3D Gaming*

[Scott_Arm]

But think of how long it took for HDTV channels to take hold? HDTV has been around for a pretty long time, and it's only been the past two years that it's really started to take off. I can't imagine the majority of those people that just bought tvs will be ready to buy a new one in two years.

Maybe 3D games will help push the TVs, like they helped push HDTV this gen. But I think it will be next gen when the consoles are designed around 3D that the big push happens.

 

[patsu]

It will take some time, but they have to start somewhere. Some people may perceive resolution and 3D differently. I value a high res video of my kid and a 3D video of him differently. Actually, some can't see 3D at all. ^_^

The concept of "Next Gen Console" is changing. I don't see why they need to wait if the broader industry is ready to go. They still have a lot to learn (Need mature 3D SDK). If PS3 can handle it, then they should start the R&D now.

EDIT: I'll be disappointed if they don't include user generated 3D content on PS3 (or PSP2 !) in a year or two. Praying for only a slight premium.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If they include 3D regardless of whether you want it or not...

I suppose that's what's different between 3D and other formats. Similar to BRD in PS3, where people who bought the machine for games ended up trying some HD movies, anyone with a 3D enabled set is going to try 3D at some point. I have a pair of Sainsbury's Channel 4 3D glasses on my desk here just to see an attempt at 3D; both Sainsbury's and Channel 4 thought it worth the effort/interest.

In this case, it would behoove Sony to create some PS3/BRD demos. "You've bought a new TV? Did you know you could watch 3D on it? Try this free download!" And I guess in that respect, anyone thinking about adding 3D to a new game could consider the potential 3D market as any TV sold in the past x years since 3D became ubiquitous. Over the next year, it's quite plausible a good million+ 3D capable TVs will be sold. I dare say a lot of those could be attached to PS3's, or will be attached to a PS3 when said owners learn that it offers 3D games and movies.

My opinion is fairly changed. I no longer consider it the lost cause as I did!

 

[patsu]

It is a high risk venture, not unlike Arc and Natal. Keep that in mind. ^_^ (May be this is an extended part of Arc, I have no idea).

 

[Scott_Arm]

But what about the 60-70 million people that already own PS3s and Xbox360s with HDTVs(potentially)? How many of them are going to upgrade their TV just to get 3D? How many more PS3 and 360 units will be sold before the market is saturated?

 

[Crossbar]

To be honest, I think the trickle down will take a while. I think it'll be longer than two years, and most likely double that. HDTV has been very slow. I don't think the mass market replaces their tv every couple of years.

2 years is a pretty long time when it comes to CE products. The bleeding edge TV I bought last year is almost half the price this year if I look at the feature set of the current TV line up. I am pretty sure 3D will be available at a good price two years from now.

Will the mass market replace their TV every couple of years? Hell no, the majority is still on SDTV for heavens sake.

They don´t have blu-ray for that matter either, but 3D may actually be a feature that will add more tangeable appeal to blu-ray over DVD in the long run, so the desire may be there but the large uptake will take many years.

 

[patsu]

... not to mention 1 out of those 60 million people is already hunting for a 3D monitor. Speaking for myself here. Take your time !

A portion of the population has old DLP that may be 3D ready, or some old, non-standard HDTV that they may not mind replacing.

EDIT: The other way to think about this is: If they wait longer, the same people will still need to find a 3D TV/monitor later. More will join the group unless the vendors transit HDTV to 3D ready ones asap.

 

[ERP]

Since a lot of solutions seem to be converging on active glasses (at least in the short term) I suspect that 3D ready displays will be ubiquitous long before there is any real use of them.
The cost of the glasses is going to have to come down dramatically for it to be mainstream, even if the displays are out there.

As an aside I was intrigued by NVidia's 3D surround demo at CES, I'm a huge surround gaming fan, it adds way more to the immersion in a game than you might think. I just ordered a 22 inch Viewsonic monitor with the NVision kit for my PC. I'll order 2 more if I like the effect and NVidia ship driver with Surround support.

 

[patsu]

If you believe the cable and satellite operators, "real use" start as soon as this June, or as late as 2011.

I am curious why News doesn't get mentioned as a 3D source. I think live 3D coverage on riot, war (Hi Osama !), parties, Olympics, F1, blah... may be interesting too. They are almost like user-generated content to me.

EDIT: Eh... News probably generates peanuts compared to Sports and Entertainment.

 

[ERP]

They cn broadcast in 3D as much as they want, but whose going to pay $100 a piece for every viewer to equip them with active glasses?
Even at half that price I think it's a stretch for most households.

 

[patsu]

I see. You're saying despite real use cases, the glasses may be too expensive to buy now. That I agree. That's why I hope they drop the price fast (like Blu-ray).

 

[MfA]

Since a lot of solutions seem to be converging on active glasses (at least in the short term) I suspect that 3D ready displays will be ubiquitous long before there is any real use of them.
The cost of the glasses is going to have to come down dramatically for it to be mainstream, even if the displays are out there.

Some plastic, some polarizing film, four pieces of patterned ITO glass, some spacer beads, liquid crystals and a couple of dimes worth of electronics ... I don't think that will take long.

Sony might put some heavy crypto into a proprietary sync link to prevent clone glasses ... but I doubt everyone is going to play that game (I hope not).

 

[sebbbi]

It is a high risk venture, not unlike Arc and Natal. Keep that in mind. ^_^ (May be this is an extended part of Arc, I have no idea).

Current consoles support stereoscopic 3d without problems. Avatar and few other titles do it already on both consoles (using existing standard SDKs and hardware - nothing console specific is needed). I as a graphics programmer do not see that big risk of supporting stereo 3d in our future games (if stereo suits the game). Stereo 3d can be supported with just minor modifications to the graphics engine (no need to change any content). If the technology fails on mainstream, there already is a small enthusiast group of DLP projector (and HDTV) owners who can benefit from the 3d support. And the buzz around the game's 3d support will drive up the sales and hype enough to warrant spending 2-3 weeks to program the feature.

If Sony is adding support for the console SDK to make it easier for the developers to support 3d it's even better for us. Currently there are so many competing 3d formats that supporting/testing all of them takes considerable amount of time. If the SDK would hide the stereo encoding details under the hood, it would be easier for game developers to support stereo rendering. Additionally if the stereo encoding is done by the console SDK, instead of the game, it's easy to upgrade the console firmware to support new stereo 3d standards in the future.

I doubt Sony is taking any large risks by adding the stereo support for their HDTVs. Stereo support basically means you need a synchronization port in back of the TV to give the glasses the signal. If they use the standard existing port design, it's really simple, and I doubt it takes more than a few extra bucks to add it. Sony TVs are already rendering at 120hz and beyond, and adding the stereo decoding support to the software should not be that big deal (it is just simple pixel filtering from image). And several other HDTV manufacturers have already announced their 240/480hz new led backlit HDTVs with stereo 3d support. It is a huge risk if Sony doesn't have the stereo 3d support in their highest end TVs and all their major competitors have.

 

[patsu]

I doubt Sony is taking any large risks by adding the stereo support for their HDTVs.

They did a lot more than adding stereo support to Bravia. ^_^

They seem to be ramping up LCD capacity via Sharp to compete against Samsung. That is understandable (business as usual). But I am surprised they are that aggressive with the 3D TV channels. They also rushed the 3D Blu-ray specs last Fall. I heard they are forcing 3D tech into the next Spiderman movie (The director walked), and they probably lined up even more 3D movies. Now most TV manufacturers are gunning for 3D.

The 3D PS3 game prototyping occurs right in the middle of an Arc development cycle. It may be disruptive to the core team and first parties. The money spent in producing and marketing 3D can be used on Arc (unless they are one and the same). I can't help but wonder if Kutaragi waited for HDMI 1.3a because of the added bandwidth.

The existing 3D enthusiast base is relatively small. Sony has to forecast substantial growth to make everything worthwhile. This is not an existing, prevalent/pent-up problem. It is a new need/desire. It's a little like leaping into your future while packing your parachute at the same time. May be surveys and forecasts help, but it looks like a lot of money and sweat to me.

 

[V3]

PS3 was going to have dual HDMI before the 1.3, my guess is it was for the extra bandwidth rather than the dual screen they were making fuss about back then. Kutaragi was blabbering about 120 Hz back then too.

I was looking at some benchmark from NVIDIA 3D Vision, it seems games took 40+% hit in performance going 3D. How will PS3 cope with such hit in performance? Or are the performance hit is just the non-optimise PC side of things?

 

[Neb]

Maybe it has to render each frame ~twice in 3D vision mode. IIRC it can also eb enabled for any non 3D optimised game so it is done on the fly or something like that.

 

[Quaz51]

i tested Bravia 3D 52LX900 with PS3
very good TV. Motorstrom2 S3D video is really spectacular (but oversampled pre-rendering i think, very good IQ)

 

[SG79]

I see. You're saying despite real use cases, the glasses may be too expensive to buy now.

It's the mere requirement of the use of any type of glasses that has me scratching my head. Are there enough people out there who don't mind that? It certainly has nothing to do with looking "goofy" or anything, but the comfort itself. I've been wearing glasses since 2006 and absolutely hate it. If you asked me to wear another pair on top, I'd laugh it off.

Seems to me that CE companies are simply jumping the gun with this one to finance R&D on the real deal. Right now, it just seems too fast when regular HDTV penetration is nowhere near 100% (something they've been struggling with for years). One thing at a time.

This isn't a mere resolution jump introduced with mass produced 1080p screen in 2006 alongside BD and then-HD-DVD. It's a major evolution and its start is yawn worthy sadly.

 

[grandmaster]

Hands-on report plus tons of comment from the R&D team will be up on Eurogamer/DF tomorrow. Then a 5,000 word one-on-one interview (sometimes meandering a bit into more of a discussion!) sometime next week. It's a fascinating insight not just into the 3D process but also into the cooperation between different Sony divisions.

 

[ERP]

It's the mere requirement of the use of any type of glasses that has me scratching my head.

I don't think it's an issue per se. As long as the glasses are none intrusive, i.e. don't fuck up my vision when I go to get a snack etc, and dirt cheap.
The problem is that currently it's not the case, I think that polarized glasses probably are probably the best scenario, but that adds significant cost to the display.

I suspect the sudden push for 3D is a function of it being close to 0 cost for the manufacturers to add it to the display, because 120Hz plus panels are becoming the norm with or without 3D.

Lenticular displays are probably 5+yrs away from being cheap enough and high enough quality for household TV.