enter the States' Department of Health systems. Anyone who has tested positive via those have no means available to them to provide the data to the state. The state is only setup for data to be submitted by the large clinical test entities.

The past month has seen a flurry of outbreaks through schools and a large portion of parents having to get quick test kits for their family with many being confirmed positive. However they will never be entered into the State's statistics. There simply isn't any means for the data to enter the system.

The only way they will be a part of the pandemic statistic system is if they are admitted to a hospital.
 
BRiT said:
Here's something kind of chilling to realize. The US doesn't have an accurate view on the spread of covid19.

In the US many states are passing out those home self-test kits and many stores are selling them as well. The test results are provided without any lab work required. In many states, such as the wonderful state of Ohio, there is no way for those results to enter the States' Department of Health systems. Anyone who has tested positive via those have no means available to them to provide the data to the state. The state is only setup for data to be submitted by the large clinical test entities.

The past month has seen a flurry of outbreaks through schools and a large portion of parents having to get quick test kits for their family with many being confirmed positive. However they will never be entered into the State's statistics. There simply isn't any means for the data to enter the system.

The only way they will be a part of the pandemic statistic system is if they are admitted to a hospital.
Click to expand...
Welcome to my world, I realized it sometime last week when I was with my wife at the ER and it's only gotten a LOT worse since then. I can't even imagine where we'll be in two weeks, we'll be breaking moar records!

USA #1!
 
Shifty Geezer said:
This suggests only 20% are for C19, the rest being incidental. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/
Behind a paywall but John Campbell provides the numbers in his latest video. Sadly no link to the source data/research though.
Click to expand...

So why have hospitalisations increased so much over the past week?

I wouldn't trust anything published by The Telegraph whose dishonesty and platforming of the 'Covid-deniers' throughout the pandemic has been pretty pathetic. The link is behind a paywall so I can't comment on that specifically. Unless The Telegraph are linking to freely-available data which is clearly presented, you can bet your bottom dollar that it isn't being truthful.

Campbell usually provides links to his sources. If he hasn't on this occasion, I would treat the numbers with suspicion.
 
Mariner said:
So why have hospitalisations increased so much over the past week?
Click to expand...
This is what Campbell quotes:

upload_2021-12-30_17-33-4.png

December 21: 6245 Covid19 patients in hospital
Up 259 from previous week
Of 259 admitted, only 45 admitted because of the virus - the rest were admitted for other reasons

I don't know what the source of that data is. It's apparently the 'most up to date NHS data' but I can't locate the source. Possibly buried in here:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Doesn't tally with dashboard data that says >1000 people were admitted on 21/12
 
No offense Shifty, but I'm not sure how much I trust Campbell when he has such vague sources for data that's such an outlier from other places. :/

What's gonna kill us in the US is that hospital ERs are currently full of people there to get C-19 tested, and they'll all be catching it in the process. :(

We REALLY need to crank out some at home test kits and distribute them for free, well we needed to do that over a year ago but we still need to!
 
Shifty Geezer said:
I don't know what the source of that data is. It's apparently the 'most up to date NHS data' but I can't locate the source. Possibly buried in here:
Click to expand...
From the UK COVID API this is the NHS data available to me.
This is hospitalization deltas. To note, this does not mean admissions on that particular day. Just the number of covid hospital cases active I believe. So there is an influx of admissions more than the outflow.

edit: hold up. I need to fix this.
 
digitalwanderer said:
No offense Shifty, but I'm not sure how much I trust Campbell when he has such vague sources for data that's such an outlier from other places. :/
Click to expand...
Why would that cause offence? I don't trust him either. I don't trust anyone and want access to the raw information to process myself. ;)

We have data that cases in hospital are up. We need to understand that. We have contradictory info and I want to know what's the real info. I've linked to Campbell's data but I can't resolve it with the UKHSA data so I'm dismissing it and continue to pursue a real insight.
 
iroboto said:
From the UK COVID API this is the NHS data available to me.
This is hospitalization deltas. To note, this does not mean admissions on that particular day. Just the number of covid hospital cases active I believe. So there is an influx of admissions more than the outflow.
Click to expand...
Is that Hospitalisations, or Covid19 Hospitalisations? The problem at the moment is we're counting people who have the virus, but that might not mean the virus is causing need to go to hospital. eg. If we tested for the common cold, we might find 50% of admissions testing positive for rhinovirus, but that rhinovirus would be responsible for none of the admissions.

What would be useful here is hospital admission rates regardless of reasons. In the absence of any other large contributing factor, any increase, especially in terms of 'excess hospital admissions' above baseline average, should be attributable to covid.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Is that Hospitalisations, or Covid19 Hospitalisations? The problem at the moment is we're counting people who have the virus, but that might not mean the virus is causing need to go to hospital. eg. If we tested for the common cold, we might find 50% of admissions testing positive for rhinovirus, but that rhinovirus would be responsible for none of the admissions.

What would be useful here is hospital admission rates regardless of reasons. In the absence of any other large contributing factor, any increase, especially in terms of 'excess hospital admissions' above baseline average, should be attributable to covid.
Click to expand...
Active Patients with Covid in hospital

All NHS Combined _Delta from the previous date.
VcEu5yS.png


NHS Broken down by region
okPNqKp.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top