Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

that guy didn't know what he's talking about the first time, he still doesn't.

blu-ray sales are low because people are spending less in general. and their shifting more of their money towards saving/investing. movies are considered minor luxuries to the majority of people. most are content to go to the theater a couple times a month & just watch TV. the only titles which have done really well are blockbusters which people enjoy re-watching & showing friends.

when the economy gets more stable and the MSRP drops below $20 (w/ $12-15 being typical price) it will pick up. a $150 player doesn't mean much if the movies for it are $30-40.

So only the people who buy blu-ray are shifting away from buying movies?

Entertainment rarely suffers with recession people will cut back on other things first.
 
It's inconclusive. Sales could be even higher. I think they intend to observe the trend longer before concluding.

I remember someone in BDA commented recently that they are pretty nervous about this recession. He/they mentioned in passing that if not for the current downturn, they were much more optimistic.
 
They were always going to sting the early adopters for more cash in order to try and make up initial investments. Combined with the industry hubris that content is too cheap and that they can charge more, this has left prices way too high against the "good enough" DVD.

They are simply going to have to move into their later consolidation phase (ie hoovering up those cheap customers who won't pay more than £10 for a disc whatever it is) sooner rather than later. They can't wait for mass market adoption to give them economies of scale, and if they take too long, some other technology will come along and take it's place.
 
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It's a balance between profit margin and rate of adoption. The BDA members have enough past and present data points to aid their decision making. Any risk in slowing or stopping adoption has already been calculated into the current pricing scheme and roll out schedule (including "losing out to another format" so to speak). Naturally, they will continue to track the market and will react accordingly.
 
I've tried the DD experience, it currently sucks. XBox, AppleTV, PS3, Netflix. What they've done is streamed the movie, but you lose almost *all* extra features, including multiple audio tracks and subtitles.

The subtitle thing infuriates the hell out of me. I often like to watch videos with the sound low to avoid waking the kids, and subtitles help alot. They also help my wife whose first language is not English. Currently, PPV on satellite or cable is far superior in this regard, minimally, preserving the closed captions.


Also, I don't like the rental aspect that often accompanies the DD, and the pay-to-own DRM feature has the following drawbacks: 1) often not much cheaper than owning the disk 2) can't take it on the road 3) can't lend the DD to someone else and 4) if the company discontinues their program, your purchases become worthless, because most of the DD schemes are proprietary. This happened to my friend who bought DD from Google Video, only to have all of his content because worthless when Google discontinued the server.

This BluRay is dead stuff seems like a hold over from the HD-DVD vs BD wars, where the losers of the argument in a fit of sour grapes, immediately switched their arguments to "well, Optical is dead, so there!" It's like a McCain supporter going, "oh well, it doesn't matter who is President in 2009, because they will get blamed for the situation by 2012, so better the Republicans lose and the Democrats get blamed!" Sour grapes.
 
That article is silly as is all this effort to support the format.

Who cares? It is a business. If people say it is dead it does not make it magically so. If anything it will make them lower their prices to gain adoption and I sure would not mind that one bit. I am still waiting for my BR drive for <=$50 or burner for <=$100 for my htpc.
 
I dunno, if blu ray prices hover around 20-30 US dollars I do not really see a problem. Those seem like fair prices to me considering the upgrade in quality. While some in the US may disagree I dont think many consumer that are purchasing a luxury such as blu ray mind the price per title.
 
I get my movies from Amazon and its amazing to see how many Bluray movies and good ones at that are there for 14.99. Sure the brand new releases are in the 25 dollar range.

I dont watch a lot of movies but there are some movies that I love to watch over and over again and only those movies are movies I actually pay to buy them. I dont rent movies I would rather go see it at the movie theater.
 
The main difference between DVD and BluRay is that when DVD came out, people went out and replaced their entire VHS library because the difference in fidelity was so vast.

I don't see that happening with BluRay except for a few titles that looked like crap on DVD (eg. Black Hawk Down).

As BR players reach price parity with DVD players, there is no longer any reason not to buy a BR player. The increase in players will automatically lead to an increase of titles being purchased on BR. But it won't be the revolution DVD was.

Cheers
 
The main difference between DVD and BluRay is that when DVD came out, people went out and replaced their entire VHS library because the difference in fidelity was so vast.

I don't see that happening with BluRay except for a few titles that looked like crap on DVD (eg. Black Hawk Down).

As BR players reach price parity with DVD players, there is no longer any reason not to buy a BR player. The increase in players will automatically lead to an increase of titles being purchased on BR. But it won't be the revolution DVD was.

Cheers
When star wars finally get released on BR I can see tons of people buying them since the prequels look like shit on dvd- vast amounts of edge enhancement.
 
I think the problem is that for the mainstream they consider BR as nothing more than "a better DVD". Until BR costs the same, people just will not pay out double the price for a disc that doesn't give them a perceptible benefit, especially if they don't have proper HD screens. Sure, the spectacular movies might be attractive, but I can't see the great benefit of a "When Harry Met Sally" in BR for twice the price of the DVD that can certainly be upscaled "good enough".

BR movies need to come way down in price before they are going to replace DVD, and even then I bet most people will only be buying new movies, not replacing their DVD collections. The industry is totally dreaming if they think they can pull off the same trick as when cassette -> CD or VHS -> DVD. It just won't happen, the buying public won't do it.
 
I see ads all over the place for $300 BR players and BD-ROM drives are under $100 now. BD burners are still over $100 though and blank media are still around $5 for a 25GB BR disc. It'll be another couple years before BR is affordable for mass adoption.
 
Im curious, if we are going to talk about Blu Rays death perhaps we should know a bit about how compression technology is scaling over time?

What kind of quality does say 5gb (Rounded out for ease of use) net you now in terms of quality/frame rate on a 90min movie compared to say 1 year ago? 2 years ago? 3?

Also sorry for the multi-parter but what are the obvious replacement options for Blu Ray in areas without highspeed internet? Would a flash/kiosk approach work for this type of content in areas without the needed internet infrastructure?

This is the most important aspect. It be interesting to see what a company can come up with now vs the vc1 and avc of the hd disc concemption phases.

The 360 is also using a variable stream and the bit rate will adjst on the fly depending on your connection status.

I thnk for most people what xbox live offer in hd is good enough esp at the price points given. For the next xbox i'm sure they will have even better codecs while users at home get more bandwidth
 
There won't be only one way to enjoy movies.

Blu-ray players will simply be combined with other related playback technologies. We have already seen digital download + Blu-ray players from Sony, LG and Samsung. More will come our way. We will also see HDTV + built-in Blu-ray players.

Standalone Blu-ray players have come down to $140. As long as it is easy to get reasonably priced Blu-ray movies, it should continue to spread. The brick-n-mortar retailers will be interested to push Blu-ray. e.g., Other than Universal and Sony Pictures' POP kiosks, the Redbox kiosks will also carry Blu-ray movies now/soon.

The Blu-ray standard is the first to include a software platform (the Java VM) as part of the storage standard. We will see more evolution in this area should the standard proliferates. Blu-ray burner will be another area to watch.
 
The main difference between DVD and BluRay is that when DVD came out, people went out and replaced their entire VHS library because the difference in fidelity was so vast.

I don't see that happening with BluRay except for a few titles that looked like crap on DVD (eg. Black Hawk Down).

As BR players reach price parity with DVD players, there is no longer any reason not to buy a BR player. The increase in players will automatically lead to an increase of titles being purchased on BR. But it won't be the revolution DVD was.

Cheers

meh, well people must need glasses. a good blu-ray on a full HD screen (not necessarily a given for a lot of people, i know) is a massive improvement over DVD. DVD looks blurry and rubbish by comparison. you don't even need an A-B test to be able to tell, it's immediately apparent. it's a little bit nicer even on an SD screen, but not really worth it in that case.
 
meh, well people must need glasses. a good blu-ray on a full HD screen (not necessarily a given for a lot of people, i know) is a massive improvement over DVD. DVD looks blurry and rubbish by comparison. you don't even need an A-B test to be able to tell, it's immediately apparent. it's a little bit nicer even on an SD screen, but not really worth it in that case.

I agree absolutely. Sorry for posting in an old thread. But just bought a 52 inch Sony LCD and was looking around in this section of the forum for people and their HD experiences and just had to respond to this :)
 
Yeah, especially on bigger TVs or if you sit closer to the screen, the difference can be rather big. We just got Wall-E this weekend, my wife had bought it on DVD and I asked her to exchange it for BluRay. Wow, that is one spectacular looking movie, especially the first 30 minutes are amazing. We've freeze-framed bits of Wall-E's home just to look at the stuff hes collected and how he organised it. That first bit was a lot better than the rest of the movie I thought, but anyway I (we) still loved it.

Also, everything seemed right in this release in terms of how the menu worked, etc. Everything was very slick, smooth and snappy.
 
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