400 K ps3 in USA, 100 K ps3 in Japan at launch

[bleon]

Am I the only one who thinks the whole "blue diode" thing is BS?

I also think its BS, but for a different reason: Sony want to have a paper launch in Japan and divert almost all their PS3 units to the US, even the replenishment units. Strategically this is the best thing they could do, since they have the Japanese market to themselves anyway. Even if Wii does well in Japan, Sony will still retain their japanese userbase in the long run. The 100,000/400,000 split announcement is just a way of saying to the japanese..."dont expect to be able to buy a PS3 for a long time". Whilst the Japanese are out of PS3's, Sony is busy squashing MS in the only territory where they have a decent foothold. Like nipping them in the bud before they grow stronger.

I believe Sony never intended to launch in Spring 2006 either, it was just to give the impression that this uber console was right around the corner. These kind of white lies don't bother me, I've never bought a console at launch and never will.

 

[Geo]

Well i guess it takes a month or so to put a different plug on the Euro PS3s. Oh and get the consoles right to the shops on horse-trailed carriages, with all these narrow roads and kids running around, won't be easy...

Well, the last minute increase of peak capacity from 1m to 1.2m/month certainly has an aroma to it of "working the equation backwards from what the answer has to be", and those famously fail to materialize in the end. A 20% increase is considerable, and it would be interesting to know where that's coming from. Did they add another shift to a factory somewhere?

 

[Arwin]

Well, the last minute increase of peak capacity from 1m to 1.2m/month certainly has an aroma to it of "working the equation backwards from what the answer has to be", and those famously fail to materialize in the end. A 20% increase is considerable, and it would be interesting to know where that's coming from. Did they add another shift to a factory somewhere?

In the IGN article he says that internally they were aiming at 7.5 million by March '07, so that they had some leeway in case something went wrong.

 

[expletive]

Well, the last minute increase of peak capacity from 1m to 1.2m/month certainly has an aroma to it of "working the equation backwards from what the answer has to be", and those famously fail to materialize in the end.

Actually, I don't know which aroma is stronger, the conspicuous peak capacity increase or the "our internal target was always 7.5 million" statement.

EDIT:Or is that both ends of the same statement...

 

[Geo]

In the IGN article he says that internally they were aiming at 7.5 million by March '07, so that they had some leeway in case something went wrong.

Ahhhh, so 1.2m/month was always the peak capacity they were shooting for. Of course, now they are assuming they can actually hit it. . . Well, anyway, like I said, not quite as bad as I was thinking yesterday morning anyway, but they do seem to have been pushed right to the "okay, everything has to go just right from now on" point to make their numbers.

 

[expletive]

Ahhhh, so 1.2m/month was always the peak capacity they were shooting for.

I'm not seeing how the late-to-the-party "super secret internal target" validates the work-backwards-from-x capacity numbers...

 

[scooby_dooby]

So their 'internal target' was 7.5million in a mere 5 1/2 months? That's crazy, has anyone ever pulled off such numbers? I thought 6million was overly optimistic...

 

[avaya]

So their 'internal target' was 7.5million in a mere 5 1/2 months? That's crazy, has anyone ever pulled off such numbers? I thought 6million was overly optimistic...

That's no where out of the realms of all possibility but it's highly optimistic and depends on everything going without a hitch. They certainly had the manufacturing capability and resources to have done it but IMO demand would have tapered off at 6mn, at these prices, as elasticity begins to affect the curve past 4mn.

 

[Geo]

I'm not seeing how the late-to-the-party "super secret internal target" validates the work-backwards-from-x capacity numbers...

It would depend on when that "super secret internal target" first existed. Yesterday, or 6 months ago?

Edit: Assuming they were going to start in early September, now lost, and giving them credit for what gets put on the boat on March 31st, still over a month from market, then you have 7x1.2m, or 8.4m. September went bye-bye, so now we're at 7.2m. Presumably the other 1.2M are lost to the ramping from 0 to 1.2m/month. Except of course its going to be more than that. As I said, I'm not buying the 6M still. But given the uglyness of 2M I was staring at at one point yesterday. . .

 

[Sethamin]

I also think its BS, but for a different reason: Sony want to have a paper launch in Japan and divert almost all their PS3 units to the US, even the replenishment units. Strategically this is the best thing they could do, since they have the Japanese market to themselves anyway. Even if Wii does well in Japan, Sony will still retain their japanese userbase in the long run. The 100,000/400,000 split announcement is just a way of saying to the japanese..."dont expect to be able to buy a PS3 for a long time". Whilst the Japanese are out of PS3's, Sony is busy squashing MS in the only territory where they have a decent foothold. Like nipping them in the bud before they grow stronger.

I can see the logic, but I somewhat disagree. They are targeting North America because it's the largest and next closest market, not because MS is strongest there. I think MS will do well there regardless of Sony. I actually think Europe is the "battleground" this generation in terms of market share and installed base. Xbox did decent numbers there last generation, and MS has the potential to really put up some great growth numbers there.

I also think they shortchanged Japan because it's so close to China and Taiwan and thus very quick and easy to get shipments there. North America is obviously more difficult, and you can forget about Europe. It's all about the supply chain. It takes a long time for the boats to get where they're going and, as others have already pointed out, airlifting is simply not a cost-effective option.

 

[RobertR1]

At a best case of 30% yields following nichia for 6million consoles that's 4,200,000 diodes that go in the dumpster. I have strong doubts about Sony "fixing" anything.......We'll see.

 

[Mortimer]

So. How long has Sony stockpiled to get these 500k diodes and how they think they can get over twice that number per month one month later?

They have 3M cells and they have been stockpiling them for a long time (they've said that, don't remember when I first heard they started stockpiling them) and they might be getting good yields now after this much time in production. Over 1M per month though? Or maybe they could but have stopped manufacturing them while waiting for the diodes.

And those diodes have been in production for a long time since the players have been on the market for a while and they really haven't used that much diodes. I think there are less that 200k players altogether sold. If they have stockpiled all production of diodes since sping (when first Blu-Ray players came on market) that's only 100k diodes per month.

It just doesn't add up methinks.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Considering their delay tactics so far, I have to take all promises with regards to increase production with a large grain of salt.

This could easily be yet another delay tactic to convince people to hold out a few more months. I really see no reason to give them any benefit of the doubt at this point, they don't deserve it.

 

[Crossbar]

According to Nikkei Tech-on,
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/NEWS/20060906/120881/

Thanks one!!! Interesting information.

The google translation of this article spits out among some hilarious translations this snippet of information.

For graphic processing LSI “RSX” and the southern bridge IC which is produced with 90nm process, also the RF controller IC “savanna” for Blu-ray being favorable, when it is the prospect that several 1,000,000 within year can be guaranteed insecurity around was cleared.

The part in italic seems to indicate that the RSX and southbridge are indeed separate ICs, there have been discussions in this board raising the possibility they may have been integrated.

Perhaps one could confirm that google hasn't messed up the translation?

 

[Johnny Awesome]

This is a huge disaster on an epic scale for Sony. They'll be lucky to get 4 million out by the end of March and MS will probably have 11 million units out by then and a price drop just waiting for the end of Sony's production woes. What's more is that MGS, FF, and GT won't even be around the corner and MS will ship Halo 3 before any of those games even hit. MS will lose in Japan, but winning in NA is almost assured for them now. Europe is still up in the air with the advantage with MS right now IMO.

 

[Siraris]

Good to see that one linked to that Nikkei article, as it provided a lot of interesting information. 3 million cells are already manufactured, which is great, so that means that the Blu-Ray issues are the only thing holding it up.

I don't think Japan will only get 100k units. You have to remember that the PS3 is manufactured in Japan, and mainland China, and it's a lot easier to get from Japan to Japan or China to Japan, than to get from China or Japan to the US or the EU. I bet Japan launches with 200k units, and then gets an extremely steady stream of systems after that. The US will launch with 400k or so, and continue to get resupplies as well.

The Europe delay is the biggest thing to me. Let me start off by saying that none of us have any room to comment on this, as we have absolutely no idea what the logistics are of launching a console anywhere on the planet, let alone across the planet. IT's a downside to the internet that we are so "informed" yet we really don't know the whole story. That being said, it would be crazy to launch in Europe with 100 or 200k units. I mean what, England would get 50k, France would get 30, Germany would get 60, you know? What kind of launch would that be? On the other hand, would that be a good idea? We all know that the PS3 is going to sell out, and the average consumer has no clue the logistics of things. The UK could get 40 PS3's at one store, sell out, and people will only know that the PS3 sold out.

It feels like there is more than meets the eye here. Launching that huge ad campaign in Europe a day before this announcement, all the talk by Sony European execs, and now this? It's just really fishy. I almost want to say that Microsoft is paying Sony to do this

 

[hey69]

latest figures tell MS has sold till august 2.4 million xbox360 in the us. so make that 4million globaly, how do you expect them to sell 11 mil by march next year??

Month PS2 Xbox Xbox 360
Oct 391,245
Nov 187,554 772,117 326,000
Dec 522,239 699,597 281,441
Jan 248,052 127,939 249,000
Feb 233,223 139,12 161,000
Mar 546,572 136,388 192,000
Apr 329,014 78,142 295,381
May 281,881 228,914 221,000
Jun 343,631 264,618 277,000
Jul 351,935 154,204 206,000
Aug 321,774 137,277 204,000
3,757,120 2,738,319 2,412,822

 

[El Leone]

Well, at least they'll be able to reach about 6 Million units by Xmas or so..

 

[ninzel]

I've had a thought about the PS3 launch. The 360 launching 1 year earlier pushed PS3 up one year. If MS had launched at year 5 as is traditional, Sony would have waited until Xmas 07 to launch. I don't beleive Sony ever had any intention to launch earlier this year or this year at all.

 

[Crayon]

After the PS2 launch, I swore I'd never kill again.

Looks like I'll have to break that promise if I want a PS3 on launch day. Tell your loved ones the stay teh **c* out of my way.