ATI Going for Xbox2?

[Teasy]

Anyway, will ati really have the superior hardware when we can buy geforce FX cards? I really don't think so.

Do you think ATI has been sitting on there hands since releasing the R300? Of course not, they have the fastest card right now, and they had it finished and out the door quite some time ago. Since finishing the R300 they'll have been working on a souped up version. I'm sure they could have had something faster out already if they needed it.

As soon as Geforce FX is released, and if its actually faster then R300, you can bet that ATI will release there souped up R300 to stay ahead.

Then while Nvidia are working on a soupled up NV30 to beat the souped up R300,m ATI will be working on there next gen part to destroy Nvidia's souped up NV30 This is how it always works, except for the last several years its been Nvidia that's ahead, and ATI playing catch up, now the roles are reversed.

This market is all about getting ahead and staying ahead, once your well ahead you usually need to slip up to go behind.. well ATI are well ahead right now with R300 and I don't see them slipping up just yet.

 

[Qroach]

Teasy,

Why don't you think so?

Why don't I think so? Quite obvious actually. Once nvidia's cards are in stores, both ATI and Nvidia will essentially have the same feature set, and will only be competing on speed (until the next revision of open GL or DX10.

Do you think ATI has been sitting on there hands since releasing the R300? Of course not, they have the fastest card right now, and they had it finished and out the door quite some time ago. So obviously since finishing the R300 they'll have been working on a suoped up version, they could have had something faster out already if they needed it.

Do you think nvidia hasn't had numerous teams working in parallel also? just because GFX was delayed doesn't mean that all of their internal development teams are delayed aws well. Either way you look at it, the next radeon and next geforce card aren't going to incorporate any new feautres to consider one competitor ahead of the other technologically.

As soon as Geforce FX is release, and if its actually faster then R300, you can bet that ATI will release there souped up R300 to stay ahead.

...and you can bet Nvidia will relelase something faster right after that. Judging by your thought on this, you seem to think whoever has the faster part out is ahead int eh technological race, correct? Well, if the geforce FX is faster than the 9700 then nvidia will have that crown until somehting faster comes out. personally I think it's whoever is the most feature complete along with performace that is crowned the current winner. I think ATi needs to move to a lower process if they want to reach the clock speeds nvidia is going to be at. That won't happen until a little while after the FX is available IMO.

 

[Dave Baumann]

I really don't see ATi getting invovled with MS and the Next box. Nvidia didn't only provide the the graphics chip. they provided the mother board design, Audio chip, among other areas. i think they are to interwoven at this point to be easily replaced.

ATi already have Northbridge parts and are working on Southbridge. They are making a more concerted push into chipsets next year as well. This, IMO, wouldn’t be a stumbling block. It also isn’t a given that MS will seek a similar configuration to their current system.

I also don't think that just having direct-X will fix back wards compatiability. the version of direct-X in xbox is specific and optimized to the NV2A.

And what do you think is on NV2A that wouldn’t be achievable on PS/VS 3.0 or 4.0 (or equivalent) parts?

Once nvidia's cards are in stores, both ATI and Nvidia will essentially have the same feature set, and will only be competing on speed (until the next revision of open GL or DX10.

For 6 to 8 months. We know that R400, that is almost certainly to be a PS/VS3.0 part, is being scheduled for next summer. Is NVIDIA going to run NV35 straight off the roadmap and replace it with NV40? Are they in a position to do that?

...and you can bet Nvidia will relelase something faster right after that.

So NV35 is going to be just a few months down the line?

 

[Teasy]

I'd say that if Nvidia and ATI's best cards both have the same feature set and ATI's is faster then yes ATI still has the superior hardware. If Nvidia's feature set was significantly better then ATI's and the card was only a little slower then ATI's then Nvidia would have the superior hardware.

Do you think nvidia hasn't had numerous teams working in parallel also?

The key word there being also. Nvidia and ATI both have teams working in parallel, ATI are well ahead right now so why shouldn't they stay there?

...and you can bet Nvidia will relelase something faster right after that.

Then ATI will release something better to beat that, and the circle continues

Right now Nvidia are having to catch up, they would release something to beat R300 now if they could, but they can't. Were as ATI could release something faster right now but just don't need to. That gives ATI the advantage. I'm sure Nvidia will have a team or two free to work on something other then Nv30. But at the same time ATI has had all of there teams free to work on something other then R300, because it was finished and on the shelf quite a while ago.

Obviously things don't always work out, so I can't say for sure that ATI will stay ahead. But I really see no reason for anyone to be confident that they won't.

I think ATi needs to move to a lower process if they want to reach the clock speeds nvidia is going to be at.

The R300 has been shown to overclock to 400mhz+.. so I'm sure they can clock it even higher in one of there newer products.

Then they just add DDR2 ram, and they should be able to go from a 300mhz core/600mhz ram R300 to a 500mhz core/1200mhz ram R300. I'd be suprised if they don't already have something similar ready to go, they showed a DDR2 R300 ages ago on TechTV.

Also considering 0.13 micron will be maturing now (if it wasn't Nvidia wouldn't be close to bringing out NV30) ATI should be ok to go to that process if they need to.

 

[Qroach]

ATi already have Northbridge parts and are working on Southbridge. They are making a more concerted push into chipsets next year as well. This, IMO, wouldn’t be a stumbling block. It also isn’t a given that MS will seek a similar configuration to their current system.

If they want backwards compatabilty, i think they'll want a similar configuration.

And what do you think is on NV2A that wouldn’t be achievable on PS/VS 3.0 or 4.0 (or equivalent) parts?

I didn't say anything would or wouldn't be achieveable, did I? I only said Direct-X on xbox is optmized for the Nvidia hardware. It's NV2A specific, and this could cause problems.

For 6 to 8 months. We know that R400, that is almost certainly to be a PS/VS3.0 part, is being scheduled for next summer. Is NVIDIA going to run NV35 straight off the roadmap and replace it with NV40? Are they in a position to do that?

Who knows really, I's just as possible as ATi delaying the R400 for all we know. at this point it's nothing more than guess.

So NV35 is going to be just a few months down the line?

It all depends on how fast NV30 is IMO. Who knows...

 

[Qroach]

Teasy,

I'd say that if Nvidia and ATI's best cards both have the same feature set and ATI's is faster then yes ATI still has the superior hardware. If Nvidia's feature set was significantly better then ATI's and the card was only a little slower then ATI's then Nvidia would have the superior hardware.

...and what do you say when they both have the same feature set and Nvidia's card/chip is faster? Assuming you don't go back on what you said above, I'm sure you'll say "yes" they have the superior hardware.

The key word there being also. Nvidia and ATI both have teams working in parallel, ATI are well ahead right now so why shouldn't they stay there?

There you go again, "well ahead" of what exactly? When the Geforce FX is out, how far ahead will ATI be again? Just becuase ATi has said they will release the R350 to compete with the GFX doesn't necessairily mean it will end up doing that. Why don't you wait and see what the performance is like on the GFX before claiming someone to be ahead.

Why shouldn't they stay there? common by that logic, 3dfx would still be the leader if that was the case.

And ATI will release something better to beat that. Right now Nvidia are having to catch up, they would release something to beat R300 now if they could. Were as ATI could release something faster right now but just don't need to.

You SAY ATI could release somehting faster right now, but that simply isn't true IMO. this is what you must hope, but I don't think ATi would have the R350 ready at this point to be released right now.

Obviously things don't always work out, so I can't say for sure that ATI will stay ahead. But I really see no reason for anyone to be confident that they won't.

Well at least you're being a "little" more resonable here. You don't see any reason for them not falling behind again? how many times have you seen ATI fall behind in the past? if nvidia weren't a part of the race, I would agree with you. However nvidia are fully capable of chatching up imo since they haven't fallen that far behind.

The R300 has been showed to overclock to 400mhz+.. so I'm sure they can clock it even higher in one of there newer products.

Overclocking means nothing. What has the Geforce FX been over clocked to? having a single part with crazy cooling/overclocked doesn't mean you can consistently produce parts running at that speed with a high yeild rate.

 

[Teasy]

If Nvidia and ATI's cards both had the same feature set and Nvidia's card was faster then Nvidia would have the superior hardware yes. But as I said I don't see that happening, not for long anyway.

ATI has not been sitting around waiting for Nvidia to catch up. While Nvidia is catching up with R300, ATI is not doubt cooking something up to keep themselves ahead, at least speedwise (they've had plenty of time to do this since R300's release). Which is what Nvidia has been doing to ATI for years now, until the NV30 slipup.

There you go again, "well ahead" of what exactly? When the Geforce FX is out, how far ahead will ATI be again? Just becuase ATi has said they will release the R350 to compete with the GFX doesn't necessairily mean it will end up doing that. Why don't you wait and see what the performance is like on the GFX before claiming someone to be ahead.

I don't see Geforce FX on the shelfs with Radeon 9700. ATI has by far the best card out right now, and its been the best for quite a while, so right now they ARE well ahead. As in ATI have had a card out for several months that is a full generation ahead of anything Nvidia have out.

Why shouldn't they stay there? common by that logic, 3dfx would still be the leader if that was the case.

3DFX lost the lead for a reason. What sort of logic would it be for me to assume that ATI will lose its lead because 3DFX did?

I'm not assuming that ATI will deffinately stay ahead because they are ahead now, but I see no reason to believe that Nvidia will leap back ahead.

You SAY ATI could release somehting faster right now, but that simply isn't true IMO. this is what you must hope, but I don't think ATi would have the R350 ready at this point to be released right now.

ATI have had all of there teams free since R300 was released, so as I said they haven't be sitting on there hands. They showed a R300 with DDR2 ram a little while ago.

Now obviously ATI wouldn't release something faster then R300 now, because it would be counter productive. But what makes you think you couldn't? I see no reason to believe that ATI couldn't release a faster R300 right now.

Well at least you're being resonable here.

Quincy, I've been reasonable throughout so far. Don't turn this into a nasty argument, lets keep it civil.

I have no reason to be anything but reasonable here. I have no aligence to ATI at all, I thought everyone knew that I'm a PowerVR fan.

Overclocking means nothing. What has the Geforce FX been over clocked to? having a single part with crazy cooling/overclocked doesn't mean you can consistently produce parts running at that speed with a high yeild rate.

Its a sign that R300 is not limited to its 300mhz clock speed by its current process. Clearly the 0.15 micron process still allows quite a bit of headroom. I'm sure ATI can clock the core up in the many many months they've had since releasing R300.

I don't know what Geforce FX can be clocked to, but its not important anyway. The point I believe we were discussing is wether or not R300 would need to go to a smaller process to clock higher, nothing to do with Geforce FX.

 

[Dave Baumann]

And what do you think is on NV2A that wouldn’t be achievable on PS/VS 3.0 or 4.0 (or equivalent) parts?

We are talked about a part that’s 3-4 years on from NV2A, look at the step year step both ATI and NVIDIA have made in the past year with R200-R300 and NV2x-NV30 – I don’t think a few ‘optimizations’ are going to be that much of an issue.

Plus, somehow I find it hard to believe that MS would leave themselves tied into one manufacturer – doesn’t make much business sence.

Who knows really, I's just as possible as ATi delaying the R400 for all we know. at this point it's nothing more than guess….

It all depends on how fast NV30 is IMO. Who knows...

Surely it depends more on the developmental status of NV35 than hoe fast NV30 is – afterall if its not ready they can’t release it can they.

However, we have had guidance from both companies so far. We know that ATI have stated a spring refresh of R300 in the form of R350, with R400 being their Summer/fall part (slated in at this time, if no issues holding it up). On the other hand we’ve had Kirk state that its reasonable to assume their 6 month cycle of a new part and then refresh is still in place for NV30/35 (which puts NV35 as their Summer/Fall part) and their CEO stating that development lifecycles will be slowing down.

 

[DemoCoder]

Isn't DirectX on xbox statically linked? If so, that would make it hard to substitute in non-NV2A register compatible hardware.

I predict Microsoft will go with the company that they have had a working relationship in the past. Starting a such a huge project with another company requires relearning the other organization's culture, getting new engineering teams to work together, etc Remember, MS chose NVidia over Gigapixel because MS couldn't trust such a large project with GP, not because GP technology was neccessarily inferior to the GF2. Does MS want to work with a new company, who is also working simultaneously on their competitor's parts as well? Does MS really need to replace the nForce components with a radically different north/south bridge for Xbox 2. These are issues Nvidia is going to bring up.

The only way ATI can win this one is if they have way better hardware, not just "on par", and they can deliver it cheap. And NVidia would have to make more huge missteps on execution. Otherwise, MS will make the "safe" bet and stick with the vendor they are already used to working with.

You can play up MS's pricing issues with NVidia, but MS has also had heated battles with Intel, and that hasn't hurt the Wintel relationship.

 

[Qroach]

Teasy,

If Nvidia and ATI's cards both had the same feature set and Nvidia's card was faster then Nvidia would have the superior hardware yes. But as I said I don't see that happening, not for long anyway.

That's the difference between you and I. I don't only consider a difference in speed what makes one company technologically ahead of another. It's a combination of both speed and features IMO. Once nvidia releases the FX they will have caught up with ATI imo. it'll be interesting if ATi can release a part shortly after that catches and surpasses the FX in performance.

ATI has not been sitting around waiting for Nvidia to catch up. While Nvidia is catching up with R300, ATI is not doubt cooking something up to keep themselves ahead, at least speedwise (they've had plenty of time to do this since R300's release). Which is what Nvidia has been doing to ATI for years now, until the NV30 slipup.

...and nvidia is cooking something else to also keep them selves ahead right after the frist FX cards arrive. Do you see where this argument is going? each company is goign to try and one up each other with each release. nvidia took a risk of using the newer process, but I think it's going to pay off for them in the long run.

I don't see Geforce FX on the shelfs with Radeon 9700. ATI has by far the best card out right now, and its been the best for quite a while, so right now they ARE well ahead. As in ATI have had a card out for several months that is a full generation ahead of anything Nvidia have out.

As I said before and I SAY again. ONCE the geforce FX is out, how will ATI be the technological leaders? That's just the thing, they won't be any longer. They got the jump on nvidia releasing a card with tons of features before Nvidia could. Soon Nvidia will catch up.

3DFX lost the lead for a reason. What sort of logic would it be for me to assume that ATI will lose its lead because 3DFX did?

...and if ATI looses the lead, they will loose it "for a reason". You completely missed my point. I didn't say that it is logical for ATI to loose thier lead because 3dfx did. My point is that it's not logical to say "why shouldn't they stay in the lead". You're making quite an assumption that ATI can't fall behind in someway. It's completley possible.

I'm not assuming that ATI will deffinately stay ahead because they are ahead now, but I see no reason to believe that Nvidia will leap back ahead.

"You" see no reason. I don't knwo what you're basing that off, but good for you...

ATI have had all of there teams free since R300 was released, so as I said they haven't be sitting on there hands. They showed a R300 with DDR2 ram a little while ago.

All teams free? where are you getting this crap. Each team is busy workingon one generation/iteration of hardware. Nvidia has 4 teams the last I heard and they aare usually working at least two generations ahead. As I said before, just becuase the geforce FX took longer to reach the market, it doesn't mean this has had a huge impact on the development shcedules of all the other development teams. This is just the reason nvidia was able to release the NV2A with some features planned for future PC chips.

Now obviously ATI wouldn't release something faster then R300 now, because it would be counter productive. But what makes you think you couldn't? I see no reason to believe that ATI couldn't release a faster R300 right now.

I see no reason to think that ATi couldl release a faster product right now. what do you think ATi was doing, having everyone working through christmas? how many months would that be between products? Not enough if you ask me.

Quincy, I've been reasonable throughout so far. Don't turn this into a nasty argument, lets keep it civil.

I AM keeping this civil. I don't think you're being reasonable if on one hand you're saying that ATI is ahead, but you don't think nvidia can catch up in some way. That's not being reasonable imo.

Its a sign that R300 is not limited to its 300mhz clock speed by its current process.

That's pure BS if you ask me. what makes you think the geforce FX will be limited to it's clock speed too? once again, it's not reasonable to think ATI has room to improve and Nvidia doesn't. IMO I think nvidia has MORE room to improve with the lower process

I don't know what Geforce FX can be clocked to, but its not important anyway. The point I believe we were discussing is wether or not R300 would need to go to a smaller process to clock higher, nothing to do with Geforce FX.

Of course it has somethign to do with it. If the Geforce FX can also be over clocked then Nvidia has room to grow. As I said before. overclocking a single card is NO way to prove that it's possible to manufacture chips at that speed that are reliable.

 

[Qroach]

Dave,

On the other hand we’ve had Kirk state that its reasonable to assume their 6 month cycle of a new part and then refresh is still in place for NV30/35 (which puts NV35 as their Summer/Fall part) and their CEO stating that development lifecycles will be slowing down.

Well, these cycels are going to slow down. they have to since it's taking longer and longer for each version of the API (the real driving force for new features IMO). I wouldn't be suprised is DX9 stuck with us for more than a year this time around.

 

[Dave Baumann]

I wouldn't be suprised is DX9 stuck with us for more than a year this time around.

It will, which is why PS/VS 3.0 is already built into DX9 when no hardware currently supports it. Its this that R400 and NV40 will most likely support.

 

[CaptainHowdy]

Well Gee, I should hope the nV30 would outpower the 9700 SIX FRIGGEN MONTHS LATER!!!!!...
ATI has a six month product cycle these days, they always have the most powerful card quite a long time before its competition, so yes, when the Xbox 2 comes into play, I would say its a pretty sure thing ATI will have the most powerful offerings, and MS will want to save money this time around and, eventually make profit off the XBox, so I believe Xbox 2 will be more well thought out with price vs performance.

 

[Dave Baumann]

MS will want to save money this time around and, eventually make profit off the XBox, so I believe Xbox 2 will be more well thought out with price vs performance.

I think price will be high on their priorities as well. Personally I think they will try and steer clear of buying full chips as they are doing at the moment, unless they can work out a more favorable way of paying for them - I'm still of the opinion that they may seek the IP licensing route.

 

[Vince]

We are talked about a part that’s 3-4 years on from NV2A, look at the step year step both ATI and NVIDIA have made in the past year with R200-R300 and NV2x-NV30 – I don’t think a few ‘optimizations’ are going to be that much of an issue.

Isn't DirectX on xbox statically linked? If so, that would make it hard to substitute in non-NV2A register compatible hardware.

Exactly, wouldn't a better parallel use OGL and say, "Why won't my game which uses OGL 1.3 and nVidia extentions automatically run on OGL2.0 hardware?"

 

[Dave Baumann]

Exactly, wouldn't a better parallel use OGL and say, "Why won't my game which uses OGL 1.3 and nVidia extentions automatically run on OGL2.0 hardware?"

And wrappers can't be written for such things?

 

[DemoCoder]

You can't write a wrapper if the library is statically linked in. You'd have to recompile the game, OR, you've have to run the game in a virtual machine, trap register writes, and use an emulation later to remap them into OGL2.0 calls. Difficult and problematic to say the least.

Another common compatibility problem is timing. Sometimes I/O within the game is balanced with the CPU and GPU without using clocks or other stable timers. When you upgrade the speed of the CPU, GPU, HD, or DVD, you throw these out of whack. That's why some PSX games won't run with PS/2 in faster-loading CD mode.

The NV30 seems to have legacy features for backwards compatbility, like post-pixel-shader register-combiners. MS might want Nvidia to carry this over into a future X-Box design. I also think it's likely that no big changes need to be made to the northbridge/southbridge, as the audio and network capabilities are already good enough for the forseeable future.

NVidia needs the X-Box Next contract and MS knows it, so to some extent, Microsoft will have them over a barrel when it comes to negotiating the price/licensing issues.

 

[Qroach]

Actaully you touched on a good point. MS right now (or soon) is going to be sending out pre xbox 2 devkits on a regular basis until the final Xbox 2 hardware is available. From what I've heard all plans for these are going to include the NV30 chip next.

 

[Legion]

wait a minute. Weren't the release dates for cards something like this:

Geforce 256
Radeon
Geforce 2
all in wonder radeon
Geforce 2 Ultra
Geforce 3
Radeon 8500
Geforce 3 Ti 500
Geforce 4 4200 - 4600
Radeon 9000 - 9700

If so how can you say that ATI generally has the most powerful card out on the market? It would seem Nvidia offers a wider variety of cards at more affordable prices.

Is ATI really doing as well as everyone thinks with the Radeon 9700? its price is quite high when compared to Geforce 4 version cards. To my knowledge the Geforce 4 cards were priced much lower on launch. I'd really like to see the sales of each unit.

 

[CaptainHowdy]

wait a minute. Weren't the release dates for cards something like this:

Geforce 256
Radeon
Geforce 2
all in wonder radeon
Geforce 2 Ultra
Geforce 3
Radeon 8500
Geforce 3 Ti 500
Geforce 4 4200 - 4600
Radeon 9000 - 9700

If so how can you say that ATI generally has the most powerful card out on the market? It would seem Nvidia offers a wider variety of cards at more affordable prices.

Is ATI really doing as well as everyone thinks with the Radeon 9700? its price is quite high when compared to Geforce 4 version cards. To my knowledge the Geforce 4 cards were priced much lower on launch. I'd really like to see the sales of each unit.

since the Radeon 8500, it compares more to a GF4 than a GF3, it was the best card when it hit shelves, then GF4 came out and topped it by as minor margin, then the 9700 came out and practically doubled the performance of the GF4 TI4600, the GFFX will come out, and beat it by a small margin, then another ass whupping from ATI, etc etc etc..

since when does GF4 win in price vs performance?

when you go under $100, your choices consist of GF4 MX(glorified GF2) or a Radeon 9000(pretty much an 8500), 9000 for $63 on pricewatch wins hands down

in the $150 range you have the GF4 TI4200 or the Radeon 9500
9500 wins hands down

in the $250-300 pricerange, you have GF 4 TI 4600 vs the Radeon 9700(can be found for $232 on pricewatch a whopping $10 over the price of the lowest TI4600 there.) Guess who wins..

I would like you to point out just where Nvidia is topping them at anything, by the time the NV30 hits the market, it will retail somewhere between $350-$450, only offer 5-10% performance over the 9700(while costing around $150-200 more), and everyone will buy it because, its Nvidia... they will use the excuse that its because Nvidias drivers(even though ATI's drivers have gotten better while Nvidias progressively worse, yes, you heard me right, the PC tech forums have been littered with complaints about the last THREE det releases, people forced to roll back 2 or 3 sets to keep stability).