2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll > 2007 Summer Ed.

[TheChefO]

January's edition showed b3d opinion had swayed a bit from 6 months prior.
2007 Winter

Sony 40% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 20% 4 4.40%
Sony 40% Microsoft 20% Nintendo 40% 8 8.79%
Sony 20% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 40% 14 15.38%
Sony 50% Microsoft 25% Nintendo 25% 14 15.38%
Sony 25% Microsoft 50% Nintendo 25% 3 3.30%
Sony 25% Microsoft 25% Nintendo 50% 5 5.49%
Sony 30% Microsoft 30% Nintendo 40% 12 13.19%
Sony 30% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 30% 17 18.68%
Sony 40% Microsoft 30% Nintendo 30% 9 9.89%
Sony 33% Microsoft 33% Nintendo 33% 5 5.49%

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=37965&highlight=2010

2006 Summer

Sony 40% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 20% 17 12.14%
Sony 40% Microsoft 20% Nintendo 40% 11 7.86%
Sony 20% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 40% 4 2.86%
Sony 50% Microsoft 25% Nintendo 25% 50 35.71%
Sony 25% Microsoft 50% Nintendo 25% 7 5.00%
Sony 25% Microsoft 25% Nintendo 50% 5 3.57%
Sony 30% Microsoft 30% Nintendo 40% 9 6.43%
Sony 30% Microsoft 40% Nintendo 30% 8 5.71%
Sony 40% Microsoft 30% Nintendo 30% 18 12.86%
Sony 33% Microsoft 33% Nintendo 33%

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=31388&highlight=2010

My original thoughts on this gen:

Based on quite a few factors that are brewing this generation, I think we may be in for the closest market split since the days of snes/genesis.

PS3
Demand for the Playstation brand is huge with a 100million+ gamers onboard last gen. They could repeat that success but there are some factors which must be considered.
Price - The console is launching at a much higher pricepoint than has been accepted in the past and they have not announced a core version, so the likelihood of meeting the same pricepoints that both playstations launched with anytime soon is very slim.
Games - They don't have the familiar franchise games that have captivated gamers on ps2 available at launch. Historicly they have had the lions share of variety quality and quantity of games. If they can keep the same ps2 fire burning, they should continue to be the place to find variety.
Timeframe - They are coming to market 1 year after the xbox360 has been on the shelf for a year and is likely to have sold 10million units by the time PS3 hits the market. This is in stark contrast with ps2 which launched 1 year before Gamecube and Xbox last gen.
Extras - Bluray inclusion could either be a huge gain if they dominate the next gen media war or an ancor driving the base the cost up, ditto with the standard inclusion of hdd. Computer functionality could be a selling point if they can get the proper software support.


Wii
Coming hot off the questionable name announcement, Nintendo breezed through e3 with praise from all corners of the media. The anticipation based on their e3 showing is high.
Price - Not officially known but should come in between $250 and $200. This is in-line with their recent historical pricing for console launches and shouldn't be an issue.
Games - Nintendo has not announced the release dates of their fan favorite franchises but they look to have one of the best launch libraries in history. How the library will grow from that point is questionable but they seem to be gaining support and should at least see more variety/quantity than Gamecube did.
Timeframe - They are launching neck and neck with PS3 but one year after xbox360. This is roughly the same situation they found themselves in last gen by launching a year after the first next gen machine but also launching alongside the another.
Extras - They are including minimal additional features aside from the Wii controller which is the fundamental draw of this machine. The virtual console effort should prove useful for gamers interested in retro/classic gaming.


Xbox 360
Microsoft launched a year early and has since followed ps2's successull footsteps very closely. They have learned much from their fierce competitor and have put that knowledge to work in 360.
Price - A move which most questioned was having two sku's. One which went for the high-end market and the other which has accessories to match ps2 in functionality but with next gen games. By having the barebones system available and owning 100% of the design, they have cost control measures to ensure competitive pricing now and down the road.
Games - By securing availability of one of the most popular franchises last gen they have gone to great measures to level the playing field. Along with their other exclusive franchises both up-and-coming (Gears of War) and tried and true (Halo3), Microsoft looks poised to expand their library internally and through 3rd party.
Timeframe - As Sony proved last gen, "the early bird gets the worm". In Microsofts case, by launching a year ahead of their rivals they look poised to secure 10 million worms before either Sony or Nintendo hit the market. If ps2 is anything to go by this could prove huge for them.
Extras - Minimal extras are included but there are many available. Dvd playing out of the box is yet another ps2 feature they have taken note of and included standard.



Given the above pros/cons for each system when blended together in the same market will give us an interesting mix of gaming options.

My bet is on a 33% split equal across the board.

I'm sticking with my January prediction ... maybe skewing a bit in favor of Wii.

Wii 40%
xb360 38%
ps3 22%

 

[infinity4]

i can't find SCE 20 MS 30 Nintendo 50, so went for 25/25/50. but this is based on what we have today, stamina of consoles i don't know.

 

[TheChefO]

stamina of consoles i don't know.

Indeed that is a questionmark. That's why my predicted Wii percentage is "low".

 

[TheChefO]

Interesting ...

A year ago we had 50 people (the most popular choice @ 35%) vote for ps3 50% marketshare by 2010. Many in the poll requesting the option to vote for a higher percentage as 50% didn't due the machine justice.

...fastforward a year and ...

{crickets}

 

[Skrying]

20/40/40

Mainly because by 2010 I think the Wii have ran out of steam and its market share will slide as Xbox 360 continues to grow, it will be very cheap by that time frame. I'm putting it out right now that I don't think the PS3 will really pick up this generation, sales will be better than they are now (of course) but I simply don't believe they'll ever match the Xbox 360.

 

[Todd33]

Interesting ...

A year ago we had 50 people (the most popular choice @ 35%) vote for ps3 50% marketshare by 2010. Many in the poll requesting the option to vote for a higher percentage as 50% didn't due the machine justice.

...fastforward a year and ...

{crickets}

 

[Skrying]

Upset by the truth?

 

[TheChefO]

Why the eyeroll?

Click the link on the original poll. Some really interesting posts in there Todd. :smile:

 

[Duck Dodgers]

I think these sorts of threads are more about celebrating the current status quo more than anything else.
But extrapolating current trends to project market share 3 years from now is a little silly. It's too early in the game as the dust hasn't even settled yet.

Ps3 will be a late bloomer, especially once developers start using the SPU's as the "real" processor with the PPU as an aside and programming accordingly.
I seriously doubt PS3 growth will stay the same once it become more affordable and software becomes more advanced and HD becomes more mainstream.

It will be a close race.

 

[pc999]

I think it will be 22,5/32,5/45.

 

[TheChefO]

I think these sorts of threads are more about celebrating the current status quo more than anything else.
But extrapolating current trends to project market share 3 years from now is a little silly. It's too early in the game as the dust hasn't even settled yet.

Ps3 will be a late bloomer, especially once developers start using the SPU's as the "real" processor with the PPU as an aside and programming accordingly.
I seriously doubt PS3 growth will stay the same once it become more affordable and software becomes more advanced and HD becomes more mainstream.

It will be a close race.

Interesting.

Were you here for the original poll? At the time there was no "status quo" to celebrate as the other two had not launched yet and xb360 sales weren't exactly record setting.

As for whether the poll/thread is silly or not is a matter of opinion. Personally I think it's fun/interesting.

As for your "close race" comment, I agreed a year ago even though it was quite an unpopular theory (see poll results).
I agree ps3 sales will pickup when AAA titles are released and the price hits mainstream. However I don't feel these factors will be enough to create marketshare parity at this point.

My original marketshare theory was based on the assumption ps3 sales would be strong for the first 6 months in the US and Japan hitting pretty close to their 6 mill mark. After this point I figured the market would have dried up for a $500-600 console and the next wave would come later in 2007 when they could afford a price drop.

Current sales data caused me to adjust my theory though along with games announcements which came after the original poll (summer 2006).

 

[Rangers]

About the only question left in my mind is if Wii will last or, it doesn't and 360 overtakes it in USA/possibly Europe.

I suppose PS3 has a glimmer, maybe if the games start looking significantly better than 360 titles, and the price drops to 299-399, and people really dont hate the machine like I'm beginning to think, and all those PS2 owners really are just waiting to buy a new playstation as Rein says, it could take off in a big way, which would be surprising to me.

 

[Paul_G]

Last time around, I voted 30/40/30. Today I have voted 20/40/40. Here are my thoughts from before:

PS3

Demand is still great, but the price is holding it back. I don't buy that Sony won't cut the cost sooner rather than later, I think they know as well as we do (Or at least those who choose to believe it) that PS3 isn't selling as well as anticipated and I think that the same will happen after the Euro launch. That said, I think any price drop will come too late. I personally buy into the theory that the first to a certain point begins a snowball effect that is hard to stop, and, powerful as the PlayStation brand is, i don't think it's so powerful as to stop MS building an unassailable lead. I think that sales of the PS3 will be good, but a lack of truly outstanding 1st party software in 2007 will hurt it and make catching the 360 impossible.

360

The 360 has just come off a very successful Christmas period. They hit their target of 10 million shipped, and i think their estimate for 13-15m by summer is pretty much on target. There just isn't much that MS is doing wrong right now, they have a nice 2007 lineup, they have a lot of interesting new features and i expect more will come. Also I think the release of the PS3 has done MS a favour. It's now out, people can finally see for themselves what the fuss is about, and I believe, as is always the case with something new, the experience won't match the expectation. Some who had been holding out for the PS3, high price be damned, will see that what you're getting, at least for the moment, isn't worth the premium you pay and will either wait, slowing the sales of the PS3, or get a 360/Wii instead, further putting a gap between the PS3 and 360.

Wii

I think the Wii will continue to sell strongly until the Summer, but the drought of games that is usual in that period, plus the novelty wearing off a bit will mean that the Wii won't regain its previous momentum. I think that the sales will be solid, if not spectacular, and it will exceed the sales of the PS3 until end of 2008, when Sony will cut the entry price to under $300/£200 and sales will take off. I don't see anything inherently wrong with the Nintendo strategy at the moment, i just think the appeal of the Wii won't last forever and once it's 'normal' it won't seem so special any more. I also think that developers won't exploit the control system enough - especially 3rd parties, and lets not forget that a lack of decent 3rd party software is what many have felt has held previous Nintendo consoles back.



Based on these comments, I think the 360 will do best this generation, though it will be the most even war for several generations, which is both a good and bad thing. I think Sony will eventually take second place, but only by virtue of the fact that it's expected to remain on shelves well into the life of its successor, and because Wii's simple hardware will mean a backward compatible Wii2, launched in 2010/11 is quite possible at little cost to Nintendo, however I don't think it will pass the Wii until after 2010

I haven't changed my opinion of the 360 particularly. However I have to take into account the continuing success of the Wii and the continuing decline in sales of the PS3. I personally believe while the PS3 will pick up and continue to be a viable platform to develop for, it won't enjoy the sort of success required to overhaul either the Wii or 360, and will instead carve out a market of around 20%. As for Wii, i stick by my longer term belief that it will be the first to see a decline - i do recognize however that my comments from January about stagnating sales are unlikely to come true, what with it continuing to be supply limited. When it will slow, i have no idea, i suppose it depends on if they can keep the way the Wiimote is used fresh.

I understand the point Duck is trying to make, that it's too early to tell and maybe it is, but the point of these threads is to build a sort of definite trend and history of what we collectively and individually think will happen in the next 3 years or so. I do have to disagree with him though regarding it being a close race. It will be, but PS3 won't be a part of it.

 

[TheChefO]

About the only question left in my mind is if Wii will last or, it doesn't and 360 overtakes it in USA/possibly Europe.

I suppose PS3 has a glimmer, maybe if the games start looking significantly better than 360 titles, and the price drops to 299-399, and people really dont hate the machine like I'm beginning to think, and all those PS2 owners really are just waiting to buy a new playstation as Rein says, it could take off in a big way, which would be surprising to me.

Personally, I think this generation will really be defined by the outcome of this holiday's sales. If Wii dominates heavily (as it's doing currently) I think this will carry through until 2010 with xb360 and ps3 picking up the rear.

If PS3 achieves sales parity even if only for the last two months of the year, I think they will have a shot at parity by 2010.

xb360 domination this year would signify the end of the honeymoon period for Wii and the begining of the battle between ps3 and xb360 which at that point would be pretty one sided.

I don't think any of the above are likely as all three will likely sell relatively equal numbers this holiday shopping period with Wii getting the edge, xb360 picking up second, and ps3 slightly trailing IMO.

This assumes expected minimal price adjustments.

 

[thatdude90210]

I think it will be 22,5/32,5/45.

I would vote for this one, if there was such an option.

 

[NovemberMike]

Though Id like to change it to more like 45/35/15. I think PS3 and 360 will split fairly evenly, with PS3 getting the edge, but Wii won't do so hot.

From the 2006 thread...

Wow, I am just glad I wasn't around back then to make an ass of myself. Amazing how things have changed since then.

 

[TheChefO]

A few quotes from a year ago:

I think the best scenario for Microsoft migh be Wii taking down the PS3 in Japan, while MS tag teams them in EU/USA. This would eliminate some sort of PS3 safe base in Japan. Strategically speaking.

It will be fun to see what happens for sure. Truly a fascinating console cycle.

Sony has their own issues to deal with, the one I think matters the least is the launch price. Is everyone poor? I don't think so. Certainly there is an enormous percentage of the population that would never spend $600 on a console- but there are easily six million on the face of Earth that will- and largely do so with a smile on their face as they walk out of the store.

Sony has to deal with Nintendo in Japan- that is a serious threat. I think in a realistic fashion they are safe. The only potential N has for reclaiming the throne in their home market is if they can manage to land DQ as an exclusive- not likely.

If MS manages to hit 10Million before the PS3 launches it means little in the end despite what they may think. Sony outsold MS by more then that on a global basis each year of this generation since the XB launched.

you miss Sony 65% Microsoft 25% Nintendo 10%

I see Sony still up there with way over 60%, MS & Nintendo sharing the rest.

ms - need more good exclusive games theyre repeating the same mistakes of the xbox1

 

[Paul_G]

A few quotes from a year ago:

Would you be able to say who wrote those things? I don't want to name names to make them look bad or anything, but it's just interesting to know where various people stood compared to now

 

[TheChefO]

Would you be able to say who wrote those things? I don't want to name names to make them look bad or anything, but it's just interesting to know where various people stood compared to now

Well, I'm not going to name names, but you can click the link at the top of the thread and read through the old quotes from the 2006 prediction poll thread. I enjoy that kind of stuff and find it interesting too. :smile:

 

[Paul_G]

Well, I'm not going to name names, but you can click the link at the top of the thread and read through the old quotes from the 2006 prediction poll thread. I enjoy that kind of stuff and find it interesting too. :smile:

I'm lazy, that's all