Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by RDGoodla, Feb 4, 2020.

  1. Mariner

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    The Delta variant is transmissible and virulent enough that, without restrictions, the health care system will be overwhelmed if the virus is left to run rife, leading to tens of thousands of avoidable deaths, many among younger people. No to mention the many people requiring non-Covid related treatment in the hospitals who won't be able to obtain it.

    Here's the SPI-M modelling of what would be likely to occur with a more transmissible variant. This was released by SAGE in mid-May, shortly before the first tranche of easing of restrictions took place, a warning that the government didn't heed. For reference, the current data seems to indicate Delta is at least 60% more transmissible than Alpha and there is also evidence it is much more likely to lead to hospitalisation of those infected (more than twofold, in fact):



    Due to the ongoing mutations, Delta is not like the original virus which shut down much of the globe last year. It is 2.5 times as transmissible and also more virulent (Alpha itself is 50% more deadly than the original virus and it is assumed Delta will be at least as virulent).

    It is not scaremongering, it is simple arithmetic when faced with a virus spreading exponentially among the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated. There won't be as many hospitalisations proportionally to the number of infections in previous waves due to the vaccine programme, but still more than enough to cause catastrophe. We do know, however, that the vaccines work against this variant. We are far enough on in our vaccination programme that it will only take a month or two of restrictions (hopefully not requiring a full lockdown), to get enough of the adult population fully vaccinated to dampen this wave of infections.
     
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  2. zed

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    Mate did you not see I will of had 2 vacinations(*) by the time I travel to a place with 5% of the population density, plus its very likely I have had the covid already before. True I wont be fully vaccinated, but I certainly will not be considered unvaccinated (and perhaps will be better protected than a fully vaccinated AZ etc person(**)).
    you can argue oh well theres the flight there, well I see you that and raise you the 1 hour metro journeys (spelling?) my GF takes each day going to work, shes an accountant and can work from home (and sometimes does, but the boss wants her there) ( btw I choose to work from home, you also work from home I take it, nice one mate )

    Albuquerque how dare you go unnecessarily multiple times unvaccinated to the supermarket etc over the course of the last year and you werent even wearing a mask at the start!, you could of not left your house and just ordered everything over the internet, your selfish actions have put other ppls lives at risk, and now you complain about a mask wearing person who will of had 2 vaccinations. i.e. the odds of me getting infected/infecting others is far lower than what you were doing. Of course what I say whilst true is also stupid

    I'm just toying with you and this shouldnt be taken seriously but I'm pointing out the absurdity of it, save your anger for the ppl really worthy of it. Like the vaccine deniers

    (*)would you prefer to work alongside someone whos had 2 shots of sinovac or someone whos just had the one shot of moderna (yes neither, but if you had the choice ;) )
    (**)from wiki, single pfizer vaccine is better than 2 AZ vaccines (or total vaccination of sinovac(*)) for the original variant, for the newer variants they look more closer but theres not really enough data as they dont go into the specifics enough to draw a clear conclusion
     
  3. zed

    zed
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    Yes theres a nice visualization of the R0 here compared to others
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420
    Its not yet here in large numbers but its only a matter of time, I'll do what I can to spread it around ( Might have to start taking the metro and start going into work, j/k )
     
  4. zed

    zed
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    Dont worry Its OK, theyve been fully vaccinated :evil:

    Sorry thats my last post on it, but I saw the video yesterday about the cricket (comeon the kiwis) and had to shake my head
     
  5. Mariner

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    It's a 'test' Test where everybody needs a recent negative PCR test result (I think it's a PCR) to attend. The authorities will then monitor to see how many spectators get the virus in the aftermath to see if it differs to the general community spread.
     
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  6. zed

    zed
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    Nice, they done something here recently as well WRT a concert
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56899764
    Though if you are comparing a english test cricket match with english ppl vs barcelona rock concert with catalan/spanish ppl obviously with the cricket match theres gonna be a lot more 'wild' behaviour.
    Same thing with my flight next month, you have to prove you dont have the owna
     
  7. Arnold Beckenbauer

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    Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant | medRxiv

    Erm, what?

    Delta is a beast: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-.../delta-variant-indian-covid-symptoms-vaccine/

    But:
    upload_2021-6-14_9-58-29.png
    And
    upload_2021-6-14_10-1-22.png
    upload_2021-6-14_9-58-29.png upload_2021-6-14_10-1-22.png
     
  8. Gubbi

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    Without normalization, the table is useless other than tellling us that a lot of people are getting delta.

    How many people has had their first shot in the last three weeks? How many have gotten the first jab more than three weeks ago ? How many has been vaccinated compared to non-vaccinated.

    We need normalized data to figure out how effective vaccines are against delta.

    Cheers
     
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  9. Mariner

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    Delta is spreading quickly amongst children and young adults and working its way up the age groups due to household transmission. The earlier variants didn't affect children too badly (and they still aren't falling very ill from Delta, in general), but they are obviously much more likely to pass on the infection to older people. Perhaps not too surprising, given the latest indications from the Zoe Covid Symptom Study:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051

    Rather than the dry cough, fever and loss of smell, it seems more people who catch Delta have symptoms of a bad cold - with running noses and so forth which might help to explain the opportunity for greater spread from children. Unfortunately, the data available appears to indicate that the risk of hospitalisation is also more than twofold compared to Alpha which itself was more dangerous than the previous variants.

    Looks as though the UK government is being sensible and delaying the removal of all restrictions on 21st June. As is typical from this government, rather than actually making an announcement, they have leaked details to the media to report (and no doubt spin on their behalf) and will then hold a press conference later today. Should allow 9 or 10 million second doses of vaccine to be given to adults which seems sensible to me, given that the vaccines still appear to be quite effective against Delta when a second dose is given.
     
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  10. Albuquerque

    Albuquerque Red-headed step child
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    I noticed that asterisk you put next to it; I noticed your original plan was to travel without the second shot. My statements still stand.
     
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  11. zed

    zed
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    True though based on what ppl said here, I decided to change my plan and now will have both shots before I leave.

    PS: not sure about your sig.
    I know theres something like 10^80 atoms in the universe, (i.e. less than a google atoms, I was shocked when I learnt that as I would of guessed like 10^1000 or something)
    no idea about a $100 note but prolly 10^19 or so (human body is 10^23 I think)
     
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  12. wco81

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    India is reporting lower cases the last couple of weeks.

    How are they managing it?

    At the peak of the crisis there, it was widely believed the numbers were unreliable, undercounting by a lot despite the reported numbers being very high.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

    South America seems to be improving a little.
     
  13. green.pixel

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  14. Albuquerque

    Albuquerque Red-headed step child
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    My sig is a raelly, really old Alexko quote :) Click the tiny arrow next to "Alexk said" and you can see the silly thread from back in 2015! Here is most of the original post...

    I didn't include the quote attribution in my sig because, back when I made it my signature in 2015, the sig length limits didn't permit enough room to do so. Maybe they do now? Hmm...

    EDIT: Hahaha, yup. The sig limits have been loosened since my prior attempt six years ago. Sig is now updated!

    EDIT #2: Booo! Sigs apparently don't hold UBB formating for quotes :( Lame!
     
    #3914 Albuquerque, Jun 19, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2021
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  15. zed

    zed
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    OK cheers, So Alexos fault is not taking density into consideration, just volume.
    Stars are very dense, but then again theres a hell of lot 'empty' space between them (though even this has like an atom per cm^3 I think, which is actually more than I thought)
    well based on this Alexos figures are actually pretty close
     
  16. WhiningKhan

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    So covid might increase stupidity of the mankind even further? :runaway:
     
  17. Gubbi

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    The sun is only 1.4 ton per cubic metre.

    The universe is mostly empty, a single cubic lightyear beer is more mass than what is in the known universe.

    Cheers
     
  18. zed

    zed
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    Surprisingly light, though it is mostly only H,He so I suppose it makes sense, I assume dwarf stars etc are a lot more denser.

    Dr Karl is always banging on about a m^3 gives off more energy than m^3 sun

    Not surprising at all, a lightyear is massive, and the universe is 'only' ~100 billion l/yr across
     
  19. wco81

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    It means people who can least be able to afford losing brain cells may be in danger of losing them because of their decisions.
     
  20. Arnold Beckenbauer

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    Is sneezing a symptom of COVID-19? (joinzoe.com)

     
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