The Delta variant is transmissible and virulent enough that, without restrictions, the health care system will be overwhelmed if the virus is left to run rife, leading to tens of thousands of avoidable deaths, many among younger people. No to mention the many people requiring non-Covid related treatment in the hospitals who won't be able to obtain it.
Here's the SPI-M modelling of what would be likely to occur with a more transmissible variant. This was released by SAGE in mid-May, shortly before the first tranche of easing of restrictions took place, a warning that the government didn't heed. For reference, the current data seems to indicate Delta is at least 60% more transmissible than Alpha and there is also evidence it is much more likely to lead to hospitalisation of those infected (more than twofold, in fact):
Due to the ongoing mutations, Delta is not like the original virus which shut down much of the globe last year. It is 2.5 times as transmissible and also more virulent (Alpha itself is 50% more deadly than the original virus and it is assumed Delta will be at least as virulent).
It is not scaremongering, it is simple arithmetic when faced with a virus spreading exponentially among the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated. There won't be as many hospitalisations proportionally to the number of infections in previous waves due to the vaccine programme, but still more than enough to cause catastrophe. We do know, however, that the vaccines work against this variant. We are far enough on in our vaccination programme that it will only take a month or two of restrictions (hopefully not requiring a full lockdown), to get enough of the adult population fully vaccinated to dampen this wave of infections.
Here's the SPI-M modelling of what would be likely to occur with a more transmissible variant. This was released by SAGE in mid-May, shortly before the first tranche of easing of restrictions took place, a warning that the government didn't heed. For reference, the current data seems to indicate Delta is at least 60% more transmissible than Alpha and there is also evidence it is much more likely to lead to hospitalisation of those infected (more than twofold, in fact):
Due to the ongoing mutations, Delta is not like the original virus which shut down much of the globe last year. It is 2.5 times as transmissible and also more virulent (Alpha itself is 50% more deadly than the original virus and it is assumed Delta will be at least as virulent).
It is not scaremongering, it is simple arithmetic when faced with a virus spreading exponentially among the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated. There won't be as many hospitalisations proportionally to the number of infections in previous waves due to the vaccine programme, but still more than enough to cause catastrophe. We do know, however, that the vaccines work against this variant. We are far enough on in our vaccination programme that it will only take a month or two of restrictions (hopefully not requiring a full lockdown), to get enough of the adult population fully vaccinated to dampen this wave of infections.
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