Chevy Volt drivers average 800 miles between fill-ups.

[RudeCurve]

If you buy an EV before you were originally planning to get rid of the petrol car, you've made an outlay you wouldn't necessarily have made otherwise.

Also, is it possible to get the same model / quality of car for the same price for both petrol / electric versions? Everything I've read suggests that you end up paying more for a car just because it is electric - you end up paying $30k for an electric version of a $15k car, in which case if you spend $1.5k a year on fuel, the car has to last for 10 years to make your money back before you account for electricity costs. And the debate wouldn't be about buying a "cheaper" petrol car, it is about buying electric or petrol versions of the same car.

The only reason why I wouldn't get the EV is due to the fact it's ugly. If somebody made one that looked sporty like the Tesla for example I wouldn't mind buying one over a petrol car if I were in the market for a new car. There is no law that says EVs or hybrids have to look like $15K cars. Take the Camry hybrid for example which looks exactly like a petrol Camry.

Petrol cars also need regular maintenance that add up over time. I own a petrol Camry that I bought new that needs regular maintenance. Over a span of 100K miles you'd be looking at maybe $3K in maintenance costs. 3000 mile oil changes alone will add up to around $1000 over 100K miles., then you have brakes which need to be replaced every 50K miles, then complete fluids flush every 50K miles, new timing belt every 60K miles, new air filter every 7K miles, plugs etc.

 

[cjo]

The only reason why I wouldn't get the EV is due to the fact it's ugly. If somebody made one that looked sporty like the Tesla for example I wouldn't mind buying one over a petrol car if I were in the market for a new car. There is no law that says EVs or hybrids have to look like $15K cars. Take the Camry hybrid for example which looks exactly like a petrol Camry.

Where did how the cars look come in to it?

Petrol cars also need regular maintenance that add up over time. I own a petrol Camry that I bought new that needs regular maintenance. Over a span of 100K miles you'd be looking at maybe $3K in maintenance costs. 3000 mile oil changes alone will add up to around $1000 over 100K miles., then you have brakes which need to be replaced every 50K miles, then complete fluids flush every 50K miles, new timing belt every 60K miles, new air filter every 7K miles, plugs etc.

EV cars are totally maintenance free? Do they not have brakes? At 10k miles per year, the battery will still be at full capacity after 10 years? How much will it cost to get back to full capacity?

 

[JohnH]

The only reason why I wouldn't get the EV is due to the fact it's ugly. If somebody made one that looked sporty like the Tesla for example I wouldn't mind buying one over a petrol car if I were in the market for a new car. There is no law that says EVs or hybrids have to look like $15K cars. Take the Camry hybrid for example which looks exactly like a petrol Camry.
.

Ha. I can agree with that.

 

[RudeCurve]

Where did how the cars look come in to it?

How it looks falls into the same category as $15K petrol car vs $30K petrol car which you brought up. A $30K Camry hybrid looks like a $30K petrol Camry not a $15K petrol Corolla.

EV cars are totally maintenance free? Do they not have brakes? At 10k miles per year, the battery will still be at full capacity after 10 years? How much will it cost to get back to full capacity?

I think you're grasping at straws now. Compared to petrol cars they're virtually maintenance free. They don't use up brakes as much as petrol cars since they're regenrative....so maybe you'll have to change the brakes every 100K miles big deal.

The batteries last beyond 10 years even if it loses capacity over time. This is all irrelevent anyway if the car could still get me from point A to point B on a daily basis with a single overnight charge. Heck even if the battery loses 50% capacity over 20 years I'd still be able to drive it I just won't be able to drive it as far per single charge but again if it's still able to get me from A to B it's irrelevent....

I drive 32 miles a day, a new EV gives me more than twice that range per single charge so in 20 years/200K miles and after 50% decrease in battery capacity I'd still be able to drive it daily.....this has zero affect on electricity costs too. Now compare that to a petrol car after 20 years and 200K miles later you'd be looking at more than $6K in maintenance costs not to mention you'd probably have to rebuild the engine to continue to drive it.

 

[JohnH]

Anyway, I'd still like to see a real evaluation the the full life cycle environmental costs of equivalent petrol and electric/hybrid vehicles.

 

[Sxotty]

I spend about £1500 a year on fuel, average mileage (~10K a year) in a moderately high performance car at fuel prices that are currently ~3x those in the US. If I was drive an electric vehcle that cost £15000 and runs on FREE electricity it would still take me 10 years to cover the cost of the new vehcle.

No doubt you will argue that people in the US tend to do much higher mileage, but I'd suggest that that in itself is an issue that the US needs to address i.e. fix the car based culture.

*Rant mode on*
And, again, all this ignores the huge environmental costs associated with producing and then disposing of all these batteries that are suddenly being used to power cars. But hey all that polution and environmental damage will probably be happening in another (likely 3rd world) country so what's to worry about hey, the American dream of excess can continue to live on. Sigh.
*Rant mode off*

You failed to answer my questions. For example I said how far a day, not how far a year. The yearly number means nothing when talking about a PHEV which is the subject of the thread. If you leave your car parked except when you drive long distances 300 miles or something then you results would be completely different even if your yearly travel was the same. There is no reason whatsoever I would argue people in the US travel farther in a year, what matters is daily travel. While people in the US do travel farther annually, if you were reporting in mile then it isn't nearly as much as you think. Your comparison is a complete fallacy which is already pointed out. The comparison is between a new petrol/diesel and a phev/ev.

You are completely wrong about the batteries. Modern lithium batteries are not nearly as damaging as you seem to believe. In fact they can be disposed of in a regular landfill. There is no need for any special treatment. They are so much better than past batteries such as Pb, NiCad, and even NiMH that is isn't funny. They are also far far better when being produced.


I am not trying to be rude I just hate when people operate under false impressions. Better decisions are made when people know the facts. If you actually had provided the info in question it is very likely that a regular petrol car would still be best. The initial purchase price will be far less for a comparable car. With a discount rate for future cash flows for fuel it is hard to make up the difference even with relatively high fuel prices. Though in the UK you could probably do it. In the US even at $4/gal it is tough for the current breed of PHEV. Namely a $40k vehicle. Probably a 15k premium. In the future supposedly the cost will come down. Now the tax credits make it cheaper than that, but while relevant to the consumer in the short term eventually the tax credits will end.


If you want to see the life cycle cost then look it up John. Such research has been done .


@ cjo

Have you heard of regen brakes? I know someone with an EV from the late 90s lots of driving and not a single new brake pad. In an EV you don't wear the brakes much at all. Yes you still have other things that can wear out, but brakes are pretty low on the list (not to mention they are cheap to repair). I would be more worried about power split devices (transmission) and batteries.

 

[JohnH]

How it looks falls into the same category as $15K petrol car vs $30K petrol car which you brought up. A $30K Camry hybrid looks like a $30K petrol Camry not a $15K petrol Corolla.




I think you're grasping at straws now. Compared to petrol cars they're virtually maintenance free. They don't use up brakes as much as petrol cars since they're regenrative.

But you're breaking a lot more weight due to all those batteries you're carrying, the heavier weight also means your titres will wear out more quickely. Maintainance costs on petrol cars aren't huge realtive to the cost of fuel these days, so I'd suggest it's you who's clutching at straws

The batteries last beyond 10 years even if it loses capacity over time. This is all irrelevent anyway if the car could still get me from point A to point B on a daily basis with a single overnight charge. Heck even if the battery loses 50% capacity over 20 years I'd still be able to drive it I just won't be able to drive it as far per single charge but again if it's still able to get me from A to B it's irrelevent.

You're buying a car that already has limited range, you're saying that range dropping by say 20% in 5 years would be acceptable? Certainly wouldn't do much for the second hand value of the car!

 

[RudeCurve]

But you're breaking a lot more weight due to all those batteries you're carrying, the heavier weight also means your titres will wear out more quickely. Maintainance costs on petrol cars aren't huge realtive to the cost of fuel these days, so I'd suggest it's you who's clutching at straws

I know how much maintenance costs can be when I bring my petrol car to the dealership for all maintenance. I added a comparison of maintenance costs over 20 years/200K miles between EVs and petrol cars in the above posts for your enjoyment. I've yet to see any hybrids needing new brake pads sooner than petrol cars, quite the opposite.

You're buying a car that already has limited range, you're saying that range dropping by say 20% in 5 years would be acceptable? Certainly wouldn't do much for the second hand value of the car!

Maximum range is only important if single charge range cannot be met for an individual's needs. I only drive 32 miles a day why would I care if my range decreases by 20% over 10 years? The single charge ranges is still well over 32 miles after 10 years and maybe even 20 years...

Read the additonal information I've posted above for my current daily driven miles.

As far as resale value, in 20 years batteries will be MUCH cheaper so you could buy a 20 year old used EV and get it up to 99% original factory range for only the cost of a new battery. Good luck buying a 20 year old 200K petrol car that can still be driven without being a money pit...

 

[JohnH]

You failed to answer my questions. For example I said how far a day, not how far a year. The yearly number means nothing when talking about a PHEV which is the subject of the thread. If you leave your car parked except when you drive long distances 300 miles or something then you results would be completely different even if your yearly travel was the same. There is no reason whatsoever I would argue people in the US travel farther in a year, what matters is daily travel. While people in the US do travel farther annually, if you were reporting in mile then it isn't nearly as much as you think. Your comparison is a complete fallacy which is already pointed out. The comparison is between a new petrol/diesel and a phev/ev.

Your questionn and repsonse don't appear to be revelent to the question or relative running cost/cost recovery over the lifetime of the vehical as I'd placed electricity at zero cost, it isn't a falacy it's simple unbiased thinking.

You are completely wrong about the batteries. Modern lithium batteries are not nearly as damaging as you seem to believe. In fact they can be disposed of in a regular landfill. There is no need for any special treatment. They are so much better than past batteries such as Pb, NiCad, and even NiMH that is isn't funny. They are also far far better when being produced.

They're still pretty bad, I wouldn't want my house to be sitting on top of a landfill full of old Lithium based batteries, plus land fillign them just means consuming lithium at a faster rate, but hey what's wrong with a bit more strip mining.

I am not trying to be rude I just hate when people operate under false impressions. Better decisions are made when people know the facts. If you actually had provided the info in question it is very likely that a regular petrol car would still be best. The initial purchase price will be far less for a comparable car. With a discount rate for future cash flows for fuel it is hard to make up the difference even with relatively high fuel prices. Though in the UK you could probably do it. In the US even at $4/gal it is tough for the current breed of PHEV. Namely a $40k vehicle. Probably a 15k premium. In the future supposedly the cost will come down. Now the tax credits make it cheaper than that, but while relevant to the consumer in the short term eventually the tax credits will end.

Who's operating under a false impression? I didn't need to include the information in my question as the running costs of a petrol car are known to anyone who happens to run one i.e. it's common knowledge. Get the premium down to 4-5K then I'd agree that you're probably in the realms where the additioonal upfront cost starts to makes sense to most people.

If you want to see the life cycle cost then look it up John. Such research has been done .

Hey you're the pro battery guy and I'm feeeeeling lazy Besides the last research I looked up was not conclusive either way, although that was a number of years ago!

By the way, to be clear, I'm not pro-petroleum, I'm just not convinced on the effectiveness and sustainability of anything based on current battery technology.

John.

 

[RudeCurve]

Lithium ion batteries are recyclable...so no you won't be sitting on top of a mountain of batteries...

 

[JohnH]

I know how much maintenance costs can be when I bring my petrol car to the dealership for all maintenance. I added a comparison of maintenance costs over 20 years/200K miles between EVs and petrol cars in the above posts for your enjoyment. I've yet to see any hybrids needing new brake pads sooner than petrol cars, quite the opposite.



Maximum range is only important if single charge range cannot be met for an individual's needs.

Read the additonal information I've posted above for my current daily driven miles.

As far as resale value, in 20 years batteries will be MUCH cheaper so you could buy a 20 year old used EV and get it up to 99% original factory range for only the cost of a new battery. Good luck buying a 20 year old 200K petrol car that can still be driven without being a money pit...

Try driving a deisal, they've been known to be relatively trouble free for 200K+miles. Suspension and drive train wear etc still happens on an EV, in fact it's likely to be greater due to heavier weight. I'm pretty certain that a 20 year old 200K+ EV isn't going to be without significant issues either i.e. they still have moving parts that can and will wear out.

Your use analysis is interresting in that you'd seem to be happy to have a car that has no headroom in the case of an emrgency i.e. being stuck somewhere waiting for a charge when you're in a hurry.

 

[RudeCurve]

Try driving a deisal, they've been known to be relatively trouble free for 200K+miles.

Yeah but they're still dependent on high fuel prices.

Suspension and drive train wear etc still happens on an EV, in fact it's likely to be greater due to heavier weight. I'm pretty certain that a 20 year old 200K+ EV isn't going to be without significant issues either i.e. they still have moving parts that can and will wear out.

Shock durablility has more to do with road conditions than car weight. A light car uses shocks and springs designed for a light car. A heavy car uses shocks and springs designed for a heavy car. The struts on a petrol Camry are likely the same used on a hybrid Camry just valved differently and uses different spring rates. Stiffer shocks/springs don't cost more than softer shocks/springs. Under normal driving conditions the stock shocks on my 2400lbs sportscar needs to be replaced every 60K miles while the struts on my 3000lbs Camry doesn't need replacement until 120K miles. BTW the Camry hybrid only weighs 360lbs more than the petrol variant while having more hp and torque.

As for the drivetrain there's not much in a EV like the Nissan Leaf. It's a single brushless direct drive motor. There's no mutiple gear transmission and the electric motor can easily last beyond 200K miles without maintenance let alone a replacement.

Your use analysis is interresting in that you'd seem to be happy to have a car that has no headroom in the case of an emrgency i.e. being stuck somewhere waiting for a charge when you're in a hurry.

When was the last time I ran out of gas on the highway? Never...and that's considering I don't fill the tank unless there's less than a quarter of a tank left.

 

[Sxotty]

Your questionn and repsonse don't appear to be revelent to the question or relative running cost/cost recovery over the lifetime of the vehical as I'd placed electricity at zero cost, it isn't a falacy it's simple unbiased thinking.

John you asked this

"Ok, so ignoring the environmental cost of building a new hybrid car, how many years would it take to recooperate the cost of a new car?"

The answer to that question depends on daily driving habits not annual distance. That question specified a hybrid, not an EV. If you want to ask about EVs instead that is fine, but you have to be more specific . How much gas you displace with electricity (free in your example) depends on how far you drive each day.

They're still pretty bad, I wouldn't want my house to be sitting on top of a landfill full of old Lithium based batteries, plus land fillign them just means consuming lithium at a faster rate, but hey what's wrong with a bit more strip mining.

... Get the premium down to 4-5K then I'd agree that you're probably in the realms where the additioonal upfront cost starts to makes sense to most people.


Hey you're the pro battery guy and I'm feeeeeling lazy Besides the last research I looked up was not conclusive either way, although that was a number of years ago!

LCA research shows that a <=PHEV 40 is better than a regular car. However a PHEV 40 is likely worse than a regular hybrid with a small battery. Basically recovering wasted brake energy is a big deal.

By the way, to be clear, I'm not pro-petroleum, I'm just not convinced on the effectiveness and sustainability of anything based on current battery technology.

John.

It is way more sustainable than the current alternative. And you can recycle lithium, the problem is some of the most benign batteries as so cheap in terms of raw materials that it is not worth it to recycle them. When I was talking to battery recyclers they were bemoaning this and saying we need something besides dirt in the batteries if they want us to recycle them. Manganese, iron, lithium are all benign and dirt cheap. Lots of the expense is in the purity, the electrolyte, separators and so forth. The problem is you don't get that stuff back in recycling usually. Just the lithium and dirt.

 

[cjo]

When was the last time I ran out of gas on the highway? Never...and that's considering I don't fill the tank unless there's less than a quarter of a tank left.

The cost (in terms of time) of filling up a petrol car is a matter of minutes. You can go from running on fumes to a full tank in under 5 minutes, including the time it takes to pay.

Now, imagine you have an EV. Given that you don't bother filling the petrol tank until it is mostly empty, it isn't an unreasonable assumption that you won't always care about having your EV topped up either. Imagine your EV is 10 years old, so the Li-ion battery has lost 20% (which is generous, as Li-ion lose about 4% charge per year) of its capacity, so the initial 160 mile range is now down to 128 miles.

Lets say, friday afternoon, most of the battery power already used up, you've got 20 or 30 miles left. Then you get a phone call saying "I need you to pick something up 70 miles from where you are now because <insert plausible reason given your family/friends/work requirements>". So, you've got a 140 mile round trip to do, with 30 miles left on your battery. At some point you will have to recharge your battery from almost "empty" to "full" With current technology you'll have a 45 minute wait IF you can find a 3-phase 480V power supply - longer with just a normal wall socket.

Compared to a petrol car, where you spend 5 minutes filling up with petrol, then off you go!

EVs will be a good idea when the technology is advanced enough to give (close to) parity with petrol cars range and refill times. Until then, I probably wouldn't rely on one.

 

[Sxotty]

Imagine your EV is 10 years old, so the Li-ion battery has lost 20% (which is generous, as Li-ion lose about 4% charge per year) of its capacity, so the initial 160 mile range is now down to 128 miles.

What evidence do you have for that I am curious? I know in my experience this isn't necessarily true.

Otherwise I don't disagree with the point you are raising which is why I like PHEVs not EVs.

 

[RudeCurve]

Now, imagine you have an EV. Given that you don't bother filling the petrol tank until it is mostly empty, it isn't an unreasonable assumption that you won't always care about having your EV topped up either. Imagine your EV is 10 years old, so the Li-ion battery has lost 20% (which is generous, as Li-ion lose about 4% charge per year) of its capacity, so the initial 160 mile range is now down to 128 miles.

4% per year is total BS even if you fast charge. Worst case for LiMn is 30% loss in capacity after 10 years when strictly using only the 440V fast charging option. If you only charge using the 220V then it's closer to 20% after 10 years.

Lets say, friday afternoon, most of the battery power already used up, you've got 20 or 30 miles left.

Then you get a phone call saying "I need you to pick something up 70 miles from where you are now because <insert plausible reason given your family/friends/work requirements>". So, you've got a 140 mile round trip to do, with 30 miles left on your battery. At some point you will have to recharge your battery from almost "empty" to "full" With current technology you'll have a 45 minute wait IF you can find a 3-phase 480V power supply - longer with just a normal wall socket.

Compared to a petrol car, where you spend 5 minutes filling up with petrol, then off you go!

EVs will be a good idea when the technology is advanced enough to give (close to) parity with petrol cars range and refill times. Until then, I probably wouldn't rely on one.

This would be impossible because 1) I would charge the EV everyday overnight. I don't fill up a petrol car everyday because I know I could just stop at a gas station if I run out of gas. Second reason why this would be impossible is due to the fact I don't know anyone who lives 70 miles away. All of my relatives who lives near me are less then 45 miles away.

BTW right now I own two petrol cars. If I were to buy a pure EV I would sell one of my petrol cars..that means I'd drive the EV to from work and the petrol car would be used for long distance trips. If for some reason I could only have one car then I'd go for a hybrid.

 

[Mintmaster]

I spend about £1500 a year on fuel, average mileage (~10K a year) in a moderately high performance car at fuel prices that are currently ~3x those in the US. If I was drive an electric vehcle that cost £15000 and runs on FREE electricity it would still take me 10 years to cover the cost of the new vehcle.

I'm calling bullshit. That would mean $2400 worth of gas per year, and 3x the price would mean the gas would cost $800 in the US. At $4.50/gallon, your car would have to do 56MPG for all your numbers to add up.

Moreover, since when does a PHEV add £15000 ($25k) to the cost of a car? It's basically a regular hybrid plus a bigger battery. That'll be a $15k premium at the most, and it'll keep dropping.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I'm calling bullshit. That would mean $2400 worth of gas per year, and 3x the price would mean the gas would cost $800 in the US. At $4.50/gallon, your car would have to do 56MPG for all your numbers to add up.

Too many variables already, so things get messy.

I get 1500£/1.37£/litre = 1094 Litres per year.

10000miles = 16000km

1094L/160 = 6.85l/100km

6.85L = 1.805 gallons

100km/ 62.1 Miles

62.1 Miles/1.805 gallons

= 34.4 mpg.

 

[Simon F]

I spend about £1500 a year on fuel, average mileage (~10K a year) in a moderately high performance car at fuel prices that are currently ~3x those in the US.

I'm calling bullshit. That would mean $2400 worth of gas per year, and 3x the price would mean the gas would cost $800 in the US. At $4.50/gallon, your car would have to do 56MPG for all your numbers to add up.

If I'm not mistaken, John has a (quite nice) diesel and in the UK diesel is about £1.40 per litre while in the US it appears to be (assuming the strange US gallon measure) £0.66 per litre, so in the UK it is a little over 2x the price.

FWIW I have a diesel which has probably more frontal area/drag than John's and we average just under 40mpg with what are generally short journeys ( the average speed (the last time I looked) was about 20MPH. (Curse these mixed metric and cruddy imperial measures))

 

[cjo]

What evidence do you have for that I am curious? I know in my experience this isn't necessarily true.

Otherwise I don't disagree with the point you are raising which is why I like PHEVs not EVs.

Based on figures from http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/how_to_store_batteries

Probably not that authoritive, but I thought it was probably enough to make a point.