I've had my second dose of the AZ vaccine bumped forward due to the rapid spread of the 'Indian' B.1.617.2 variant in the UK - by a whole 6 days, so this weekend instead of the following one. I'm not going to complain, however and my wife is finally getting her first dose of the Pfizer vaccine tomorrow.
Unfortunately, the data for the 'Indian' B.1.617.2 variant in the UK really isn't looking great at present. Here's a good if long thread discussing the issues with the data available:
Although the vaccines offer good protection against the Indian variant, it is only really the fully vaccinated to get most of the benefit. They've calculated a figure that 1 dose of the AZ vaccine is roughly 33% effective at reducing symptomatic infection with B1.617.2 vs 50% against the B.1.1.7 'Kent' variant. Two doses 60% effective against the Indian variant 2 weeks after the 2nd dose (and probably extending further to around 80%+ a few weeks after that). Problem is, that this variant seems to be a
lot more transmissible and we have a lot of people who are weeks away from their 2nd dose. Not to mention younger adults who are weeks away from even their first dose (and there is a delay to immune response after that as well, of course). The extended gap between doses worked very well against B.1.1.7, but B.1.617.2 could prove to be a bigger issue.
We only have data to 15th May so far so it will be interesting to see what happens when the data for the rest of May becomes available. A lot depends on how much 1 dose of the vaccines reduces hospitalisations/deaths even if infections still occur, I suppose, but despite the government's rhetoric, I can't help but think that we're going to be seeing another lockdown during June or at least some of the relaxations in restrictions of the past week or two being rolled back.
Now the EU is getting their rollout of vaccines on track, you can hopefully keep the prevalence of the B.1.617.2 variant low enough that it won't be such an issue on the continent. You've certainly done the right thing in restricting visitors from the UK at an early stage. If only we'd done the same with visitors from India back in April.
I've got a holiday in the UK booked for late July and thought there wouldn't be any problem going on this one (I've had 3 holidays cancelled in the past 12 months so far!). B.1.617.2 might have something to say about my chances of having a summer break...