As long as hardware doesnt do adaptive shadowmaps (and I dont see it doing them in the next generation) I dont see shadow volumes dieing out, even if you use something like Light Space Perspective Shadow Maps you are going to run into aliasing or waste a lot of samples. Although shadow silhouette maps seem like a nice approach to lessen the problem.
As far as soft shadows are concerned I think for the next gen penumbra wedges makes sense, they use the same approach as volumetric fogging/lighting through multiple rendering targets which will probably be used in next gen engines anyway (at least mr. Sweeney used that effect as one of his reasons for praising DX9, so I assume he will end up using it). This works with shadowvolumes though.
For shadowmaps the smoothie approach looks nice and efficient, but is patented (by crytek, although the guy who "created" smoothies only learned of the patent after he finished his reinvention ... showing once again how silly it is to pretend that a patent which only gets published years after application fosters innovation).
As far as soft shadows are concerned I think for the next gen penumbra wedges makes sense, they use the same approach as volumetric fogging/lighting through multiple rendering targets which will probably be used in next gen engines anyway (at least mr. Sweeney used that effect as one of his reasons for praising DX9, so I assume he will end up using it). This works with shadowvolumes though.
For shadowmaps the smoothie approach looks nice and efficient, but is patented (by crytek, although the guy who "created" smoothies only learned of the patent after he finished his reinvention ... showing once again how silly it is to pretend that a patent which only gets published years after application fosters innovation).