Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[MrFox]

If NEW is really that important, how come the NEW Vita isn't trouncing the old 3DS? PS3 was $600 because it was brand-new, high-end hardware and a BRD player. Wuu is $300 offering about the same hardware performance as a $200 console. As mentioned, for the same price as a 32 GB Wuu, you can get a PS3 and a Vita - a smart tablet. the hardware in Wuu appears to be extremely poor value for money. The only value in Wuu really is if you like the unique (Nintendo) games.

Why would anyone with a PS360 get a Wuu? That's $300 to get virtually the same games. Either the Wuu is selling to an audience who don't have an HD console, who can surely be approached with the cheaper PS360 proposition, or it's not going to sell. I certainly can't see a mass migration of PS360 gamers to Wuu.

I regret buying my Vita, now that I finished uncharted, I'm only using it as a media player. The reason is that they treated it as a home console with home console games and ports. Sure they are great games, but nothing specifically for portable gaming. There's nothing remotely similar to pokemon on it. That's why everybody is buying the 3DS. Pokemon and other real "portable" games. The gamers who would have bought the Vita either have a PS3 like me, or have an Iphone/Android for casual games on the go. It's an amazing device but the market is shrinking.

I'm mostly a playstation gamer, but I also own every nintendo consoles from the N64 and up, despite having almost zero third party support. Once you're a fan of Super Smash Bros you can't let go. If I buy a WiiU it's a secondary console just for Nintendo first party games, it would replace my Wii, not my PS3. So $350 is a lot for that, let alone having to buy 4 controllers just for SSB. If they made a lower cost version without the tablet I'd buy it. I can't see anyone buying a WiiU to actually replace a PS3 or 360, it doesn't make any sense.

The latest aggressive comments that Reggie made against competition was tactless, and I think they know they're in trouble within 2 years. As soon as either the 720 or PS4 starts selling, the WiiU market share will drop. There's no stocking issues where I live, WiiU is in stock everywhere. When the Wii came out it was absolutely impossible to get one until March.

 

[liolio]

shipping data should be quite reliable and accurate. more or less it is a true worldwide sales number.

the only major caveat is that it can lag actual sales by up to months. but in the long run that evens out.

certainly it's true a 2m difference on two 70m consoles is irrelevant. especially since conceviably rrod could make the number of working ps3's greater than working 360's.

of greater practical concern might be that 8-10m ps3's are in japan, where they for the most part dont buy western software, and conversely buy more japanese software. but are effectively removed from the western ecosystem.

Well I would be wary, not that they can be that much off but still.
As an example, look at the inventory write off AMD made on the Llano. Do you think that they did not knew that those chips were not selling? Still they continue production, the only sane reason to do so is trumping the investors and market (and that pretty short term), ultimately it comes back to hunt you... with a vengeance.

 

[TheLump]

Why would anyone with a PS360 get a Wuu? That's $300 to get virtually the same games. Either the Wuu is selling to an audience who don't have an HD console, who can surely be approached with the cheaper PS360 proposition, or it's not going to sell. I certainly can't see a mass migration of PS360 gamers to Wuu.

(I couldn't resist this) Or me! I've got one coming tomorrow hopefully (two actually, I got the basic model risiculously cheap and am selling it on, with no real markup cos I'm nice like that ) and I own (and love) PS3.

PS3 occupies 99% of my console gaming, my PC occupies most of my gaming overall, and an iPad covers my "casual" fix. I still wanted a WiiU though for several reasons:

1) It's something different. I like gadgets and innovative ideas, the gamepad idea seems pretty cool so it got me interested. looked fun to play with family (I have some visiting in the next month or so)
2) I've owned every console Nintendo have made. No, I'm not a Nintendo die-hard nut or anything (although I may seem that way...); I've had PSOne, 2 & 3 aswell, XBox and a Mega Drive back in the day. I'll by anything if I can afford it!
3) I can buy it VAT free where I live, so maybe the price doesn't seem that big of a deal to me?

I think you are still correct though, to an extent. Most PS360 owners, unless they have the spare cash, aren't going to invest in another console just for the 'Pad experience. Not becuase its not worth it (imo it is) but because there's no killer app yet to show it off. Sure, there are novel ideas and if you've got an imagination you can see the massive potential there - but that doesn't sell it to the masses (Not at the £250-£300 price point anyway) Clear and concise marketing is what sells to the masses and so far Nintendo have utterly failed on that front.

I've seen a WiiU advert twice in the last month. We are now 1 day from launch.

They only have a limited amount of time to rectify poor marketing before it is irreversible. If this happens, and if they dont get that "killer app" in the public eye the console wont fail, but it won't be as much of a success as it could have been.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yes, but I believe you're a niche. The tablet's appeal doesn't appear to be very strong, regardless of marketing - you can't sell a product en masse without it resonating. The console will still sell to those who want to give it a go, and the Nintendo fans, but to win next-gen the console needs to sell a minimum of...80 million units. Where is that 80 million going to come from? Existing PS360 owners, Wii owners, or non-console owners. Existing PS360 owners aren't going to upgrade, we can be confident of. Wii owners seem unlikely to upgrade much more to Wuu than PS360 as the experiences are very similar, but you never know. Non-console owners seem just as likely to go PS360 as Wuu IMO.

 

[Arwin]

One question is how strong the Wii and its games established itself as a brand based on the widespread success of the Wii, and how strong the crossover is going to be with the 3DS. The two consoles haven't been as aligned as they are now for a long time - the Wii U could in theory run all 3DS games exactly like the 3DS does. If they make that so that one online purchase allows you to play the 3DS game on both 3DS and Wii U, that would be a nice bonus.

 

[Prophecy2k]

I see no reason to assume that. As long as XB360 is turning a profit, MS will support it. Kinect has done wonders for the platform and seen far better support from MS than Move has from Sony. Maybe Sony will do more in the wider markets than MS given current experience with PS2 (we've had a knowledgeable fella on this board tell us that Sony's worldwide market is in more territories than MS; can't remember his name or the post though) but that's still a premature assessment.

Nathan's Fortune I think it was. And I agree with him. Sony will continue to sell PS3's in more territories than MS long after the xbox 360 dies its inevitable sales death.

The PS3 is relevant in many more regions, and lets not forget that Sony just got cleared to sell the PS3 in China, a potentially huge market, which no console has ever done before. I can certainly see the PS3 outselling the 360 in the long term for a long time, and Sony supporting the PS3 long after MS stops supporting the 360 and refocusses on it's successor. It's simply a matter of time and distribution, and of the latter Sony has the clear advantage.

 

[MrFox]

If the bar for success is 80 million for 720/ps4, I would say the bar would be at 40 million for nintendo, because they make money out of each console from the start, and also because the games production budgets will be same or lower than current gen, while 720/ps4 are expected to double the production costs, they need twice the user base.

They wouldn't "win", but it's nothing like a dreamcast situation...

 

[eastmen]

According to Major Nelson, MS sold 750k xbox360's in the same timeframe
http://majornelson.com/2012/11/27/xbox-360-black-friday-report/

I can't see the WiiU having much chance of success once MS and Sony unveils ther next-gen consoles. And as many other have said, the hardware seems to weak, the WiiU pad don't look to have the same obvious draw as the original Wii motion control and IMO the price for the WiiU is to high when compared to the current offerings of the competition..

whats a 7 year old console have to do with a freshly launched system ? The wii u sold all they could produce in the states. That's a good thing .

 

[NRP]

What is this preoccupation with "winning"? And what does it mean to "win"? Console sales? Software sales? Higher profitability? What?

 

[AlNom]

Popularity contest?

 

[MrFox]

World peace.
Once a winner is declared and universally agreed upon. We achieve world peace until the next console war.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What is this preoccupation with "winning"? And what does it mean to "win"? Console sales? Software sales? Higher profitability? What?

Human beings obsess about competition. Sports, games, online multiplayer, at work, amoung the family, etc. Forever comparing and competing.

 

[Exophase]

I would expect that the market share distribution among the console makers has a big bearing on the direction games will take. Console capabilities are a big driver in the type of games we get.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yeah, but you don't need to 'win'. PS3 and XB360 are viable platforms. Arguing over who outsells the other by a few percent by generation's end really doesn't achieve anything outside of the entertainment of the discussion.

 

[Exophase]

Yeah, but you don't need to 'win'. PS3 and XB360 are viable platforms. Arguing over who outsells the other by a few percent by generation's end really doesn't achieve anything outside of the entertainment of the discussion.

Yeah, no doubt about this. However, one console does often have a major lead over the rest. At this point Wii's cumulative sales aren't much higher than either of the other two consoles but the commanding lead it had during the first few years had to have had a big impact on what third parties were developing; same with Sony's massive lead with PS1 and PS2. Nit-picking about who sales the most is probably not that constructive but speculation over who, if anybody, could dominate the generation could be. Similarly, speculation over who could end up bombing.

 

[BoardBonobo]

The U has been hacked already, allegedly, by a hacker called marcan42!?

CPU Speed: 1.243125GHz 3 x Core PPC750 type similar to broadway but more cache
GPU Speed: 549.999755MHz

Src

vgchartz I know... But sometimes you've got to take one for the team

 

[DuckThor Evil]

^ This is now only the fourth thread at B3D where that info is posted.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I agree that identifying a dominant party for a generation makes some sense for consumers, investors, developers, etc. I doubt there can be any sane attempt at that before the first two years of all platforms is up though and how the public responds is known. Certainly it can't be done with a knowledge of the business strategies (price point, features, sales options, etc.). I'm also unsure if there can be a PS1/PS2 style domination again. Technology has converged, there's less opportunity to differentiate, and there are potentially more players breaking up the market into smaller pieces. We've had three runaway winners over 40 years of gaming - NES, PS1 and PS2. There were opportunities with each of them for the company to clean up. This gen, had Nintendo released a proper next-gen hardware console comparable to PS360 and injected it with waggle, maybe they'd have pulled a Sony and ushered something absolutely revolutionary for everyone. But instead they gimped on the hardware and halved their appeal. Had Sony invested in EyeToy and launched a machine with far better support for the casuals, maybe they'd have attracted a lot of customers away from Wii? If MS launch with an amazing new Kinect experience, maybe they'll be able to have that cutting-edge, unique, universal appeal that is needed for market domination? That's looking unlikely. It's more like any other market, with several viable players all offering a different value proposition, and customers having a choice to make. Throw in Apple and friends, and eventually a move away from fixed consoles anyhow, and the possibility of someone completely cleaning up seems very unlikely without something completely new (games beamed direct into people's heads. Or my Grand Vision of the tablet console).

Whoever wins the next gen console race (and this one for that) will win something like a UK election victory. Yeah, more people wanted them over either alternative, but more people didn't want the winner than did. Getting into office with only ~20% of the population thinking you're any good is hardly reason to celebrate. The companies don't care, other than bragging rights for marketing purposes. They're in it for the money.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

^ This is now only the fourth thread at B3D where that info is posted.

Wii U is causing sprawl. Might have to do some consolidating (read 'closing and banning people' ) of threads.

 

[ninzel]

What happens if ps4/720 game prices rise by $10 like this gen and Wiiu prices stay at current gen levels ?