Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Even within the same strain, as defined by health authorities and research communities, there still are small genetic variabilities. I'm sure some of those have higher chance of breaking through the vaccine than some others. Leaky vaccines, unfortunately, end up inadvertently selecting for those variations. Same reason we have tight control over anti-biotics. We don't want people taking anti-biotics half-assedly, because that ends up accelerating their evolution towards ever stronger variations.

Of course, the way bacteria and viruses reproduce is VERY different, and the way in which genetic variability comes about is not the same. Honestly I don't know how significant this type of evolutionary pressure actually is, but it is not zero. Might still be near negligible, though, or it might not.

Oh well, as long as you're sure.

NO NEED FOR SCIENCE, milk is sure.

Vaccines also work differently from Antibiotics.

No vaccines are 100%, all viruses mutate. Vaccines mean less virus mutations not more because they are existing in a host less frequently for less time.
More virulent strains will become dominant because of math.
 
That's true of every disease in circulation though, including 'the common cold'. Why single SARS-Cov-2 out especially?

See thread title. I didn't think small pox or rubella really adds to the discussion on covid. But we don't let them run unchecked either.
 
There needs to be a legitimate argument whether to fight a disease pre-emptively with vaccines or not, if the idea is to protect against a potential, unpredictable mutation into something deadly. So yeah, we don't let small pox or rubella run unchecked, but we do many other disease. The argument so far presented is that not trying to keep a lid on C19 means it could mutate into something nastier, but that's true of all viruses. So from my perspective, I want to know the reasoning why C19 should be treated like Small Pox instead of flu or HKU1 or Rhinovirus or RSV. Some Rhinovirus strains can cause considerable immune pressure on asthmatics for example. Why aren't we investing the resources to immunise everyone against rhinoviruses to 1) save asthmatic children from hospital and potential death and 2) prevent it mutating into something more threatening?

I'm not saying it should or shouldn't, but the reasoning to date generally leans on a limited perspective that doesn't consider the nuance of the situation IMHO including parallels with existing diseases that we just tolerate. A solid argument will spell out what makes C19 different in concern to the other diseases that have historically had a far more damaging effect on immune-naive populations than C19 has had and which also run the risk of mutating; is there (scientifically founded) reason to think C19 is substantially more likely to mutate into something nasty than everything else out there?
 
That's true of every disease in circulation though, including 'the common cold'. Why single SARS-Cov-2 out especially?

The other diseases in circulation have been around for a long time, we know if there are long-term sequelae, we know (in general), the best way to treat those infected who become very poorly. Evolutionary pressure on our ancestors by these viruses and bacteria has made sure that most of us aren't likely to suffer long term issues if infected. We have some basic immune response so only a miniscule fraction of the population is likely to suffer seriously if infected for most of these diseases - such as the other common cold coronaviruses.

The diseases which didn't become milder with time (smallpox, TB, diphtheria, dengue fever, cholera, measles etc etc), we've either tried to eradicate through vaccination, are trying to develop vaccines or have brought under control through other public health measures such as greater sanitation and treatments such as antibiotics. Influenza has been with us for a very long time and there's a very good reason we put plenty of effort into vaccines and treatments.

Given that COVID-19 has been in the human population for about 2 years and has killed millions already despite the modern scientific understanding we have and the restrictions we have put into place, why should it be treated the same as mild illnesses which so very rarely cause harm?
 
Oh well, as long as you're sure.

NO NEED FOR SCIENCE, milk is sure.

Vaccines also work differently from Antibiotics.

No vaccines are 100%, all viruses mutate. Vaccines mean less virus mutations not more because they are existing in a host less frequently for less time.
More virulent strains will become dominant because of math.

I did not make any wild claim there. I was pretty open about all the things I don't know. The only time I said "I'm sure" which you took issu with, was describing old stablished facts about virus behaviour. They have mutations, some don't affect their transmissibility, some do.

Yes, no vaccine is 100%. But the current Covid ones we have are specially leaky when it comes to contagion and transmission. That is not to say they aren't fantastically usefull since they are proven dramatically reduce risk of death and hospitalization, effectively flattening the curve. That has been TEH SCIENCE according to the very vaccine manufacturers since their erlier test results in Israel.

I'm not pushing back on vaccines. They are being fundamental in reducing deaths and the strain on hospitals and the health-system in general. My reserves are against naive assumptions that "if only everyone had taken these vaccines, no mew strains would have shown up". I can't see how that fits the data we have. The virus still circulates quite a lot even among the vaccinated, they are just not getting as sick. The mutations will still keep on happening.
 
I did not make any wild claim there. I was pretty open about all the things I don't know. The only time I said "I'm sure" which you took issu with, was describing old stablished facts about virus behaviour. They have mutations, some don't affect their transmissibility, some do.

Yes, no vaccine is 100%. But the current Covid ones we have are specially leaky when it comes to contagion and transmission. That is not to say they aren't fantastically usefull since they are proven dramatically reduce risk of death and hospitalization, effectively flattening the curve. That has been TEH SCIENCE according to the very vaccine manufacturers since their erlier test results in Israel.

I'm not pushing back on vaccines. They are being fundamental in reducing deaths and the strain on hospitals and the health-system in general. My reserves are against naive assumptions that "if only everyone had taken these vaccines, no mew strains would have shown up". I can't see how that fits the data we have. The virus still circulates quite a lot even among the vaccinated, they are just not getting as sick. The mutations will still keep on happening.


The virus 'circulates' mostly among the unvaccinated. Without that factor there would be less breakthroughs. So instead of 20% of the population having 80% of the covid you could have the vaccinated (100%) with significantly less cases than the 80% vaccinated have now. Even vaccinated breakthroughs carry smaller viral loads for less time so they are less likely to spread the disease and that makes it less likely to develop mutations.
 
Given that COVID-19 has been in the human population for about 2 years and has killed millions already despite the modern scientific understanding we have and the restrictions we have put into place, why should it be treated the same as mild illnesses which so very rarely cause harm?
Good arguments, except IMO the evaluation of C19 where you aren't comparing it to "The other diseases in circulation have been around for a long time" based on their impact on naive populations. When these silly little disease that are no harm to us, that we don't worry about, hit biologically naive populations, the fatalities are far worse than C19*. If you normalise C19 mortality and impact to the population ages that we know those other diseases were presented to, ignoring the over 75 deaths because there weren't any over 75s 100s of years ago for those diseases to affect, the profile of C19 seems pretty tame for a new disease on a biologically naive population. Flu has been shown to be far more dangerous from mutations in populations that already have good resistance to it and don't have co-morbidities. Ergo, any pre-emptive compulsory vaccination programme to stop C19 mutation should also be applied to flu, no, as a matter of priority to prevent the next Spanish Flu event.

* Edit: that's actually very hard to determine, which diseases of which harmfulness to us, are the killers, but we see ~50% of Amazonian natives et al wiped out by diseases introduced from loggers, missionaries, etc., who were not themselves ill.

Given that COVID-19 has been in the human population for about 2 years and has killed millions already despite the modern scientific understanding we have and the restrictions we have put into place, why should it be treated the same as mild illnesses which so very rarely cause harm?
There's so much wrong in that summary. The scientific understanding was pretty laughable, with science constantly changing its mind. If we'd known at the beginning what we know now, things might be different. Furthermore, many of the efforts were pretty incompetent. Thirdly, dealing with anything on a global scale throws up numbers like 'millions'. If you want meaningful data, you need to process those values sensibly, such as %age excess deaths for a given age range and health profile, and then normalise that for other populations other diseases encountered to get a decent comparison - that is, how does C19 fair against other diseases with naive populations and a demographic profile that matches (so not obese or with co-morbidities that would have resulted in early death in those other populations). Fourthly, initial treatments were found to do more harm than good, with early intubation being detrimental. Doctors were surprised that patients with low blood O2 levels were actually not doing too badly and could recover.

In short, these simplified over-generalisations miss all the bits we don't really know yet and can't compare. Simply looking at a bigger number and concluding this disease is worse as a result isn't scientific

The virus 'circulates' mostly among the unvaccinated.
Not sure what you mean by that. The vaccinated are known to be able to get reinfected and spread the disease. Half hospitalisations are among the vaccinated. If everyone was vaccinated, C19 is still going to be going around. Maybe, if everyone was vaccinated at the same time so everyone had active antibodies that stopped initial infection, the disease could be stopped, but that's logistically impossible. By the time you've vaccinated some people, other's ABs will be waning and they'll be open to infection. Because the disease is highly transmissible (going completely against initial scientific 'knowledge' from the 'experts' about this disease), it's going to keep going around, visiting people without active antibodies. The same as all the other diseases that are currently doing the rounds - my Polish friend had three days off two weeks ago from a cold caught from somewhere, and then the better part of a week off after that from a different disease caught from her daughter that's required antibiotics. Turns out our bodies only defend against infection well when there's a clear presence of said diseases. Antibodies serve a limited function in species survival against pathogens.

I'm sure there's some in a lab in wuhan.
In light of this incident, all known stocks of the smallpox virus were destroyed or transferred to one of two World Health Organization reference laboratories which had BSL-4 facilities—the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States and the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology VECTOR in Koltsovo, Russia.[2] Since 1984, these two labs have been the only ones authorized by the WHO to hold stocks of live smallpox virus.

I did not make any wild claim there. I was pretty open about all the things I don't know. ...I'm not pushing back on vaccines.
Yeah, I feel the discussion here isn't particularly open but largely aligned to a certain way of thinking and seeing things. I feel those of us offering a counterpoint are being looked down upon, as if in league with the antivaxxers etc. Trying to get people to acknowledge what they don't know, what none of us really knows, isn't proving particularly constructive or useful! :D

It's worth noting, as ever when looking at history, that we have precedent and good examples. eg. Smallpox vaccines were made compulsory, and had anti-vaccinators!
 
Last edited:
Breakthrough infections are not a product of new strains, they are mostly just a product of vaccines not being 100% effective and people with less effective immune response. The more it circulates the more chances of a mutation.

You also miss the part where the risk of letting it circulate unchecked possibly leads to more deadly strains. And instead of this becoming the common cold it becomes something much more deadly.
There is nothing in the world that is 100% effective. Even disinfectants say they are 99,99% effective.
I dont know how viruses work. But at least when it comes with antibiotics, they fasten the mutation of deadlier bacteria, because the weaker ones die off, and the stronger ones are only available for reproduction. Which doesnt allow for the body to catch up fast enough with its immunization building to face the stronger ones because it didnt manage to build immunization for the ones just before it.
What it is said about the mRNA vaccines is that the body responds to a small part of the virus' protein contained in the vaccine and immunizes to fight that small ID of the virus. So it appears at least to my eyes, without being an expert, that probably it allows for more mutations to reproduce and multiply.
 
The virus 'circulates' mostly among the unvaccinated. Without that factor there would be less breakthroughs. So instead of 20% of the population having 80% of the covid you could have the vaccinated (100%) with significantly less cases than the 80% vaccinated have now. Even vaccinated breakthroughs carry smaller viral loads for less time so they are less likely to spread the disease and that makes it less likely to develop mutations.

I'm curious about where you got those numbers from. And if those numbers included people who've taken their last dose of the vaccine a few months back. They contradict some of the ones I've seen, and some posted on this very thread.

I'm sure though, (sorry for using an expression you don't like) you would not pull out random numbers right after your very snarky comment about guesswork vs. science.
 
Indeed. Never before have we had access to so much free data to base our understandings on...
https://assets.publishing.service.g...37987/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-48.pdf

upload_2021-12-7_14-5-40.png

Government's official interpretation as talking about vaccine efficacy (vaccines are not about preventing (re)infection but preventing serious illness): https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2021/11/02/transparency-and-data-ukhsas-vaccines-report/
If we look at the numbers of cases in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated people, the rate of cases in the vaccinated people appears higher for many age groups.
 
What it is said about the mRNA vaccines is that the body responds to a small part of the virus' protein contained in the vaccine and immunizes to fight that small ID of the virus. So it appears at least to my eyes, without being an expert, that probably it allows for more mutations to reproduce and multiply.

You are overestimating the scope of the mutations.
 
Are you saying, that vaccinated people have less protection than unvaccinated?
:???: The point raised was the virus doesn't spread much among the vaccinated. The above is cited as disproof - case rates among the vaccinated can be higher, showing the vaccines don't stop you contracting the virus. Which is part of the counterargument to the larger hypothesis that (compulsory) vaccinations of everyone are the best way to prevent potential deadly mutations.

I would argue that selective vaccinations of those most in need is probably the way to minimise mutations assuming that the theory of Omicron's evolution in an immune-compromised individual is correct. And I would expect that such vaccinations wouldn't need to be mandatory as those people would welcome the protection the vaccines afford them; the reason they are unvaccinated is almost certainly they never got a chance because rollouts are very nationalistic.
 
I'm curious about where you got those numbers from. And if those numbers included people who've taken their last dose of the vaccine a few months back. They contradict some of the ones I've seen, and some posted on this very thread.

I'm sure though, (sorry for using an expression you don't like) you would not pull out random numbers right after your very snarky comment about guesswork vs. science.
I was using Canadian data.

Eg. Ontario rate among unvaccinated 13.8/100k. Vaccinated 3.8/100k.
Vaccination rate among people over 12 is 81%.

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

Sorry, I misread the vax rate, 81% of 12 - 17. So the 12+ total is much higher.
 
Last edited:
Indeed. Never before have we had access to so much free data to base our understandings on...
https://assets.publishing.service.g...37987/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-48.pdf

View attachment 6065

Government's official interpretation as talking about vaccine efficacy (vaccines are not about preventing (re)infection but preventing serious illness): https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2021/11/02/transparency-and-data-ukhsas-vaccines-report/
IMHO the footnotes are worth quoting:
1 Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness
against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is
summarised on pages 5 to 10 in this report.
The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not take into account underlying
statistical biases in the data and there are likely to be systematic differences between these 2 population groups. For example:
• people who are fully vaccinated may be more health conscious and therefore more likely to get tested for COVID-19 and so
more likely to be identified as a case (based on the data provided by the NHS Test and Trace)
• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age,
their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues
• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social
interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19
• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period
of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may have
contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks
2 Case rates are calculated using NIMS - a database of named individuals from which the numerator and the denominator come
from the same source and there is a record of each individuals vaccination status. Further information on the use of NIMS as the
source of denominator data is presented on page 18 of this report and in the further resources below.
Unadjusted case rates among persons vaccinated have been formatted in grey to further emphasise the caution to be employed
when interpreting these data.
 
Fair enough, legitimate data reference. How do you feel about your position now presented with alternative data points from different environments?
 
IMHO the footnotes are worth quoting:
Not in relation to the using the data to consider whether vaccination prevents people getting infected. Inaccuracies in the representation aren't going to extend to the vaccinated representing all of 20% of real case rates.
 
Back
Top