BR/HD-DVD Thread

[PC-Engine]

Well if they made good movies they wouldn't have to depend on SONY fans with PS2s to buy their DVDs.

I don't understand how you can make so many "funny" remarks and get away with it.

Well I was told that as long as I don't flame any particular member, it's ok. Seriously just making a point about that rediculous quote you posted. If they need to depend on SONY loyalist to buy their movies to keep them afloat then they there is something wrong with the kind of movies they're producing. People buy movies that they enjoy watching. It doesn't matter if it's from SONY or Warner Bros and it doesn't matter if they play those movies on a SONY, Toshiba, or Panasonic DVD player.

 

[wco81]

I would guess a fair amount of PS3 first adapters would have a HDTV, right now HD has a 7% market "penetration" (nice word), the PS3 will run HD games, HD movies, much more HD content, cheaper HD sets.

I don't know what this market penetration figure means but actually int he US, 13% of households have HDTV displays. They may not all use it for HDTV yet, however.

At the end of 2005, that number is expected to be close to 25%.

By 2008, the percentage is forecasted to be 65%.

If you read avsforum.com, you will see the videophiles are definitely aware the PS3 will have a BR drive and that it will be much cheaper than any high-def movie player when it launches.

A lot of gamers also are ready for HDTV movies and games. Being sports fans, they are among the first to get HDTV tuners or HDTV set tops in addition to HDTV displays.

Like I said, look for a high tie-ratio between PS3 sales and sales of DVI or component cables (likely the first) as an indicator of how many PS3s are being connected to HDTV displays.

 

[-tkf-]

Well I was told that as long as I don't flame any particular member it's ok.

Sounds weird since it only provokes retarted responses.

Seriously just making a point about that rediculous quote you posted. If they need to depend on SONY loyalist to buy their movies to keep them afloat then they there is something wrong with the kind of movies they're producing. People buy movies that they enjoy watching. It doesn't matter if it's from SONY or Warner Bros and it doesn't matter if they play those movies on a SONY, Toshiba, or Panasonic DVD player.

"If they don't put DVD movie capability into the PlayStation 2, it ultimately costs them money -- there will be DVD movies that won't get sold," he said. That might hurt DVD sales at Sony divisions such as Sony Pictures and Columbia.

Where does that quote say anything about Sony needing fans to buy their movies? I think you read to much Sony hate into everything.

 

[one]

Aren't there any DVD collectors or serious fans of something in this forum? I'd bought some DVDs even when I didn't own a player for my collection purpose. I even buy the 2 same copies of something when I do collection (not for eBay, of course)

As for HD media, I prefer better bitrate in any case.

 

[-tkf-]

Aren't there any DVD collectors or serious fans of something in this forum? I'd bought some DVDs even when I didn't own a player for my collection purpose. I even buy the 2 same copies of something when I do collection (not for eBay, of course)

As for HD media, I prefer better bitrate in any case.

I don't think i'm in the same league (dual copies ) but i have a healthy collection around 600-700. And i started collecting when i got my Creative DVD drive. Since then i went through 2 or 3 Sony players and 2 Panasonic (current one is the XP30).

Since then i even got involved with a bit of DVD production.

 

[PC-Engine]

Where does that quote say anything about Sony needing fans to buy their movies? I think you read to much Sony hate into everything.

"If they don't put DVD movie capability into the PlayStation 2, it ultimately costs them money -- there will be DVD movies that won't get sold," he said. That might hurt DVD sales at Sony divisions such as Sony Pictures and Columbia.

Basically what they're saying is that if PS2 couldn't play DVD movies, movies from SONY studios would sell less, which is a strange way of looking at it. I mean if people liked the SONY produced movie, they'll buy it and play it on ANOTHER DVD player. They don't need a PS2 to have DVD movie capability for these people to buy their movies. It's retarded.

Nope only about 50% as the last url showed.

OK let's assume that figure is correct. So we have 50% of PS2 owners using it for DVD movies with 100% SDTV penetration with 100% Hollywood support and thousands of titles available.

Let's do a little quick math. If we assume 25% HDTV penetration when PS3 launches, that already cuts PS3 HD movie usage down to 1/4 of 50% which equals 12%. Now let's assume Blu-ray gets 50% Hollywood support. That 12% now drops to 6%. Now lets say there are 100 Blu-ray movies available at launch as an example out of the thousands of titles from the assumed 50% Hollywood backing. That 6% of PS3 HD movie usage shrinks even further to an even smaller number since 100 titles out of 50% of Hollywood titles would be less than 1% of total Hollywood titles.

 

[randycat99]

This whole "doomed platform over a video format" theory is getting pretty played out. HD techno-junkies will just end up buying a BR and an HD-DVD player to play the movies they want to see. If they bought a giant HDTV, then 2 players are hardly a big decision. It's simply what they do. So ultimately, neither format will make much strides because that demographic (the early adopter) is small. The numbers are not there for a "format war" to even begin to take place (witness SACD vs. DVD-A).

Meanwhile, the rest of us (the big demographic that matters) will just keep using DVD's to watch movies. Reasonable quality, obiquitous compatibility (the DVD you buy will surely work in the player you already have), commodity pricing- those things will ensure DVD will stick around a bit longer. Presumably, PS3 will play BR, but retain DVD player capability for PS2 backwards compatibility. So things will be much like they have always been wrt watching movies on Sony's game console, except there will be that "extra-special" HD movie capability should they ever bother buying a BR movie disc.

XB2 will have HD-DVD, presumably, and probably not for free, just as DVD was not for XB. For what few movie discs come out in HD-DVD, HD viewing on an XB2 will remain a niche feature- not enough to help or hurt it as a game console. So that will make less peripheral incentives for the casual buyer to pick up an XB2- no DVD or HD-DVD playback out of the box. It will have to make or break it on its limited game library.

When all the dust has settled, DVD will still be alive and kicking. Perhaps, it will end up outliving both XB2 and PS3. By that time, movies on HD-DVD and BR will be fading, withered pipedreams, ultimately inconsequential in the face of a new format that takes the best of both worlds and is cheaper. Then there will be a DVD successor.

So by PCE's strained logic, PS3 will be considered the go-to in continuing to play your DVD library, PS3 games, PS2 games, and a few specialty BR movies (which will develop that elitist, collector-edition appeal just by virtue of their rarity). XB2, ironically, will then become that "poor man's HD-DVD player". It'll play XB2 games, no DVD movies, and for an extra charge, HD-DVD playback. It will be the go-to for those too cheap to dig-in with a dedicated, full-featured HD-DVD player to complement their fancy HDTV, for a limited (but still bigger than BR selection) movie selection under a format which will ultimately flounder before the XB2 lifespan is through. So we have XB2 falling into "niche" with the games, "niche" with the movies, and on top of all that, don't expect x86 developers to make such a smooth transition to making PPC games. I'm not saying they won't be able to make that transition, but they certainly won't be leveraging their most refined coding skills to be making these games like the days of x86 game developing... Where XB suffered from growing pains as a platform, XB2 will be cursed once again with a different set of growing pains by their most respected x86 developers having to come to grips with a new PPC environment (not to mention getting 3 cores to play nicely when they were born and bred in a single CPU environment). So this certainly won't be a cakewalk for MS (even for a 2nd outing), once you come to realize the choice of video format is a red herring altogether.

Just my 8 bits.

 

[PC-Engine]

Thanks for taking the time to give your input Randy, but my posts are not to demonstrate that PS3 will be doomed. It's to demonstrate that the PS3 having Blu-ray will be a very small factor in the overall Blu-ray vs HD DVD battle which you seem to have agreed.

 

[randycat99]

Thanks for taking the time to give your input Randy, but my posts are not to demonstrate that PS3 will be doomed.

Gee, well that's a switch!

It's to demonstrate that the PS3 having Blu-ray will be a very small factor in the overall Blu-ray vs HD DVD battle which you seem to have agreed.

It appears you were the only one remotely concerned with that in the first place, but why should we be surprised?

 

[PC-Engine]

..........

I think PS3 will do pretty well actually, but I'm weiry of the 1 TFLOPS CELL claim. It'll still lose marketshare while MS and Nintendo gains.

It appears you were the only one remotely concerned with that in the first place, but why should we be surprised?

I fully disagree as -tkf- sounds more concerned about Blu-ray in PS3 than anyone here with his wishing of HD DVD to die.

 

[randycat99]

Once again, off-topic (let alone inaccurate).

 

[-tkf-]

Basically what they're saying is that if PS2 couldn't play DVD movies, movies from SONY studios would sell less

Nope, he said that with DVD in the PS2 more people would buy DVDs because more people would own a player. The exact same thing that i have been saying. The PS3 is the trojan Blu-Ray horse.

 

[cthellis42]

Ps2 didn't drive dvd sales just like the ps3 / xenon wont drive the next format sales .

Look. In 1999 dvds were already taken off . By the time the ps2 came out they had hit mass market and were getting alot of media attention about how fast it was growing and this and that.

It had indeed picked up (and was ahead of Japan's curve, which would have been more affected by the PS2 since it was also out there nine months earlier and their adoption curve much flatter), but it was not so large and all-encompassing that it wouldn't have noticed it.

2000's holiday season (Nov/Dec sales) saw ~2.2 million DVD players sales and ~1.5 PS2's. 2001's total sales saw 12.7 DVD player sales and 8.4 million PS2's. 2002's broke down 17 to ~12.5. The numbers are not all-encompassing, but they are certainly not inconsequential. (These are, for reference, only US sales numbers I'm talking about.) By the end of 2001, PS2's accounted for ~27% of "set top" DVD players, picked up to ~33% in 2002, and even now still sits around 27% (79 million DVD player sales as of 9/04 according to the CEA, and 30 million PS2 sales according to Sony). ~24% if you add the Xbox into the tally, which does not carry an inconsequential percentage itself.

Now PC DVD-ROM drives remain a bit of a mystery; I still have no tracking data for them, but then they wouldn't typically drive DVD movie sales, so while they'd have an affect, I feel safe in saying "nowhere near what 'plug-into-your-TV' boxes would." We also, of course, don't know other factors, such as what percentage of those numbers reflect warranty replacements, 2nd sales to the same owner (who would not buy a whole new media collection) for another TV, sales of PS2's to someone who already owned a DVD player, the percentage of PS2 owners bought a DVD player later on or don't bother using the DVD playback at all... (Throw and Xbox into the mix and confuse all those numbers further.) And in recent times the CEA numbers may not be as fully inclusive, as they do not reflect recorder sales, nor any game system or computer sales--and we've started to see even PC's used more as a DVD playing/recording/PVR device. Not huge, but present. But though there are many indescernables, but in none of these cases would I term the effects inconsequential or immeasurable.

Did PS2 "drive" DVD sales--player or media--in the US? Of course not--we were well on the way, and DVD's popularity was unshakable. But did it have an effect...? Of course it did. It had to as it did not represent an inconsequential percentage of the market, neither in its early stages nor today. (In Japan, however, I think their DVD market was very much boosted by the PS2; it was an easy convergence device in a machine desirable on its own right, and set at an extremely competitive price.)

But while I wouldn't consider today's DVD market to be more than rustled by stripping out the PS2 or Xbox or other devices, think what's being said: Next generation consoles and next generation media players will be coming out close on each others' heels, and PC drives wont really exist in any volume by then either. Not only that, but desire for HD media players will be primarily driven by people with HD televisions, which is much further behind the curve than "televisions(TM)" were in 1997. The next generation consoles, however, will have more desirability--and likely faster pickup--than last generation whether they had HD playing capabilities or not. Having it will only increase their attractiveness--and it will be early enough in the HD player life that people will look for "ability to play" over "overall quality and features." They'll start judging that when HD players have gone down notably in price.

So could next generation's consoles have an effect on how HD media is adopted, by the public and by business? You bet your sweet ass it could.

 

[PC-Engine]

Basically what they're saying is that if PS2 couldn't play DVD movies, movies from SONY studios would sell less

Nope, he said that with DVD in the PS2 more people would buy DVDs because more people would own a player. The exact same thing that i have been saying. The PS3 is the trojan Blu-Ray horse.

And the exact same thing you've been saying have been shot down repeatedly. People will buy DVD players to watch DVD movies they deem worthy. If the PS2 didn't have DVD playback, people will still buy DVD players. You act like if a household has 1 DVD player and 1 PS2 DVD player, that household will buy two copies of the same movie...makes no sense at all. More DVD players can just mean people are buying a second unit for their other room etc. It doesn't necessarilly mean more DVD sales.

Regarding PS3's trojan Blu-ray horse, well if you hadn't noticed, I shot that down thoroughly starting with your 50% DVD movie usage on PS2 above.

 

[-tkf-]

And the exact same thing you've been saying have been shot down repeatedly.

You are the only one doing the shooting and you have so far brough one incredible stupid math example to the table that has no basis in real life no facts to back it up and the exact same math piece for HD-DVD would yield the same result. You have several times hinted that noone would use a PS2 for DVD playback, i point to an actual research showing 50% does it, you ignore it. Keep shooting with those blanks.

 

[PC-Engine]

And the exact same thing you've been saying have been shot down repeatedly.

You are the only one doing the shooting and you have so far brough one incredible stupid math example to the table that has no basis in real life no facts to back it up and the exact same math piece for HD-DVD would yield the same result. You have several times hinted that noone would use a PS2 for DVD playback, i point to an actual research showing 50% does it, you ignore it. Keep shooting with those blanks.

Actually what I said was that people who bought PS2 to watch DVDs because it was a cheap DV player was ONE factor among many factors.

50% of PS2 owners using it to also watch DVDs isn't the same as a small percentage of people buying PS2 because it's a cheap DVD player.

Of course you understand this and my corresponding post above with percentage breakdowns, but you pretend the bullets don't hurt.

Keep dodging those bullets...it's futile.

 

[-tkf-]

And the exact same thing you've been saying have been shot down repeatedly.

You are the only one doing the shooting and you have so far brough one incredible stupid math example to the table that has no basis in real life no facts to back it up and the exact same math piece for HD-DVD would yield the same result. You have several times hinted that noone would use a PS2 for DVD playback, i point to an actual research showing 50% does it, you ignore it. Keep shooting with those blanks.

Actually what I said was that people who bought PS2 to watch DVDs because it was a cheap DV player was ONE factor among many factors.

50% of PS2 owners using it to also watch DVDs isn't the same as a small percentage of people buying PS2 because it's a cheap DVD player.

Of course you understand this and my corresponding post above with percentage breakdowns, but you pretend the bullets don't hurt.

Keep dodging those bullets...it's futile.

I just think i will stop arguing with you on this subject, you remind me to much of a politician. In a few years whoever is right you will claim you "won" anyway.

 

[PC-Engine]

Actually in a few years, the only company that might not release dual format players is SONY and it's PS3 which can't play HD DVDs.

 

[-tkf-]

Actually in a few years, the only company that might not release dual format players is SONY and it's PS3 which can't play HD DVDs.

Back to the start, so.. go back in the thread and start all over again, 75 million PS3's that can play Blu-Ray, yeah sure, as they would be ignored by hollywood.

 

[PC-Engine]

Actually in a few years, the only company that might not release dual format players is SONY and it's PS3 which can't play HD DVDs.

Back to the start, so.. go back in the thread and start all over again, 75 million PS3's that can play Blu-Ray, yeah sure, as they would be ignored by hollywood.

What's the point -tkf-?

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