Can the Revolution be as successful as the DS?

[Nicked]

Really? I could've sworn I said that the PSP was primarily supported by 3rd party sales, whereas Nintendo isn't nearly as reliant upon them. But due to the DS's expanding popularity fueled by its software, (demand exceeds availability in jpn)

It should be noted at this point it is because of a lack of shipment, the PSP is having no problem doubling the DS sales during this period. It is not as if Nintendos manufacturing capacity is lower than DS demand, unlike say the X360 situation in the west.

its lower developer monetary R&D associated costs, (dev kit, manpower & media inclusive)[/i] = a win for 3rd parties on the DS because of the higher profit margin allowed upon less actual software sales. Its sw profit potential grows exponentially if your title sells beyond or reaches let's say, 100k. Though profitiability can be reached upon even less.

Higher game prices and considerably higher sales would almost certainly overweigh devkit (one off) and development costs.

How does higher dev costs equate to a win for gamers exactly?

Higher quality software. I don't know about you, but I feel many of the DS's celebrated titles could be done near-perfectly on the GBA minus very poor implementation of the stylus. Not all, but alot.

This directly correlates to the higher game prices that they must charge the consumer, & high sales are a necessity to see a profit over investment[ which is far from guaranteed on either platform. But the financial risk on the DS is significantly reduced due to the factors listed above.

I doubt anyone who shells out $250 on a handheld is put-off by a rise of $10 in game costs, especially because of the general high production values.

The GBA was never sold out in any region, (with Nintendo issuing a formal apology for shortages)] & certainly didn't produce so quickly close to 10 seperate

No, but Nintendo never understocked the GBA in Japan. Funny how that works.

Some sources have Warioware, SM64, & MKDS already at over a million sold. When Nintendo can ramp up DS production again in late Jan./early Feb. & the months to follow, its all but guaranteed. I don't have to be a DS, nor must I be a Nintendo fan to recognize that this is phenomenal, & I said more eastern developers are sure to be taking notice & pledge even further support. You do realize that the japanese market was shrinking, with less than 5 million sellers[ in all of '04 on the PS2's dominant platform.

I'm shocked that good games are selling well. A tie ratio just of 2.5 is only impressive relative to poor PSP software performance.
I'm sure that cannabalising GBA software sales (failing to double PSP software sales, for all the credit you're giving the DS), is representative that Nintendo halted a shrinking Japanese market.

"Floundering?" You're referring to the period before April when DS sales had dropped as low as 20k correct?

Correct.

"the agreements & announcements with Square-Enix were reached before this took place regardless.

My point exactly.

Are December's hw numbers any indication of the DS selling like crap? In addition to the fact that Nintendo has confirmed that 13 million DSes sold ww vs. the 9 million for the PSP this year, will that too scare away the publishers I wonder?

1) I'd like a source on that 9M number, because frankly, I think its a Nintendo fan dream figure.
2) The majority of the discrepancy is in Japan, where third-party titles are (few exceptions, of course) not setting the charts ablaze.
3) No, the indication that the DS is selling like crap is the fact that DS sold ~2.5M in NA in 2005, aka very poorly.

This is not a DS vs. PSP thread, just looking at the raw data & putting the economics of game development into perspective which must be taken into account.

Indeed.

The PSP is indeed a technical marvel, with a multitude of built in functionality. (which may have hurt it in hindsight) But software is what ultimately moves systems, MKDS outselling GTA PSP? 4 million Nintendogs sold ww & rising? I never would've believed it initially.

So we get to the point that a free game bundled with a system is going to outsell one that isn't. Good god, say it aint so. GTA:LCS is slaughtering MK (yes, slaughtering, look at any offical tracker) in retail sales in EU + Australia, whilst maintaining a lead in NA.
Also, PSP UMD success is definitely not hurting software sales, UMD is doing fantastically well in the west, but who cares about that, thats just Sonys bottom line. In the end, software is still outselling DS. Thats what matters.


I never see any Nintendo fan mention that in the west, GBA+NDS hardware sales are lower than GBA of 2004. I never see them mention that software for GBA is down severely (look at NPD, chart track if you know where)....it just slips past them I guess. As long as Japan is doing a bit better, all is well. This momentum is sure carry to the Revolution.

 

[fearsomepirate]

the N64 was still outsold by the Playstation by more than 3:1.

Remember, the Playstation got the jump on the N64 by almost 2 years. If you look at the sales performance during the N64's actual lifespan, it wasn't getting beat 3:1. It was still getting beat, but it wasn't getting totally dominated.

The DS can outsell everything by a huge margin, but you still have absolutely no connection to the console market.

Not exactly. GBA isn't connecting with people who have disposable income, which is where a lot of the big console money is these days. You can sell piles of GBAs to the parents of 13-year-olds, but that obviously doesn't raise brand awareness and appeal among 22-year-olds.

There's also another connection: when people spend entertainment dollars on handhelds, that's money they aren't spending on home consoles. This stuff costs money, and people have a finite amount of it. Buying a PSP game for $40 means you're probably not buying a PS2 game at $50. Buying your kid a $79 GBA for Christmas means you probably didn't give him a $99 Gamecube. Getting a $35 DS games means you probably didn't pull a Gamecube game off the $40 rack.

Anecdotally, I have all the Nintendo hardware I need (DS & Gamecube). However, I only own 2 DS games and 1 GBA game, because I keep spending money on Gamecube games (before you say there aren't that many good games, that's only if you don't have a PS2 or Xbox...then there's a whole pile of cross-platform games to get).