Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

Will Wii U be the best selling console over MS and Sony's offerings?


  • Total voters
    152
  • Poll closed .
Shifty,
You know, that's a very interesting line of reasoning... If Renseas is really closing down the foundry that's fabbing Latte, then you'd expect Nintendo to want to get in a last-ditch order of chips, since you very likely wouldn't be able to transplant the current design to another fab, and even if you could there'd be startup delays, there would have to be available wafer starts at the fab and so on. Plus it takes what, three months plus from start of production until finished dies plop out the other end. That's significant lead-time.

...Except now, wuu sales are so friggin abysmal that any additional chips Nintendo orders run the risk of being money flushed straight down the drain. Except, what the hell else can they possibly do?! They couldn't release a wuu successor within the next two years or more anyway even if they wanted to so they must have SOMEthing to sell; they don't have a superior hardware design ready (unless they're mad and developed multiple platforms and then deliberately went with the weak-ass variety), they don't have a software development ecosystem for an updated system either, and most importantly they don't have any games for anything other than wuu in the pipe either of course.

So the board knows this, and the stockholders know this also - or if they don't yet they will soon. It's a debacle all around.

Iwata may well end up getting fired soon.
 
I think abandoning the product now would be very damaging to their brand and difficult to recover from. Maybe work hard on a successor now and plan to roll it out in 2015 instead of 2018 (or whatever) but first cancelling in 2013 or even 2014 would be pretty dire.

Nintendo probably has enough money to weather this if they really want to, although I suppose that'd just destroy their position with investors instead.
 
Except, what the hell else can they possibly do?!
If running Wii U is a loss with little likelihood of turning it around, does it make sense for Nintendo? Maybe to preserve reputation, and they can afford to. Sony's loss-leading products have been with decent sales that could eventually recoup (something) from the software. MS's loss making efforts were to establish a foothold. The incentive to start up Wii U production again would either have to be in the belief they can turn around its fortunes, or just to support their fans. Without an active home-console though, Nintendo will have developers sitting on their hands with nothing to do.

It definitely seems a pickle.
 
If running Wii U is a loss with little likelihood of turning it around, does it make sense for Nintendo? Maybe to preserve reputation
Yes, this, without a doubt. If they were to pull out of the home console market for several years they'd never get back into it again. Devs would lose what faith remains with the company.
 
If they continue to operate a console that doesn't sell, are devs going to be any more enthusiastic for a new console than if Ninty stop? I suppose there's lots they can do with Wii U to develop services and OS level stuff; use it more as a learning opportunity than a profitable enterprise.
 
I wonder if Nintendo is looking into migrating to a full SoC solution, manufactured by IBM. IBM can handle the eDRAM, as evidenced by the CPU chip. And if they can't agree to low volumes for a 150-200mm^2 then I don't see how they'll continue agreeing to the same volumes for a miniscule 33mm^2 chip.

This way there would at least be some long term cost savings, and probably better likelihood of actually being able to shrink it in the future.
 
I think abandoning the product now would be very damaging to their brand and difficult to recover from. Maybe work hard on a successor now and plan to roll it out in 2015 instead of 2018 (or whatever) but first cancelling in 2013 or even 2014 would be pretty dire.

Nintendo probably has enough money to weather this if they really want to, although I suppose that'd just destroy their position with investors instead.

To release as successor of the WiiU in 2015 Ninty would have to start R&D now which pretty much means to abandon the WiiU.
No dev would waste his time and money on a soon to be replace consoled that is already not profitable.
I also doubt Ninty is willing to let go the WiiU in 2-3 years.
They in my opinion will try to save it even if it's objectively a lost cause simply because they can afford to loose money.
I know it's not a sensible business decision but neither releasing WiiU with those specs with that price and that software line-up is a sensible decision so Ninty might just be "foolish" enough to do it.

Also even if they release WiiU 2 in 2-3 years it would not be able to compete with PS4 and XBO in therms of software lineup and when WiiU 2 will be in its 2/3rd year of life the PS5 and Xbox Whatever will be be released and the cycle will repeat itself once more: players will move on to greener pastures and Ninty will be left behind AGAIN.

Ninty might decide to simultaneously release WiiU 2 with PS5 and Xbox Whatever though but this means to leave PS 4 and XBO take over the market for themselves this incoming gen.
It would then be incredibly hard for Nity to win back its position in the market.

Becoming a third party publisher/developer would IMO the best chose for Ninty, they might not see it now but they could see it it in 2 years when WiiU sale will be abysmally poor.
 
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Becoming a third party publisher/developer would IMO the best chose for Ninty, they might not see it now but they could see it it in 2 years when WiiU sale will be abysmally poor.

I love how people keep repeating this when they have next to zero insight into Nintendo's business. Yes going third party would mean they probably sell more software however on each unit they sell they will be making far less money than they do now plus they won't have the benefit of having their own eco system. As long as they're not losing insane amounts of money there isn't much to worry about (yet).

Nintendo will just have to ride this one out. They can't pull the console, not if they ever want to release another home console so they will have to stick with what they got.

There are really only two things they need to do.

1. Give people a reason to buy a wii u. This means lots of good games. It's Nintendo we're talking about so making quality games shouldn't be the problem.

2. Cut the price by atleast 100 dollars/euro. 350 is just too high. Now this might be harder to do. Maybe the should accept selling the console at a loss. They can probably assume that each console will sell atleast 2 - 3 games. Right now I think it's important to start selling more units so that the console is perceived dead by the public.
 
I think Nintendo will see if their best-selling 1st party titles (Wii Fit U, Wii Party U, Super Mario 3D World) coming in Q3/Q4 2013 will change the picture during the next holiday season. This will probably come along with a price drop and some tempting bundles.

In case it doesn't, they will have to change their strategy somehow, because they can't keep pretending to be "confidant" about the console's success.
Maybe the Wii U can still become profitable if they stop the worldwide distribution and focus on USA and Japan only?

But until Q1-2014, I'm pretty sure they will keep shouting words of confidence on the console and its long-term success. This is logical, they don't want to pull a Stephen Elop.


One thing's for sure, if the console keeps crashing throughout 2014, then not even the board of directors' stubbornness/stupidity will stop the enraged investors from firing Iwata and forcing a complete turnaround in the company (i.e.: turning it into a 3rd party software developer/publisher).



Regarding a follow up, I still think the Wii U's first concept is nothing short of spectacular:

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Up to four controllers with 960*540 screens, word of RV770 levels of performance for a 2012 console and "faster than X360 CPU". This would have been a competent cross-generation console.

But then they probably started cutting corners everywhere thinking the screen in the controller alone would get them Wii-like levels of success.
From four qFHD screens they went to a single WVGA screen with a resistive panel, a GPU with a quarter of the performance of a RV770, a tiny CPU based on a 15-year-old architecture that seemingly shares the same performance as a mid-range smartphone and a puny memory bandwidth to match.
Out of greed and sheer stupidity, they ended up with a hardware that would have to be released in 2010 for the developers and most customers to even bother.


What I think it could work is the console that was presented in those slides but with updated specs.
I don't think they would suffer from developer backlash if they went with an AMD x86 APU with 8GB of unified memory.



Then again, by the time a new console is ready, the world+dog will already have a ps4...
 
Nintendo should really buy Sega. Sell the western parts and use Sega to produce core and kiddy games.
 
I love how people keep repeating this when they have next to zero insight into Nintendo's business. Yes going third party would mean they probably sell more software however on each unit they sell they will be making far less money than they do now plus they won't have the benefit of having their own eco system. As long as they're not losing insane amounts of money there isn't much to worry about (yet).

At least as third party dev they would make money but now Ninty is not making money with WiiU (they are selling at loos) and the software sales are embarrassingly poor.

There are really only two things they need to do.

1. Give people a reason to buy a wii u. This means lots of good games. It's Nintendo we're talking about so making quality games shouldn't be the problem.

You are talking as if making good/quality games was easy not to mention that quality doesn't guarantee sales...also good/quality is not exactly objective.
In fact as WiiU software sales proves Ninty so called quality game sell poorly.
Also no console can survive only with first party titles and third party devs are abandoning WiiU.

2. Cut the price by atleast 100 dollars/euro. 350 is just too high. Now this might be harder to do. Maybe the should accept selling the console at a loss. They can probably assume that each console will sell atleast 2 - 3 games. Right now I think it's important to start selling more units so that the console is perceived dead by the public.

In the UK the WiiU price was cut at and it sold just as poorly.
Amazon sold around 700 units more than the previous week with the price cut.

Price cut doesn't solve the problem of the poor specs and poor services.
Why should I buy a 8Gb WiiU for £149 when PS3 Slim 12Gb costs the same has more storage capacity, more games, better services, better online and it's a Blu-ray palyer?
The Xbox 360 cost £159 and has 250Gb of HDD, has better software line up, better online and better services as well.

WiiU is maybe, maybe is good only for exclusive but really I will never, ever spend £149 to play literally a handful of games.
 
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Bethesda no support for Wii U...

"It's largely a hardware thing," Bethesda's marketing exec Pete Hines explained to Joystiq. "[We] make the games that we want to make, on whatever platforms will support them as developed. "None of the games we've announced are being developed for the Wii U, so it's guaranteed that none of those games are coming to Wii U."

Edit: i found out I guess this is kinda a new interview but Bethesda's position is old news.
 
But how much would you pay to play that handful of games?

Games are a passion for me so I would not invest in a console that gives me very little to begin with...even if reasonably priced.
For instance I have a Game Cube but I fundamentally ended up playing 3 games.
With WiiU I would end up in a similar situation and spend £149 to play 3-4 games, at best.
To me it would not be a good investment.
 
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I'm glad we finally have evidence that a price cut doesn't matter on a gaming system if there are no games worth playing. Shocker.
 
I'm glad we finally have evidence that a price cut doesn't matter on a gaming system if there are no games worth playing. Shocker.


A substantially lower price would have made a large difference until the announcement of the new-gens.
Right now, the situation is completely out of control and I think only a miracle would save the console (especially if Nintendo insists with spending big on worldwide distribution and volumes).

If very few customers and 3rd party developers cared about the Wii U so far, the situation is probably going to be ominous to Nintendo when the other systems are out.
 
Pach mentions at the end (if I heard correctly, he tends to mumble sometimes and the irritating nintendo bossanova soundtrack distracted me :LOL:) that wuu is tracking for 6M sales this year. I would probably consider nintendo supremely lucky if they sell even that many TBH.
 
6M Wii Us in 2013?

I wonder if Pachter saw all the news about 160k units for Q2..
 
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Pach mentions at the end (if I heard correctly, he tends to mumble sometimes and the irritating nintendo bossanova soundtrack distracted me :LOL:) that wuu is tracking for 6M sales this year. I would probably consider nintendo supremely lucky if they sell even that many TBH.

exactly. their end user sales are probably 300-400k/month during these slow times (one quarter at 160k already in the books, too be fair ongoing sales probably more like 300-400k/quarter right now)

so that's counting on one damn big calender q4...that's really counting on big titles and maybe a price drop?

and remember, nintendo's forecast is 9m, not 6...
 
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