Computex ARM Netbook Frenzy

[Arun]

Updated Link List
Tegra-based various devices: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hlgq-2IkkHU
Freescale-based Wistron N900z: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSjqqYwcyeo&feature=channel
Qualcomm-based Android smartbook: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bk6arGe1EEg
TI-based Android netbook shell: http://www.engadget.com/2009/06/02/video-ecs-t800-netbook-brings-us-to-our-knees-with-android-on-1/
Complete(?) list of Tegra ODM designs being showed at Computex: http://www.nvidia.com/object/tegra_odm_devices.html
Tegra-based Mobinnova elan/N910: http://www.engadget.com/2009/06/02/video-tegra-based-mobinnova-elan-running-windows-ce-on-tegra-ro/

If anyone finds more good links to videos or extra info, let me know!

-----

Let's use this thread to follow the netbook & MID (aka smartbooks) announcements at Computex... (June 2-6). EETimes published two articles about Qualcomm and Freescale's solutions in the last few days:
http://www.eetimes.eu/design/217700855
http://www.eetimes.eu/consumer/217700918

Several of Taiwan's contract design and manufacturing companies will show smartbooks at Computex based on Freescale's iMX51 processor, Burchers said. Branded OEM product launches are not expected until the fall.

[...]

Some of the ARM-based systems will sell for as little as $199. Atom-based notebooks typically sell for $399 to $599. Taiwan's Pegatron and Wistron will both show clamshell smartbooks at Computex. Burchers said he believes the companies have deals to sell the designs to OEMs.

More than a dozen companies plan to be shipping smartbooks by this fall using chips from Freescale, Texas Instruments and Qualcomm, according to Will Strauss, principal of market watcher Forward Concepts (Tempe, Ariz.). "We believe that smartbooks could be a 40-million unit annual market by 2013," Strauss wrote in a newsletter released Sunday (May 31).

And then today came a whole bunch of articles about NV that show they might just be the most aggressive and hands-on behind the scenes for ARM netbooks:
http://venturebeat.com/2009/05/31/nvidia-trumpets-success-of-its-tegra-cell-phone-processors/
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-10252757-64.html
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2347858,00.asp
http://www.netbookchoice.com/2009/06/01/computex-nvidia-tegra-netbooks-to-debut-with-windows-ce/

In the past two months, Rayfield said, his team visited 27 cell phone carriers. He said there is huge interest overseas in places such as South America, as well as domestically.

[...]

According to Nvidia officials, 14 major ODMs including Foxconn and Wistron, will show models using Tegra at Computex. These netbooks use a special version of Windows CE and a custom UI from Nvidia. [Arun: I think that's a misunderstanding, it has to be 14 ODMs working on it of which several will display models at Computex]

[...]

“There are two operating systems we support. Microsoft Windows CE and, as it becomes more interesting for large screens, (Google) Android,” he said. Rayfield expects the Android OS to appear in netbooks by the middle of next year. “Android has got a roar ahead of it but I think it’s three of four quarters from a large-screen device. And the market wants something interesting before that,” he said.

The first devices will not be shown off by some of the larger PC names, but by telecommunication carriers. “We’re bringing the carriers in. I’ve got 100 people showing up from carriers at Computex,” said Rayfield. The devices to be shown off at Computex will be those that “are about ready to release into production,” he said.

“The ODMs (original design manufacturers) will sell directly to the carriers. The OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) are getting cut out of the deal. The carriers want to brand it themselves. They would prefer not to show a large OEM (e.g., PC maker) name, they would prefer to show T-Mobile or Vodafone or whoever the carrier might be,” he said.

In terms of price, smaller devices with WVGA displays (800 x 480 resolution) will sell for $99, whilst your typical netbook will sell for $100 to $200. We look forward to more detail on these Tegra netbooks to come out of Computex in the next few days.

Qualcomm seems to follow a similar strategy (duh, they've got 3G integrated) and Inventec for example claims to be working on 4 designs:
http://www.pcworld.com/businesscent...ec_ready_to_ship_snapdragon_laptop_in_q4.html

Inventec, a Taiwanese company that makes laptops on behalf of several of the world's best-known PC brand names, is developing up to four Snapdragon laptop models for customers, said Mark Hirsch [cq], vice president for marketing at the company.

Meanwhile, Freescale seems to be focusing more (but not exclusively) on the discrete market. And I have no idea what TI is doing. I also think Rayfield's position wrt Android only being ready in about a year for netbooks (i.e. version 3.0) is spot on, FWIW. Ubuntu with OpenOffice isn't a bad platform for the prosumer space though.

The biggest disadvantage with WinCE is you don't have a good office suite. However with Skyfire at least you should be able to use Google Docs, which seems very attractive for the student market (certainly I'd use it). I'm pretty sure neither IE Mobile 6 nor Opera 9.5 support Google Docs though, but I don't know about 9.7... I'm pretty horrified at Android still not supporting flexible video acceleration in the 2.0 release (aka Donut) - oh well.

Anyway this is certainly heating up. Personally I'm mostly hoping the non-3G models are good and the UIs deliver more or less. I certainly would be very tempted by a 7" $99 netbook on WinCE with a 3D UI; at that price, it's practically disposable. Which is also why I think tieing it with a 2-year contract is insanity (12-18 months maybe...) but heh, I'll be the first to admit it's a very attractive distribution channel.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

So far, this appears to be the best chance of an alternative OS challenging MS. If Google plays it's hand well and executes well this could open things up for them with it eventually leading to desktop penetration.

Assuming they not only execute and deliver a robust OS but also bring along good 3rd party support of applications.

Personally though, I hope they fail as I'd hate to see the desktop application space become fragmented again as it was in the 80's and early 90's.

It's nice being able to just buy something and know it'll work.

Regards,
SB

 

[Mike11]

I really don't see Smartbooks becoming an alternative for the mass market this year or next year, too much hardware is not ready yet. And on the software side, we all know how much consumers loved Linux on their Netbook, so plain ARM Ubuntu won't do it, and Android won't be ready for another year.

Maybe in 2011 with Android 3.x, 32nm OMAP4s and a Pixel Qi display But by then they will have very strong competition with Medfield and Moblin...

 

[Wishmaster]

I hope that wm7 will be a worthy challenger for android on netbook/smartbook market.

 

[Arun]

It's nice being able to just buy something and know it'll work.

But you get that with Android in theory - it's called an App Store! Of course, I'm a bit skeptical that smartphone apps will be perfectly appropriate for netbooks (here's hoping they will at least be backwards compatible mostly), but if you could put them inside windows and have multiple visible at the same time that'd be attractive... No idea if that's the plan for 3.0 though.

I really don't see Smartbooks becoming an alternative for the mass market this year or next year, too much hardware is not ready yet. And on the software side, we all know how much consumers loved Linux on their Netbook, so plain ARM Ubuntu won't do it, and Android won't be ready for another year.

Hmm, I'm not so sure. On the HW side, Qualcomm is penalized because their chip integrates 3G and so it needs to go through certification again on 45nm etc. - NV/TI/Freescale don't have that problem on their 45/40nm generation. At least in NV's case, I'd be relatively confident you could have netbooks aimed at the 2010 holiday season. Maybe even back-to-school, but that depends on when their chip actually starts sampling and I haven't really kept up to date...

As for software, it'll evolve gradually, but Android 3.0 and WinCE 7 should be solid foundations so once again, I'd be hopeful for 2H10. If that fails horribly, I can't see what magical thing would make 2011/2012 much better except for more apps to run on it.

 

[Mike11]

Hmm, I'm not so sure. On the HW side, Qualcomm is penalized because their chip integrates 3G and so it needs to go through certification again on 45nm etc. - NV/TI/Freescale don't have that problem on their 45/40nm generation. At least in NV's case, I'd be relatively confident you could have netbooks aimed at the 2010 holiday season. Maybe even back-to-school, but that depends on when their chip actually starts sampling and I haven't really kept up to date...

As for software, it'll evolve gradually, but Android 3.0 and WinCE 7 should be solid foundations so once again, I'd be hopeful for 2H10. If that fails horribly, I can't see what magical thing would make 2011/2012 much better except for more apps to run on it.

Holiday season 2010 could be possible, but I still think H1/2011 is more likely. Of course some Smartbooks will be available much earlier, but I think they will be aimed at the tech savvy crowd.

On the software side, what about Maemo and Symbian? Especially Maemo could be ready for Smartbooks a lot earlier than the other OSs, since Nokia's Internet Tablets are already almost Smartbooks.

 

[rpg.314]

An out-of-order dual core ARM with some good graphics would be great for me, personally. And I'd rather install a gentoo on it.

 

[wco81]

Hmm, this whole movement towards netbooks and MIDs seem analogous to the success of the Wii.

Price and cute form factor leading to a backward step in technology. It's fine if people are getting these as complements to regular computers but it sounds like there's interest in developing countries in these things as replacements for desktops and regular laptops because of the lower prices.

Lets see, inferior ergonomics (scrunched keyboards), smaller, low-res displays and slower connections on mobile networks, not to mention slower processors.

 

[dZeus]

Hmm, this whole movement towards netbooks and MIDs seem analogous to the success of the Wii.

Price and cute form factor leading to a backward step in technology. It's fine if people are getting these as complements to regular computers but it sounds like there's interest in developing countries in these things as replacements for desktops and regular laptops because of the lower prices.

Lets see, inferior ergonomics (scrunched keyboards), smaller, low-res displays and slower connections on mobile networks, not to mention slower processors.

while netbooks/smartbooks often have inferior ergonomics, I disagree that they're a step backwards in technology. According to that logic, desktop replacement notebooks are better than ultra-light notebooks. Raw performance is not a good metric to judge technological progress on imo.

Most people use notebooks (or even computers in general) only to use office apps, browse the web, IM, email and maybe view videos/films.
With a dedicated DSP for decoding the most used codecs (H264, MPEG4 ASP, mpeg2), all of these tasks can most likely very easily be handled by an oooe dual core ARM vortex + a good video/3d processor.

So, imo, energy efficiency and sufficient performance for everyday tasks is a much better metric for measury technological progress.

I'd love to see a notebook with 6-cell battery, 12" IPS screen, dual/quad-core ARM Vortex 9 and a good video processor running android.

Why android? I think Google is the only company around right now that has a chance of creating a linux environment with set standards for the masses. While the fragmentation in the linux market is beneficial in some ways, it hurts adoption for anything other than specifically-tailored software for niche devices.

 

[Arun]

List of NVIDIA Tegra netbooks, straight from the source: http://www.nvidia.com/object/tegra_odm_devices.html
Updated the first post along with the Mobinnova info, if anyone finds more stuff about other devices let me know.

I love the comments at engadget - some of those are sane, but others prove nothing but the fact they didn't even bother opening the video. Oops? IMO, NV probably should have claimed that it's a "custom 3D operating system based on Windows CE" rather than say "it's Windows CE with a custom UI". I'm also curious about their emphasis on Flash apps (too bad real 3D games aren't really possible there), and hopefully they'll point out Firefox mobile supports Google Docs which I think is a key selling point for the student market. So, what do you guys think?

 

[Entropy]

Hmm, this whole movement towards netbooks and MIDs seem analogous to the success of the Wii.

Price and cute form factor leading to a backward step in technology. It's fine if people are getting these as complements to regular computers but it sounds like there's interest in developing countries in these things as replacements for desktops and regular laptops because of the lower prices.

Lets see, inferior ergonomics (scrunched keyboards), smaller, low-res displays and slower connections on mobile networks, not to mention slower processors.

Energy efficiency is "a backward step in technology"?

And how can you say that "It's fine if people are getting these as complements to regular computers"? Maybe these machines suit their customers needs quite well. I'm a computational scientist, and I've done much of my private computing on Palm Pilots for almost a decade now. Attach a wireless keyboard and type away.

The days of the stationary computers are slowly drawing to a close - slowly, because they have (had) some cost advantages and above all are practical for many businesses and administrations from a service and maintenance standpoint. Even so, the trend of portable computers replacing desktops rather than complementing them has been taking place for a decade or so, and has been a much stronger trend among consumers than anywhere else. Nobody should be surprised that netbooks are successful, and most people understand that the segment will grow and eat into the traditional Wintel user base. Why do you think Intel has been desperate to promote their Atom processors even without a decent chipset? Why has Microsoft developed a new lighter version of it's OS and is doing its damndest on all fronts to both make it attractive and unattractive at the same time? Both companies are pulling every last string they can find to try to stop ARM/linux netbooks because they know that these will ultimately be successful and make it impossible to keep their average selling prices up. And if this threat hadn't existed for their partners to leverage, the two giants would have been much harsher to deal with and the computing model that allows them to milk a strong and steady stream of cash from the world would have been much harder to soften up. Ultimately, while the Wintel hegemony has had advantages, it has also stifled innovation and growth - compare the development of cell phones to Windows PCs over the last decade.

Portables eat desktops, netbooks eat portables, phones eat netbooks (and everything else) - there you have the food chain of the next few years. And it makes perfect sense.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I wouldn't say notebooks/netbooks eventually replacing desktops is set in stone.

I know quite a few people both in business and personally that have switched back to desktops after going notebook only the past few years.

Mostly what they found out is that they didn't need the portability. Also, the ability to use a large monitor + desktop at lower cost than notebook + large monitor + docking station was a win win situation for them.

While some have kept their notebooks, they have gone from notebook only to notebook + desktop now. With the notebook relegated to work/vacation use only. And as said previously some have stopped using notebooks entirely.

It's been interesting watching the dynamics of computing over the past 30 years...

If anything, affordable netbook's main draw is most likely the ability to more easily afford a dedicated desktop machine and a portable computing device without breaking the bank. Or having to choose to go solely portable or solely desktop.

Regards,
SB

 

[wco81]

Well they consume less energy but then, they have slower processors and smaller screens.

It sounds like this interest in the developing world is more driven by price than any green aspirations. And in the G8 markets, where they might be more green consciousness, sales also seem to be driven by price, along with some desire for greater mobility. It still seems likely that most netbook customers in these markets own or have access to other computers.

When the web took off in the '90s, people talked about net computers and thin clients, even talked about "network is the computer" like they're kind of talking about the cloud now.

Some companies came out with dedicated appliances which only did email and a few other functions for the tech averse customers -- things to get for your grandma.

Netbooks and MIDs are more full-featured than those appliances, which never caught on. But you're getting a fraction of the performance and experience (compared to desktops and laptops with bigger screens and full-sized keyboards) at a fraction of the price.

Again, analogies to what Wii has done in consoles seem to apply. Wildly successful yet but if the other vendors decided to dedicate more of the BOM costs to something other than CPU/GPU, is this paradigm shift necessarily progress?

If the biggest auto markets adopted smart and even smaller cars, which are greener but have more limited range and other limitations relative to the vehicles they replace, would that be progress? Maybe from an environmental POV but it is a diminishment in the experience, compared to the bigger, higher-performance cars which have been replaced.

 

[Arun]

Well given what's happening for perf/area vs. perf/watt when it comes to process technology, I think eventually even ARM netbooks will start having higher TDPs - essentially only limited by the fact they don't want to have a heatsink. But average and idle power, on the other hand, should still drop even lower. Just look at Qualcomm's QSD8672: dual-core dual-issue 1.5GHz processors for netbooks. On 28nm (->2012 netbooks?), I wouldn't be surprised if we could have a quad-core 2GHz Cortex-A9. That's quite something...

BTW, photos of the Tegra netbooks 'in the flesh' (no pun originally intended): http://www.tweaktown.com/news/12359/nvidia_girls_show_off_early_tegra_based_hd_mids/

 

[Albuquerque]

I know I'm just restating what was already mentioned, but I feel the need to do it anyway...

Price and cute form factor leading to a backward step in technology. It's fine if people are getting these as complements to regular computers but it sounds like there's interest in developing countries in these things as replacements for desktops and regular laptops because of the lower prices.

Lower prices is surely part of it; think of it as essentially "commoditizing" a computer. When my first Apple ][e cost $5k, that was a significant barrier to entry for nearly everyone. When my first 386SX16 rig cost $3k about eight to ten years later, that was far better, but still a notable barrier to entry for most people. Today, with a netbook costing as little as $200, computing resources can now be made available "en masse".

Lets see, inferior ergonomics (scrunched keyboards)

The HP 2140 and Dell Mini 9 and Dell Mini 10 all have a keyboard that is 92% of the size of a standard form factor. If a reduction of 8% is "scrunched", then perhaps we have some differences in our perception. I found typing on both models to be very comfortable.

smaller, low-res displays

Yes, they're smaller, which means they need to be lesser resolution to make them readable. Nevertheless, I would rate both the HP and Dell mini's screen readability as "excellent" with the uniform LED backlight and excellent angle. Would I like more resolution? Yeah, but then you start running into "tiny text" issues. For web surfing, emailing, document writing, and YouTube videos, the 1024x600 platform is entirely suitable.

and slower connections on mobile networks

If you're talking about 3G networks, then any laptop can have this same issue. Quite frankly, I find 3G perfectly acceptable for viewing this forum, watching YouTube, reading the news, pulling email, sending basic attachments, et al. Other than the limitations of the cellular network (that are NOT related to Netbooks specifically), most if not all Netbooks come with the same connectivity options as their bigger Laptop brothers -- wireless A/B/G/N and wired 10/100/1000 networking.

not to mention slower processors.

Sure, it's not my Q9450 rig, hell it's not even the same as the T2300 (non-E) on my Dell Inspiron. But what are you going to do on a netbook that requires a ridiculous amount of horsepower? As a demo to some other "naysayers" in a recent presentation I did, I handed around the HP 2140 playing back the Transformers quicktime trailer in H.264 480P compression -- no issues, and CPU utilization was about ~60%. This is probably about the hardest that machine should ever expect to have to work, and it was the Atom N270 behind it with an Intel i950 IGP (ie, the video chipset wasn't doing much to help)

I think people give way too much shit to netbooks as "slow" or "crap" or simply write them off as "cheap". The reason they are selling is because there's a market for small, lesser-powered, energy efficient, highly mobile computing that does all the work a normal non-computer-dorky person would need to do.

It's the same reason why Intel is the biggest seller of graphics chips -- not because they're the fastest, or most fully featured, or even the most compatible. But they get the job DONE for 90% of the computing populace at an insignificant price.

 

[Entropy]

I think people give way too much shit to netbooks as "slow" or "crap" or simply write them off as "cheap". The reason they are selling is because there's a market for small, lesser-powered, energy efficient, highly mobile computing that does all the work a normal non-computer-dorky person would need to do.

This is true.
The interesting follow-up question everyone should ask themselves is why people like Ottelini, Ballmer, and other industry top dogs have felt compelled to attack netbooks.

(Ironically, even though ASPs as well as fear of the unknown in the industry are the obvious answer, I'm not sure it stops there. For someone like Otellini, if you have spent a major part of your professional life supplying ever more sophisticated and powerful processors, having the world simply loose interest has to be felt at an emotional level - you have managed to progress yourself into irrelevance in some sense. The rise of netbooks, the dismal uptake of the Nehalems, the overall trends all send the same message. And I think this message, the public saying "performance specs are not cool, I'm just not interested anymore" is the reason why Albuquerque finds many computer interested people reacting against netbooks. Just as on these fora many tech interested react against the Wii - its success implies that their worldview isn't as significant as they had assumed, which in turn threatens their self-esteem.)

Incidentally, I own two or three stationary computers myself. When I go portable, I go really portable, but that doesn't stop either stationary or handheld computers from being loosers in the evolution of computing. I'm sure there will be a lot of stationary computers in the future as well - I just believe that almost all used in businesses and administrations will eventually look like the Eee Box.

 

[Mike11]

Yes, they're smaller, which means they need to be lesser resolution to make them readable. Nevertheless, I would rate both the HP and Dell mini's screen readability as "excellent" with the uniform LED backlight and excellent angle. Would I like more resolution? Yeah, but then you start running into "tiny text" issues. For web surfing, emailing, document writing, and YouTube videos, the 1024x600 platform is entirely suitable.

That's just a shortcoming of the OS (lack of resolution independent GUI).

What's bugging me: Why is Nvidia calling Netbooks with ARM CPUs "MIDs"???

 

[wco81]

Many people pick them up for travel or think they're going to be spending more time on the road, whiling away the hours at a cafe with Wifi.

But in most of these cases, it's a complementary device to other computers they own or have access to, with which they will manage their photos and music, where more processing power, storage and larger displays make a lot more sense.

 

[Mike11]

But in most of these cases, it's a complementary device to other computers they own or have access to, with which they will manage their photos and music, where more processing power, storage and larger displays make a lot more sense.

Yeah, that's the theory, that's how it should be. But in reality a lot of people pick up Netbooks INSTEAD of a new "real" PC/Notebook.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Yeah, that's the theory, that's how it should be. But in reality a lot of people pick up Netbooks INSTEAD of a new "real" PC/Notebook.

Hard to tell on that. So far experience in my area is that they are replacing notebooks, but...

1. They keep their existing desktop for heavy use.
2. Allows them to pickup a Desktop + netbook for the price of a comparable notebook if they didn't have a desktop.

I haven't seen very many people that have gone netbook only. Probably a demographic I don't have much contact with.

I also haven't seen many cases where instead of Desktop + Netbook they go with Notebook (like a desktop replacement notebook) + Netbook.

Although I have seen some interesting cases where they've gone with server + multiple netbooks. Replacing most desktops and notebooks in the home.

Regards,
SB