Computex ARM Netbook Frenzy

[Entropy]

I don't think that the netbook market today really reflects the future. Rather it is indicative of a direction. As soon as netbooks started being available, they were adopted by the market, and in relatively large numbers. They are still too new a phenomenon to really have penetrated the market, most consumers change computers with intervals of several years so the overwhelming majority haven't had reason to even consider netbooks yet. Non-enthusiast people tend to buy what they know, so it may take one or even two new purchases before they take the plunge. It will be half a decade or more until we have a better grasp of where the netbook phenomenon is going. It is still very unclear what will be the dominant form of computing device in the next decade, with a screen larger than a cell phone can practically accomodate.

But we already know that
a) many people feel at home with the general netbook concept.
b) they follow and reinforce existing trends of lowered prices and portability.
c) they will diversify.

 

[Albuquerque]

Yeah, that's the theory, that's how it should be. But in reality a lot of people pick up Netbooks INSTEAD of a new "real" PC/Notebook.

Ok, I have an honest question -- will the average 40 to 50 year old who doesn't have a job in IT require a "real" laptop for their computing needs?

I keep hearing this argument, and I don't agree with it. My 50-year old mother and stepfather do NOT need a Core i7 965 to surf the web. they don't need an E8400 to write a word document. They don't even need a T2300 to use Outlook 2007. Hell, I have a Pentium MMX 166 (the original variety, with the 66mhz bus using fast page mode ram) that can play back 320kbps VBR MP3 files with cycles to spare.

We've hit a point where processing power has far outstripped the needs of the "basic" user, and we're talking by multiple orders of magnitude. Yes, netbooks have far less horsepower than a "real" laptop, but 90% of the general computing population doesn't use one quarter of the horsepower that a "real" laptop would provide.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Well other than briefly during the Windows 2.0-3.11 era, computers of the time have always been vastly more powerful than the average home user would need.

Even back in the days of the 8088, it was generally more than you needed for simple word processing and spreadsheets which is about all most average home owners needed them for.

It's only when trying to do additional tasks that computer power comes into play as a potentially limiting factor.

So, yes, a netbook can be perfectly fine if a user never runs into a situation where they might feel slowed down. And heck even for a lot of home users, slow downs are acceptable since they don't even know that it's slow.

There ARE some other potentially large issues however. For people like my dad who's eyes are starting to age. It's not easy for him to read text on any desktop LCD at native resolution. Netbooks would thus have greatly limited display space if used as a primary and only computer unless you also bought a large screen monitor to go with it. Which sorta cuts down on the price advantage quite a bit.

200-300 USD netbook versus 600-700 USD (including 200 USD monitor) pretty attractive. Change that to 400-500 USD (adding large monitor) netbook setup versus 600-700 USD desktop setup and it's not quite as attractive. Add to that if you then also add in a full sized keyboard and mouse to make typing and navigation easier and you're slowly eroding the attractiveness of a netbook as the only computer. At least for older people.

Regards,
SB

 

[Albuquerque]

Ok, but people buy what accommodates their need.

People with limited vision or needing extra-large keyboards won't buy a "netbook"; that's just not a valid argument. They probably wouldn't even buy a laptop, unless it came in a 17" variety. People who need to develop databases and generate rich hi-def content won't want the tiny form factor either. Nor will hardcore gamers.

I keep hearing arguments applied to Netbooks that don't even exist -- people who have these needs aren't even in the market for a netbook! It's like saying that the heft of a full-size case on a desktop will push away those folks who want mobility -- you know what, if they want mobility, the size of a desktop case isn't going to dissuade them from a desktop platform, it's simply not even in their scope of options.

 

[wco81]

What about editing and browsing a large library of photos? Even if you don't run Photoshop or some higher-end program like Lightroom, it doesn't hurt to have the graphics to scroll through thumnails.

Not to mention the storage options which aren't available on a netbook.

Then you can add in things like audio and video media as well.

And even browsers could use up a lot of resources with a lot of tabs open on some sites with Java, Flash, etc.

 

[Albuquerque]

What about editing and browsing a large library of photos? Even if you don't run Photoshop or some higher-end program like Lightroom, it doesn't hurt to have the graphics to scroll through thumnails.

If your primary use of a computer is editing large quantities of photos, why would you buy one with a 9" monitor? That doesn't make sense.

Not to mention the storage options which aren't available on a netbook.

Like what? It's a standard 2.5" form factor drive; you can get 500GB in it even today. Or are you talking about external media? If you want to burn DVD's, then why would you buy a system without an optical drive? This again doesn't make sense.

Then you can add in things like audio and video media as well.

Video manipulation goes hand-in-hand with your first flawed example of large library of photos. If your primary use for the machine is video editing, why would you buy something with a 9" viewport? That's dumb.

And even browsers could use up a lot of resources with a lot of tabs open on some sites with Java, Flash, etc.

And? I've got nine tabs open in Chrome; I opened several of them just because of this thread. While simultaneously playing an HD YouTube video, two Flash games (Tower Defence and Blox), a query in NewEgg for DDR3 ram, this forum, two more car forums that I like, my Google Picasa account, and my OWA account through work, it's using about 18% of my T2300 processor and about 200mb of ram.

So why is this going to be a problem for a netbook; especially one with a 9" viewport?

Again, I keep hearing examples of why they're bad, but none of these examples are really applicable. If you need a freaking box truck, you don't go buy a Geo Metro. If you need a daily driver that gets excellent gas mileage and can carry you and your briefcase to work every day in relative comfort, you don't need a box truck.

Why are we comparing box truck needs to a Geo Metro platform?

 

[wco81]

Because 50-somethings and "normal non-computer-dorky person" would be likely to edit photos, audio/video, etc.

 

[Blazkowicz]

last time I saw a netbook thread.. I thought, ARM netbooks are probably pointless next to an x86 + gpu netbook.
but cost and battery life are everything. also even if non-x86 it would be infinitely more usable than smartphones, cracked consoles or handeld stuff like gamepark GP2x.

That's just a shortcoming of the OS (lack of resolution independent GUI).

What's bugging me: Why is Nvidia calling Netbooks with ARM CPUs "MIDs"???

because they want to sell the ION netbooks as "full computers", maybe.

I love the comments at engadget - some of those are sane, but others prove nothing but the fact they didn't even bother opening the video. Oops? IMO, NV probably should have claimed that it's a "custom 3D operating system based on Windows CE" rather than say "it's Windows CE with a custom UI". I'm also curious about their emphasis on Flash apps (too bad real 3D games aren't really possible there), and hopefully they'll point out Firefox mobile supports Google Docs which I think is a key selling point for the student market. So, what do you guys think?

yes, they could have claimed that given their history of arrogant claims.. like Google Android, touted as a "custom OS based on the linux kernel", rather than a set of libraries running on an existing OS.
Windows CE identifies nicely with smart phone, PDA and other "half computers", though.

I would rather have linux and X11. netbooks are meant to run full apps, not be a glorified crap-phone, I meant smart-phone.

regarding Google Docs. it may be used with wifi (one major use of netbooks). it might be used a bit with 3G.. but you quickly risk getting a $100 phone bill or something for using that network bandwith!
netbooks are meant to be used on the go, which means you probably won't have an internet connection (you might get a 3G plan, for 30€ per month IN ADDITION to existing cell phone and internet bills, so it's entirely not a solution for low-cost minded people)
so, give me OpenOffice.org (may be a bit slow, but we have enough memory) or Abiword (which I use on my desktop computer already)

 

[Blazkowicz]

And? I've got nine tabs open in Chrome; I opened several of them just because of this thread. While simultaneously playing an HD YouTube video, two Flash games (Tower Defence and Blox), a query in NewEgg for DDR3 ram, this forum, two more car forums that I like, my Google Picasa account, and my OWA account through work, it's using about 18% of my T2300 processor and about 200mb of ram.

So why is this going to be a problem for a netbook; especially one with a 9" viewport?

web browsing is extremely CPU intensive those days. even with your numbers, 18% of your dual core CPU is like 36% of a core 2 core (sic), which is similar to 100% of an Atom core or 200% of a lowly, much sub 1GHz ARM.
that's not accounting for the efficiency of your html and javascript engines, and your good quality drivers and flash plugin. running firefox on linux is a tad worse.

We need a bit of processing power!
a dual core nvidia tegra would be nice (same in order "MPCore" cpu). not that dual core is really needed per se, but because the lone core is weak; I've used an outdated PC once, with two outdated CPUs and 7200rpm SCSI disks, the "dual core" nature of it made it pleasant. (compared to before the upgrade, where it would grind to a halt. one pentium pro 200 w/ 128MB upped to two pentium pro w/ 160MB).

 

[Laurent06]

18% of your dual core CPU is like 36% of a core 2 core (sic), which is similar to 100% of an Atom core or 200% of a lowly, much sub 1GHz ARM.
[...]
a dual core nvidia tegra would be nice (same in order "MPCore" cpu). not that dual core is really needed per se, but because the lone core is weak

It's no secret nVidia has a license of Cortex-A9 MPCore which is faster than Atom at the same frequency. Let's wait and see what they do with it

 

[dZeus]

I'd say that mainly flash and horribly poorly coded sites are CPU intensive. Hopefully the next HTML spec will provide with a less-cpu intensive alternative to many uses of flash.

Further more, if a large enough share of the userbase uses netbooks, websites will start to optimize for these devices.

 

[Entropy]

I'd say that mainly flash and horribly poorly coded sites are CPU intensive. Hopefully the next HTML spec will provide with a less-cpu intensive alternative to many uses of flash.

Further more, if a large enough share of the userbase uses netbooks, websites will start to optimize for these devices.

Adobe has been quite anxious for Apple to support Flash with the iPhone. If Flash abuse in advertising had been kept in check, other issues could probably be worked out, but as it stands advertising using Flash is the main culprit in making websites unwieldy (and feeling like you're trying to read a pinball machine). What if a world without Flash would simply be ... a better place?

I think it would be a good idea if the emergence of computationally lighter internet devices put the spotlight on an area that has developed without control. Much of my browsing is done with some features turned off that I have to turn on again for specific content. It's a hassle and an annoyance - but still less of an annoyance than blipping, wrooming, stroboscopic ads, pop-up/pop-under windows and so on. And this is in addition of performance concerns. Who wouldn't burst a vessel if turning a page in a newspaper took several seconds due to new ads having to be downloaded and initialized?

 

[Wishmaster]

Can someone explain to me why tegra is only pushed into netbooks where faster CPU wise snapdragon is used in both netbooks(smartbooks) and smartphones?
And what's with that hype around tegra where its only ARM11 CPU both OMAP3 and snapdragon are faster...

 

[Blazkowicz]

It's no secret nVidia has a license of Cortex-A9 MPCore which is faster than Atom at the same frequency. Let's wait and see what they do with it

alright, but I wonder what's the trade off regarding silicon and power budget, will they do a cheap! dual core ARM11 before or go for a single core cortex-A9.
that later one would be much better for running quake 3, though. dual core cortex if they want, fine with me

yep that single ARM11 looks slow.
regarding flash, I use the flashblock extension as the one and only extension to filter out the web (it's easy and I don't have to maintain lists). but I still suffer javascript the most. ads I tend to filter out with my brain or go on sites that respect me a bit more.

 

[pcchen]

Because 50-somethings and "normal non-computer-dorky person" would be likely to edit photos, audio/video, etc.

If your primary usage of computers involves editing photos, audio/video, of course you'll find desktop computers important, and netbooks, MIDs as sidekicks.

However, it also does not have to go this way. For many people, the only things they want to do to their photos are quite limited: adding some captions, adding frames, color correction, red-eye removal, etc. These can actually be done with a netbook, or even a smart phone.

Video editing is of course more demanding. However, at least for me the most works I've done to my home video is just cutting, adding title/captions, color adjustments, noise removal, etc. These are currently quite CPU intensive but they can actually be done with a GPU/DSP with ease. I can foresee that in near future some netbook will have the power to do these works.

 

[Arun]

What's bugging me: Why is Nvidia calling Netbooks with ARM CPUs "MIDs"???

Back at MWC that was because of the Psion vs Intel lawsuit about the 'netbook' word; now they're using *both* MID and netbook but focusing mostly on the former, so I'm not sure what's going on.

What about editing and browsing a large library of photos? Even if you don't run Photoshop or some higher-end program like Lightroom, it doesn't hurt to have the graphics to scroll through thumnails.

Editing is certainly a problem (but then again the screen size would be one anyway), but scrolling through thumbnails is likely to be BETTER on an ARM netbook than on a x86 notebook, IMO, because of the JPEG/Huffman acceleration. Just watch this video starting at 1:25 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTEaWfTO-zE&feature=channel

I would rather have linux and X11. netbooks are meant to run full apps, not be a glorified crap-phone, I meant smart-phone.

You DO realize x86 apps don't always port automatically to ARM, right? It's certainly much easier in the open source world than for full Windows, but that doesn't mean it's as wonderful as you think it is. Android has one MASSIVE advantage: it's the ultimate trojan horse because the 3rd party applications are all in Java. That means in theory they should work the same on x86 and ARM.

What I think will happen is Android will become a relatively common distribution for x86 netbooks (Acer claims they'll release one in Q3, although I doubt it'll be very good), and this will create an ecosystem around it. And then ARM will benefit from all that work instantly, which is very different than what'd happen with a normal Linux distribution.

regarding Google Docs. it may be used with wifi (one major use of netbooks). it might be used a bit with 3G.. but you quickly risk getting a $100 phone bill or something for using that network bandwith!

I'm frankly not sure what kind of bandwidth Google Docs takes, but I'm pretty confident you're overestimating it by at least an order of magnitude. Most dataplans come with several GBs of bandwidth minimum nowadays... So unless you're using it in a foreign country...

netbooks are meant to be used on the go, which means you probably won't have an internet connection (you might get a 3G plan, for 30€ per month IN ADDITION to existing cell phone and internet bills, so it's entirely not a solution for low-cost minded people)

You do realize NVIDIA is actually working on carriers being their primary distribution channel for the first Tegra netbooks, right? I agree it's dumb to lock you to a contract for such a cheap product, but I d believe it's a very attractive channel to educate customers about a new kind of product and having so much control over the product's software must be making carriers jump all over the place with excitement.

so, give me OpenOffice.org (may be a bit slow, but we have enough memory) or Abiword (which I use on my desktop computer already)

I personally think Google Docs is good enough for a good bit of the market (certainly far from all), but the Linux netbooks from Freescale and Qualcomm do have OpenOffice IIRC. I don't think it would be easy to port to Android, but certainly not impossible.

Can someone explain to me why tegra is only pushed into netbooks where faster CPU wise snapdragon is used in both netbooks(smartbooks) and smartphones?
And what's with that hype around tegra where its only ARM11 CPU both OMAP3 and snapdragon are faster...

Wow, you've been on this forum for how long? Come on, you know better than this: a) Tegra smartphone from *at least* 3 large OEMs and several ODMs are in the works. b) OMAP3 and Snapdragon's multimedia architectures are a joke, and both are significantly more expensive. However, for netbooks, they are certainly very attractive (in most ways better than Tegra) because of their faster CPUs. c) OMAP4 looks very good but that's very far in the future, and Snapdragon2 is nice but even farther in the future.

alright, but I wonder what's the trade off regarding silicon and power budget, will they do a cheap! dual core ARM11 before or go for a single core cortex-A9.

Cortex-A9 vs. 2xARM11 would obviously be much faster for real workloads yet not cost more. So I think it's pretty easy to see what the answer is...

 

[Wishmaster]

Wow, you've been on this forum for how long? Come on, you know better than this: a) Tegra smartphone from *at least* 3 large OEMs and several ODMs are in the works. b) OMAP3 and Snapdragon's multimedia architectures are a joke, and both are significantly more expensive. However, for netbooks, they are certainly very attractive (in most ways better than Tegra) because of their faster CPUs. c) OMAP4 looks very good but that's very far in the future, and Snapdragon2 is nice but even farther in the future.

That is my point exactly.
Tegra is more attractive for smartphones than it is for netbooks and yet nvidia tries to make it the ultimate platform for netbooks(compare numbers of netbook/tablet devices to *few* smartphones that are supposed to come 3Q). I know that *few* smartphones are in works but IMO they should focus more on pocket devices for example 4inch screen with slideout keyboard (similar to OQO 2) would be a killer combination better than netbook. Tegra2 with cortex A9 MPcore would be great for netbooks but tegra1 isn't...
Pushing 600mhz ARM11 netbook against 1Ghz Cortex one is stupid...

 

[Mike11]

OMAP4 looks very good but that's very far in the future, and Snapdragon2 is nice but even farther in the future.

Snapdragon 2? Ups, I guess I missed something. I thought the latest known Snapdragon to be sampled (in late 2009) was the QSD8650A (45nm 1,3GHz) and QSD8672 (Netbook 45nm Dual-Core)?

 

[Arun]

That is my point exactly.
Tegra is more attractive for smartphones than it is for netbooks and yet nvidia tries to make it the ultimate platform for netbooks(compare numbers of netbook/tablet devices to *few* smartphones that are supposed to come 3Q). I know that *few* smartphones are in works

Well that's not really their fault is it? I basically agree with you but heh. There are also plenty of wins we don't know about; for example I suspect they are in at least one of the only four phones for the td-scdma China Mobile network via Yulong. Once again not their fault you don't care about that I kinda think you're underestimating the wins they've got there really.

Tegra2 with cortex A9 MPcore would be great for netbooks but tegra1 isn't...
Pushing 600mhz ARM11 netbook against 1Ghz Cortex one is stupid...

Well, the main netbook SKU is 750MHz. And web browsing is determined quite a bit by how the browser exploits the 3D GPU. But yeah I agree. I don't know about 4-5" MIDs but they do imply they've got wins in that area. We'll see if they ever turn out.

Wrt Snapdragon2, I obviously meant the QSD8672

 

[Wishmaster]

Well that's not really their fault is it? I basically agree with you but heh. There are also plenty of wins we don't know about; for example I suspect they are in at least one of the only four phones for the td-scdma China Mobile network via Yulong. Once again not their fault you don't care about that I kinda think you're underestimating the wins they've got there really.

Well you're right I don't care about ARM netbooks. I prefer ultraportables like OQO did before they went bankrupt. Besides I think that ultraportables(Pocketable Computing Device as once qualcomm called those types of devices) could become even more popular then netbooks. Considering small size and good performance.

Well, the main netbook SKU is 750MHz. And web browsing is determined quite a bit by how the browser exploits the 3D GPU. But yeah I agree. I don't know about 4-5" MIDs but they do imply they've got wins in that area. We'll see if they ever turn out.

Even if they use GPU for browser it will be smoother but I don't believe it will make it render sites faster at least as fast as omap3 or snapdragon.

Wrt Snapdragon2, I obviously meant the QSD8672

I figured that one out but this is still at least one year till we see any prototype running dual core 1,5Ghz but that is something worth waiting for. Same goes to msm8xxx considering that it is probably the best we can get from single core SoC.