I tried to do the same for the 360.
If Ms were about to do a 360 now with the same transistor budget, they would likely use a HD4550 derivated part.
Here two links to reviews of this card:
http://www.pcper.com/article.php?aid=628&type=expert
http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3420
The comparison is interesting as both parts are close in transistor budget (I don't count memory).
The HD4550 is made out of 242 millions transistors.
The xenos is made out of 232 millions transistors + 70 millions on the daughter die.
Xenos is slighty bigger (~15%) the HD4550 is clocked higher (~20%).
On top of that the HD4550 is likely to spend some transistorstors on its pretty advance media accelerator (don't remember the exact name).
Overall it think that it's fair to estimate that the only difference between both part is design and that's design that would decide the perf behaviour.