Johnny Awesome
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That depends on how much money they make. 
Amazon Video Games Poll
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I still don't know if all this internet banter will really matter at all. We see cases of if every day today with little real world effect. Not just on consoles, take Adobe for example They recently switched to being cloud only for future releases of their software and people went nuts on the video forums, countless people saying they will switch from Adobe to (insert competing product here), over and over again. Sound familiar? The vitriol looked exactly like the xb1 situation we see here with countless people professing on a daily basis their intent to not buy it and switch to another product. Then out comes an article like this:
http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/18/adobe-q2-2013-earnings/
...and low and behold wouldn't you know it, Adobe already has 700k paying cloud subscribers. If you went by all the hate on the forums you'd think Adobe would be bankrupt overnight from everyone abandoning it. I mean it was clearly Fact (tm) Confirmed (tm) that No One (tm) would go along with their cloud idea and that it was game over for Adobe. Yet once again, as has happened so many times before, the internet 1%'ers were shown up for being just that, a very vocal minority on the wrong side of the tech curve.
Big difference being that Adobe is a professional product used by professionals for their jobs/careers which tie into other jobs/careers that are also reliant on Adobe products.
Long story short, just like there aren't any real alternatives to Windows for the workstation market, same goes for Adobe in the creative market.
VERY different story on the games scene. Especially given the fact that neither is offering BC. There are no ties to either platform which make it easier than ever to switch.
That doesn't matter in this case because my point was that the internet reaction was identical, that of forums flooded with "I'm leaving Adobe" posts, over and over again ad nausea which in the end had no effect in the real world.
There are more options in that world than there at in the games scene. Instead of Premiere Pro you can switch to Avid, Edius, Vegas, Final Cut, etc, there's lots of options, you don't have to go with what Adobe offers unless your employer demands that you use a particular piece of software in which case they would be paying for it anyways so no need to complain about it on a forum.
Friends lists (among other things) are a strong tie to a console. Do you really think people will totally abandon their friends list to change consoles? On the internet yes everyone abandons everything at the drop of a hat. In the real world I'm skeptical because I've seen this type of reaction countless times before to no real world effect.
As there's not a strong tie with the XB360 community, the friend list issue isn't so strong. Your friends on Live aren't going to be chatting to you as you play on XB1, or playing the same games with you, such that your relationship is effectively over unless they buy the same console. And that's no different to if you buy a PS4 and can't chat or play with them unless they buy a PS4 too.
You'll likely be 1/2. Xbox One will have shortages the first 90-120 days. PS4 will ship more. Xbox One may slow down because of its price and broadband strategy. In its target market, nearly 1/3 has broadband access but does not subscribe for service. Income inequality is high with new iterations of tablets and smartphones taking up luxury money and drawing attention of their target audience. In addition, low cost options are gaining traction. Therefore, their current price point is an issue because they are no longer competing with the generic $500 tablet. They're going to simultaneously appear too slow with the Xbox and too radical similar to the surface line. Moreover, next gen consoles will have trouble consistently outselling the PS3/360. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it was a back and forth like we saw with the PS2.
To your broader point there was an article earlier today that XB1 was back in first place on Amazon as the best seller. (Sorry for stealing your thunder Ranger....)
Not even all your Skype friends?
Except that aren't many of these friends actually members on the same teams that play MP together? That is why I called it the Xbox Live multiplier effect because once the team makes a decision 3 or 4 other people will go the same way.
Well that has little to do with increased sales. It is pitted against five PS4 SKUs and a sixth that went out of stock. The 2013 cumulative console sales lists shows the XB1 far behind the one PS4 SKU.
rockaman
Regular
Was going to post something similar to this, but it's already been done better. Very nice post.
It's probably not a good idea to bet against the internet, even in random polls. There is always potential for error and selection bias, but this is sometimes minimized in volume. There were more than 40,000 responses to the Facebook (?) poll, which is an amazing amount for any poll or study (which usually depends on anywhere from 200 to 2000 participants).
If the proportion of votes were more even, I'd be more inclined to say it probably doesn't matter, but I'd be even more inclined to say that users broadly are liking both consoles equally as much. I'd still think it was relatively reliable for an internet poll, especially with 40,000 responses.
However, when a poll reflects a 95% favouring of one side, and another poll in another area gives 75% favouring to the same side (CVG), and another twitter contest repeats a roughly 85% favouring of the same side, it starts to become a lot less random and a lot more reliable.
Will this be externally valid, in 5 months when both consoles are on the market?
It's very possible, but not set in stone. It depends on what changes in five months, but I would say these internet voting numbers have high external validity for the current market today.
I just wouldn't bet against all polls, especially polls which have been repeated elsewhere on the web with similar results. Internet search counters and poll results have been very effective in tracking voting turnout, voting proportions, and even things like influenza migration around the USA. I would not at all dismiss polls like these today, especially ones which have been repeated around the web with similar results.
That's different to XBLive friends that you mentioned earlier. Bringing a Skype list over, well, as Skypes available on other devices too I'm not sure it's a massive draw. It has value, but I'm not seeing every Skype user compelled to get XB1 over PS4 because it has Skype built in. I don't think Skype support categorically trumps the price and performance and DRM and blah blah that potential buyers will be considering. I don't think XB1 can rely on existing social networks (Live or Skype) to ensure everyone sticks to the platform.
Sure, but that decision doesn't have to be tied to the old platform, does it? They can just as easily choose to pick PS4, after spending the few months prior to upgrading talking about what console offers the best experience and value for them.
For the XBLive friends list I'd prefer to wait and see what they do. PR people tend to get things wrong, and the internet so far seems to accuse Microsoft of everything anyways, like Microsoft didn't categorically state that the XB1 doesn't eat babies, therefore xb1 likely eats babies FACT until Microsoft confirms otherwise. Unfortunately the internet on this matter has imploded into imbecility so I'd prefer to wait and see what actually happens as things get clearer closer to launch.
djskribbles
Legend
Including the launch PS4 (which is sold out), there's 6 PS4 skus, 5 of them are in the top 10. The only one that's not is the knack bundle, which is sitting at 38th.
Bagel seed
Veteran
Another point of data. Pay more mind to the comparisons of PS4 and Xbox over time rather than against each other. PS4 actually surpassed its Feb reveal while Xbox waned in search volume after E3.
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=ps4, xbox one&date=1/2013 12m&cmpt=q
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=ps4, xbox one&date=1/2013 12m&cmpt=q
Perhaps but with repeats like Halo and up and coming titles like Titanfall arriving there first its reasonable to think many will stay with XB1. Sony should have tried to get a timed exclusive with Destiny.
I think Shifty is right. MS has gave up a lot this coming gen. There isn't much other than Halo & bunch of exclusives that might retain existing Xbox users. Kind of boneheaded that the only thing you retain going from 360 to XB1 is Gamerscore. Even if the Friends list comes over, it doesn't sound like you can communicate via Game or Party chat. You might be able to see them online & send text messages, but is that enough to convince 360 users to upgrade to XB1? I don't think so. Microsoft should have been diligent in making sure there was more interoperability between both systems. Since they haven't they have basically made it easier for their users to convert to the competition.
Tommy McClain
Perhaps I'm missing something but if I have Skype why is game or party chat important?
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