The other important thing is I don't know what they can add besides hard drive space to create a higher tier SKU. This isn't 2005-6, you can't try and sell a console without WiFi anymore without being laughed at. And if games have to be installed, having anemicly small hard drives will be ridiculed. And what has to be really scary is that because both consoles are coming out at the same time, they will be DIRECTLY compared. So if Microsoft tries to pull another proprietary hard drive on us, that's one more point for Sony. Even though we have Xbox Live and PSN, I still think the network effect resets to some extent, especially if one company pulls some BS on uses (see always-on threads on neogaf).
Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?
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The other important thing is I don't know what they can add besides hard drive space to create a higher tier SKU. This isn't 2005-6, you can't try and sell a console without WiFi anymore without being laughed at. And if games have to be installed, having anemicly small hard drives will be ridiculed. And what has to be really scary is that because both consoles are coming out at the same time, they will be DIRECTLY compared. So if Microsoft tries to pull another proprietary hard drive on us, that's one more point for Sony. Even though we have Xbox Live and PSN, I still think the network effect resets to some extent, especially if one company pulls some BS on uses (see always-on threads on neogaf).
Why 350-400mm^2? 8 Jaguar cores + L2 and interconnects is probably under 50mm^2, Pitcairn is 212mm^2, and that has two more CUs than PS4's APU. Trade off some other stuff, but I suspect it'll still be < 300mm^2. Not sure about Durango since I don't really know what that eSRAM takes but I bet it ends up < 300mm^2 too. I don't think it's going to have a southbridge chip, or an ethernet chip for that matter, there's a good chance they'll integrate it all into the same SoC.
I don't think they'll pay a big premium for fast DDR3 either. There could however be a problem of DDR3 prices having gone up a lot in general, hopefully that doesn't impact MS's BOM costs a lot..
We are getting further and further OT.
For the die size I don't know, I did not checked again the guesstimate around, I guess I let my self influenced by the one that post the 400-500mm^2 figure.
Bonaire is 160mm^2 with the IO (though a 128 bit bus) I guess below 300mm^2 could be possible.
PS I think we should really stop with the OT and let it as it is.
NPD numbers should be out within a week (assuming we get enough to estimate because I'd bet on them not releasing direct values). We should be able to make a good guess. I think they were off that pace, but january returns may have polluted the numbers. We'll see.
They've cut that number to 4 million: http://www.itworld.com/personal-tec...ii-u-sales-forecasts-period-ending-march-2013
Considering they sold maybe 3.5 million by the end of 2012, 500,000 in a quarter is... well, lets just wait for next week.
Looking for numbers for something else, I came across this and remembered this discussion. There were some who felt predictions of poor sales were premature.
April 24th:
So Nintendo appear to have sold no WiiU's in 3 months. Or the end-of-2012 figures were an overestimate. Either way, now it's completely obvious why companies like EA are dropping the platform; it seems to have stagnated, and the high launch sales haven't been followed with any momentum, which in turn decreases interest in the platform and drags on sales.
Nintendo need to do something drastic. A couple of good games isn't going to be enough to re-energise interest on a large scale.
April 24th:
So Nintendo appear to have sold no WiiU's in 3 months. Or the end-of-2012 figures were an overestimate. Either way, now it's completely obvious why companies like EA are dropping the platform; it seems to have stagnated, and the high launch sales haven't been followed with any momentum, which in turn decreases interest in the platform and drags on sales.
Nintendo need to do something drastic. A couple of good games isn't going to be enough to re-energise interest on a large scale.
I agree with you but what can they do?
A price cut might help but I doubt they can afford it given that they are already selling at loss.
Third-party developers are not interested in WiiU, and rightfully so.
First party tiles are few and far between...Nintendo doesn't even have the power of the cloud at his disposal
How many units did WiiU sell in the last 3 months anyway?.
Did they finally arrive at 5 million?
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Their console is very season sensitive. So whatever they do, they should probably concentrate on doing so at the end of the year. There's a risk they get snowed under with the new consoles releasing, but they will have availabilty, and should really focus much more strongly on the 'play with your kids' aspect of the console.
Above all, I feel that the Wii U is far too expensive. This is what is holding me back the most. At that price, I'd rather buy my kid a regular tablet. And that's the major issue they have right now I suspect - not competition from other consoles, but from tablets. More and more kids here get their own 7" tablet, from the age of 6 and up already. And these can be brought along anywhere, not just work at home. Personally, as a parent, I feel that it is probably worth it to get my son a Nintendo device rather than, say, an Android tablet. More depth, more fun, better controls. But they really need to show that Nintendo is a far better 'toy' than an Android tablet. It can be done - just make sure you get some really good educational titles as well as keeping up the kid-friendly titles, and they can still do well. But don't ask parents to pony up more than 249 euro - and that should really be a 32GB model to be honest.
Cheapest I can get a (basic model!) Wii U for right now seems to be 330,-
EDIT: found a temporary offer for a Wii U Premium at 300 euro, next best offer is 349.
Above all, I feel that the Wii U is far too expensive. This is what is holding me back the most. At that price, I'd rather buy my kid a regular tablet. And that's the major issue they have right now I suspect - not competition from other consoles, but from tablets. More and more kids here get their own 7" tablet, from the age of 6 and up already. And these can be brought along anywhere, not just work at home. Personally, as a parent, I feel that it is probably worth it to get my son a Nintendo device rather than, say, an Android tablet. More depth, more fun, better controls. But they really need to show that Nintendo is a far better 'toy' than an Android tablet. It can be done - just make sure you get some really good educational titles as well as keeping up the kid-friendly titles, and they can still do well. But don't ask parents to pony up more than 249 euro - and that should really be a 32GB model to be honest.
Cheapest I can get a (basic model!) Wii U for right now seems to be 330,-
EDIT: found a temporary offer for a Wii U Premium at 300 euro, next best offer is 349.
Yeah, they reported shipping .39 million Wii U's the last (Jan-Mar) quarter IIRC.
So, 390,000. The lowest figure I recall any main console shipping that wasn't basically EOL.
For comparison in worst summer doldrums 360 usually ships like 1.3m in a quarter.
You can just add up their main territory sales too for an idea.
Japan: Last I looked I think 5-6k per week. Say 25k/month.
USA: I think around 40k/month recent NPD's.
Europe: Somebody on GAF probably broke down the last Nintendo graphs for a better idea, but i know anecdotaly Wii U seems to do significantly worse in the EU relative to USA. So, being generous perhaps 30k/month.
So you're at ~100k/month. Add in some fudge/trailing numbers and you see 390k for 3 months is about right if not a little high.
Nintendo needs to start paying third-parties to port titles to wuu. It's not as if they can't afford it or anything, they are loaded like Uncle Pennybags over there in Kyoto, but stingier with their money than friggin Scrooge McDuck...
Devs wouldn't hesitate if they knew Nintendo would take the hit if a title bombs, but if there aren't titles the whole console will bomb. You gotta spend money to make money, and all of that...
Someone linked an article noting that the Wii U sold 1.8 million in the first 4 months, which is almost as much as the Wii's first four weeks and at least double the numbers for the PS360.
Of course it hasn't sustained that rate at all.
Same fate could hit the other consoles, great off the start then running out of gas quickly.
Of course it hasn't sustained that rate at all.
Same fate could hit the other consoles, great off the start then running out of gas quickly.
Could, yes, but with great software lined up the chance of that happening is unlikely. Also, mindshare is different, wii got caught in a casual party/kiddie-game and wii sports/workout-game fad rut, and when the fad faded the wii balloon went poof. Wuu built upon that, which means it built on shit, and now the castle's sinking because it got shit for a foundation.
Maybe if nintendo builds another castle on top of the sunken castle, and then another castle on top of that when it too sinks, perhaps they can have something...as long as a mad Sir Lancelot doesn't show up and slay their whole wedding party.
Maybe if nintendo builds another castle on top of the sunken castle, and then another castle on top of that when it too sinks, perhaps they can have something...as long as a mad Sir Lancelot doesn't show up and slay their whole wedding party.
But even if there are, who's gonna buy a Wii U for games they can get on the existing or cheaper PS360? Which also play movies, and have extensive retro libraries? Wii U cannot compete toe-to-toe with PS360. the only hope IMO is amazing exclusive games that are unique to the platform. I don't see that happening.
Very unlikely. They are conventional consoles selling to the existing, mature, established gaming sector - a sector that's a good 150 million strong minimum. Wii U isn't eating into that, meaning 150 million console gamers for MS and Sony to fight over. The existing market isn't going to drop console gaming for PCs or phones just yet.
What's happened to Wii U can't be argued away as 'just the way the market is these days." It was Nintendo's choices and execution that has left Wii U struggling for survival. Had Nintendo gone with a real next-gen machine regards hardware, and a decent software library, and an OS that was finished, we'd likely have a different story here.
You'd think that the wuu version would have wuuified extra features, like *cough* the cancelled Colonial Marines, or hopefully not cancelled Deus Ex HR. Also, nintendo could of course fund 3rd parties to develop exclusive games too, I totally don't see why that could not be realistic. If MS or sony can do it, so could nintendo.
...Except they don't, because they got shit for brains over there in their HQ.
Johnny Awesome
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Nintendo should go software only. MS should buy Nintendo. It would fit perfectly into their Kinect plans.
$15 billion is a lot though.
$15 billion is a lot though.
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We also haven't seen the desirably PS3/360 SKUs with large hard drives (360 Arcade doesn't count in my eyes) drop below $270. Imagine when those finally hit $199 when the Wii U is still at $300, even for the Deluxe Edition.
Nintendo bet so right for the Wii, but so wrong for the Wii U.
Still, the fundamental problem is this: what is the Wii U tablet good for? It's similar to the Nintendo DS having 2 screens with a touchscreen and stylus and the general public was like "huh?" until games like Nintendogs and Brain Age were released which is when the DS really set on fire.
Nintendo bet so right for the Wii, but so wrong for the Wii U.
Still, the fundamental problem is this: what is the Wii U tablet good for? It's similar to the Nintendo DS having 2 screens with a touchscreen and stylus and the general public was like "huh?" until games like Nintendogs and Brain Age were released which is when the DS really set on fire.
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