2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll >January 2007ed

[TheChefO]

The summer 2006 version of this poll painted an interesting picture of forum opinion:

Sony 40% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 20% 17 12.14%
Sony 40% Microsoft 20% Nintendo 40% 11 7.86%
Sony 20% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 40% 4 2.86%
Sony 50% Microsoft 25% Nintendo 25% 50 35.71%
Sony 25% Microsoft 50% Nintendo 25% 7 5.00%
Sony 25% Microsoft 25% Nintendo 50% 5 3.57%
Sony 30% Microsoft 30% Nintendo 40% 9 6.43%
Sony 30% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 30% 8 5.71%
Sony 40% Microsoft 30% Nintendo 30% 18 12.86%
Sony 33% Microsoft 33% Nintendo 33%

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=31388&highlight=2010

Based on quite a few factors that are brewing this generation, I think we may be in for the closest market split since the days of snes/genesis.

PS3
Demand for the Playstation brand is huge with a 100million+ gamers onboard last gen. They could repeat that success but there are some factors which must be considered.
Price - The console is launching at a much higher pricepoint than has been accepted in the past and they have not announced a core version, so the likelihood of meeting the same pricepoints that both playstations launched with anytime soon is very slim.
Games - They don't have the familiar franchise games that have captivated gamers on ps2 available at launch. Historicly they have had the lions share of variety quality and quantity of games. If they can keep the same ps2 fire burning, they should continue to be the place to find variety.
Timeframe - They are coming to market 1 year after the xbox360 has been on the shelf for a year and is likely to have sold 10million units by the time PS3 hits the market. This is in stark contrast with ps2 which launched 1 year before Gamecube and Xbox last gen.
Extras - Bluray inclusion could either be a huge gain if they dominate the next gen media war or an ancor driving the base the cost up, ditto with the standard inclusion of hdd. Computer functionality could be a selling point if they can get the proper software support.


Wii
Coming hot off the questionable name announcement, Nintendo breezed through e3 with praise from all corners of the media. The anticipation based on their e3 showing is high.
Price - Not officially known but should come in between $250 and $200. This is in-line with their recent historical pricing for console launches and shouldn't be an issue.
Games - Nintendo has not announced the release dates of their fan favorite franchises but they look to have one of the best launch libraries in history. How the library will grow from that point is questionable but they seem to be gaining support and should at least see more variety/quantity than Gamecube did.
Timeframe - They are launching neck and neck with PS3 but one year after xbox360. This is roughly the same situation they found themselves in last gen by launching a year after the first next gen machine but also launching alongside the another.
Extras - They are including minimal additional features aside from the Wii controller which is the fundamental draw of this machine. The virtual console effort should prove useful for gamers interested in retro/classic gaming.


Xbox 360
Microsoft launched a year early and has since followed ps2's successull footsteps very closely. They have learned much from their fierce competitor and have put that knowledge to work in 360.
Price - A move which most questioned was having two sku's. One which went for the high-end market and the other which has accessories to match ps2 in functionality but with next gen games. By having the barebones system available and owning 100% of the design, they have cost control measures to ensure competitive pricing now and down the road.
Games - By securing availability of one of the most popular franchises last gen they have gone to great measures to level the playing field. Along with their other exclusive franchises both up-and-coming (Gears of War) and tried and true (Halo3), Microsoft looks poised to expand their library internally and through 3rd party.
Timeframe - As Sony proved last gen, "the early bird gets the worm". In Microsofts case, by launching a year ahead of their rivals they look poised to secure 10 million worms before either Sony or Nintendo hit the market. If ps2 is anything to go by this could prove huge for them.
Extras - Minimal extras are included but there are many available. Dvd playing out of the box is yet another ps2 feature they have taken note of and included standard.



Given the above pros/cons for each system when blended together in the same market will give us an interesting mix of gaming options.

My bet is on a 33% split equal across the board.

Looking at the current landscape I thought it would be good to get an overall pulse of our forum members to see how your opinions may or may not have changed.

Personally > Sony 20% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 40%

Wii is having phenominal success right now with no signs of slowing and 360 seems to have a solid roadmap for success as well. PS3 on the other hand isn't doing as well as most hoped.

 

[liolio]

i voted, 33% / 33% / 33%

I think the 360 will do well druing is all life.
The Wii start really strong but I guess will slow down in the end.
And Sony will do better in the end with BR, and may be slightly better games technicaly.

Anyway Sony case is criticaln they to push out AAA games before fall 2007, and their sales will take off in 2008 when the price will be low, but I put a lot on emphasis on brand fidelity in my guesstimation because when the ps3 will become affordable the wii and the 360 will have been affordable for quiet a long time.

 

[TheChefO]

i voted, 33% / 33% / 33%

I think the 360 will do well druing is all life.
The Wii start really strong but I guess will slow down in the end.
And Sony will do better in the end with BR, and may be slightly better games technicaly.

Anyway Sony case is criticaln they to push out AAA games before fall 2007, and their sales will take off in 2008 when the price will be low, but I put a lot on emphasis on brand fidelity in my guesstimation because when the ps3 will become affordable the wii and the 360 will have been affordable for quiet a long time.

Agreed - Ps3 does have a shot at healthy sales when it gets to the $200-300 mark. Only problem is by that time I think Wii/360 will have established themselves as market leaders (depending on your region). Software selection will follow userbase lead. If ps3 had clearly superior tech (ie xbox to ps2) I could see them pulling sales late in it's life cycle as people would want the multiplat games that looks best. However I don't see there being a big enough difference in tech between ps3 and 360 to warrant this trend.

If Sony is unable to produce a AAA killer app by the end of the year, I think they will be sitting on around 20% by 2010. These sales based on brand loyalty/bluray/1st party exclusives.

 

[Paul_G]

I voted Sony 30% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 30%. My reasoning is as follows

PS3

Demand is still great, but the price is holding it back. I don't buy that Sony won't cut the cost sooner rather than later, I think they know as well as we do (Or at least those who choose to believe it) that PS3 isn't selling as well as anticipated and I think that the same will happen after the Euro launch. That said, I think any price drop will come too late. I personally buy into the theory that the first to a certain point begins a snowball effect that is hard to stop, and, powerful as the PlayStation brand is, i don't think it's so powerful as to stop MS building an unassailable lead. I think that sales of the PS3 will be good, but a lack of truly outstanding 1st party software in 2007 will hurt it and make catching the 360 impossible.

360

The 360 has just come off a very successful Christmas period. They hit their target of 10 million shipped, and i think their estimate for 13-15m by summer is pretty much on target. There just isn't much that MS is doing wrong right now, they have a nice 2007 lineup, they have a lot of interesting new features and i expect more will come. Also I think the release of the PS3 has done MS a favour. It's now out, people can finally see for themselves what the fuss is about, and I believe, as is always the case with something new, the experience won't match the expectation. Some who had been holding out for the PS3, high price be damned, will see that what you're getting, at least for the moment, isn't worth the premium you pay and will either wait, slowing the sales of the PS3, or get a 360/Wii instead, further putting a gap between the PS3 and 360.

Wii

I think the Wii will continue to sell strongly until the Summer, but the drought of games that is usual in that period, plus the novelty wearing off a bit will mean that the Wii won't regain its previous momentum. I think that the sales will be solid, if not spectacular, and it will exceed the sales of the PS3 until end of 2008, when Sony will cut the entry price to under $300/£200 and sales will take off. I don't see anything inherently wrong with the Nintendo strategy at the moment, i just think the appeal of the Wii won't last forever and once it's 'normal' it won't seem so special any more. I also think that developers won't exploit the control system enough - especially 3rd parties, and lets not forget that a lack of decent 3rd party software is what many have felt has held previous Nintendo consoles back.



Based on these comments, I think the 360 will do best this generation, though it will be the most even war for several generations, which is both a good and bad thing. I think Sony will eventually take second place, but only by virtue of the fact that it's expected to remain on shelves well into the life of its successor, and because Wii's simple hardware will mean a backward compatible Wii2, launched in 2010/11 is quite possible at little cost to Nintendo, however I don't think it will pass the Wii until after 2010.

 

[avaya]

A year ago I would have said Sony 60-70% and the other two to fight over the crumbs.

Today I say Wii will change everything.

Nintendo will be leader, 50% at least for Wii - orthogonal to the "next-gen" market - it is strong in all three major territories. Looking likely to be rather phenomenal in Japan when new Touch Generations!-for-Wii software lands if it hasn't already (WiiSports).

Microsoft is only strong in North America, major PAL audience outside of the UK is not enthusiastic and they were DOA in Japan. However current PS3 position leads me to believe they could really claw out quite a gap in North America and probably stand a chance at parity in Europe. I don't know if Japanese PS3 sales will be sufficient since the country tends to pick a winning horse early and rally behind it and that horse looks to be the Wii.

Sony is in all sorts of trouble in Japan. I don't know what the hell they are going to have to do there. Price cuts alone won't be enough, the whole PlayStation brand needs revitalisation faced with the new Nintendo paradigm shift.

North America seems lost to 360 now and Wii too, I can't see how Sony can turn this around.

Europe is 50-50. They could still pull out a strong winning hand here but the price is all sorts of wrong. Wii probably the favourite here again.

 

[infinity4]

i would be personally surprised if $250 Wii fails to beat $400 360 and $600 PS3 in terms of sales. it may not have best games, but their marketing strategies seem to work like a charm. Many non-gamers are interested in Wii and its sales charts are already looking optimistic.

For microsoft side i reckon they will do OK and have high potential to gain 10-20% more market share from last gen. they have exclusives and games that attracts mainstream market, and their pricing is very competitive compared to PS3. In addition they have best online service IMO, and i do think online is important because more people have access to broadband internet. The only market that will let down will be japan, because most japanese people enjoy JRPGs and 360 lacks them. BD and LO will gain some sort of penetration, but only for short period of time.

As for PS3, it just came out, i would be surprised to see PS3 ending up with market share of 20%-29%. They should end up earning higher share than 360 if japanese devs keep supporting PS3 and keep 360 dead in japan, because Japanese market is second biggest in the world.

edit: can't find nintendo 40% sony 35% microsoft 25%, so voted 4:3:3

 

[TheChefO]

... because Japanese market is second biggest in the world.

Actually Japan is ranked 3rd (sales wise)

 

[infinity4]

Actually Japan is ranked 3rd (sales wise)

as a country i am talking about. US 1st, Japan 2nd, UK third (a third of european market)

 

["Nerve-Damage"]

Hum, what about the PS2 factor

You guy’s must have forgotten about the PS2!?

Because, that system is still selling like hot cakes. Sony market share isn’t going to dwindle down overnight (30-40%) or even for the next year or so if the PS2 is still selling strong along side the PS3. By then Sony will have probably reduced the PS3 price, making it more acceptable for those casual gamers.

 

[Rangers]

Yeah, it wasn't lost on me the first time you ran this poll that the choice where Sony had the highest possible share (out of the options you gave) won out overwhelmimgly.

B3D still seems overwhelmingly PS3 territory. Even though 360 and arguably especially Wii sell better. If you look at the topics at the top any particular day most seem to deal with PS3 or it's games. I guess it's to be expected, as B3D has a technical bent and PS3 has the most exotic technologies.

It's hard for me to predict WW market share because the 360 is shut out in Japan and somewhat in EU. I fell fairly comfortable predicting 360 almost has it won in the states (over PS3, at least) for example, but not so for WW market share.

Time is an unusually large factor this gen also. PS3 needs time more than any other system, and time will also tell a lot on Wii, whether the experience has longevity.

So in essence, I will think about it in more detail and answer this post again later

 

[PARANOiA]

The 360 is just too far ahead, and maintaining higher sales rates to not be in front by the end. I don't think it'll be a landslide, but it'll be a cosy "victory".

However, the real victory will be the customer, since Sony will hopefully get a taste of humble pie, and stop telling me that I need to work harder, and learn discipline, in order to have a PS3.

 

[Rangers]

The 360 is just too far ahead, and maintaining higher sales rates to not be in front by the end. I don't think it'll be a landslide, but it'll be a cosy "victory".

Compared to what? At present trends the Wii will almost certainy overtake the 360 worldwide. Remember, 360 is shut out in Japan, where Wii can sell millions there. Once you start tallying up world market share, that makes it very hard for 360 to win. Even PS3 that has suffered from poor Japanese sales so far, will at least have some numbers from Japan to rely on.

Also, 360 gets some resistance in Europe too. It'll be tough to beat the Wii there (that is, IF the wii holds up it's sales...). But it might have a decent shot at topping the PS3 in EU, anyway.

Your comment is basically correct, if one looks at the USA only..360 has a good chance to win the USA.

 

[stuff80]

We really don't know how the wii will trend going foward. What are the big titles through summer that will keep people buying ? Mario was pushed back to fall . All we have are a bunch of mini games and metriod . Will that be enough to continue moving units in the states once the hype dies down ?

How will the 360's first price drop , its large amount of exclusives , its large amount of ports and of course halo 3 affect its market share ?

 

[Capeta]

I think it's safe to say that Nintendo will have the lead by 2010. By that time I think MS will still be 2nd and SONY 3rd.

Nintendo 45%
MS 35%
SONY 20%

 

[JasonLD]

It is definitely much harder to predict since Wii has become such a smash hit and probably not many people predicted that. While I don't doubt that Wii will become successful product, but it is kinda hard to predict its longetivity. I can see 360/PS3 lasting 5+ years, but for Wii, not quite yet. If I exclude Wii into this whole equation, then I can see 360 pulling Genesis while PS3 doing SNES(360 pulling ahead in early years, but PS3 having strong finish).

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

The problem with Wii are the games. Nintendo just needs to make sure there will be coming out some good quality games in the next 6 months. I've had a wii since the EU launch but the only game im playing is zelda and the only interresting game coming out in the next few months is SSX. Wii has the hype and the potential but it needs games.

If wii gets the games I see a good chance of nintendo turning up in the second or first place. The biggest problem with making a prediction is the ps3 I think. It wont sell at 500/600 euro but in terms of games I still preffer whats going to be out on ps3 above on whats going to be out on x360 (lots of western type games). And I think that goes for alot of people.

So untill we know what the price of the ps3 will do and what the games of the wii will do I'll go for 33/33/33.

If the ps3 drops in price quicly to something like 300/400 and Wii gets the games it needs than I'll see nintendo on top, ps3 second and ms 3rd. But still within decent margins of each other. Well, maybe except for the Wii if it really manages to get gaming to the masses.

 

[TheChefO]

I think it's safe to say that Nintendo will have the lead by 2010. By that time I think MS will still be 2nd and SONY 3rd.

Nintendo 45%
MS 35%
SONY 20%

I think the wildcard will be how well Nintendo can keep the hype rolling. I can see them easily continuing this hot streak into next Christmas and probably doing well in Christmas 2008. After that it's a bit more difficult to guage how important HD visuals will be to the average consumer and how MS/Sony choose to counter Wii.

If MS or Sony choose to emulate Wii success by coming up with their own wiimote and PACKAGE it with their system(s) it may steal some of wii's thunder in the later years. I figure this tactic would have limited success for MS or Sony in actual software/hardware sales for them but I think the bigger impact would be on stealing Wii's thunder and hype in that regard.

As it is now, I think the initial sales of Wii over the next couple years will amount to enough to keep them close to the top spot by 2010. Afterall - substantial early success guarantees software availability and this will ultimately lead to a successful console.

 

[dobwal]

You know if you take

((Sum of all the ((% of console "X") * votes for that respective category))/total number of votes)

you get

360=32%
PS3=34%
Wii=34%

 

[TheChefO]

You know if you take

((Sum of all the ((% of console "X") * votes for that respective category))/total number of votes)

you get

360=32%
PS3=34%
Wii=34%

veeerrryy interesting ... Thanks Dobwal

I'm curious to see how this poll ends up.

I'll follow it up with a new version every 6 months to track how accurate we are/were.

 

[TheChefO]

I guess it's to be expected, as B3D has a technical bent and PS3 has the most exotic CPU.

Fixed


fyi - the point of this poll is to give the board your position on how you think this market will be shaped by 2010. I will rerun the poll every 6 months so adjustments in opinion can be accounted for but at this point - members - I want to hear your input on where this gen is going and why.:smile: