MasterDisaster
Regular
400 K ps3 in USA, 100 K ps3 in Japan at launch
- Thread starter MasterDisaster
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Some more info on the PS3 launch...
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3785&Itemid=2
Similar to MS, air-freight will likely cost a fortune.
80/20 in favor of the $600 option. Seems like Sony read our B3D poll.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3785&Itemid=2
Similar to MS, air-freight will likely cost a fortune.
80/20 in favor of the $600 option. Seems like Sony read our B3D poll.
Oh ho! By January? Take that and try to get to 6M by end of March (even if they just got put on the boat on March 31st).
Let's see, what would a reasonable looking ramp look like, starting Oct 1, and incorporating both 400k in NA stores in mid-November and 100k in Japan, and January as the first month at 1.2M.
Oct - 400k (I'm assuming its still giong to take a couple weeks to spread them around to stores once they arrive).
Nov - 600k
Dec - 800k
Jan - 1.2M
Feb - 1.2M
Mar - 1.2M
So, 5.4M in the bestest possible, "no, really, the diodes thing is fixed and assembly ramping will go just peachy and we'll hit our secret internal ramping max target rather than the old conservative public one that was 200k less per month" case?
There are two different "1.2M" in play here, aren't there? One being a monthly production target, and the other being total units to NA by end of December?
Actually, does the "1.2M to NA by end of December" include the initial 400k, or is in addition to it?
As far as I can understand the article linked by J_Saint, there'll be 1.2 million units total by the end of December in the US. Plus in January the total monthly production will be ramped up to 1.2 million.
So that would make the march number. 1.2 million (US end of december) + 3*1.2 (monthly production total by January) + 100.000 K (launch number Japan) + 1.2 million avaiable in J by march.
= max. 6.1 million units by end of March according to the article. But the 1.2 million monthly number and the 1.2 million in Japan are bound to overlap. So it's probably somewhere between 5 and 6 million.
If everything goes according to plan.
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Cool. That looks like enuf granularity and specificity to work with going forward on the "how did they do at hitting their own targets?" front.
Gradthrawn
Veteran
I remember comments from SCE in regards to this after the US PS2 launch and how exorbitantly expensive it was. Try as hard as they might, they can't seem to avoid launch delays and problems, no matter what lessons they've learned. Nature of the beast, I guess.
Where's my god-damn free PS3 then?
Actually I thought about it and I think I can give a better estimate. Mind you, this is based on the assumption that the distribution of units between US and Japan stays the same which is a conservative estimate as shipping units to Japan is cheaper than air-lifting them to the US, i.e. the percentage of units being on sale by end of december is likely higher than this estimate. But anyway.
400.000 US vs 100.000 J -> 20% of produced units allocated to Japan.
additional 800.000 US units -> 160.000 in Japan
Thus 1.2 million + 260.000 units = 1.46 million by end of December
+ 3*1.2 million = 5.06 million
To get to 6 million units number -> Both the US and J need to have 1.2 million each by the end of December.
All those estimates are based on the article, of course.
400.000 US vs 100.000 J -> 20% of produced units allocated to Japan.
additional 800.000 US units -> 160.000 in Japan
Thus 1.2 million + 260.000 units = 1.46 million by end of December
+ 3*1.2 million = 5.06 million
To get to 6 million units number -> Both the US and J need to have 1.2 million each by the end of December.
All those estimates are based on the article, of course.
Lets see if these numbers make any sense from the various reports released in the last two weeks.
Launch
US: 400K (+ 800K through EOY)
Japan: 100K (+ 1.1M through EOY)
End of Year
US: 1.2M total
Japan: 1.2M total
US gets more units up front but overall will be a 50/50 split between regions with 2.4M shipped in total.
Monthly rate of 1.2M would put Sony at 6 million units by the end of March 2007 going by their plans discussed with various sources.
Sources:
2.4 seems a little high for "slightly above" 2 million but I'm sure those numbers aren't very precise right now. Also, keep in mind that any more delays will likely flush these estimates down the toilet.
Launch
US: 400K (+ 800K through EOY)
Japan: 100K (+ 1.1M through EOY)
End of Year
US: 1.2M total
Japan: 1.2M total
US gets more units up front but overall will be a 50/50 split between regions with 2.4M shipped in total.
Monthly rate of 1.2M would put Sony at 6 million units by the end of March 2007 going by their plans discussed with various sources.
Sources:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aTMHrm8415zU
http://www.forbes.com/technology/feeds/afx/2006/09/06/afx2995529.html
2.4 seems a little high for "slightly above" 2 million but I'm sure those numbers aren't very precise right now. Also, keep in mind that any more delays will likely flush these estimates down the toilet.
I am slowly getting used to the delay here in Europe, but when I see Sony are expecting around 2 mill. units in Japan and US by the end of 2006, why couldn't Sony delay the PS3 in Europe by a month to December and sending say 500k units over here and divide the rest 1,5 mill units between US and Japan? It would still be good launch number compared to PS2 launch. I just can't understand why they need 4 months delay in Europe, especially when Sony said that the diode problem will set them back about one month in production capacity.
I suspect that this comes down to the fact that they have to beat their great satan (HD-DVD) in the markets with the biggest HDTV presence. Remember that the BDA's chief spokesperson always cited the PS3. PS3 is their lone hope, the studios are expectant.
Jawed
Legend
My Sony contact this weekend told me that the latest devkit, 1040, is still as fuck-off huge, noisy and utterly unreliable (one day to get one actually up and running from unboxing) as ever. And rare as hen's teeth, with only first-party devs getting a decent supply.
He expects more stuff to be cut before release. I grilled him pretty hard about this (not specific features, just the fact of it), because I'd fully bought into the blue diode problem as the last hurdle.
He does reckon that the November JP/US release will happen, by hook or by crook, though.
Jawed
He expects more stuff to be cut before release. I grilled him pretty hard about this (not specific features, just the fact of it), because I'd fully bought into the blue diode problem as the last hurdle.
He does reckon that the November JP/US release will happen, by hook or by crook, though.
Jawed
Avon_Implosion
Newcomer
he suspects another PS3 downgrade? Or he suspects a slash in launch shipments?
Jawed
Legend
He threw his hands up in horror and said the whole thing is still such a shambles that he doesn't know how it's going to work. He just has faith that Sony will get something out there.
This (major) third party has had its order for 50 devkits pushed back to the end of October. What does that tell you? They've got 10 at the moment, spread incredibly thinly.
I really needed a tape recorder
Jawed
This (major) third party has had its order for 50 devkits pushed back to the end of October. What does that tell you? They've got 10 at the moment, spread incredibly thinly.
I really needed a tape recorder
Jawed
I haven't read the whole thread so this may have been answered already but I assume it isn't since you just asked it.
I personally think that when the head honchos at SCEI realised they wouldn't be able to deliver 2 million at launch they scrapped the world wide launch altogether. I believe that not even SCEE knew about it until September 6. It was a late call but it makes perfect sense if you think about it.
If you can't make enough units for a sucessful world wide launch, which market do you target? The North American market of course! Why? There's where the xbox 360 is strong (only 1,3 million 360's in EU since launch but 4-5 million in NA) and there's where the HD-DVD is strongest. The 100 thousand units for Japan is merely a paper launch for political reasons. It's in NA where the battle stands this Christmas, both 360 Vs PS3 and HD-DVD Vs Blu-Ray. The PS2 and PSP is still going strong in EU and with 1 million PS3 units reserved for PS3 launch in EU in Mars-07 together with a at that time unprecedented launch line up of games I think it will be more than a match against xbox 360 which isn't too strong in EU at the moment. Even if xbox 360 sells a couple of million units in EU this Christmas I think Sony pretty easy will catch up there. Remember EU is Sonyland, just look at what happened when the PSP launched 9 months later than Japan (EU is the fastest selling territory of PSP's)
Personally I hate this (I'm from EU) but I do think this is the right move for Sony under the circumstances.
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Avon_Implosion
Newcomer
thats upsettingHe threw his hands up in horror and said the whole thing is still such a shambles that he doesn't know how it's going to work. He just has faith that Sony will get something out there.
This (major) third party has had its order for 50 devkits pushed back to the end of October. What does that tell you? They've got 10 at the moment, spread incredibly thinly.
I really needed a tape recorder
Jawed