biggest seller of the year

[zed]

i thought it would be interesting to gauge how well the forum members can pick the biggest seller ( we'll see if the console forum readers can do better than the last poll i tried where >80% of the gpu forum readers said the r600 was gonna be faster then the g80 )

so without further ado ignoring wii-play,
whats everyones pick for the single biggest seller (US/japan) of the calender year

 

[aselto]

The thread is definitely missing the new Pokemon for NintendoDS.
My guess is either Pokemon or Mario Galaxy and Halo 3 will be at third place.

 

[Rangers]

Out of those titles? Halo 3, obviously.

US/Japan? Why throw that in? They will buy none of Halo, maybe a little GTA, but a lot of the Nintendo titles. Not fair..make it USA only.

Not really "not fair", it's just most people dont know the Japan market.

I dont think WW Mario Galaxy can top Halo 3..could be wrong though. The install bases should be even by then.

Pokeman might be the biggest seller, but personally I like limiting this thread to consoles because I dont know that $39 games on $129 hardware should really compete with $59 games on $250+ hardware..

 

[scooby_dooby]

Gta4

Out of those titles? Halo 3, obviously.

Really?
GTA: SA - 14.88m ww
Halo 2 - 8.19

 

[AlphaWolf]

Gta4



Really?
GTA: SA - 14.88m ww
Halo 2 - 8.19

Not in the first couple months they didn't. Which is the timeframe you'd be looking at if we're talking about this calendar year.

 

[Fu3lFr3nzy]

Out of that list, Halo 3 easily. The only title coming close would be GTA4, then Madden.

 

[Rangers]

Not in the first couple months they didn't. Which is the timeframe you'd be looking at if we're talking about this calendar year.

Plus GTA SA was on PS2 with waaaaay more userbase than GTA 4 will have access to on any console..

GTA 4's biggest market will be 360 with what, 10 million sold? Then PS3 with 3 million? GTA SA had PS2=100 million.

 

[zed]

US/Japan? Why throw that in?

i wanted to do worldwide but the NPD/japan sales figures seem to be the easiest to trace / thus theres no arguments at the end of the day. true halo/gta4/madden will sell bugger all in japan (if they even launch this year)
i voted mario galaxy ( either that or smash brothers i picking to sell the most, with gta4 coming in second )

 

[Skrying]

1.) Halo 3 - Most anticipated of those titles I would argue. Plus the Halo series has shown already with the first two that even in a small market it can get massive sales.
2.) GTA4 - Because its multiplatform. If say this was launching on one (be it just PS3 or 360) I would say its last. The hype is sorta there, just not as the others, IMO. I like the direction that this game is heading however.
3.) Super Smash Bros. Brawl - The game I want most on this list, a game I think many people want more than the next Mario. The game is just simply out right entertaining, its looking very good, and due to the nature of the Wii I think many people will want to have this when friends come over.
4.) Mario Galaxy - It looks cool, but I still get the feeling Mario hasn't changed since his N64 days. Should be cool to see how it controls (I think it will be a shining example of the Wii in this regard) but overall I don't think another solid Mario title is enough to beat the games above in sales.

 

[Arwin]

I don't see Halo doing all that much better than Gears. Maybe double that at best. Meanwhile, the Wii will have by far the largest installbase at the end of this year, and I predict an even higher percentage of Wii owners will buy Mario Galaxy than the percentage of 360 owners that will buy Halo 3.

So I voted for Nintendo.

After all this honest analysis though, I need to make myself feel better by noting in this post that the Playstation 3 is getting the best games in the second half of this year by far.*








* your tastes may vary

 

[djskribbles]

gta4 because its multiplat.

i think mario galaxy has the better shot at second than halo 3, although i think it will be close.

 

[Mr. Domino]

Hasn't Halo 3 already got 4 million preorders in the USA alone and about 5 million worldwide? I don't think any game can beat that.

 

[pipo]

Meanwhile, the Wii will have by far the largest installbase at the end of this year...

By far? Does not compute.

~1.3M * 9 + ~6M = ~18M by the end of this year (Nintendo is still working on production issues and has a 14M sales target for FY 08 - so I'm being generous here ).

What do you think the 360 will do?

Hasn't Halo 3 already got 4 million preorders in the USA alone and about 5 million worldwide? I don't think any game can beat that.

Yup. It'll do way better then Gears.

 

[ErnstH]

i wanted to do worldwide but the NPD/japan sales figures seem to be the easiest to trace / thus theres no arguments at the end of the day. true halo/gta4/madden will sell bugger all in japan (if they even launch this year)
i voted mario galaxy ( either that or smash brothers i picking to sell the most, with gta4 coming in second )

I'm still not sure how much of a games-buyer the typical Wii owner is. It will be interesting to see how much the big Nintendo games will sell on it (relative to installed base). Personally, I think Halo3 will have a much higher penetration with Xbox360 owners (also given attach rates on Xbox360), so I still think it will come out on top, even as the Wii might have a slight advantage in installed base.

 

[Arwin]

By far? Does not compute.

~1.3M * 9 + ~6M = ~18M by the end of this year (Nintendo is still working on production issues and has a 14M sales target for FY 08 - so I'm being generous here ).

What do you think the 360 will do?

You may have a point there.

Yup. It'll do way better then Gears.

5 million pre-orders outside of the U.S. vs 4 million within? Haven't over 60% of all 360s been sold to the U.S. market alone?

 

[Mr. Domino]

5 million pre-orders outside of the U.S. vs 4 million within? Haven't over 60% of all 360s been sold to the U.S. market alone?

You got it wrong, 5 million worldwide, with 4 million of that coming from the USA. So 1 million outside of the USA. I don't really get it though. Why is this game so MASSIVELY populair?

 

[aselto]

Hasn't Halo 3 already got 4 million preorders in the USA alone and about 5 million worldwide?

No. This number is totally unreasonable.

 

[archangelmorph]

5 million pre-orders outside of the U.S. vs 4 million within? Haven't over 60% of all 360s been sold to the U.S. market alone?

FACT: Halo 3 still has a good couple of months left for pre-orders to start piling up..

FACT: MS's marketing machine hasn't even begun its Halo 3 pre-release campaign yet (the Beta is doing just enough marketing as it is, not to mention introducing alot of new-to-Halo gamers to some of the strengths/pulling power of the franchise; gameplay and multiplayer..)

FACT: Nobdy in their right mind would attempt to launch a "legendary edition" SKU of their game with a whopping price tag of $100+ unless they absolutely knew their game would sell like a Farrari-at-$50..

IMO I would say that 5 million pre-orders of a game that nobody has so far even seen a single screenshot or video of what it's "actually" going to look like is a bloody good indicator that it's going to trounce the market like nothing on earth sales-wise..

 

[rabidrabbit]

1. GTA4
2. Mario Galaxy
3. Halo 3
4. Madden
5. Super Smash Bros Brawl

 

[TheChefO]

Ugh.

I voted GTA4 and just realized something ... GTA sales were on the back of a dominant ps2 and a fairly well established xbox.

By the end of the year ps3 sales will still be fairly low with xb360 leading by more than double. A few years from now that may change.

xb360 fanbase may surprise and buy H3 in equal numbers to GTA4, which would tip the scales to gta4 after adding ps3 sales. But I don't see it. GTA4 should be a great game, but the market has already been tapped a bit with Crackdown and Saints Row.

...after further review:

HALO3