I would think that R420 is indeed a mix of R3xx and R400.
R500 is now R400++
R600 is now R500++
R500 will have VS/PS 3.0 but would it also have VS/PS 4.0? maybe not.
Shader Model 4.0 would probably be for R600.
so Xbox 2 will be SM4/DX10 capable, and hopefully the speed to make SM3 run very well.
now assuming things are no more complicated than that, then the question turns to N5/GCNext. is it also going to use something based on R600, but tailored for Nintendo, or is it a totally-custom-to-Nintendo-only design, as Flipper was?
I'm betting on a modified R600 for Nintendo. at least as modified as the Xbox 2 variant. PC-Xbox2-Nintendo will all have a commen graphics platform in 2006. not 100% identical, but a similar technology base.
of course, I could be completely wrong....