aaronspink
Veteran
Alternative distribution to optical disks : SSD, cards, and download*
- Thread starter Cheezdoodles
- Start date
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Thanks, that's one of the pieces of the puzzle I was looking for... BRD versus DD is an interesting proposition when it comes to media, especially as there are 2 distinct markets. Sales and Rentals.
What's interesting is that most analysts are predicting that BRD will at some point surpass DVD in marketshare, that's a given as DVD is a legacy format now. But the interesting thing is that those same analysts project that BRD will never surpass or approach the market penetration that DVD had due to the impact of digital distribution.
While the percentages vary analysts expect BRD will attain ~50-75% of the penetration that DVD had. And that assuming nothing changes (that's the important key) BRD will dominate the sales category while VOD (digital) will dominate the rental category.
One explanation for the slow adoption of sell through for DD is that it is often 25-50% MORE expensive than the optical disks due to retailers heavily discounting BRDs at the point of sale while DD sales are forbidden from being discounted by the publishers due to Retail establisment pressure.
Hmmm, seems awfully familiar to how Gamestop and other retailers are desperately trying to prevent PC game sales from moving to digital.
Anyway, some interesting numbers to follow... All original numbers are sourced from DEG (like the link you posted).
http://hollywoodinhidef.com/2010/07/blu-ray-grows-112-through-june/
The only link I found in a quick search that includes both rental and sales numbers.
BRD for the first half of 2010 had 982 million USD combined sales and rental. 733 million USD was due to sales while the rest is rental, 249 million USD.
Digital for the first half of 2010 had 1.1 billion USD combined. 285 million USD for sales with rental (VOD) coming in at 865 million USD.
Here's where it gets interesting as we see rental move increasingly to DD while sales move increasingly to BRD. The following are full 2010 numbers versus the half year numbers of the link above.
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118029848?refCatId=13
That shows BRD sales at 1.8 billion USD as does your link.
But it also shows that VOD (digital rental) also grew to 1.8 billion USD.
The only thing we don't know is BRD rental revenue but a forum poster (pro-BRD poster) at Hi-Def Digest posted BRD sales at 1.8 billion and rental at 500 million.
That puts BRD combined revenue at 2.3 billion USD and DD combined revenue at 2.48 billion for 2010. It's slowly closing the gap but still hasn't managed to pass up DD revenue.
You are correct that when adding in DVD, optical media greatly exceeds DD. However, DVD is a dying distribution media while both BRD and DD are the future. Thus any loss in DVD share will end up going to either BRD or DD. And so far it's split relatively evenly with the majority of revenue still going to DD.
Of course, one has to wonder what would happen if publishers were no longer restricted by retailers from selling DD at a discount from MSRP as retailers can do with retail copies.
Higher price (when compared to retail sale pricing) combined with uncertainty about longevity of the DD sellthrough (especially with DRM concerns of being able to play it on multiple devices) certainly hinders DD sellthrough. Which is why a console system absolutely needs to be tied to a user's account versus the hardware console. And why any remnants of the current retailer 1 game = 1 media paradigm will greatly restrict growth and increase overall prices to the consumer.
However, those same sellthrough concerns aren't a factor when renting, which is why DD rentals continue to skyrocket.
So as stated before. If the same trend continues where retailers continue to dictate pricing of DD sellthrough, then we'll continue to see the majority of sellthrough dollars going to BRD while the majority of rental dollars get shifted to VOD.
One final word. Going by the DEG numbers we're both using as a source. More people watch digital content than BRD content. A 15 or 20 USD BRD could support 5-6 viewings of a movie over VOD. The same goes for BRD rentals, but BRD rentals is less than a third of VOD. That's potentially 2-3 times as many people watching digital content.
I suspect BRD will finally surpass DD next year due to the whole sellthrough pricing schenanigans. But that more people will continue to watch DD than BRD.
Regards,
SB
corduroygt
Banned
That DD revenue includes hotels, PPV, and cable/sat boxes which is a huge industry and you can't really have live sports and events like WWF and UFC broadcast any other way. Theactual movie rentals from iTunes, PSN, Zune, etc combined are only around $300M and there are far more iOS devices, smartphones, and consoles compared to Blu-ray players. Not to mention that is SD + HD combined. If you add DVD to Blu-ray sales, which you should, since the current discussion is about eliminating an optical drive in a console, it's around $16-17B.
I very much doubt that includes pay per view events. UFC is around 300m on its own for its pay per view. And I'm sure it doesn't include netflix subscriber fees as they had revenue over $2 billion.
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specwarGP2
Regular
What does that have to do with the superior selection on BD vs netflix?
If they werent BD sales what were they then
Huh? I don't even know what you're trying to say here.
If they werent BD sales what were they then
DVD sales. Why do you think they started putting a DVD in every blu-ray package, they were feeling generous?
specwarGP2
Regular
"Well where you can get netflix, blu-ray is losing by 50 or 100 to 1"
was your response to this:
"The Blu-Ray selection easily beats any streaming servce i can access."
What does netflix better performance (according to you) have anything to do with the BDs better selection?
You are making up scenarios that dont exist. Why would anyone buy the more expensive BD/DVD combo if they didnt want the BD?
oh that's you not following the discussion. netflix has more titles than blu-ray... however where tkf lives, there is no netflix so maybe for him blu-ray does have better selection than DD options, I just know that's not true here.
using your logic, why would people want the DVD when they have a blu-ray player?
The inclusion of the DVD was a carrot to spur sales, because adoption was slow. Some people might just be buying it as future proofing, other people because they see DVD and figure it doesn't matter. And its not always true that the combo pack is more money than the DVD. With some titles, the DVD isn't always available at the same time. (not talking specifically about Avatar on the last couple points)
Don't forget Alpha that many times the bluray /dvd/dd combo is cheaper than the stand alone dvd option
Sometimes its just $5 or so more.
Alice in wonderland came out last week and was $22 on bluray. Disney had a $10 coupon for it so it was just $12 and it came with a dvd and DD the last time it was released on dvd was last year and it was from an older clean up of the film.
The first week of next month they are releasing bambi on bluray with the same coupon . Bestbuy will have it for $22 while the dvd is $18 . With the coupon that only works on bluray its cheaper than the dvd and comes with the dvd and bluray.
Its not hard to see why people will choose the bluray over the dvd version. Even if you discount the bluray as an extra for many who have dvd players and pcs or portable devices the DD makes a very valid add in as it can be viewed on many devices. So for those even without bluray discs the $5 or $8 more over the dvd edition it would still be worth more for some than the dvd.
They are adding in value to the bluray disc because the bluray verison wont sell as well without it.
Sometimes its just $5 or so more.
Alice in wonderland came out last week and was $22 on bluray. Disney had a $10 coupon for it so it was just $12 and it came with a dvd and DD the last time it was released on dvd was last year and it was from an older clean up of the film.
The first week of next month they are releasing bambi on bluray with the same coupon . Bestbuy will have it for $22 while the dvd is $18 . With the coupon that only works on bluray its cheaper than the dvd and comes with the dvd and bluray.
Its not hard to see why people will choose the bluray over the dvd version. Even if you discount the bluray as an extra for many who have dvd players and pcs or portable devices the DD makes a very valid add in as it can be viewed on many devices. So for those even without bluray discs the $5 or $8 more over the dvd edition it would still be worth more for some than the dvd.
They are adding in value to the bluray disc because the bluray verison wont sell as well without it.
corduroygt
Banned
It includes both, call DEG @ 424-248-381 and ask them if you don't believe me. Anything you buy/rent through your cable/satellite box is included in those numbers.
Netflix is also included, divided up between DVD rentals, Blu-ray rentals, and streaming. Of course DVD rentals is the majority of that, even Netflix admits to it.
I'd love to see where netflix admits that, and do not link me something from 2 years ago before their streaming unlimited plan existed. And there is still no way it includes all pay per view which is higher than that value by itself, you are mistaken.
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corduroygt
Banned
Here's the Netflix argument:
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...-a70c91251131/Q410 Letter to shareholders.pdf
End of 2010 and streaming only new signups are one third with the 20 million existing customers not really switching to streaming only = most netflix memberships are Disc plans.
Here's the PPV argument, this was from 2007 but you can assume modest growth. Overall, about $800M-$1B of 2010 VOD revenue is special events. Your blind blu-ray hate makes you think that PPV is a multibillion dollar industry where it isn't.
http://www.fighting-mma.com/mma-news/ufc-pay-per-view.php
corduroygt
Banned
How did you figure that? Total VOD is 2.5B in that report. About 800M-1B is for ppv events. About $680M is EST (all sources combined) and the rest is movie rentals through cable set top boxes, itunes, PSN, etc. combined. Netflix revenue is distributed via an estimate towards both digital and optical rentals.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
I'm guessing they don't include Porn, or that number for digital would probably be far far far higher than DVD. 
Regards,
SB
Regards,
SB
specwarGP2
Regular
Huh? I own a netflix account and the streaming selection sucks. All older movies and most of them are SD. The only thing its good for is watching TV episodes.
You questioned Avatar's BD sales, so dont bring up other titles. Avatar was sold as a standalone DVD and more expensive BD/DVD combo.
Is your answer to my question "Why would anyone buy the more expensive BD/DVD combo if they didnt want the BD?"
...because they see the DVD and figure it doesnt matter?
corduroygt
Banned
I'm guessing they don't include Porn, or that number for digital would probably be far far far higher than DVD.
Regards,
SB
LOL, I doubt how much of that's actually paid though, I'm sure free stuff grossly outnumbers paid stuff, and since porn studios lack the clout of movie studios, it's hard for them to enforce their copyrights.
netflix has more titles than blu-ray, yes or no? If all people wanted to do was watch movies that were newly released, they'd just rent right? because after you've seen it, its not new anymore. At no time have I ever seen a movie and thought, wow thank god that movie was in HD or it would have sucked. Higher quality is nice, but it won't make a bad movie good.
And TV shows are content.
It's relevant if not specifically to avatar.
AlphaWolf said:
2 discs for a few $ more probably seems like a better value to some people as well. Hell maybe even some of them buy just for the lower profile packaging. I know the DVD isn't in the box out of generosity, perhaps the movie companies can answer your question.
Totally true, porn on dvd is dead, it's all gone dd.
