iMacmatician
Regular
From MacTechNews: "Exclusive: With macOS 10.15 and 10.14.4 Apple indicates the big change of platform" (original). Apple's testing of upcoming OS versions is different this year than in most previous years.
At WWDC 2005, when the PowerPC → Intel transition was announced, Apple introduced a developer transition kit using a 3.6 GHz Pentium 4. The CPU was one of the fastest Intel desktop CPUs available at the time, with the only faster chips being the 3.8 GHz Pentium 4 and the Pentium D (in multi-threading) which were released less than two weeks before WWDC. That Pentium 4 was probably competitive with the PowerPC G5 in single-threaded performance. So if Apple releases a similar developer transition kit for an Intel → ARM transition, then I expect it to have an ARM architecture CPU that compares favorably in performance to high-end Intel CPUs of the time. (The Bloomberg report says "the transition to Apple chips in hardware is planned to begin as early as 2020." I’m not sure it that includes any developer kits, which wouldn’t be for the public.)
The high-end Apple CPU from my previous speculation post can work as the above high end ARM architecture CPU in both performance and release timeframe. I think that it's possible for this CPU to be in both the developer kit and a mass market Mac, especially if Apple plans to skip one or more generations for Mac chip upgrades. The AnX series has already omitted an A7X (the iPad Air used a faster A7) for an average rate of ~1.4 years/chip so far, and the A11X is almost certainly skipped or canceled in favor of an A12X, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Mac chips receive successors every 2 or even 3 years on average.
I think that an ARM transition will certainly be announced at a WWDC, and a developer kit presumably will not be far behind. This event has occurred yearly in June for a long time; the last non-June WWDC was in August 2006 when the original Mac Pro was announced.
When these assumptions are put together, they point to a reasonably high end Apple-designed ARM architecture CPU or SoC released around mid-2020, maybe mid-2019. We can look at the state of TSMC's process nodes in these timeframes:
Note: I write "Intel → ARM" but for the purposes of my speculation posts the destination ISA can be an ARM modification (see this Real World Tech forum post pointed out by Entropy), a different existing ISA (e.g. RISC-V), or an Apple-designed ISA (I am not saying anything about the likelihoods of these three options). In most of these cases Apple still needs to demonstrate that they can design high end desktop chips.
Apple has said that the upcoming Mac Pro will be released in 2019, and whether it is Intel or ARM, a release or at least a preview at WWDC is a good bet.MacTechNews (Google Translate) said:As early as April, MacTechNews was able to find out from very reliable sources that Apple started unusually early with intensive testing of macOS 10.15 - half a year before it was even 10.14 Mojave on the market.
[…]
Apple included two more systems in the semi-public test. As expected, the work on 10.14.1, the first bugfix update for Mojave, has already begun.
[…]
Builds of 10.14.2 and 10.14.3, however, Apple has not put into internal circulation. Instead, Apple has been focusing heavily on 10.14.4 for about a week.
There have been two cases in the past where priority was given to working on an "over-the-second" update. 15 years ago, Mac OS X 10.2.7 ushered in a 64-bit migration, as Apple had just introduced the Power Mac G5, 13 years ago it was a Tiger update with official rather than just in-lab Intel support. 10.14.4 should be pushed forward for similar reasons: Support of a developer kit or first version, which should officially get along with a new architecture.
[…]
10.14.4 could be the first version of macOS specifically designed for the all-new modular Mac Pro.
I think some possibilities can be narrowed down given the 2020 assumption.While this is delightful speculation fodder, the unknowns are legion. Assuming 2020, that is when TSMC N5 volume production is scheduled to start. So that would give us some ballpark idea about density if used. However, what would those CPU cores look like? The GPU? Other co-processors/functional blocks? The memory subsystem? The advantage for Apple is that this would be entirely up to their discretion, but it leaves an armchair speculator floundering in a sea of possibilities.
At WWDC 2005, when the PowerPC → Intel transition was announced, Apple introduced a developer transition kit using a 3.6 GHz Pentium 4. The CPU was one of the fastest Intel desktop CPUs available at the time, with the only faster chips being the 3.8 GHz Pentium 4 and the Pentium D (in multi-threading) which were released less than two weeks before WWDC. That Pentium 4 was probably competitive with the PowerPC G5 in single-threaded performance. So if Apple releases a similar developer transition kit for an Intel → ARM transition, then I expect it to have an ARM architecture CPU that compares favorably in performance to high-end Intel CPUs of the time. (The Bloomberg report says "the transition to Apple chips in hardware is planned to begin as early as 2020." I’m not sure it that includes any developer kits, which wouldn’t be for the public.)
The high-end Apple CPU from my previous speculation post can work as the above high end ARM architecture CPU in both performance and release timeframe. I think that it's possible for this CPU to be in both the developer kit and a mass market Mac, especially if Apple plans to skip one or more generations for Mac chip upgrades. The AnX series has already omitted an A7X (the iPad Air used a faster A7) for an average rate of ~1.4 years/chip so far, and the A11X is almost certainly skipped or canceled in favor of an A12X, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Mac chips receive successors every 2 or even 3 years on average.
I think that an ARM transition will certainly be announced at a WWDC, and a developer kit presumably will not be far behind. This event has occurred yearly in June for a long time; the last non-June WWDC was in August 2006 when the original Mac Pro was announced.
When these assumptions are put together, they point to a reasonably high end Apple-designed ARM architecture CPU or SoC released around mid-2020, maybe mid-2019. We can look at the state of TSMC's process nodes in these timeframes:
- WWDC 2020: TSMC 5 nm is planned for mass production in late 2019 or early 2020 which should be in time for WWDC.
- For what it’s worth, 5 nm also showed up in a sketchy rumor from CNet about an Apple VR headset targeted for 2020. This rumor does claim that "the chips used in future Macs would be similar to what Apple would use in its T288 AR/VR project."
- WWDC 2019: it is probably too early for TSMC 7 FF, but perhaps Apple could release the developer kit a few months after WWDC.
Note: I write "Intel → ARM" but for the purposes of my speculation posts the destination ISA can be an ARM modification (see this Real World Tech forum post pointed out by Entropy), a different existing ISA (e.g. RISC-V), or an Apple-designed ISA (I am not saying anything about the likelihoods of these three options). In most of these cases Apple still needs to demonstrate that they can design high end desktop chips.