Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

ICU positive testing for California now growing at 2.2% a day, now around the level of April peak as tested. Realistically a bit below because testing wasn't quite up to snuff, but a couple more days should get California to a point worse than their previous peak.

The specificity of their reporting will make for an interesting test case, will deaths follow ICU infections. If not, why not?
 
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There is an argument that a lot of the most vulnerable people will already have died from the disease, so a second wave of infection would perhaps mean a lower mortality rate than previously seen. This would be allied to the hope that those previously infected have some immunity at present.

However, this assumes that exactly the same cohort of people are exposed to the disease once again and this obviously won't necessarily be the case. For states where there was little infection initially, a lot of people who previously weren't exposed are likely to be this time around, you'd have thought. Balancing this out, at least the authorities know that shielding care homes from infection is vitally important.

Of course, this assumes that the authorities are taking it seriously in the first place which is something far from guaranteed in many US states.
 
Other human factors than preserving life have started to creep in ... the QoL of mentally disabled and elderly took a nosedive due to social distancing and it gets worse with time, at some point the cure gets considered worse than the disease.
 
But there are also more costs than just life count, with permanent lung-damage being a penalty for some who recover. It's very hard to know where to draw the line but, realistically, mental health can be maintained by disciplined individuals and temporary fixes and only needs be endured a few more months, whereas things like lung damage and death are permanent. 100 people feeling rough for a few months knowing it'll end eventually is probably better than one person spending a few decades unable to breathe properly.

I don't know how one picks who to focus on. I think for politicians, it's simply a matter of winning public approval and votes, which I guess means the outcome will be what the majority want. So the situation in Florida presumably reflects what the Floridians want - out and about without restrictions and biological survival of the fittest. Whereas New Yorkers want everyone to be protected from the disease even at great cost.

Although that'd only really be true if there was a vote now for State governors where they'd state their policy and let the people decide. I doubt any of these were voted in ages ago based on how they'd handle an epidemic! ;)
 
Testing is at 13.6K. New cases on the higher side at 632 and hospitalizations at 68. I'm still hoping that new cases and hospitalizations drop to lower numbers, but it likely won't, not when there is no push or message by leadership to remain cautious. If they don't drop, I fear the numbers will drastically increase leading up to the upcoming Fourth of July Holiday week and be the start of a new surge.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

upload_2020-6-24_15-29-33.png

Here is the raw data for the last few days:

upload_2020-6-24_15-28-50.png

Code: 
Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-06-01;    398,066;    9,598;    34,055;    35,984;    4,508;    6,112;    2,206;    471;    63;    51
2020-06-02;    407,450;    9,384;    34,858;    36,350;    4,581;    6,176;    2,258;    366;    64;    52
2020-06-03;    423,521;    16,071;    36,232;    36,792;    4,669;    6,251;    2,299;    442;    75;    41
2020-06-04;    434,608;    11,087;    37,181;    37,282;    4,732;    6,312;    2,339;    490;    61;    40
2020-06-05;    443,533;    8,925;    37,944;    37,758;    4,789;    6,385;    2,355;    476;    73;    16
2020-06-06;    455,823;    12,290;    38,996;    38,111;    4,827;    6,460;    2,370;    353;    75;    15
2020-06-07;    466,279;    10,456;    39,890;    38,476;    4,858;    6,497;    2,377;    365;    37;    7
2020-06-08;    473,988;    7,709;    40,550;    38,837;    4,910;    6,550;    2,404;    361;    53;    27
2020-06-09;    487,583;    13,595;    41,713;    39,162;    4,939;    6,620;    2,421;    325;    70;    17
2020-06-10;    499,019;    11,436;    42,691;    39,575;    5,011;    6,693;    2,457;    413;    73;    36
2020-06-11;    509,699;    10,680;    43,605;    40,004;    5,057;    6,753;    2,490;    429;    60;    33
2020-06-12;    520,813;    11,114;    44,556;    40,424;    5,112;    6,814;    2,508;    420;    61;    18
2020-06-13;    535,943;    15,130;    45,850;    40,848;    5,144;    6,864;    2,554;    424;    50;    46
2020-06-14;    543,260;    7,317;    46,476;    41,148;    5,175;    6,895;    2,557;    300;    31;    3
2020-06-15;    554,128;    10,868;    47,406;    41,576;    5,220;    6,948;    2,573;    428;    53;    16
2020-06-16;    565,034;    10,906;    48,339;    42,010;    5,271;    7,007;    2,597;    434;    59;    24
2020-06-17;    581,444;    16,410;    49,743;    42,422;    5,336;    7,051;    2,611;    412;    44;    14
2020-06-18;    596,875;    15,431;    51,063;    43,122;    5,404;    7,104;    2,633;    700;    53;    22
2020-06-19;    612,854;    15,979;    52,430;    43,731;    5,481;    7,167;    2,667;    609;    63;    34
2020-06-20;    626,765;    13,911;    53,620;    44,262;    5,555;    7,201;    2,697;    531;    34;    30
2020-06-21;    639,991;    13,226;    54,752;    44,808;    5,633;    7,242;    2,700;    546;    41;    3
2020-06-22;    656,318;    16,327;    56,148;    45,537;    5,734;    7,292;    2,704;    729;    50;    4
2020-06-23;    667,077;    10,759;    57,069;    46,127;    5,820;    7,379;    2,735;    590;    87;    31
2020-06-24;    680,687;    13,610;    58,233;    46,759;    5,964;    7,447;    2,755;    632;    68;    20
 
Arizona reported +1,795 new cases (59,974 total) and has passed by Virginia (59,514 total). The are now the 12th highest US case count.

Maryland is at 65,337 total. It would take around 4 days at the current trends for Arizona to move past this spot.
 
BRiT said:
As of now, Florida is reporting +5,511 new cases since yesterday putting their 22 day streak at 51,567 total for an average of 2343 a day.

That is more than the entire lifetime number of pandemic cases in Ohio (46,759).
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hmmm. curious to see what will happen.
Does leadership admit to wrong, the virus is real, it kills, it's a problem and they lock down again until they figure out what to do...

or...

do they double down on the fact that the lockdowns were overblown and continue forward and eventually just stop reporting on cases to avoid the pressure.
 
iroboto said:
do they double down on the fact that the lockdowns were overblown and continue forward and eventually just stop reporting on cases to avoid the pressure.
Click to expand...

My guess is they act as if no response is required given that it's been 22 days on the current surge and no reactions. However, despite the lack of leadership in some areas, some businesses are doing the correct thing and reinstituting their own forced work from home policy.

I'm in a relatively better off part of the country when it comes to the pandemic spread, and my work has no plans to change their policy by asking people to return to work at the office. They're having as many as possible work from home. They did have one employee from the Cincinnati region test positive for COVID19 so they entirely shut down that office for a full cleansing. I don't think they were working at the office, but they took the needed steps.

So hopefully most businesses will continue to do the right thing, regardless of the State leadership.
 
iroboto said:
hmmm. curious to see what will happen.
Does leadership admit to wrong, the virus is real, it kills, it's a problem and they lock down again until they figure out what to do...

or...

do they double down on the fact that the lockdowns were overblown and continue forward and eventually just stop reporting on cases to avoid the pressure.
Click to expand...
At some point people will get turned away from the hospitals and then it'll hit the news. It'll be too late by then and any measures will be followed by weeks of increasing cases and increasing pressure on exhausted medical resources. The State will have to put up some emergency hospitals and then it'll be very public, I guess. I don't think they can sweep what's happening under the rug once it's past 5% infected* and into 10 and 20% infected and everyone knowing someone who's needed medical attention.

* Going by antibody tests, places that have had high hospitalisations have only had a few percent of the population actually exposed to Covid19, so the reality of a full-on, unrestricted spread is going to be at least 5x whatever the worse death rate is so far. For the UK, 40,000 dead so far suggests 200,000 to 400,000 would die without any containment.

Incidentally, UK result show 70-80% are asymptomatic, completely differently to the WHO's early guidelines. It's that which makes Covid19 control a social thing. Individuals may be fine, but may also be spreading a killer disease. You have to maintain a conscious awareness of the risk you may be presenting because there are zero outwards signs to remind you or cause a reactionary change in behaviour like staying home because you feel unwell.
 
State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

75af1a2d-68d9-450a-9ce9-ccd60b8fbfe3.png


https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

Data as of 6/24/2020 @3:50 PM:

Total Tests: 1,836,037 (Up +30,395)

Total Viral Tests: 1,630,258 (Up +32,968)

Only 88.8% of Total Tests are Viral Tests the other 11.2% of tests are the useless Antibody Tests

Cases Reported: 125,921 (Up +5,551)

Fatalities: 2,249 (Up +29)

Texas tests per 1M population are 63,321 (Up +530) which places Texas as the 9th worst State. No change from yesterday.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column twice to sort from worst to first

They are using roughly 28.996 million as the population of Texas.

Texas is mixing Viral and Antibody Tests in the total test numbers which is very bad as Antibody Tests are useless in determining if someone has the Coronavirus.

As of today the real number of Total Viral Tests for Texas is 1,630,258 which works out to be 56,224 per 1M population so Texas is really the 6th worst state in testing
 
Cases in Texas are exploding right now.

Today's case increase is 5,551 a new all time high. Not Good.

Last seven day's case increases are 5,551, 5,489, 3,280, 3,866, 4,430 3,454, 3,516

First day that cases exceeded 2000 was June 10th.
First day that cases exceeded 3000 was June 17th.
First day that cases exceeded 4000 was June 20th.
First day that cases exceeded 5000 was June 23th.

The numbers of cases in Texas for each week since June 1, 2020 is :

June 1-7 : Total Cases 10,691 - Average of 1,527 per day
June 8-14 : Total Cases 12,876 - Average of 1,839 per day - 20% higher than the previous week
June 15-21 : Total Cases 22,271 - Average of 3,182 per day - 73% higher than the previous week
June 22-24 : Total Cases 14,320 - Average of 4,773 per day - 50% higher than the previous week - Three days for the week so far
 
2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

June 24, 2020 - 18,135 confirmed cases - 328 deaths

18,135 confirmed cases up 391 and four new deaths
those 391 new cases represent a 2.2% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) since March 27, 2020 :
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
-- Month of April 2020 --
15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
-- Month of May 2020 --
5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%
-- Month of June 2020 --
2.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%,
2.1%, 2.8%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.6% and now 2.2%

Increases (by count) since March 27, 2020 :
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82
-- Month of April 2020 --
+100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
+80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
-- Month of May 2020 --
+187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
+205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171, +190, +197, +202, +200, +219, +228
-- Month of June 2020 --
+228, +257, +239, +285, +298, +289, +263, +254, +298, +300, +312, +328, +345, +302, +305,
+306, +413, +392, +394, +395, +408, +454, +445 and now +391

As of 11:00 am June 24, 2020, Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 391 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 18,135, including 328 deaths.

The additional 4 deaths being reported today include:

  • A man in his 60’s who was a resident of the City of Grand Prairie. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A man in his 80’s who was a resident of the City of Cedar Hill. He had been hospitalized, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A woman in her 80’s who was a resident of the City of Grand Prairie. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A woman in her 80’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas. She expired in an area hospital ED, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
An increasing proportion of COVID-19 cases in Dallas County are being diagnosed in young adults between 18 to 39 years of age, such that of all cases reported after June 1st, almost half have been in this age group.

Of cases requiring hospitalization, more than two-thirds have been under 65 years of age, and about half do not have any high-risk chronic health conditions. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The age-adjusted rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases in non-hospitalized patients have been highest among Hispanics (667.4 per 100,000), Asians (187.4 per 100,000) and Blacks (136.4 per 100,000). These rates have been higher than Whites (43.8 per 100,000). Over 60% of overall COVID-19 cases to date have been Hispanic.

Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, over 80% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first responders and other essential functions. The percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased to 23.2% at area hospitals in week 24.

Of the 328 total deaths reported to date, over a third have been associated with long-term care facilities.
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I heard from the local newscast that Houston area has nearly all of their ICU beds in use. They also mentioned southern Florida is nearing capacity as well. It was hard to catch it all as it was just a 30 second blurb in passing and didn't have refined details.

Doing a quick search turned this up:

https://wiod.iheart.com/featured/fl...pitals-near-capacity-as-covid-19-cases-spike/

As coronavirus continues spiking across South Florida hospitals are nearing capacity. The ICU at Homestead Hospital has hit the max with positive patients and is now transferring some patients to other hospitals. Jackson Memorial Nurses Union President Martha Baker says they only have about 10-percent bed capacity left. She says they are still performing elective surgeries, but she's not sure how much longer that will even last. Miami-Dade residents are now being required to wear masks in all public spaces to try and stop the spread.​

https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...read/285-aad0788d-256e-4454-8e3f-87f9c7956680

As the number of patients hospitalized with the coronavirus has reached record highs 12 days in a row, there are warning signs that Houston hospitals are nearing a tipping point.​

At the Texas Medical Center in Houston, 97 percent of ICU beds were occupied on Tuesday. Twenty-seven percent of those ICU patients have COVID-19.​

The normal base occupancy rate at the world's largest medical center is 70 to 80 percent.

The hospitals have contingency plans to add additional ICU beds for temporary surges. But if the number of COVID cases continues at the current rate, the TWC could fill up all of those beds in the next two weeks.

"Sustainable surge capacity" is a federal requirement that hospitals must be able to repurpose general beds into ICU beds, adding ventilators, monitoring equipment, and trained staff.

"Emergency surge capacity" is what Texas Medical Center leaders consider "crisis level," giving examples of two patients staying in the same room, increasing patient-to-nurse ratios, and converting non-patient care spaces into places where the critically ill can be treated, as well as setting up field hospitals.

“That’s crisis level. That’s New York, Lombardi sort of crisis," said Dr. James McDeavitt, the Senior Vice President and Dean of Clinical Affairs at Baylor College of Medicine. Dr. McDeavitt also serves as one the leaders of the Texas Medical Center, helping with planning for surge capacity scenarios.

“We can do surge for a good long while and get through this. We can’t do emergency surge for a long time," he said.
​
 
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